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Haryana & J&K Elections


Singh bling

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27 minutes ago, G_B_ said:

Both jharkhand and maharashtra might just be decided by cong vs bjp.

 

Maha cong vs bjp in viderbha. Jharkhand, cong vs bjp in urban and semi urban non tribal areas.

 

 

How is the Ajit Pawar / NCP faction doing after the kiling of Baba Siddique? 

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On 10/22/2024 at 10:45 AM, diga said:

 

 

How is the Ajit Pawar / NCP faction doing after the kiling of Baba Siddique? 

Its a non issue.

 

 

Turth is all this seat sharing impasse wont impact the mva either. Nda was more organised in ls polls but ended up losing.

 

Maharashtra is a post poll game. I wont be surprised if uddhav + shinde+ bjp form gov post poll. Or its bjp + united ncp + shinde in gov. Or its cong + ncp united + shinde.

 

Bjp cannot ally with cong. Rest all doors open. Restricting cong to contesting 100 seats seems like a big win. Blunt truth is maha is likely to see one of shinde+ ajit pawar+ ut + sharad pawar nominee as cm. All these parties are flexible. Both the ncp most flexible.

 

I repeat most important match up is bjp + cong in viderbha. Bjp need to keep cong under 65 and be 75+ themselves. Rest all is up for grabs and managment post poll.

 

 

 

 

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46 minutes ago, G_B_ said:

I repeat most important match up is bjp + cong in viderbha. Bjp need to keep cong under 65 and be 75+ themselves. Rest all is up for grabs and managment post poll.

 

Isnt Vidharba Gadkaris home and also RSS HQ...  ? Why is Cong strong in that region

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18 hours ago, G_B_ said:

I assume cong will fight 85 with upto 15 in friendly fights. Bjp will be very happy with this...

 

 

I feel Sena-UBT is the weakest link in MVA, the more seats they get the better it is for NDA.

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Its actually a misconception that it is the poorest. There are tribal areas of northern maharashtra which are poorer now. Khandesh (Nashik division) is likely the poorest. The Dhule to Nandurbhar belt specifically. There are also some very poor areas in Marathwada. Does not stop the Viderbha is poor sentiment from spreading in that region though.

 

 

Re viderha and the BJP.  Gadkari had made the region into a BJP stronghold on the back of new state sentiment. This included a blend of hindutva and obc politics.  Once Fandavis arrived in order to stamp his own mark he started to sideline a lot of the older established Gadkari era OBC leaders. Chandrashekhar Bawankule was denied a ticket last assembly election (he is BJP maharashtra presdent now but its a case of damage control).  This led to a lot of resentment in the OBC community. IT manifested itself in the 2019 assemly election which resulted in BJP dropping down to 105. They were expected to gain (they did in other regions) but lost seats in Viderbha.

 

Nana Patole who was with the BJP made things worse defected to Congress and projected himself as an OBC leader. Fadnavis saw him as a Gadkari era OBC leader and tried to sideline him. He should have got a union berth post 2014 but was not given one. Patole saw a gap in the Congress in Viderbha and jumped.

 

OBCs are broadly Teli,Mali and Kunbi Maratha. Teli's are strong BJP voters and even in LS backed Modi due to his caste (Modi is projected as Teli in the state). Its the other two Mali and Kunbi (also the caste of Patole) which voted enmasse for Congress. This combined with the rural distress+ Amberkerite+ Minority vote of the Congress and it resulted in a sweep.

 

So the caste conditions created by Fadnavis sidelining OBC leaders tipped over into a Cong victory when rural distress combined with it.

 

I have always maintained that picking Fadnavis was the wrong political call from Modi and Shah. He was not the natural heir to Munde. Both Gadkari and Khadse had the seniority. BJP Maharashtra suffered a setback as he tried to establish himself as the only power centre. Othe than that, he has been excellent at governance and also post poll deals. Not easy to take on Pawar controlled media and make inroads across political lines. 

 

 

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2 hours ago, randomGuy said:

I feel Sena-UBT is the weakest link in MVA, the more seats they get the better it is for NDA.

 

Depends where they get it. UT contention was give me seats in viderbha which are seen as good chance of winning or make me CM face. A lot of these seats are likely to have Congress members fight under the banner of UT. Neither of which works for Patole. He needs Cong to get as many seats as possible in Viderha so he can emerge as the strongest faction within Congress. + he needed no CM face declaration.

 

 

I think the national media is focusing too much on seat numbers. I see many BJP supporters are complaining about BJP giving too mant to Shinde. But turth is that around 15-20 (such as Niesh Rane) are simply BJP members fighting on Sena symbols.

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