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Haryana & J&K Elections

Singh bling

By Singh bling
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G_B_ Grand Master

G_B_

Posted
Posted

Not anomalies per say but the margins are thin.

 

In northern maharashtra banning onion exports impacted. There was farm distress in May. Post monsoon there is anger but less anger.

 

Mumbai 36 seats a lot depends on turnout. If it's like 60% then bjp will do well and improve its ls tally. If it's nearer to 50% expect Mva to do well. Mumbai has been having monsoons lately and if they continue I can see Uddhav benefitting from a lower turnout. If weather is pleasant then Bjp might gain on better middle class representation.

 

Lots of twists and matters of fate in a tight contest.

diga Grand Master

diga

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, coffee_rules said:

Hudda ji ka khella dekho

No wonder Congress ki gali wali ben was going around predicting 15-20 seats to BJP

 

Fooling a pappu .. :whack2:

 

Who is this gali wali ben?

randomGuy Grand Master

randomGuy

Posted
Posted
34 minutes ago, G_B_ said:

Apparently ec says that television channels start showing leads based on their exit polls on counting day before the counting starts

 

Truly terrible. 

They start showing leads even before postal ballots are opened or counted.

 

You are our guy for Maharashtra elections, to give us regular opinion polls. Hopefully not like the ones which Hooda gave to Rahul Gandhi. :cantstop:

G_B_ Grand Master

G_B_

Posted
Posted
On 10/15/2024 at 2:42 PM, randomGuy said:

They start showing leads even before postal ballots are opened or counted.

 

You are our guy for Maharashtra elections, to give us regular opinion polls. Hopefully not like the ones which Hooda gave to Rahul Gandhi. :cantstop:

I can't predict maharashtra for **** lol. It's so difficult. 

 

Only thing I can say is that 55% is the turnout barrier nda needs to win majority of seats in mumbai. Below 50% mva advantage.  50 to 55 it will depend on turnout seat by seat.

 

If bjp wants to win it needs to stop congress in viderbha. It's as simple. Viderbha is cong vs bjp.

G_B_ Grand Master

G_B_

Posted
Posted

One interesting thing i notice is that polling agencies routinely get the number of indepents wrong.

 

I think maharashtra is likely to see around 15 +/- 5 "others" not allied to the main fronts. Mns aimim vba peasants and workers party, bva and raju shetti  are likely to put out strong contenders on upto 30 seats.

 

Will be interesting if both fronts finish in the 130 to 140 bracket.

 

Muloghonto Grand Master

Muloghonto

Posted
Posted
On 10/17/2024 at 6:06 AM, G_B_ said:

One interesting thing i notice is that polling agencies routinely get the number of indepents wrong.

 

I think maharashtra is likely to see around 15 +/- 5 "others" not allied to the main fronts. Mns aimim vba peasants and workers party, bva and raju shetti  are likely to put out strong contenders on upto 30 seats.

 

Will be interesting if both fronts finish in the 130 to 140 bracket.

 

 

Polling in India is bakwaas. In my experience, they dont do the western style 'cold calling and anonymous surveys', they wait outside booths and interview people who give votes or walk around in the streets asking people with a camera in their face. So people give the answers they think the reporter wants to hear/will look good on tv and not what they really think. I think this is why polling in India is consistently wrong every single time.

 

G_B_ Grand Master

G_B_

Posted
Posted
16 hours ago, Muloghonto said:

 

Polling in India is bakwaas. In my experience, they dont do the western style 'cold calling and anonymous surveys', they wait outside booths and interview people who give votes or walk around in the streets asking people with a camera in their face. So people give the answers they think the reporter wants to hear/will look good on tv and not what they really think. I think this is why polling in India is consistently wrong every single time.

 

 

What you have said is known as the demand effect

G_B_ Grand Master

G_B_

Posted
Posted

Bjp have done well to finalise seat sharing in jharkhand and maharashtra

 

Bjp 68 ajsu 10 jdu 2 and lpj 1. This is a very good seat share set up. Like it or not a lot of Hemant Soren social schemes are popular and it will be a tough fight in terms of vote share. Nda have put best foot forward. If jmm and cong dont get seat share right it might be one of the reasons for a loss.

 

Maharashtra is bjp 151 Shinde 84 and Ajit Pawar 53. I feel bjp could have contested a bit more by reducing shinde. Keep in mind bjp will be fighting more in weaker nda regions of marathwada and viderbha. Maybe 160 was ideal for bjp. I think bjp are currently in the 70 to 80 seat bracket. It should also be noted that opposition struggled with seat sharing for ls. But ended up winning. Nda have announced a lot of sops. Only time will tell if they are working.

 

 

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