Younis and Akram speed

[Trichromatic]

I am not even challenging accuracy. Even speed guns can't tell accurately.

 

I am challenging that it's not even possible to tell a range of 10 kph.

[Trichromatic]

People are not actually “seeing” ball speed. They are inferring it indirectly using a set of learned visual and contextual cues. The brain builds a plausible estimate, not a measurement.

Below is how this works, and why it feels convincing even when it is inaccurate.

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1. The Brain Does Not Perceive Velocity Directly

Human vision:

• Detects position changes, not speed
• Integrates motion over time
• Loses sensitivity at high velocities

At cricket ball speeds, differences of 5–10 kph fall below conscious resolution, so the brain switches to heuristics.

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2. Primary Cues Humans Use to “Guess” Speed

A. Bowler Biomechanics (Effort Cues)

• Run-up length and acceleration
• Arm speed and shoulder rotation
• Jump and front-leg bracing
• Audible grunt or exertion

These are effort proxies, not speed itself.

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B. Batter Response

• Late or early bat swing
• Being beaten for pace
• Defensive vs hurried shots

The batter acts as a human speed sensor, but batters also misjudge.

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C. Ball–Pitch Interaction

• Bounce height
• Skid vs hold-up
• Length perception

However, seam, pitch hardness, and moisture heavily affect this.

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D. Time-to-Arrival (Very Weak Cue)

• Overall “quickness” from release to batter

This cue is too coarse to resolve small differences:

• 137 vs 142 kph ≈ 18 ms difference
• Below visual temporal discrimination threshold

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E. Prior Knowledge / Anchoring

• “This bowler usually bowls 135”
• “He is not a 145 bowler”
• Commentary influence

This anchor dominates perception more than actual motion.

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3. Why Guesses Often Cluster in Narrow Ranges

Humans compress continuous variables into categories:

• Medium-fast
• Fast
• Express pace

Once a delivery is classified, the brain assigns a plausible number within that category.

This is why guesses often sound precise but are not statistically precise.

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4. Why Experienced Viewers Feel Confident

Experience improves:

• Pattern recognition
• Error correction across many deliveries
• Relative comparison within the same spell

It does not improve raw temporal resolution.

Experts are better at:

• Saying “faster than his previous ball”
• Saying “this spell is quicker than usual”

They are not good at:

• Absolute kph values within ±5 kph

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5. Why Guessing Sometimes Works

People appear “accurate” when:

• The difference is large (e.g., 125 vs 145)
• They already know the bowler’s typical range
• They guess near the population mean

This creates confirmation bias.

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[tapandrun]

19 hours ago, Rightarmfast said:

Adding skills should not result in lowering of pace. Plus, Akram was great at swing from the outset. When did he start getting the groin injury? He did have diabetes, thats for sure. Wonder how much that affects the pace. 

He was called fast mostly due to the impression he gave and that was more due to the fast arm action and the deadly bowling he would do. 

 

Think started groin injuries in late 80's, 

So on reduction in speed while adding new skills is v. common , bowlers need to change action, wrist position, and may be run-up at time. need to build repetition for that .

There are his own interview where he said same thing, its v.common .

 

Diabetes can inc. bp and drain the energy  

 

 

[tapandrun]

19 hours ago, Rightarmfast said:

Stadiums did use to have speedometer. Although, they did not telecast the speeds on television like they do now. I remember seeing Kapil being clocked at 115 or 118'ish when I was a kid. They showed it in the stadium. 

Waqar and all were clocked in England at times, and mostly the stadium speedometer showed them around 135'ish. Had posted a video earlier too. 

 

Shoaib was the biggest factor in late 90's when people started noticing numbers. He was so fast that he became the benchmark for speed. It was more due to Shoaib that WC99 officially kept the speedometer. Only to find out that Srinath was the 2nd fastest in the world. 

 

Not sure of those speedometer and what kind of speeds they were measuring, All I read was either some calibrated radars which are unreliable.

Plus even in the inital days where speedometer was used and Shoaib bowed 150 kmph even the commentators were confused , they said that speed was measure 21 time and then giving the avg or some thing.

 

Can find that video on YT as well.

 

Do not think even speedometer was that common in early to mid 90s, even the board cast and cam were not that good. 

Only Eng/SA/Aus had good broadcasting

 

Edited December 17, 2025 by tapandrun

[singhvivek141]

16 minutes ago, Trichromatic said:

 

How can you tell difference between fast medium and fast when difference is 10 kph that too with release speed which is measured first few metres?

