Rajan Posted May 17, 2009 Share Posted May 17, 2009 Any team has an equal probability of winning in semis. doesnt matter if its DC or KXIP or RR. you can go down on your day! my point is, with batsmen like Adam Gilchrist, Gibbs, Symonds, Rohit sharma in the team DC is extremely dangerous. They have beaten CSK earlier.their bowling is also good with RP Singh, Ohja and the many slow bowling options. The DC batsmen are big match players and have an edge if they reach semi finals.that was my worry. I am not so worried about RR or K XI P or RBC. I am more confident of CSK beating them in semi final. any way that is my reasoning based purely on my gut feel on Gilly , Symonds and Gibbs destructive batting.in 20-20 i agree any team can beat any other team on their day, but frankly DC have too many exceptionally good players to make their day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spectre Posted May 17, 2009 Share Posted May 17, 2009 Rajan u are right If DC enter the SF, they would be the strongest team. Symonds in the middle order just gives so much strength to their team and Rohit is in dream touch Only worry is their bowling. Apart from RP and Ohja, no one looks threatening CSK and DD are at equal par, both are very strong in their batting and with moderate bowling attack...CSK has gotten better with Albie striking form with the ball. Balaji is bowling well at the dealth over, good spin options. Tyagi does well with new ball. Fielding and catching is a worry, but i hope they will sort it out 4th team - i fancy RR to make it and will be weakest of the SF teams Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dark Horse Posted May 18, 2009 Share Posted May 18, 2009 my point is, with batsmen like Adam Gilchrist, Gibbs, Symonds, Rohit sharma in the team DC is extremely dangerous. They have beaten CSK earlier.their bowling is also good with RP Singh, Ohja and the many slow bowling options. The DC batsmen are big match players and have an edge if they reach semi finals.that was my worry. I am not so worried about RR or K XI P or RBC. I am more confident of CSK beating them in semi final. any way that is my reasoning based purely on my gut feel on Gilly , Symonds and Gibbs destructive batting.in 20-20 i agree any team can beat any other team on their day, but frankly DC have too many exceptionally good players to make their day! DC has far too many chokers in the team.. I supported DC yesterday against Punjab, but now , I've made up my mind never to support DC again, at any cost.:eyedance: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
someone Posted May 18, 2009 Share Posted May 18, 2009 Rajan u are right If DC enter the SF, they would be the strongest team. Symonds in the middle order just gives so much strength to their team and Rohit is in dream touch Only worry is their bowling. Apart from RP and Ohja, no one looks threatening CSK and DD are at equal par, both are very strong in their batting and with moderate bowling attack...CSK has gotten better with Albie striking form with the ball. Balaji is bowling well at the dealth over, good spin options. Tyagi does well with new ball. Fielding and catching is a worry, but i hope they will sort it out 4th team - i fancy RR to make it and will be weakest of the SF teams As seen everytime, the underdogs despite winning it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
varun Posted May 18, 2009 Author Share Posted May 18, 2009 ^^ Bump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shane Posted May 18, 2009 Share Posted May 18, 2009 ^^ Bump Varun i heard today there was a possibility of CSK going down, if their NRR is damaged big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
varun Posted May 18, 2009 Author Share Posted May 18, 2009 Varun i heard today there was a possibility of CSK going down' date=' if their NRR is damaged big time.[/quote'] CSK has a NRR of 0.932.. way above anyone else.. No chance of them going down unless they lose by a 100 runs or something and RR beats KKR by a huge margin as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sachinism Posted May 18, 2009 Share Posted May 18, 2009 Yeh CSK would have to lose by a massive margin to not qualify, don't see that happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shane Posted May 18, 2009 Share Posted May 18, 2009 CSK has a NRR of 0.932.. way above anyone else.. No chance of them going down unless they lose by a 100 runs or something and RR beats KKR by a huge margin as well. So its improbabale.:(( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rajan Posted May 18, 2009 Share Posted May 18, 2009 yes, Dhoni mentioned it in presentation after admitting that the bowling was the worst in IPL! Says CSK has to win the last match. Can u recheck the probabilities plz? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flamy Posted May 18, 2009 Share Posted May 18, 2009 So its improbabale.:(( :finger: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
