G_B_ Posted January 15 Posted January 15 4 hours ago, ravishingravi said: Unless something goes wrong, we are about week or so away. It will cut kunglu textile exports and pak as well. ravishingravi and singhvivek141 2
Tillu Posted January 15 Author Posted January 15 (edited) Pakistanis are losing their mind over this. Outside India, Srilanka the only other country to be exempted from this in South Asia. Atleast now they should understand that ground realities matter more than lip service and political rhetoric. Edited January 15 by Tillu singhvivek141 1
G_B_ Posted January 15 Posted January 15 see the best thing to come out of Trump has been export diversification for India. singhvivek141 1
IndianRenegade Posted January 15 Posted January 15 8 hours ago, G_B_ said: see the best thing to come out of Trump has been export diversification for India. India will also not buy critical offensive weapon platforms which we don't make from US. EU + Israrael will probably get that business. G_B_ 1
G_B_ Posted January 15 Posted January 15 To be fair that was sort of always the case. Chinooks globemasters m777 apache and p8 are the finished hardware. 404 and 414 engines are critical components. There were rumours india would lease the ford class aircraft carriers amd purchase f18. It was floated. But thats as far as critical tech goes. France israel and russia always makn suppliers
vvvslaxman Posted January 16 Posted January 16 So Universal boss can't go to USA? Why did they ban them? Stan AF 1
IndianRenegade Posted January 16 Posted January 16 29 minutes ago, vvvslaxman said: So Universal boss can't go to USA? Why did they ban them? who is universal boss? Munir? if so he can, its not an entry ban.
vvvslaxman Posted January 16 Posted January 16 10 minutes ago, IndianRenegade said: who is universal boss? Munir? if so he can, its not an entry ban. Chris Gayle
Tillu Posted January 16 Author Posted January 16 (edited) How the GCCs keep India’s Current Account deficit (CAD) under control. Good read. “There’s a fundamental change that has happened in India, and it is not what people in this room are thinking” said Ridham Desai, Morgan Stanley’s Chief India Equity Strategist at a recent summit. “The fundamental change has happened on our current account deficit.” He’s right and most people missed it For decades, India’s Current Account deficit (CAD) — gap between what we import and export — hovered between 2.5% and 5% of GDP. It was our Achilles heel. Higher deficit meant higher interest rates, rupee volatility & vulnerability to external shocks. Every time oil spiked or foreign investors panicked, we’d be in trouble. Today? India’s CAD is below 1% of GDP. In some quarters, it’s touched 0.5%. This isn’t luck. It’s structural transformation driven by three forces: drastically reduced oil dependency, the explosive rise of Global Capability Centers (GCCs), and fortuitous timing with oil prices around $60–70 per barrel. Even as India’s IT sector faces existential challenges from AI, the external account has never been more stable. When Oil nearly killed the economy In 2008, crude oil hit $148/barrel & India’s oil import bill exploded to $140 Billion — 14% of GDP. The rupee tanked, markets collapsed, capital fled. As Desai puts it, “Nobody on the planet will fund 14% of your GDP.” India was a $1 Trillion economy importing 900M barrels annually. We had little to sell to the world & imported virtually all our energy. Oil expenses were an existential threat. Today, India’s a $4T Economy importing 1.7B barrels of oil, 1.9x more oil for an economy that’s 4 times bigger. Oil dependency has dropped 60% relative to GDP. Even if oil returned to $140/barrel tomorrow, our import bill would be just 6% of GDP — manageable but not catastrophic. At current price of $60–70/barrel, oil has stopped being a major constraint for the economy Table 1: Table comparing India’s oil import vulnerability in 2008 with current scenario, Source: Business Standard, Morgan Stanley Research At $60–70/barrel, ICRA estimates India saves 1.8 Lakh crores($21B) annually compared to higher price