jf1gp_1 Posted October 20, 2024 Posted October 20, 2024 21 hours ago, randomGuy said: By 2021, it had reduced further to 1.91, below the replacement rate of 2.1 . have a basic question, if we are already at replacement rate then why isn't population going down from today ?
Muloghonto Posted October 20, 2024 Posted October 20, 2024 16 minutes ago, jf1gp_1 said: have a basic question, if we are already at replacement rate then why isn't population going down from today ? To put it very very simply,its because we haven't been below 2.1 for very long. I think we only went below 2.1 like 2-3 years ago and definitely not before covid. Which means, 'the ones we cannot replace haven't died yet'. if tomorrow TFR hits 0.00, it doesnt mean your population instantly declines, there is still a lag period between higher death rates than birth rates ( ie, below 2.1 TFR) manifesting itself in data, coz it takes some time for the people to die and the death rate to actually get past the birth rate. ravishingravi and Vijy 2
jf1gp_1 Posted October 20, 2024 Posted October 20, 2024 20 minutes ago, Muloghonto said: To put it very very simply,its because we haven't been below 2.1 for very long. I think we only went below 2.1 like 2-3 years ago and definitely not before covid. Which means, 'the ones we cannot replace haven't died yet'. if tomorrow TFR hits 0.00, it doesnt mean your population instantly declines, there is still a lag period between higher death rates than birth rates ( ie, below 2.1 TFR) manifesting itself in data, coz it takes some time for the people to die and the death rate to actually get past the birth rate. You mean if tfr is 2.1 then it's for current year and not for past years where tfr would have been higher. We need to continue at 2.1 or below till all years which were above 2.1 are gone. Is now my understanding correct ?
randomGuy Posted October 20, 2024 Author Posted October 20, 2024 26 minutes ago, jf1gp_1 said: You mean if tfr is 2.1 then it's for current year and not for past years where tfr would have been higher. We need to continue at 2.1 or below till all years which were above 2.1 are gone. Is now my understanding correct ? 25-30 years below 2.1 to Start the decline. If you have to continue declining, then continue below 2.1 Historically no country has come back to 2.1 once it reaches 1.5 or below. People just don't want to have too many babies. ravishingravi 1
Recommended Posts