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Posted (edited)

If firing nukes were that straightforward, Russia could have ended this war a couple of years back. Putin is an all powerful dictator, and they are one country who even USA can't touch if they decide to go that route. Instead they have lost over a million of their military personnel (almost all their best ones), their economy won't recover for the next 50 years.

 

Israel too could have nuked Iran with full American/NATO/Saudi support. But did they? They have violated human rights in Gaza (also heavy damage in Lebanon, Syria) at an unprecedented scale but stopped short of using tactical nuclear weapons, because aftereffects will affect them as well due to geography. This whole Syrian civil war, no dirty bomb, despite it being a distant 3rd country in the broader US-Russia tussle, and both major powers being thousands of miles away. Or Vietnam war where Americans took a massive L. 

Edited by Gollum
Posted
1 hour ago, Gollum said:

Nukes aren't simple devices that you press a button and watch a city in flames. Bigger powers like China, USA won't let that happen (nuclear winter will devastate the whole planet), there is a reason why we haven't had nukes deployed post WW-II. India also called out the nuclear bluff by striking Nur Khan. Besides Pak military generals have too much to lose in case of nuclear exchange. For them, priority is to continue their feudal system, whilst painting India as a permanent threat so that their awaaam always sides with them. They won't even risk a conventional war because of self-preservation, they are cowards, that is why the low cost, low risk mujahideen route. They sacrifice lives of thousands of madrassa students while their own children live lavish lives in the west. Same is true for Kashmiri separatists and terror top brass, Hizbul chief Syed Salahuddin's children are settled abroad or have government jobs in India. 

All that is true, but an all out attack on their leadership and military, which is what is being suggested here, will leave them with nothing to lose. 

 

Israel attacked all the head of armies and political figures in Iran. If we do that with Pak the army will have nothing to lose.

 

We haven't had nukes since world war 2 as no nuclear country was ever pushed to desperation. Israel is just destroying Iran and it's leadership and military completely.

 

If Iran has nukes this was unlikely to happen.

Posted (edited)
49 minutes ago, Gollum said:

If firing nukes were that straightforward, Russia could have ended this war a couple of years back. Putin is an all powerful dictator, and they are one country who even USA can't touch if they decide to go that route. Instead they have lost over a million of their military personnel (almost all their best ones), their economy won't recover for the next 50 years.

 

Israel too could have nuked Iran with full American/NATO/Saudi support. But did they? They have violated human rights in Gaza (also heavy damage in Lebanon, Syria) at an unprecedented scale but stopped short of using tactical nuclear weapons, because aftereffects will affect them as well due to geography. This whole Syrian civil war, no dirty bomb, despite it being a distant 3rd country in the broader US-Russia tussle, and both major powers being thousands of miles away. Or Vietnam war where Americans took a massive L. 

Because neither of those countries have been pushed to desperation. If ukraine had taken out putin and top military leaders or Iran had taken out Israeli leaders and military heads, they would 100% use nukes in retaliation.

 

Which is what Israel is doing to Iran and what people are proposing to do to pakistan.

Edited by New guy
Posted

Ideal scenario for India... US uses Paxtani airbases to attack Iran aiming at direct regime change.  But somehow Mullah regime survives at the end of it all... Iran has to withdraw from Uranium enrichment.

 

Current regime will go full anti Pak mode... And here comes the opening for Balochistan.

Posted
42 minutes ago, Lone Wolf said:

Ideal scenario for India... US uses Paxtani airbases to attack Iran aiming at direct regime change.  But somehow Mullah regime survives at the end of it all... Iran has to withdraw from Uranium enrichment.

 

Current regime will go full anti Pak mode... And here comes the opening for Balochistan.

I don't think Khomeni is surviving this. This is ideal scenario for Pak, they can make themselves useful to USA and also eliminate a long time threat on their western border. Chinese might miss out on Arabian sea for now 

Posted
47 minutes ago, Lone Wolf said:

Ideal scenario for India... US uses Paxtani airbases to attack Iran aiming at direct regime change.  But somehow Mullah regime survives at the end of it all... Iran has to withdraw from Uranium enrichment.

 

Current regime will go full anti Pak mode... And here comes the opening for Balochistan.

Historically, luck hasn't been on our side in these matters. Hope you are right about this one, indeed a dream scenario for us if it plays out like that, and more pressure points for our enemy. 

Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Serpico said:

I don't think Khomeni is surviving this. This is ideal scenario for Pak, they can make themselves useful to USA and also eliminate a long time threat on their western border. Chinese might miss out on Arabian sea for now 

It will be bad news for us.. as despicable as Mullah regime is..they are our allies and vital ones at that.

We don't want a puppet regime there & I am sure neither does China.

 

Pakistan is set to gain if there is regime change.

Edited by Lone Wolf
Posted
3 minutes ago, Gollum said:

Historically, luck hasn't been on our side in these matters. Hope you are right about this one, indeed a dream scenario for us if it plays out like that, and more pressure points for our enemy. 

A US backed regime will kill all our interests in Central Asia and Afghanistan.  Let's see how this plays out.

Posted

Iran's ballistic missile Program is many times better than Padosi land... 

Why don't they launch a few into Israel?  Their response is always feeble to say the least.

Mullah regime is all bluster but no show.

Posted
2 hours ago, Gollum said:

This is the exact reason given by Congress for their spineless response post Mumbai train bombings, 26/11. 

 

Did anything change? Pak continued to bleed us through 1000 cuts and turmoil in Kashmir, terror attacks increased. More resources pumped into Kashmir with no tangible benefit to Indian economy. 

War with Pakistan at some point is inevitable. Government policy has changed, any act or terror on our soil will be treated as act of war. DGMO has also conveyed this to his counterpart. It is clear that attacking terror camps won't offer a permanent solution because they produce tens of thousands of jihadis every year. Unless Pak fauj is forced to bear costs of any misadventure, nothing on ground will change.

 

Besides there is the IWT cloud hanging, Pak will attack our dam infrastructure in coming months/years and the ensuing fallout will not be a peaceful one. Either they initiate or we, same result, there will be war and sacrifices will have to be made by every Indian citizen in some form or the other, of course border folks will be affected more but don't rule out some Pak missiles finding their way to major Indian cities. Better get used to this new reality. That nuisance neighbor has been a thorn for 75 years, and for them it is a civilizational war stretching back to 1000 years. India will never grow if it keeps bowing down to regional threats, all great powers have grown when surrounded by neighbors in their sphere of influence or unproblematic. 

 

Won't rule out any pre-emptive attack by us on their military installations if intelligence picks up any terror threat warning. Or an attempt to make some permanent changes along LoC like taking Haji Peer pass which will be key to stop infiltrations of their terrorists. 

By your logic uri surgical strikes Balakot strike also didn't achieve deterrence.mwill see what Sindoor does...targeted clandestine acts will have more impact along with water and economic stranglehold

Posted
2 hours ago, Gollum said:

@velu Your wife's family are expats? 


 

Both live in Iran.

But mother in law is in Bangalore now 

Posted
16 minutes ago, velu said:


 

Both live in Iran.

But mother in law is in Bangalore now 

good luck :)

Posted
25 minutes ago, MechEng said:

I'm already so shaken by the Air India crash that this airstrike doesn't really overwhelm me.

Accidents happen every month in India, this airstrike is a potential ww3 moment. 

Posted (edited)

Oh look Iran raises another spooky flag. Will they finally do something this time?

 

 

 

Edited by Serpico
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