China is Indias biggest enemy. They are doing everything possible to harm and undermine India

[narenpande1]

31 minutes ago, randomGuy said:

^^my guess is they (car sales) could stagnate... They will continue buying Cars, houses (for consumption, not as investment) etc. The sales may flatten in worst case but won't decrease much. Kyoki Chinese ko consumption ka chaska lag gaya.. Waise Bhi their consumption per capita is less than usa  Europe etc. 

 

Anyways u didn't give me ur guess for 'x' so let me try 

Since Gdp is broadly = investment +consumption + net exports

 

I would say 'investment'  part would struggle for china... Exports will remain constant i guess and consumption would increase somewhat ... 'X' taking into account all that (recession in infra investment etc.) could be maybe  4....meaning chinas stable state gdp 4 times India's with india having prospects of much better future growth... Agree? 

 You missed govt expenditure as a part of GDP composition - that is HUGE in China. Provincial level govt expenditure taking easy debt facilitated by central govt to meet gdp numbers . That will come down crashing. 

 

After correction chinese economy maybe 4 times, maybe 3.5 times that of India. It is anybody’s guess. But it will cause atleast decade of stagnation and slow growth sub 3 % while India with nearly 7.5 % over next 15 years, inches closer 

Edited February 6, 2018 by narenpande1

[randomGuy]

17 minutes ago, narenpande1 said:

 You missed govt expenditure as a part of GDP composition - that is HUGE in China. Provincial level govt expenditure taking easy debt facilitated by central govt to meet gdp numbers . That will come down crashing. 

 

After correction chinese economy maybe 4 times, maybe 3.5 times that of India. It is anybody’s guess. But it will cause atleast decade of stagnation and slow growth sub 3 % while India with nearly 7.5 % over next 15 years, inches closer 

Which is what I agree with. it isn't a disastrous future for China.

 

 

 

 

[narenpande1]

21 minutes ago, randomGuy said:

Which is what I agree with. it isn't a disastrous future for China.

 

 

 

 

@randomGuy

 

I said sub 3 % when the correction storm goes away and things settle. But honestly the correction and it’s domino effect can have far worse consequences than we can imagine - because we just don’t know how much the Chinese are concealing.

 

Picture this - chinese economy is 60 % of the US economy in nominal gdp terms.

But the money supply in China is 75 % more than US - does this not say how much money the Chinese have been printing ridiculously  ??

 

And yet reported chinese inflation is less than 2 %

 

this is why even chinese govt insiders admit that there is a huge mess in the system that can blow up anytime and cause a lot of pain. Nobody knows how much and for how long. I am a portfolio manager, no economist. No economist can predict the quantum of the correction - because nobody knows the true figures. 

 

They have ave been cooking their numbers for a while 

https://www.google.com/amp/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN1F60I1

 

Edited February 6, 2018 by narenpande1

[narenpande1]

@randomGuy  

 

you should watch this - these 2 guys Kyle Bass and Jim Chanos are the 2 most successful short sellers in America

 

every point they mention is indisputable 

 

 

[randomGuy]

Here Kyle bass also says recap of banks(just read the title n hear first 2 lines)  would be required (the same thing which I had said 40posts back) 

 

Edited February 6, 2018 by randomGuy

[narenpande1]

17 minutes ago, randomGuy said:

Here Kyle bass also says recap of banks(just read the title n hear first 2 lines)  would be required (the same thing which I had said 40posts back) 

 

 

exactly.. what does 30 % recap do to yuan value  , when they have to print that much more yuan ? They will also have to write down 4 Trillion dollars worth debt.  They will also dry down the credit trap significantly. 

They will also have find venues to engage all this construction  labor now that they have built mountains worth of infrastructure ? what  are those venues ??

 

What is the cumulative effect of all of the above ?

 

 

 

 

Edited February 6, 2018 by narenpande1

[randomGuy]

7 minutes ago, narenpande1 said:

 

exactly.. what does 30 % recap do to yuan value  , when they have to print that much more yuan ? They will also have to write down 4 Trillion dollars worth debt.  They will also dry down the credit trap significantly. 

They will also have find venues to engage all this construction  labor now that they have built mountains worth of infrastructure ? what  are those venues ??

 

What is the cumulative effect of all of the above ?

 

 

 

 

U think others countries, investing firms etc. do not know this (they know) ? And yet yuan is where it is (strength wise). And maybe the cleanup will be seen positively, as was the case for Indian psu banks. 

[narenpande1]

15 minutes ago, randomGuy said:

U think others countries, investing firms etc. do not know this (they know) ? And yet yuan is where it is (strength wise). And maybe the cleanup will be seen positively, as was the case for Indian psu banks. 

American and western countries can’t get over the market base in China and want to milk it. 

 

You never judge yuan for where it is because the govt has strict capital controls.

Take out the capital controls and let yuan trade and market value and see where it lands.

 

jnformed wealthy Chinese moved 1 trillion dollar worth assets out of China end of 2016 reducing Chinese reserves to that extent. China was forced to put a 15,000 per person annual cap after that. If they were so confident - why place such stringent controls and let yuan face the effects of gravity. They CANNOT save the yuan from falling by artificial control forevee

 

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-12-30/china-launches-new-capital-controls-puts-15000-annual-cap-overseas-atm-withdrawals

 

 

Edited February 6, 2018 by narenpande1

[randomGuy]

Every country must have capital controls to safeguard its interests. That's a good thing. In long term, it's the inherent strength of the country, it's economy which provides stability. But in short term, capital controls would protect against volatility, panic. 

Capital controls aren't necessarily bad. 

 

Also - China's foreign reserves and foreign assets 

Edited February 6, 2018 by randomGuy