Trump Presidential Watch (2025-2028)

[mishra]

8 hours ago, Muloghonto said:

The advantage is reduction or complete annihilation of us power as no dollar hegemony = US pulls a soviet union and goes bankrupt and maybe even breaks apart due to Americans being basically gun owning dehatis for the most part and I can't see them act civilly as their country goes through food shortages and such. 

 

And that alone is worth ditching the dollar because that means we kill the king. And everyone who is at even at a mathematical chance to become new king- even the likes of Brazil and indonesia- will love the idea of ' the king is dead and the kingdom is open for he who will take it'.

 

That also includes us in the pic so dedolllarization is a question of when, not if. 

In Heeramandi, how does it makes life of Tawaif any different if customer is uncle Sam or Chinaman? 

[Muloghonto]

7 hours ago, mishra said:

In Heeramandi, how does it makes life of Tawaif any different if customer is uncle Sam or Chinaman? 

It allows the tawaif to assert far more power and make a play for power in the time between gora sahib left and chinaman sahib moved in. 

 

The fundamental law of great power contest is thucydydes trap. If u don't know what it is, look it up. And if you do but aren't aware of it's historical application, then you will see that in every great power struggle, it's always the potential challengers to the hegemon who want the hegemon dead and it's only those who rely on the hegemons mercy to be it'd vassal buffer and not killed off by the hegemon earlier, that do not want hegemon dead. 

 

A late 1700s example would be, all the challengers of French hegemony ganged up against napoleon : from UK to Prussia, russia and AustroHungary. Coz they all had a shot at replacing the hegemon. 

Who didn't want hegemony of France to end ?? The Rhine states, created specifically by napoleon as buffer and reliant on France for it's existence. 

 

Same way today, who are all the challengers to murrican hegemony ? Russia, China,india, Brazil. Who are working to end American hegemony ? These nations. 

Who don't want American hegemony to end ?? American vassals reliant on Merican largesse today to survive: Japan, UK, Canada, etc. 

 

The thucydydes trap is currently activated again in hegemon vs challengers powerplay and it will again go down the way of every single hegemon vs challengers powerplay: hegemon is more than likely to die and if not, the challengers will die. 

 

Ps: a consistent feature of this thucydydes trap power dynamics is that challengers who are enemies will often put aside their enmity to collaborate till the hegemon is dead and once the hegemon is dead, revert back to being enemies. 

 

In my 1700s example, the two natural enemies who collaborated to end french hegemony and went back to resuming enmity were UK vs Russia and Prussia vs Austro-Hungary. 

In modern day context those challenger enemies turned collaborator, waiting to resume enmity once hegemon is dead are India and China. 

Edited January 22, 2025 by Muloghonto

[mishra]

^ i think i wasn’t able to put point across. There has to be one global currency and only ones who print that currency will be the one who will have hegemony over the world.

 

For example, before dollar, it was pound Sterling and Brits ruled. After world war American had got every European nation neck debt, and forced them to accept Dollar as trade currency. Infact made ME accept that as well.

 

Now, two things.

 

1. we are not in post world war Ii level scenario. Countries are nuclear armed.

 

2. Why would a country accept Yuan, aka walk away from US hegemony into Chinese Hegemony. What is benefit to that country?
 

China Needs to beat US hands down to establish its hegemony. why will China share its hegemony with India, Russia,EU and hence why would they support Chinese efforts

Edited January 22, 2025 by mishra

[R!TTER]

17 hours ago, Muloghonto said:

The advantage is reduction or complete annihilation of us power as no dollar hegemony

Yeah, that's mostly BS. Guess which companies export the most out of China?

[Muloghonto]

2 hours ago, R!TTER said:

Yeah, that's mostly BS. Guess which companies export the most out of China?

That isnt BS, that is basic economic math. No dollar hegemony = US debt that is already approaching 40 Trillion ( and will likely break 60 Trillion or so by the time dollar hegemony is gone) is not just a number on paper but affects the value of dollar,leading to soviet style de-industrialisation and deflation in the blink of an eye, due to massive deflation of the dollar.
This is fait accompli if US doesnt get its debt under control *AND* dollar hegemony ends. if the US debt is udner control, then yes, even without dollar hegemony US will remain a dominant power in the top 3 rungs of power indefinitely, but that isnt likely scenario with US economic system.

 

[R!TTER]

Not all of that debt is external; it also includes (mostly?) long-term treasury bonds. The same goes for China, which, last I checked, had over $16 trillion in debt.

22 minutes ago, Muloghonto said:

This is fait accompli if US doesnt get its debt under control *AND* dollar hegemony ends.

This is a fair bit overblown. What the Russia war has shown us is that SWIFT is overrated & sanctions do not work. Basically, if the BRICS wanted to make an alternate currency tomorrow, they could, but they obviously do not want to do that now, in part because the US is their biggest export market. At least for most BRICS nations & indeed other nations around the world.

 

So as long as big US tech firms continue to dominate the world, the US will continue being the hegemon that they are. When they're surpassed or die down, then the US will become much less relevant.