scenarios. That’s the entire trade deficit in several sectors gone Enter GCCs: The Game Changer nobody talks about While oil dependency fell, something bigger was brewing: Global Capability Centers or GCCs GCCs arent new, MNCs have set up offshore centers in India from 20+ years. Whats’s new is their scale & strategic importance. They’ve evolved from back office cost centers to innovation engines running global R&D, product development and digital transformation. GCCs in numbers: 1) 1800+ GCCs in India (2024) 2) 1.9M professionals employed 3) $64.6B in revenue (FY 24) 4) $70B in service exports annually 5) $100-$110B projected revenue by 2030 That $70B figure is crucial. As Desai says: “These GCC Exports are unlike IT services which are cyclical, this is secular.” Why GCCs beat Traditional IT Traditional IT: Project — based. US bank needs a system upgrade, hires TCS, project ends, revenue disappears. These are contracts tied to tech budgets GCCs: Embedded operations. When JP Morgan sets up a GCC in Mumbai for global risk analytics or Microsoft builds one in Hyderabad for Azure development, that’s not a project — it’s a permanent infrastructure. The work doesn’t vanish when budgets tighten. This makes GCC exports rock-solid. India now has a $70 billion secular export engine that doesn’t fluctuate with client budgets. By 2030, this could hit $140+ billion, growing at 18–20% annually. GCCs now account for nearly 40% of India’s IT & business services exports. They’re not a side story anymore IT Sector’s brutal reality While the GCCs boom, traditional IT is getting hammered 2024–25 Layoffs: 1) TCS: 12,000+ (2% of workforce) 2) Infosys, Wipro, Tech Mahindra: 40,000+ combined 3) Tota IT Job losses: 60,000–80,000 4) Projections: 5,00,000 at risk by 2027 India’s IT sector is 7.5% of GDP, employs over 5M people & generated $254B in FY24 Three factors impacting IT: 1) AI Disruption: GenAI is automating coding, testing, support — the main bread and butter work of Indian IT firms. 96% of IT professionals use AI tools, 68% fear that their jobs could be automated within 5 years, yet only 48% received proper training Get Alan Shore’s stories in your inbox Join Medium for free to get updates from this writer. Subscribe 2) Global Demand Slowdown: US clients (60% of revenue) are slashing tech budgets. TCS, Infosys, Wipro reported muted growth. The 15–20% boom years are over 3) Shift to GCCs: Companies are bringing work in — house via GCCs instead of outsourcing to vendors. GCCs offer 30% higher salaries, attract top talent and give companies direct control without vendor margin. HFS estimates 2000 GCCs by 2026, growing to 4M employees by 2029, much of it cannibalising IT services India’s urban unemployment hit 7.1%, youth unemployment 19%. For 1.5M engineering graduates annually, the IT dream is crumbling So why isnt India’s CAD Collapsing ? If IT (7.5% of GDP) is in crisis, how’s the current account stable ? Major reasons are as follows: 1) GCCs are overcompensating:$70B growing at 18–20% annually. Even if traditional IT shrinks 10–15%, GCC growth offsets it completely. Net services surplus stays robust 2) Remittances at Record Highs: India receives $125- 130B annually, the world’s highest. Q3 FY25 saw remittances jump 14.7% YoY to $35.1B. 32 million diaspora is a massive buffer 3) Oil at Multi — Year lows: At $60–70/barrel, we’re saving 1.8L Crores versus higher scenarios 4) Other Exports Growing: Pharma ($25B), autos ($30B), engineering goods ($110B), chemicals ($40B), all expanding while IT gets the headlines Current Account Breakdown (FY25): 1) Merchandise deficit: $250 — $270B 2) Service surplus: $180b (GCCs + IT + Others) 3) Remittances inflow: $130B 4) Primary income outflow: $45B 5) Net CAD: $20–30B (0.5–1% of GDP) At $60/Barrel vs $85/barrel, India saves $42.5B Annually (1.7B Barrels X $25 difference). That’s 1.2% of GDP Compare that to the crisis years: 2012–13 saw CAD of $88B (4.8% of GDP), India has come a long way What this means for India’s economy A sub — 1% CAD changes everything 1) Lower Interest Rates: Historically, India ran high real rates