1. Batters ability to get rushed...specially if the same batter is batting against multiple pacers, their reaction time tells. For ex...Tanmay Agarwal and Rahul Buddhi of HYD were easily scoring off Nagarkoti non-chalantly, they were doing against Ashok too...but the ball was hitting the bat earlier than the bat swing is completed.

2. For fast bowlers, unless it's an overpitched delivery, scoring front of the wicket isn't easy, most of the runs batters score are behind the wkts using the pace of the bowlers. That doesn't happen for medium pacers, most of the runs are scored in front of the wkt. 

3. Runup and action too gives hint, a bowler running gingerly and completing his action without an effort isn't bowling quick in most cases. Sasikanth of Andhra is a prime example, excellent runup and action, but zero effort during the release, hence speeds are around 130s. Ashok runs quick, has a heavy load of action and then gives all with effort, combine this with above 2 factors and you'll see that he's faster than the rest. Mayank is another one, runs quick, swift load of action and then the braced left leg which acts as a fulcrum completing his action on time and propelling his body ahead w/o losing much momentum.

 

[Rightarmfast]

24 minutes ago, tapandrun said:

Not sure of those speedometer and what kind of speeds they were measuring, All I read was either some calibrated radars which are unreliable.

Plus even in the inital days where speedometer was used and Shoaib bowed 150 kmph even the commentators were confused , they said that speed was measure 21 time and then giving the avg or some thing.

 

Can find that video on YT as well.

 

Do not think even speedometer was that common in early to mid 90s, even the board cast and cam were not that good. 

Only Eng/SA/Aus had good broadcasting

 

Speedguns were quite common. Speedgun is a very simple machine, not a rocket science. 

[Rightarmfast]

28 minutes ago, tapandrun said:

Think started groin injuries in late 80's, 

So on reduction in speed while adding new skills is v. common , bowlers need to change action, wrist position, and may be run-up at time. need to build repetition for that .

There are his own interview where he said same thing, its v.common .

 

Diabetes can inc. bp and drain the energy  

 

 

Adding skills doesn not equate to reducing bowling speed. Then that's not addition, that becomes a downgrade. Akram said he slowed his pace? I'd be shocked. 

Bumrah has added multiple skills from the time he started, even Srinath did like so many others... Noone ever reduced their bowling speed due to adding skills. 

[tapandrun]

3 minutes ago, Rightarmfast said:

Adding skills doesn not equate to reducing bowling speed. Then that's not addition, that becomes a downgrade. Akram said he slowed his pace? I'd be shocked. 

Bumrah has added multiple skills from the time he started, even Srinath did like so many others... Noone ever reduced their bowling speed due to adding skills. 

 

Around 2.00 he clearly says it reduces the pace, Bhumrah's pace also reduce when he added the ball that decks way from rh batter and when he added swing bowing this may also coincided with his injuries so didnt want to mention him.

 

When Bhumrah was majorly bowling the balls which were dipping into RH batters he was getting into early 150 kmph in test 

 

 

 

 

[express bowling]

4 hours ago, Trichromatic said:

 

You do realize that it's impossible to tell that.

 

You're just making random guess. Ther is no way a person can differentiate between 137 and 142 delivery with video.

 

 

The speed is a guess but he looks pretty slow here. You are missing the point as usual. 

 

 

[express bowling]

4 hours ago, Trichromatic said:

 

Cricket wasn't measuring release speed 1980s and early 1990s.

 

 

There is no evidence of this.

Edited December 17, 2025 by express bowling

[tapandrun]

1 hour ago, Rightarmfast said:

Speedguns were quite common. Speedgun is a very simple machine, not a rocket science. 

Could be wrong but what I know till 90s what ever they had was radar, then some SA company came up with Speedster which measured the speed in 2d and think this was the tech, which was used in 99 wc 

 

the older radar system which is not  that accurate measuring speed  as ball was going downwards as well which already a small object

Edited December 17, 2025 by tapandrun

[express bowling]

1 hour ago, Trichromatic said:

 

I am challenging that it's not even possible to tell a range of 10 kph.

 

It is NOT possible to guess exact release speeds by the naked eye.

 

But is is possible to guess whether a pacer is looking  Fast or Medium pace or Fast-medium etc. from the batsman's reaction ( after considering whether a pitch is normal, fast or slow )

 

 

[Trichromatic]

35 minutes ago, express bowling said:

 

It is NOT possible to guess exact release speeds by the naked eye.