[Muloghonto]

49 minutes ago, R!TTER said:

Not all of that debt is external; it also includes (mostly?) long-term treasury bonds. The same goes for China, which, last I checked, had over $16 trillion in debt.

This is a fair bit overblown. What the Russia war has shown us is that SWIFT is overrated & sanctions do not work. Basically, if the BRICS wanted to make an alternate currency tomorrow, they could, but they obviously do not want to do that now, in part because the US is their biggest export market. At least for most BRICS nations & indeed other nations around the world.

 

So as long as big US tech firms continue to dominate the world, the US will continue being the hegemon that they are. When they're surpassed or die down, then the US will become much less relevant.

You are mixing up a few things. Swift is payment clearance system for banks. Without access to it, you lose access to dollar liquidity market, as it makes it very slow & cumbersome for you to transfer dollars back and forth. You still get to KEEP your dollars if you are cut out of the swift system, its like you just got blackballed by all the banks after u withdrew all ur cash - u still have money, but good luck using it digitally or sending it to someone - you can still do it, but far harder without having a bank account.
Thats what access to/denial of access to SWIFT is like.

however, dollar value itself is dictated by several things - i am no economist, so i cannot explain/know the details of it, but basically what i understand, it boils down to this - amongst one thing that affects the value of your currency, is your currency's debt load.
All currencies fluctuate in value based off of a host of complicated criterias, debt load being one of them and all central banks mess around with interest rates to control the system to balance inflation,growth rates, etc.

However, the USD is the only currency, that enjoys a huge layer of extra protection in terms of its value, as basically its debt load is more or less irrelevant in driving its value, as the main driver of its value is two fold : using USD as most traded currency + using USD as reserve currency.
Its *THESE* two factors that drives a permanent demand for USD - as it will for any global reserve currency, because basically it means no matter what you do to your currency, people still WANT ur currency, coz they use it to store national wealth and trade internationally and basic economic theory dictates that where there is perpetual demand, there is perpetual value.

Now what happens when you lose this demand ? Suddenly your currency ( USD) is in a lot less demand because nations arent storing wealth in it as much or trading as much with it - so what determines value THEN of your currency ? What would make banks/trust funds/currency traders buy and sell your currency THEN ?

Answer: The abovementioned 'various factors' that determine currency value - total Gdp output + import-export balance + debt load + etc etc.

Ie, you lose the protection blanket of 'ur currency is always artificially inflated in value coz peoples and entities around the gold want to hold, aka buy your currency' that comes with global reserve currency status and suddenly all the ' lets just print xyz billion dollars to get outta this mess/ lets just raise debt ceiling for 1 trillionth time as formality and tick on' policies comes to bite you in the arse and your currency most likey depreciates.

Whether you end up like weimar republic germany or soviet union or modern day argentina/greece or a milder version, is something i dont think anyone can predict, but i think its fairly safe to say that given US's reckless financial policies,unsustainable budget deficits and humongous (and exceptionally fast growing) national debt, if/when dollar loses the two main dominance factor of being global reserve currency + global currency for trade, then US economy is el-fucto. And with their economy goes their power, so there is that.

 

[mishra]

^ Think, all of what you mentioned may be true for national currencies.
 

Dollar is global currency ie Indpelndent of how much US consumes or produces. Consumption by US acts as control tap to flow of dolllar which impacts overall growth of world economies.

 

Dollar demand comes from Rest of world to trade, and assets of world are measured in dollar. Ie underlieing  asset backing dollar doesn’t belong to US.

Edited January 22, 2025 by mishra

[R!TTER]

7 minutes ago, Muloghonto said:

You are mixing up a few things. Swift is payment clearance system for banks. Without access to it, you lose access to dollar liquidity market, as it makes it very slow & cumbersome for you to transfer dollars back and forth. You still get to KEEP your dollars if you are cut out of the swift system, its like you just got blackballed by all the banks after u withdrew all ur cash - u still have money, but good luck using it digitally or sending it to someone - you can still do it, but far harder without having a bank account.
Thats what access to/denial of access to SWIFT is like.

Yes and no; what you said is that the world (mostly) trades in the USD, so that's why it's the reserve currency, right? The "power" comes from the trade part. If, let's say, China/India just want to trade in their own currencies, there's nothing the US can do about it; similarly, the BRICS can make an alternate currency, but the biggest impediment to that is their own self-interest.

 

The point about SWIFT/Ukraine war is that the US technically has no levers to stop this from happening, practically zero with such large economies like India or China. The "sanction" also really works on dollar-denominated assets, so anything not being traded in USD can (almost) completely skip the US influence.

12 minutes ago, Muloghonto said:

However, the USD is the only currency, that enjoys a huge layer of extra protection in terms of its value, as basically its debt load is more or less irrelevant in driving its value, as the main driver of its value is two fold : using USD as most traded currency + using USD as reserve currency.

That is only because the trading partners, or countries, have agreed upon that. There's nothing "inherent" in the USD that makes it safer. India & China can, for instance, stick to a fixed USD conversion rate & still trade directly with each other's currencies—like pegging 1 USD to 10 Yuan & 1 USD to 90 INR & trading in Yuan/INR using that. Over time we can simply erase that peg & use a floating rate; China probably wouldn't want that, but it's an idea that works.

