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The Australian Open 2017


Cricketics

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11 hours ago, kumar713 said:

No way

It has been that way since Nole stopped choking (circa 2010), which is why Federer-Nole has been so evenly matched since then. Nole is the greatest returner ever. And Federer is one of the greatest servers ever. If he serves well, he usually beats Nole. If he doesn't, Nole takes him to the cleaners.

 

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8 hours ago, Muloghonto said:

It has been that way since Nole stopped choking (circa 2010), which is why Federer-Nole has been so evenly matched since then. Nole is the greatest returner ever. And Federer is one of the greatest servers ever. If he serves well, he usually beats Nole. If he doesn't, Nole takes him to the cleaners.

 

3 set may be, if it is a 5 set game, it all depends then which Nole turns up - Nole before completing his career slam or post career slam. 

 

If it is just a small bad patch of Nole, I would pick Nole in 5 sets. Federer reached finals last year too and I thought he would win finally, but he was stopped by Nole again. 

 

 

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29 minutes ago, Cricketics said:

3 set may be, if it is a 5 set game, it all depends then which Nole turns up - Nole before completing his career slam or post career slam. 

 

If it is just a small bad patch of Nole, I would pick Nole in 5 sets. Federer reached finals last year too and I thought he would win finally, but he was stopped by Nole again. 

 

 

Yes, in 5 sets, i'd pick Nole too. But only if it is actually the 5th set.

In a best of 5 set, i'd still pick Federer. It all comes down to the Federer 1st serve. If he can consistently put the first two out of 3 first serves in his service games, he usually ends up holding quicker and messing up Nole's rhythm. If Federer serves poorly in this 0-0, 15-0, 15-15 or 15-30 situations, then Nole ends up wearing Federer down mentally as well as physically.  I've seen a lot of Fed-Nole matches. I've seen all types of them: close but ordinary, close and great, not close with one dominating the other, etc. but i've not seen one where Federer does well on the above points (i.e., gets his first serve in) and still loses the match. Thats what i mean, when i say its on Federer's racket. 



PS:  As a side note, these are also 'key points' in a game for the server, from a player's POV. When you play, these are the points you WANT to 'win ASAP/as hard as possible'. Because these points give you breathing room. Error margin. Calms you down if you win those. This is because:

a) 0-0 is the start. Nobody wants to fall behind right from the get go. 

b) 15-0 is when you can get decisive advantage and move to 30-0. 

c) 15-15 is pretty much a higher stake 0-0. Again, don't wanna fall behind and play tight.

d) 15-30 is mini-crisis. Under no circumstance do you want to be 15-40 down and have to win 2 straight points to win the game. 

 

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Federer can't maintain his level against Nole over 5 set matches. That is the reason roger lost couple of slam finals to him in past few years even though he reached finals with ease.

Nole has the mental edge in grand slams. When Nole decides to grind federer physically federer can't handle that. 

In best of 3 federer can match nole but not in 5 setters.

 

I was really surprised by AO 2017 result. Nadal of earlier with a break up in 5th set would have never lost. That shows how well nadal has declined.

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4 hours ago, Muloghonto said:

PS:  As a side note, these are also 'key points' in a game for the server, from a player's POV. When you play, these are the points you WANT to 'win ASAP/as hard as possible'. Because these points give you breathing room. Error margin. Calms you down if you win those. This is because:

a) 0-0 is the start. Nobody wants to fall behind right from the get go. 

b) 15-0 is when you can get decisive advantage and move to 30-0. 

c) 15-15 is pretty much a higher stake 0-0. Again, don't wanna fall behind and play tight.

d) 15-30 is mini-crisis. Under no circumstance do you want to be 15-40 down and have to win 2 straight points to win the game. 

 

:nice:

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4 minutes ago, kumar713 said:

Federer can't maintain his level against Nole over 5 set matches. That is the reason roger lost couple of slam finals to him in past few years even though he reached finals with ease.

Nole has the mental edge in grand slams. When Nole decides to grind federer physically federer can't handle that. 

In best of 3 federer can match nole but not in 5 setters.

 

I was really surprised by AO 2017 result. Nadal of earlier with a break up in 5th set would have never lost. That shows how well nadal has declined.

In none of the 5 setters recently, has Federer served well. Actually except this Aussie Open, i can't think of a tourney where Federer served well since Wimbledon 2014 and even then he served poorly the match vs Djokovic. Anyways, their best of 5 set record is 9-7 in Djokovic's favour, hardly a decisive advantage, given the disparity in age. 

Nadal being break up and crumbling, its not about Nadal's decline, its more of Federer never plays this high risk tennis in 5th set before, going for as many winners as he did here.

 

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Federer has a good chance vs Nole in fast courts but in 5 setters  i will go with Novak irrespective of court speeds. Even if Federer serves well it won't be of much threat since Nole returns well. Once they engage in rally its advantage Nole.

 

I remember Nadal was 2-0 in final set against Verdasco in AO 2016 then crumbled. 

 

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7 hours ago, kumar713 said:

Federer has a good chance vs Nole in fast courts but in 5 setters  i will go with Novak irrespective of court speeds. Even if Federer serves well it won't be of much threat since Nole returns well. Once they engage in rally its advantage Nole.

 

I remember Nadal was 2-0 in final set against Verdasco in AO 2016 then crumbled. 

 

As i said, i agree if its the 5th set. However, in a simple best of 5, i will favour Fed on the faster surfaces, if Fed serves well. And if you look at their matches, Nole being a great returner only factors in when Fed isn't serving well. Nole is practically impossible to ace, but against most first serves, he puts the ball barely into the court for a slam-dunk winner from Fed. Its when Fed has to serve the 2nd serve repeatedly that Nole puts him on the backfoot. 

 

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On 04/02/2017 at 5:41 PM, kumar713 said:

R u kidding? Federer shut down novak?   If it was Nole in final we all know what would have been the result even before players arrive on court.

 

Nole was always troubled by Stan in slams but not against Federer.

What are you talking about? I was referring to all the obnoxious drivel that was spewed by Nole fans regarding him being BOAT and GOAT. Federer has firmly shut the door on such debates and I am happy for it. Tennis should not have a ball bouncing, grunting, time waster as its GOAT.

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