EVs cross 55% in China in August 2024

[R!TTER]

That's the indeterminate future - battery storage or power supply through secondary/tertiary sources has not been proven at such a scale which China/India needs.

 

Right and you said commissioned coal power plants, although coal is the dirtiest, in general I'm talking about all fossil fuel power plants. And as far as I'm aware no one's done any study on the real carbon footprint of a Tesla running million miles on the "cleanest" fossil fuel powered power plant out there.

 

Net zero what? If you're talking about carbon credits or how "green" renewable energy is there's already a massive scam running for decades -

 

 

I'd love to move away from fossil fuels but jut hopping on green energy bandwagon is not the way to go! You know what saves most power? Energy efficiency - make BLDC fans/motors mandatory, make 5 star rated A/C, washing machines, refrigerator, TV(?) & other home appliances mandatory! And yes we need to lower power consumption, especially when there's massive wastage in many of those places. Completely ban plastic bags & make canvas/jute or any reusable ones compulsory. There's so much that can be done without having to go towards adding more power gen capacity.

Edited March 17, 2025 by R!TTER

[randomGuy]

It is proven already iirc. 

 

Also, I don't think you have fully processed 356GW of solar+wind in 1 year. China is a doer. It doesn't talk much, lets the actions do the talking.

 

For context, India's total installed non renewable is arnd 250 GW (452-203) 

 

"As of November 2024, India's total installed electricity generation capacity is 452.69 GW, with 203.18 GW coming from renewable sources, representing 46.3% of the total capacity. "

 

It is a done deal. solar, wind, batteries is the present and the future.

[R!TTER]

You're talking about athat scale as if it means anything - China consumed roughly 2.5x10^4 GW (25.27 terawatt-hours) per day back in 2023, and that number has only increased since then.

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/302203/china-electricity-consumption

 

This is the current storage capacity for energy worldwide -

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1560707/forecast-energy-storage-capacity-worldwide/

 

You ideally need to have 10 - 20% of spare capacity (power gen) for peak hours. So basically China would need to have 1.5-2.5x of the projected global capacity themselves, that (global) number btw also includes China. And that (battery) backup, if I'm not wrong, is for one hour!

 

And remember I'm only talking about the spare capacity for peak hours, in order to replace their entire grid they would need to spend literally trillions on batteries/power plants/distribution and shutting down thermal plants which employ millions directly or indirectly.

 

For some reason you're just hyper focused on that single number of added capacity, in a year, while ignoring almost everything else! Like for instance do you know China is the biggest producer of coal in the world?

Edited March 17, 2025 by R!TTER

[randomGuy]

4 minutes ago, R!TTER said:

You're talking about athat scale as if it means anything - China consumed roughly 2.5x10^4 GW (25.27 terawatt-hours) per day back in 2023, and that number has only increased since then.

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/302203/china-electricity-consumption

 

This is the current storage capacity for energy worldwide -

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1560707/forecast-energy-storage-capacity-worldwide/

 

You ideally need to have 10 - 20% of spare capacity (power gen) for peak hours. So basically China would need to have 1.5-2.5x of the projected global capacity themselves, that (global) number btw also includes China. And remember I'm only talking about the spare capacity for peak hours, in order to replace their entire grid they would need to spend literally trillions on batteries/power plants/distribution and shutting down thermal plants which employ millions directly or indirectly.

 

For some reason you're just hyper focused on that single number of added capacity, in a year, while ignoring almost everything else! Like for instance do you know China is the biggest producer of coal in the world?

China, Elon Musk etc. are investing in battery storage farms for renewables. It is a proven tech for day time requirements, for peak summer-winter requirements. The mathematics etc. has all been figured out for ex. How much battery storage, GW capacity needed for peak hours consumption etc.

 

From 2023, china iirc nearly doubled solar, wind production to 356 GW in 2024. So,

 

- Momentum is there 

- Resolve is there to eliminate air pollution and limit climate change.

- Cost advantages are there (cents per kWh etc)

 

The only hindrance is the investments stuck in dirty energy. That's not a big deal for china.

 

[R!TTER]

2 minutes ago, randomGuy said:

It is a proven tech for day time requirements, for peak summer-winter requirements.

No it's not, find me a decent sized city which is completely on battery+renewables.

[randomGuy]

21 minutes ago, R!TTER said:

No it's not, find me a decent sized city which is completely on battery+renewables.