 

But is is possible to guess whether a pacer is looking  Fast or Medium pace or Fast-medium etc. from the batsman's reaction ( after considering whether a pitch is normal, fast or slow )

 

 

 

54 minutes ago, express bowling said:

 

 

The speed is a guess but he looks pretty slow here. You are missing the point as usual. 

 

 

 

Even guess is difficult in that range.

[Trichromatic]

37 minutes ago, express bowling said:

 

It is NOT possible to guess exact release speeds by the naked eye.

 

But is is possible to guess whether a pacer is looking  Fast or Medium pace or Fast-medium etc. from the batsman's reaction ( after considering whether a pitch is normal, fast or slow )

 

 

 

How can you tell that a bowler is not more than 137?

 

If you are claiming that you can differentiate release speeds of 130-137 and 135-142, then you have super human powers.

[express bowling]

1 hour ago, Trichromatic said:

 

How can you tell that a bowler is not more than 137?

 

If you are claiming that you can differentiate release speeds of 130-137 and 135-142, then you have super human powers.

 

Without any reference point, with the naked eye, I won't be able to differentiate between 160 kph and 130 kph release speeds let alone 137 k and 142 k.

 

But here we have multiple reference points here.

 

1) The reaction of the batters.

 

2) Having watched Akram bowl his entire career, I know how his bowling looked when he was bowling flat out. This spell looks much much slower than his quickest spells.

 

3)  I know how the bowling of 6'2" pacers look on normal bounce pitches.

 

137 k top speed is just a guess obviously but that is based on the top speeds ususlly reached when a pacer is bowling a medium paced spell.  ( it can be 132 k or 138 k too )

 

Are you trying to say that you can't make out with the naked eye that Bumrah is usually quicker than Siraj  ?  (  difference of release speeds of around 5 kph on most days )

 

 

Edited December 17, 2025 by express bowling

[express bowling]

26 minutes ago, Trichromatic said:

 

 

Even guess is difficult in that range.

 

 

When a pacer looks visually slow to the naked eye, he rarely crosses 137 k as top speeds. I was being generous.

 

If I am wrong here ( and I can well be so )  then most likely it is on the lower side and he might have been bowling 125 k to 132 k here. So you are right. 

[Rightarmfast]

9 hours ago, tapandrun said:

 

Around 2.00 he clearly says it reduces the pace, Bhumrah's pace also reduce when he added the ball that decks way from rh batter and when he added swing bowing this may also coincided with his injuries so didnt want to mention him.

 

When Bhumrah was majorly bowling the balls which were dipping into RH batters he was getting into early 150 kmph in test 

 

 

 

 

I guess you did not hear it right. He said, it may reduce the pace initially.. a month or 2. And no bowler would start practising a new technique in the middle of a series. They experiment when on break. And during Wasim's time, there used to be a lot longer breaks. And most probably he would have experimented these during Lancashire days, which wouldn't affect his International matches. So, no I dont think this is of much importance..

And again, it 'may' reduce your pace. but there's a 'may'. ie If your muscles are not strong. Pretty sure Bumrah and the other guys did not face this. 

Edited December 17, 2025 by Rightarmfast

[Rightarmfast]

9 hours ago, tapandrun said:

Could be wrong but what I know till 90s what ever they had was radar, then some SA company came up with Speedster which measured the speed in 2d and think this was the tech, which was used in 99 wc 

 

the older radar system which is not  that accurate measuring speed  as ball was going downwards as well which already a small object

Maybe you googled, maybe you didn't. Whatever it is, speedguns were there in a lot of grounds abroad. The thing is, speed guns were NOT OFFICIAL! 

 

Speed guns were 'OFFICIALLY' used by the ICC for the 1st time in 1999 WC. And that was just to get more attention. Speed guns were NOT invented in 1999.

So, post 99, speeds were officially recorded of each bowler and given credits. Whereas, in the past, it was only the speed competitions which registered the speeds of pacers. Even if bowlers were recorded on a speed gun prior to 99, ICC did not officially register them.

[Trichromatic]

18 hours ago, express bowling said:

 

Without any reference point, with the naked eye, I won't be able to differentiate between 160 kph and 130 kph release speeds let alone 137 k and 142 k.

 

But here we have multiple reference points here.

