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Trump Presidential Watch (2025-2028)


ravishingravi

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1 hour ago, G_B_ said:

Come 2029 inflation would have subsided.

Hasn't it already? It is at 2% now. The problem is that it is 2% increase is on top of the 9-10% we saw earlier. There should either be deflation (which they say is not good) or wage growth across the board. Average wage growth does not give the full picture.

 

I don't even think govts have that much control over prices etc. but as long as people in the lowest quartile can have living wages and afford food, clothing, shelter, healthcare and education, I don't care which govt is in charge.

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1 hour ago, G_B_ said:

I think thats why trump wants them now. He can blame the rises on the dems in year 1.

 

Use tarriff revenue for tax cuts+ deportation+ generate more jobs in usa. Come 2029 inflation would have subsided.

 

Only flaw in plan is geopolitical events.

 


Many US companies manufacture in countries such as Mexico. 

The issue is about US manufacturing not being competitive versus some of the other countries. 


Alan increase in tariffs without manufacturing being competitive is asking US consumers to pay more (labor costs for e.g. is not not going to reduce).

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Some facts. Almost all tariffs that trump imposed continued in Biden adminstration. 

 

On history of tariff, US had them for nearly 150 years till they got their economy right. So it's not a new strategy. 

 

Trump cannot and will not apply a blanket tariff. This bluster is to send a message. But its just one lever. For instance, in his tariff discussion with India, Tata could just set up a steel factory in Michigan and provide jobs. Bottomline is he got something to show for. 

 

Tariff is only intended for two parties mainly. China and EU. That's where he knows he can hurt. 

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Another question might be what happens to DEI, sustainability and all that non sense. Corporates and govts have invested so much in this direction that it will be difficult to pivot from here. Paris climate deal and net zero is half way out of the window. 

 

With "drill baby drill" there will be more oil in market. Inflation will be better. Exports could go up. 

 

And people like me would become more cynical. About everything. 

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59 minutes ago, ravishingravi said:

Tariff is only intended for two parties mainly. China and EU. That's where he knows he can hurt.


I have actually managed a business crisis due to tariffs by the US on Chinese products. It hurt the US consumers and the “additional” tariff was eventually removed. 
 

What happened was: 

 

* The US customers paid a higher price including paying for production migration from China to Taiwan, where the FOB (where the customer picks up the products from the plant in Taiwan) also increased (different cost structure in Taiwan than in China).

 

* The capacity opened up at the Chinese plants was diverted to customers’ manufacturing plants in Europe, Mexico, and South America.
 

 

Edited by zen
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6 hours ago, BacktoCricaddict said:

Hasn't it already? It is at 2% now. The problem is that it is 2% increase is on top of the 9-10% we saw earlier. There should either be deflation (which they say is not good) or wage growth across the board. Average wage growth does not give the full picture.

 

I don't even think govts have that much control over prices etc. but as long as people in the lowest quartile can have living wages and afford food, clothing, shelter, healthcare and education, I don't care which govt is in charge.

 

It has. But issue for dems was it peaked in 2023. 

 

Trump will want 5 to 6% inflation in 2025 before a base effect kicks in post 2025. In 2026 to 2028 he wants it to be sustained at under 2%.

 

I dont think food imports will be part of it.

 

 

 

 

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7 hours ago, G_B_ said:

 

It has. But issue for dems was it peaked in 2023. 

 

Trump will want 5 to 6% inflation in 2025 before a base effect kicks in post 2025. In 2026 to 2028 he wants it to be sustained at under 2%.

 

I dont think food imports will be part of it.

 

 

 

 

 

But one thing we miss about inflation is that unlike economists common man is not looking at yoy movements. He will look at the absolute amount which us a function of compounding. 

 

Trump has his work cut out. He has got great cards and resources. But he also has back breaking constraints. 

 

My sense of that we are in last 25% of the empire. This is last ditch attempt to resuscitate life into the empire. But as they will discover, solutions from 15 years back may or may not work today. 

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Tariff talks and tax cuts are all great. But when you have $36 Trn of debt eroding the impact of wealth creation, it's a slow poison. The only way out is increasing productivity and wealth creation. This is what makes Trump presidency interesting. If he can focus on America and America stops caring about the west per se, they have a chance to push the dominance further. 

 

Also great empires last, when they attract and keep great talent. 

Edited by ravishingravi
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Harsh reality is that US needs illegal immigrants. They have largely managed the labour market and helped in reducing inflation. They don't have or need state support or min wages. USA is an under populated land. Problem was the speed of change and influx. But I don't think they can or will be able to deport 1 Mn people, let alone 15 Mn. The cost for that itself will be insane.

Edited by ravishingravi
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1 hour ago, ravishingravi said:

Harsh reality is that US needs illegal immigrants. They have largely managed the labour market and helped in reducing inflation. They don't have or need state support or min wages. USA is an under populated land. Problem was the speed of change and influx. But I don't think they can or will be able to deport 1 Mn people, let alone 15 Mn. The cost for that itself will be insane.

 

They need right type of people.

 

 

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