The AIMIM thread

[Texan]

the problem is they do that in maharashtra and many hindu voters will desert them. Especially the maratha voters who form a big central bone of the NCP-Congress vote base. secondly already in maharashtra there are alliances. Two is a company three is a crowd. Look at the mahayuti. 5 parties and already raju shetty has basically been freewheeled out. Even ramdas athavle is being marginalised (though he does not have major presence outside mumbai).

They don't necessarily have to be in alliance. They can have "unofficial" seat sharing like putting up weak candidates where MIM is strong and vice versa. That is how political parties that don't want to be seen with each other but have a common votebank thwart opponents. It will be upto BJP-Sena if they are able to expose Congress then.

[G_B_]

They don't necessarily have to be in alliance. They can have "unofficial" seat sharing like putting up weak candidates where MIM is strong and vice versa. That is how political parties that don't want to be seen with each other but have a common votebank thwart opponents. It will be upto BJP-Sena if they are able to expose Congress then.

Which is why the sena bjp needs to stay together...they stay together they will shut the door on the MIM. I mean in the lok sabha and assembly elections Sena+BJP had 47% So it shuts the door either way if MIM is in the fray Sena will turn it into a Hindu-Muslim thing. Thats exactly what they did in Aurangabad. As long as MIM is a force they will continue to make this a polerisation issue.

[Malcolm Merlyn]

^ cong has realised it & is now turning to Hindus again...see more of kedarnath/temple trips

The ship has sailed.Congess and SP and another couple of parties in last few years come out as Anti Hindu party with their minority appeasement.

[Kalia_Test]

Our dear MP Owaisi's party has started expanding :woot: “Jai Bheem, Jai Meem" is their slogan

[G_B_]

More feedback from Aurangabad, in the earlier post I claimed that MIM had gained the SC vote. Turns out it does not seem to be true. They failed to win in any of the reserved wards. The BSP has won the most of them along with local SC parties. So the SC community has voted for mostly BJP Sena and the BSP. They just keep thanking the SC community for no reason. Its obvious they plan to expand in Maharashtra via this community but they face tough compeition from the BSP and local outfits such as RPI. What caused MIM to win was Sena and BJP rebels independents sucking out votes from official Sena-BJP candidates. A lot of these rebels polled 15-20% which allowed the MIM to sneak through in atleast 10 of their 25 seats. Of the 19 "others" 16 are Sena-BJP rebels. For the Congress-NCP. The NCP may have won Navi Mumbai its stronghold but the trend and trajectory is downwards. In total they have lost close to 50 councillors in terms of numbers despite the ward numbers in total increasing. The congress is bleeding badly. For the BJP-Sena combine, they need to get seat sharing correct. What could have been a landslide in Aurangabad was a run of the mill victory. What should have been a victory in Navi Mumbai is a close defeat to the NCP. In Ambernath and Badlapur municiapl corporation Sena BJP fought alone and it led to Congress and NCP being wiped out. As they poached the best candidates from these parties. Might be wise for the Sena-BJP to fight alone to avoid rebellion and then come together to form the administration. Top tier leadership maybe in agreement but these local level leaders just cant seem to get along after fighting the assembly elections against each other.

[Yoda-esque]

Our dear MP Owaisi's party has started expanding :woot: Jai Bheem, Jai Meem" is their slogan

You seem to be proud of that

[Kalia_Test]

You seem to be proud of that

They are contesting elections in a democratic nation and winning some seats :dontknow: Owaisi is my local MP from Hyd ( I have met him a few times in a group ) and I am happy he is increasing his party's presence. Parties with different ideologies is good for democracy. People will have more options. His party is filling a space IMO which was not available earlier for voters ( outside Hyd ).

[Kalia_Test]

BTW - Owaisi is not appealing just to muslims for votes. He has cleverly tagged Dalits and other backwards classes and wants to be a party for them. The "Jai Bheem" part of his slogan is for Dr Bheem Rao Ambedkar ( and not Gadadhari Bheem :two_thumbs_up: )

[Yoda-esque]

They are contesting elections in a democratic nation and winning some seats :dontknow: Owaisi is my local MP from Hyd ( I have met him a few times in a group ) and I am happy he is increasing his party's presence. Parties with different ideologies is good for democracy. People will have more options. His party is filling a space IMO which was not available earlier for voters ( outside Hyd ).