16 minutes ago, Muloghonto said:

Whether you end up like weimar republic germany or soviet union or modern day argentina/greece or a milder version, is something i dont think anyone can predict, but i think its fairly safe to say that given US's reckless financial policies,unsustainable budget deficits and humongous (and exceptionally fast growing) national debt, if/when dollar loses the two main dominance factor of being global reserve currency + global currency for trade, then US economy is el-fucto. And with their economy goes their power, so there is that.

 

I'll reiterate that the debt thing is overblown; as long as the US workforce is highly productive & they have the level of immigration that we currently see, it'll be relatively fine.

[R!TTER]

3 minutes ago, mishra said:

Ie underlieing  asset backing dollar doesn’t belong to US.

There is no underlying asset; you know that, right 

 

You know the "promissory note" on the rupee; that's basically what the USD actual value is, except it's backed by the US government.

[mishra]

4 minutes ago, R!TTER said:

There is no underlying asset; you know that, right 

 

You know the "promissory note" on the rupee; that's basically what the USD actual value is, except it's backed by the US government.

Yes. Thats why i was saying Heeramandi. What I meant by assets was when Saudis sell oil, they need dollar bill printed in USoA. Value of a Oul well is measured in dollar.

Edited January 22, 2025 by mishra

[Muloghonto]

4 minutes ago, R!TTER said:

Yes and no; what you said is that the world (mostly) trades in the USD, so that's why it's the reserve currency, right? The "power" comes from the trade part. If, let's say, China/India just want to trade in their own currencies, there's nothing the US can do about it; similarly, the BRICS can make an alternate currency, but the biggest impediment to that is their own self-interest.

 

The point about SWIFT/Ukraine war is that the US technically has no levers to stop this from happening, practically zero with such large economies like India or China. The "sanction" also really works on dollar-denominated assets, so anything not being traded in USD can (almost) completely skip the US influence.

That is only because the trading partners, or countries, have agreed upon that. There's nothing "inherent" in the USD that makes it safer. India & China can, for instance, stick to a fixed USD conversion rate & still trade directly with each other's currencies—like pegging 1 USD to 10 Yuan & 1 USD to 90 INR & trading in Yuan/INR using that. Over time we can simply erase that peg & use a floating rate; China probably wouldn't want that, but it's an idea that works.

I'll reiterate that the debt thing is overblown; as long as the US workforce is highly productive & they have the level of immigration that we currently see, it'll be relatively fine.

 

Holding forex and trading internationally doesnt have to be in the same currency ( it often/almost always is,but doesnt actually have to be so, as India-UAE trade vs their forexes show).

As i said, i am no economist, so i am not gonna argue my ass off on this topic, i simply am pointing out that chinese debt/indian debt/british debt/<insert country x debt> all have similar impact on their currency values, along with the other consumption metrics you mention.

However, USD, as global reserve currency, enjoys extra layer of value and protection that far outstrips the debt load component towards currency value, due to abovementioned reserve + trade currency of world factor.

What will cause it to end/when will it end is the trillion dollar question that i wont even bother arguing or talking over, as its all 'wait and see' for us mere plebs, but what can be safely said, is like what happened to the UK after GBP as global reserve currency died, the same will happen to the US - its economy WILL lose x % of value due to dollar depreciating out of this artificial demand coponent of the net value. That much, i can pretty much safely say as 'math dood' here, as to the overall effect of what happens to USD when its not reserve + trade currency of choice.

But as we say, whether it goes tits up like USSR or weimar republic/gets a fatal hit like Argentina or Venezuela or a long-ish slow death like UK, that will come down to internal metrics of US economy and its productivity as well as what actually happens to rest of the world with the collapse of USD.

 

 

I think a lot of people are getting mixed up in whats happening because there are two/three parallell processes happening/proposed:

 

a) create replacement/competitor for SWIFT system, which is payment settlement system and if you accomplish this, you bypass the locks around dollar liquidity market and can freely do currency trade between banks and entities with this parallel system.

 

b) replace USD in bilateral trade between nations, as it reduces the 'USD demand for global trade' component. Eg- UAE and India agreeing to settle trade in mutual currencies recently.

 

c) replace the USD as currency of choice for reserve forex currencies globally.

 

These 3 processes are 3 simultaneous processes that are linked to each other in ways too complex for me to bother to understand but from what i can tell, these are the three processes that are in play/will be in play in the near future.

 

[ravishingravi]

 

[ravishingravi]

This is big breakthrough 

 

 

[ravishingravi]

Banana republic. And we are taking cues from them. 

 

 

[ravishingravi]

@Lone Wolf

Edited January 30, 2025 by ravishingravi

[ravishingravi]

 

[coffee_rules]

1 hour ago, ravishingravi said:

@Lone Wolf

lol at WhatsApp uncle!!

[R!TTER]

What does that even mean, I've heard that stupid term overused & abused like *in hell 

[coffee_rules]

2 hours ago, R!TTER said:

What does that even mean, I've heard that stupid term overused & abused like *in hell 

WhatsApp Uncle?