to attract capital to fund the CAD. With CAD at 0.5–1%, that pressure is gone. As Desai says: “We can now run lower real rates, which means interest rates in India will be lower than they have been historically.” Lower rates = cheaper credit, higher equity valuations, more investment 2) Less FPI Dependency: We used to need volatile Foreign Portfolio Investment to fund the deficit. Now CAD is $20–30B, easily funded by stable sources like FDI, NRI deposits & remittances. Even with FPI outflows, we’re fine 3) Rupee Stability: Smaller CAD = less rupee pressure. The rupee depreciated to 86–88$ from 82–83, but this is mild. In 2013’s “Taper Tantrum,” the rupee crashed 54 to 68 when CAD hit 48% 4) Low Inflation Volatility: Lower oil dependency + stable CAD + credible RBI Policy = historically low inflation volatility. This means predictability, better planing and sustained confidence The Bottom Line India has quietly transformed from an oil — dependent, deficit, deficit — prone economy into one with structural resilience. Oil is 60% less important. GCCs provide a $70B secular export buffer growing 18–20% annually. Remittances hit record highs. Even with IT in crisis, the aggregate current account is stable This is the biggest macro story in India that no one talks about The transformation Desai mentioned, the one “ people aren’t thinking about” is real. India’s external account is no longer the binding constraint it was for decades For the first time in decades, India has breathing room. Lower interest rates, less vulnerability and more stability. The quiet revolution happened. Now we need to ensure IT workers can transition, GCC growth is inclusive Edited January 16 by Tillu
IndianRenegade Posted January 16 Posted January 16 55 minutes ago, vvvslaxman said: Chris Gayle Ahh.. god I am dumb. Nope even he can, they have just suspended immigrant visa or green card. reason cited is they are from a list of countries whose immigrants become welfare recipients. G_B_ 1
G_B_ Posted January 16 Posted January 16 @Tillu Excellent article. One question, though, 1.7 million imports seems a bit low. Is this a COVID-era figure? Remittances are expected to reach $150 billion as well. That too will impact the CAD.
Tillu Posted January 16 Author Posted January 16 2 hours ago, G_B_ said: @Tillu Excellent article. One question, though, 1.7 million imports seems a bit low. Is this a COVID-era figure? Remittances are expected to reach $150 billion as well. That too will impact the CAD. 1.7 Billion barrels of oil in 2024 - 2025. G_B_ 1
ravishingravi Posted January 22 Posted January 22 6 hours ago, randomGuy said: 8:30-13:00 is quite educational Absolute class. Thats Ashwini
kepler37b Posted January 24 Posted January 24 Well done UP. Lot of destruction needs to happen in Varanasi. Current state is pathetic to say the least.
singhvivek141 Posted January 24 Posted January 24 2 hours ago, kepler37b said: Well done UP. Lot of destruction needs to happen in Varanasi. Current state is pathetic to say the least. A lot of these shops are illegally constructed, and they're so close to each other that a small fire incident can cause havoc. To expand the Kashi Vishwanath Corridor as well, they did this cleaning, and so many "hidden" temples were unearthed in the toilets of "samuday vishes". Now the corridor is well maintained, and hence, one can see the rise in the pilgrims, which is directly helping the local businesses.
Chaos Posted January 24 Posted January 24 11 minutes ago, singhvivek141 said: A lot of these shops are illegally constructed, and they're so close to each other that a small fire incident can cause havoc. To expand the Kashi Vishwanath Corridor as well, they did this cleaning, and so many "hidden" temples were unearthed in the toilets of "samuday vishes". Now the corridor is well maintained, and hence, one can see the rise in the pilgrims, which is directly helping the local businesses. why are vapes banned in hyderabad? Lmao gf vapes n right infront of cops n vips house. One person told that is illegal here
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