So obviously you haven't heard his speeches

[Kalia_Test]

So obviously you haven't heard his speeches

I have heard the elder brother's speeches ( as he primarily manages Hyd while the more aggressive younger fellow is in North Telangana and Maharashtra ) and also spoke to him multiple times as mentioned. I agree some things are OTT but nothing that I have not heard in BJP speeches. I have my own views on these. No one is doodh ka dhula hua here.

[Yoda-esque]

I have heard the elder brother's speeches ( as he primarily manages Hyd while the more aggressive younger fellow is in North Telangana and Maharashtra ) and also spoke to him multiple times as mentioned. I agree some things are OTT but nothing that I have not heard in BJP speeches. I have my own views on these. No one is doodh ka dhula hua here.

Ok

[Gollum]

More feedback from Aurangabad, in the earlier post I claimed that MIM had gained the SC vote. Turns out it does not seem to be true. They failed to win in any of the reserved wards. The BSP has won the most of them along with local SC parties. So the SC community has voted for mostly BJP Sena and the BSP. They just keep thanking the SC community for no reason. Its obvious they plan to expand in Maharashtra via this community but they face tough compeition from the BSP and local outfits such as RPI. What caused MIM to win was Sena and BJP rebels independents sucking out votes from official Sena-BJP candidates. A lot of these rebels polled 15-20% which allowed the MIM to sneak through in atleast 10 of their 25 seats. Of the 19 "others" 16 are Sena-BJP rebels. For the Congress-NCP. The NCP may have won Navi Mumbai its stronghold but the trend and trajectory is downwards. In total they have lost close to 50 councillors in terms of numbers despite the ward numbers in total increasing. The congress is bleeding badly. For the BJP-Sena combine, they need to get seat sharing correct. What could have been a landslide in Aurangabad was a run of the mill victory. What should have been a victory in Navi Mumbai is a close defeat to the NCP. In Ambernath and Badlapur municiapl corporation Sena BJP fought alone and it led to Congress and NCP being wiped out. As they poached the best candidates from these parties. Might be wise for the Sena-BJP to fight alone to avoid rebellion and then come together to form the administration. Top tier leadership maybe in agreement but these local level leaders just cant seem to get along after fighting the assembly elections against each other.

Good post

[BeautifulGame]

More feedback from Aurangabad, in the earlier post I claimed that MIM had gained the SC vote. Turns out it does not seem to be true. They failed to win in any of the reserved wards. The BSP has won the most of them along with local SC parties. So the SC community has voted for mostly BJP Sena and the BSP. They just keep thanking the SC community for no reason. Its obvious they plan to expand in Maharashtra via this community but they face tough compeition from the BSP and local outfits such as RPI. What caused MIM to win was Sena and BJP rebels independents sucking out votes from official Sena-BJP candidates. A lot of these rebels polled 15-20% which allowed the MIM to sneak through in atleast 10 of their 25 seats. Of the 19 "others" 16 are Sena-BJP rebels. For the Congress-NCP. The NCP may have won Navi Mumbai its stronghold but the trend and trajectory is downwards. In total they have lost close to 50 councillors in terms of numbers despite the ward numbers in total increasing. The congress is bleeding badly. For the BJP-Sena combine, they need to get seat sharing correct. What could have been a landslide in Aurangabad was a run of the mill victory. What should have been a victory in Navi Mumbai is a close defeat to the NCP. In Ambernath and Badlapur municiapl corporation Sena BJP fought alone and it led to Congress and NCP being wiped out. As they poached the best candidates from these parties. Might be wise for the Sena-BJP to fight alone to avoid rebellion and then come together to form the administration. Top tier leadership maybe in agreement but these local level leaders just cant seem to get along after fighting the assembly elections against each other.