graphic23 Posted May 18, 2009 Share Posted May 18, 2009 CSK has a NRR of 0.932.. way above anyone else.. No chance of them going down unless they lose by a 100 runs or something and RR beats KKR by a huge margin as well. Hmm, would it be possible for you to list out the combinations through which RR can make the semis ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
varun Posted May 18, 2009 Author Share Posted May 18, 2009 Hmm' date=' would it be possible for you to list out the combinations through which RR can make the semis ?[/quote'] -------------------------- RR Reaching Semis Scenario -------------------------- BRC vs DD: DD KKR vs RR: RR CSK vs KXIP: CSK DD vs MI: MI BRC vs DC: DC -------------------------- RR Reaching Semis Scenario -------------------------- BRC vs DD: BRC KKR vs RR: RR CSK vs KXIP: CSK DD vs MI: MI BRC vs DC: DC -------------------------- RR Reaching Semis Scenario -------------------------- BRC vs DD: DD KKR vs RR: RR CSK vs KXIP: CSK DD vs MI: DD BRC vs DC: DC -------------------------- RR Reaching Semis Scenario -------------------------- BRC vs DD: BRC KKR vs RR: RR CSK vs KXIP: CSK DD vs MI: DD BRC vs DC: DC -------------------------- RR Reaching Semis Scenario -------------------------- BRC vs DD: DD KKR vs RR: RR CSK vs KXIP: KXIP DD vs MI: MI BRC vs DC: BRC -------------------------- RR Reaching Semis Scenario -------------------------- BRC vs DD: DD KKR vs RR: RR CSK vs KXIP: CSK DD vs MI: MI BRC vs DC: BRC -------------------------- RR Reaching Semis Scenario -------------------------- BRC vs DD: BRC KKR vs RR: RR CSK vs KXIP: CSK DD vs MI: MI BRC vs DC: BRC -------------------------- RR Reaching Semis Scenario -------------------------- BRC vs DD: DD KKR vs RR: RR CSK vs KXIP: KXIP DD vs MI: DD BRC vs DC: BRC -------------------------- RR Reaching Semis Scenario -------------------------- BRC vs DD: DD KKR vs RR: RR CSK vs KXIP: CSK DD vs MI: DD BRC vs DC: BRC -------------------------- RR Reaching Semis Scenario -------------------------- BRC vs DD: BRC KKR vs RR: RR CSK vs KXIP: CSK DD vs MI: DD BRC vs DC: BRC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shane Posted May 18, 2009 Share Posted May 18, 2009 :finger: Its for RCB, duh :orderorder: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
varun Posted May 18, 2009 Author Share Posted May 18, 2009 yes, Dhoni mentioned it in presentation after admitting that the bowling was the worst in IPL! Says CSK has to win the last match. Can u recheck the probabilities plz? Well I don't take into account huge shifts in current NRR.. in order to factor them in as well, it will become a bit more involved to calculate the probabilities. I'll see if I can add them in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
graphic23 Posted May 18, 2009 Share Posted May 18, 2009 Thanks varun! So the match between DD and BRC doesn't matter all that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cowboysfan Posted May 18, 2009 Share Posted May 18, 2009 Thanks varun! So the match between DD and BRC doesn't matter all that much. :finger::finger: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rajan Posted May 18, 2009 Share Posted May 18, 2009 by the time, CSK faces KXIP, there will be print outs in both captains about the required run rate scenario, chasing..let us see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rajan Posted May 18, 2009 Share Posted May 18, 2009 DD is 100% in semis. now, is there any possibility of 3 of the other teams-K XI P, DC and RCB to reach 16 points and pip CSK? KXIP has. they have to beat CSK. DC can. They have to beat RCB. RR has only 1 match, they have to beat KKR with a very big margin in run rate to reach 15 points and pip CSK. RCB has 2 tough matches-DD & DC.If they beat both, they will be 16 and automatically reach semis. so, apart from DD at #1, CSK is most likely to end up at at least #4. good chance for the 1 match to go and currently 14 points teams like DC and KXI P to qualify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
varun Posted May 18, 2009 Author Share Posted May 18, 2009 Ok did some math on how RR could surmount CSK in the NRR. Basically it is insurmountable. Case in point KXIP makes 200 in 20 overs. CSK makes 50 in 20 overs RR makes 200 in 20 overs. KKR makes 50 in 20 overs CSK still goes through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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