 

1) The reaction of the batters.

 

2) Having watched Akram bowl his entire career, I know how his bowling looked when he was bowling flat out. This spell looks much much slower than his quickest spells.

 

3)  I know how the bowling of 6'2" pacers look on normal bounce pitches.

 

137 k top speed is just a guess obviously but that is based on the top speeds ususlly reached when a pacer is bowling a medium paced spell.  ( it can be 132 k or 138 k too )

 

Are you trying to say that you can't make out with the naked eye that Bumrah is usually quicker than Siraj  ?  (  difference of release speeds of around 5 kph on most days )

 

 

 

The claim mixes correct intuitions with overstated conclusions. It is important to separate what humans can do reliably from what they believe they are doing.

Below is a precise, technically grounded response.

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1. The Opening Statement Is Correct

“Without any reference point, with the naked eye, I won't be able to differentiate between 160 kph and 130 kph release speeds…”

This is false at the extremes (130 vs 160 is distinguishable), but true in principle:

• Humans do not perceive speed directly

• All judgments depend on reference cues

• Without references, confidence collapses

So far, no disagreement.

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2. Do the Listed “Reference Points” Fix the Problem?

They help—but only partially, and not to the degree claimed.

(1) Batter reaction

This is the strongest cue, but it is still noisy.

Batter response depends on:

• Anticipation

• Shot selection

• Footwork errors

• Pitch behavior

• Tactical intent

A batter being late does not uniquely imply higher release speed. A 135 kph skiddy ball can beat a batter more than a 142 kph fuller one.

Conclusion: Useful for relative comparison within a spell, not for bounding absolute speed.

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(2) “I’ve watched Akram his entire career”

This introduces expert pattern recognition, but also anchoring bias.

What this actually enables:

• Detecting deviation from Akram’s peak effort

• Recognizing spells where he is clearly not bowling flat out

What it does not enable:

• Discriminating 135 vs 140

• Setting a reliable upper bound like “nothing above 137”

Memory-based comparisons degrade rapidly below ~10 kph differences.

Conclusion: Valid for “this is not peak Akram,” invalid for fine kph exclusion.

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(3) “I know how 6'2" pacers look on normal bounce pitches”

This is a style cue, not a speed cue.

Height, release point, and bounce strongly affect:

• Perceived pace

• Batter discomfort

• Visual illusion of speed

Two bowlers at identical speeds can look radically different.

Conclusion: Helps classify bowling type, not measure velocity.

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3. The Critical Error: Confusing Relative Ordering with Absolute Measurement

This is where the argument breaks down.

The Bumrah vs Siraj Example

“Are you saying you can’t make out that Bumrah is usually quicker than Siraj (≈5 kph)?”

You can, but not for the reason implied.

Why this works:

• You are comparing many deliveries

• Under similar conditions

• With known priors

• Looking for relative ordering, not numbers

The brain is good at:

“A is usually quicker than B”

The brain is not good at:

“A is 137 and not 142”

These are fundamentally different tasks.

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4. Why Relative Speed Can Be Judged but Absolute Speed Cannot

Task	Human Ability
Faster vs slower (same match)	Good
Faster bowler vs slower bowler (career-level)	Good
Detecting effort drop	Good
Estimating kph within ±5	Poor
Setting a hard upper bound (“cannot be 140+”)	Invalid

The argument incorrectly assumes:

If relative judgments work, absolute precision follows

That assumption is false.

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5. About the “137 kph Guess”

The speaker admits it is a guess, but then treats it as a bound.

Statistically, a visually informed guess like that has:

• σ ≈ 6–10 kph

So “137 top speed” realistically means:

Somewhere between 130 and low-140s

Which does not exclude 142.

The precision is illusory.

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6. Final Technical Assessment

What the speaker is right about:

• Humans use references

• Experience improves relative judgments

• You can tell when a bowler is not at full pace

• You can usually rank bowlers by pace

What the speaker is wrong about:

• Believing those cues allow exclusion of small speed bands

• Treating guesses as upper bounds

• Assuming expert familiarity bypasses perceptual limits

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Bottom Line

• Humans can rank speed

• Humans cannot bound speed tightly

• A 5 kph difference is below reliable visual resolution

• “Nothing more than 130–137” is overconfident, even if intuitively reasonable

 

[rkt.india]

Waqar hitting decent speeds in 99-2000 aus triseries. He was certainly quicker in the early 90s.