MIM is too extreme to attract any section of Hindus.The problem for them is they dont have any chance of forming govt or even coming 2nd .For now they will get the disgruntled Congress votes.But their real test will be when they will be in a position to join with Congress(or Janata) to form govt.The momemt they do that their credibility will be shot . And if they continue distance with the likes of Congress how long a party survive without any power most leaders will jump parties after a stage

[G_B_]

the problem for MIM is that Owaisi gambled on the fact that after the creating on Telangana he was going to become the king maker between the Congress and the TRS. I think many political pundits had neither the trs not the congress being able to form the government on their own. However once TRS won a mandate on its own his hopes were dashed. Sure they were "partners in a soft coalition" but he had 0 leverage. Add to that TRS has caused even more people to defect and boosted their majority. With the national decline of the Congress there is a real chance TRS will be able to rule for multiple terms. I dont think any of the BJP TDP or Congress will be able to form government. So you need expansion. Even if it fails. MIM will aim to become post election king makers to NCP and Congress in Maahrashtra. They will hope muslims will vote for them and congress and ncp manage to take back their traditional voters. Problem for the MIM is that their rise is further killing the congress. The congress votebank is under attack from the bsp at one end and the mim at the other. A weak congress means MIM remaining out of power. They need the Congress NCP to be mildly strong. Or just a little bit stronger than the bjp-sena

[Kalia_Test]

the problem for MIM is that Owaisi gambled on the fact that after the creating on Telangana he was going to become the king maker between the Congress and the TRS. I think many political pundits had neither the trs not the congress being able to form the government on their own. However once TRS won a mandate on its own his hopes were dashed. Sure they were "partners in a soft coalition" but he had 0 leverage. Add to that TRS has caused even more people to defect and boosted their majority. With the national decline of the Congress there is a real chance TRS will be able to rule for multiple terms. I dont think any of the BJP TDP or Congress will be able to form government. So you need expansion. Even if it fails. MIM will aim to become post election king makers to NCP and Congress in Maahrashtra. They will hope muslims will vote for them and congress and ncp manage to take back their traditional voters. Problem for the MIM is that their rise is further killing the congress. The congress votebank is under attack from the bsp at one end and the mim at the other. A weak congress means MIM remaining out of power. They need the Congress NCP to be mildly strong. Or just a little bit stronger than the bjp-sena

MIM was never a king maker even in United Andhra Pradesh. In United AP, either TDP or Congress used to always get a clear majority so why would MIM suddenly want to to be a king maker in Telangana? They had/have their niche i.e Hyderabad and were never a real force beyond that in its decades of existence. We also need to remember that Greater Hyderabad has about 5 parliamentary seats ( majority voters from the twin cities of Hyd-Sec ) and MIM always wins just 1 seat i.e Old City ( called Hyderabad parliamentary constituency ) I would agree with your second point that the near terminal decline of Congress post 2014 elections was the main reason why MIM felt that it was their best chance to expand.

[G_B_]

MIM was never a king maker even in United Andhra Pradesh. In United AP, either TDP or Congress used to always get a clear majority so why would MIM suddenly want to to be a king maker in Telangana? They had/have their niche i.e Hyderabad and were never a real force beyond that in its decades of existence. We also need to remember that Greater Hyderabad has about 5 parliamentary seats ( majority voters from the twin cities of Hyd-Sec ) and MIM always wins just 1 seat i.e Old City ( called Hyderabad parliamentary constituency ) I would agree with your second point that the near terminal decline of Congress post 2014 elections was the main reason why MIM felt that it was their best chance to expand.

because 7 seats out of 288 in a united andhra pradesh makes it harder to be king maker than 7 seats out of 119 in Telangana.....This is why Owaisi supported creation of Telnagana. It was to boost his relative numbers. For a party with a limited vote base and seats , smaller the state the bigger area of impact. As i said before it was shown via opinion polls that both congress and trs would fall short of the majority mark in the assembly in 2014. Thats where Owaisi wanted to be kingmaker. It did not work out for him. Prior to that Nanded 2012 was the only major foray outside hyderabad. Because as you said, congress and tdp usually won in sweeps. He must have realised with a brother wanting political space as well that he would need to expand.

[Kalia_Test]

because 7 seats out of 288 in a united andhra pradesh makes it harder to be king maker than 7 seats out of 119 in Telangana.....This is why Owaisi supported creation of Telnagana. It was to boost his relative numbers. For a party with a limited vote base and seats , smaller the state the bigger area of impact. As i said before it was shown via opinion polls that both congress and trs would fall short of the majority mark in the assembly in 2014. Thats where Owaisi wanted to be kingmaker. It did not work out for him. Prior to that Nanded 2012 was the only major foray outside hyderabad. Because as you said, congress and tdp usually won in sweeps. He must have realised with a brother wanting political space as well that he would need to expand.