As per my understanding grids provide energy to several cities/state(s)/region. I think cities will continue to be connected to grids. The grids will implement the battery storage to bigger extent  rather than the cities. It will be a mix.

 

I have some data on battery storage at grid sites for solar,wind.

 

battery storage for solar,wind is the newest trend for the future with big capacities being built by tesla, catl etc as we speak. 

 

 

Edited March 17, 2025 by randomGuy

[crictime]

9 hours ago, R!TTER said:

By doing what, shifting the pollution to power plants? Looks like the EV fanclub doesn't realize where electricity actually comes from! China's making more coal fired plants than ever & India's doing roughly the same, although renewable push is also there. To go to full EV you can't even imagine the load you'll eventually have on power plants, the vast majority of which are based on coal.

Auto manufacturers will not go full on EV production mode as the costs are still high and hence there will not be so much demand that the transition is going to happen even after 15 years.Customers arw just not there in huge numbers but they are certainly there. The number of plants have to increase and companies won't do capex in new plants until they get operational efficiency in production from current plants. So full EV is out of question imo in 15 years minimum.Meanwhile the load on grid and other things are probably being looked and some solutions or optimal strategy may evolve.The petrol vehicles will remain.It is just that the percentage of EV vehicles will keep on increasing gradually and replace quite a decent percentage of the market share of fuel based automobiles.For example, 1 in 5 cars sold in 2023 were EV. In few years  there will be 2 EV cars sold out of 5.Its not going to be 5 of 5. The Oil producing nations and OPEC, OPEC+ will also have their say in this transition. Gradual progression in transition has been witnessed thus far. No more no less.The transition is a reality as is seen in overall sales percentage of EV's.

[crictime]

One major drawback of EV is related to Lithium and critical mineral mining.There are reported issues wherein chinese controlled operations in regions of Africa are under scrutiny.The people have to go down the hole and many have died while fetching the minerals required.Also the daily wages that they are being given are peanuts considering there is fear in family members that the man may die and not return home from work.Also the extracted Lithium is not in huge quantities and that again limits the amount paid to the workers.It is a very high cost production considering various factors involved.Like the prices of storage cells have gone down significantly, we can hope some day the prices of Lithium too will see further decline.

 

The loss of Human life is the most serious issue. Hopefully there will stringent policies enforced related to the safety protocols and welfare of the workers.

[R!TTER]

The solution to less pollution/better health, which I assume is one of the big drivers towards EV, is actually more public transport & yes better efficiency - like I said about more efficient electrical/electronic products. This western construct that more cars = better life/economy is just total BS even now. Take Japan, & to a much lesser extent China, for example probably having some of the best public transport systems out there & they're still investing in it. The thing I hate most in India, after the unchecked corruption, is having to spend hours in traffic jams 

 

It's relatively easy to take care of if the govts paid attention & more importantly if enough people thought of travelling by them!

[crictime]

14 minutes ago, R!TTER said:

The solution to less pollution/better health, which I assume is one of the big drivers towards EV, is actually more public transport & yes better efficiency - like I said about more efficient electrical/electronic products. This western construct that more cars = better life/economy is just total BS even now. Take Japan, & to a much lesser extent China, for example probably having some of the best public transport systems out there & they're still investing in it. The thing I hate most in India, after the unchecked corruption, is having to spend hours in traffic jams 

 

It's relatively easy to take care of if the govts paid attention & more importantly if enough people thought of travelling by them!

Very good point related to improvement in service in public transport which would mean that more people would opt for public transport. The overhead  metro networks which habe been completed have helped reduce pollution as well.Every state/city should look to have more metro railways which are faster and reduce traffic as well as pollution, not to mention the obvious reduction in travel time as well. 

[randomGuy]

Byd recently announced 10c charging, which is like 450-500 km range in 5 min charging. I asked grok 3 for 80% ev penetration in china by fitting data into s curve, it says late 2027 but I think it will be end of 2026.

 

"Conclusion

 

With BYD’s 10C charging, EV sales in China are expected to exceed 80% around late 2027, roughly 1.5-2 years sooner than without this tech. This assumes gradual station deployment and sustained consumer uptake. For a curve, plot: 2020 (4.8%), 2022 (22%), 2024 (47.9%), 2025 (60%), 2027 (77%), 2028 (83%), smoothing into an S-shape. Let me know if you need more detail!"