Come on man - MIM was always pro United Andhra. They care only about Hyderabad .Obviously they will have more power if Hyd was capital of a United State http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/andhra-pradesh/we-are-for-united-andhra-pradesh-mim/article4956767.ece As a localite, I can tell you this. MIM is least interested in alliance at state level or National level ( in Assembly or Parliament ). If it is in alliance, there will be some or other decision that they will have to be a party to and it will hurt their votebank. Their MLA and single MP seat is just to get visibility and remain relevant. Their bread and butter is always local municipal elections where they get good grants. Also, their patrons are Arabs. The younger fellow ( Akbaruddin ) is in Jeddah or somewhere most of the time and got awards from them too. Pretty sure, MIM gets massive funding from Arabs. http://www.aimim.in/bazm-e-ittehad-jeddah-fetes-akbaruddin-owaisi/

[G_B_]

^ he is just saying that because a big % of seemandhra people live in Hyderabad. Its like the shiv sena saying that they dont want partition of viderbha when even they know with 4 out of 62 seats in the region they would heavily politically benefit if viderbha was to part ways with maharashtra. PS they ruled Hyderabad municipal corporation in alliance with the congress and have fought elections before with YSR when he was CM in alliance. Odd for a party which is least interested in alliance. but as a localite i am sure you know that... http://www.firstpost.com/politics/mim-breaks-alliance-with-congress-upa-over-temple-near-charminar-522888.html http://www.siasat.com/english/news/mim-congress-alliance-continues-ghmc

[Kalia_Test]

^ he is just saying that because a big % of seemandhra people live in Hyderabad. Its like the shiv sena saying that they dont want partition of viderbha when even they know with 4 out of 62 seats in the region they would heavily politically benefit if viderbha was to part ways with maharashtra. PS they ruled Hyderabad municipal corporation in alliance with the congress and have fought elections before with YSR when he was CM in alliance. Odd for a party which is least interested in alliance. but as a localite i am sure you know that... http://www.firstpost.com/politics/mim-breaks-alliance-with-congress-upa-over-temple-near-charminar-522888.html http://www.siasat.com/english/news/mim-congress-alliance-continues-ghmc

- I never said they were not in alliance just that it is never their focus. Obviously it is a political party and will evaluate if an alliance makes sense at a certain level,etc. - Seemandhra people in old city ( his constituency ) is news for me. Seemandhra people in Hyderabad live in completely different areas outside MIM influence. There will be very few in old city. - Using the logic that you are using, was he then not alienating pro-Telangana Hyderabadis by supporting United State ? Also, pls remember that there were many proposals and discussions on boundaries of new state, status of Hyd ( Union territory option was also proposed ),etc and depending on what was being proposed at the time, different parties had different views There are many reasons why MIM might have wanted a United State ( Hyd being main one ). There is the communist parties, Naxal influence in smaller state angle and a few others. Will elaborate more some other time :two_thumbs_up:

[G_B_]

- I never said they were not in alliance just that it is never their focus. Obviously it is a political party and will evaluate if an alliance makes sense at a certain level,etc. - Seemandhra people in old city ( his constituency ) is news for me. Seemandhra people in Hyderabad live in completely different areas outside MIM influence. There will be very few in old city. - Using the logic that you are using, was he then not alienating pro-Telangana Hyderabadis by supporting United State ? Also, pls remember that there were many proposals and discussions on boundaries of new state, status of Hyd ( Union territory option was also proposed ),etc and depending on what was being proposed at the time, different parties had different views There are many reasons why MIM might have wanted a United State ( Hyd being main one ). There is the communist parties, Naxal influence in smaller state angle and a few others. Will elaborate more some other time :two_thumbs_up:

The seemandhra people may not be in the old city, but they are within the bounds of the GHMC. This is where the battle is being fought. Rao has posponed the GMHC elections for good reason. He is not confident he can win in the GMHC based on the strength of the TDP in particular within the city. Obviously he did not want for Hyderabad to be a union territory. MIM already have their hold on the old city. They are looking at the suburbs and surrounding districts. I await your elaboration. But MIM will make alliances. Any political party will.