A Duckworth-Lewis like Formula to Neutralize Toss Advantage and Pitch Influence?

[DarkProfile]

Toss cannot be allowed to play such a decisive role in a short format as T20. It's almost a given that any team that wins the toss in T20 decides to bowl first because the short format favours the chasing team. And when one considers the influence of pitch, for e.g., dew conditions, the chances of winning go even higher for the chasing team.

 

So, I was thinking that maybe we can have some kind of quantitative formula that roughly takes into account the pitch conditions and the net run rate of the target-setter and target-chaser to come up with something like:

 

Chasing team will have to score "Target + X" runs to win the game.

 

So, if you win the toss, you can either take batting first, in which case an X amount of runs will be automatically added to your target based on the formula; or you can bowl first, in which case you will chase Target + X runs.

 

Sounds fair to me and keeps the game exciting?

[DarkProfile]

16 hours ago, MultiB48 said:

Maybe they could break up each inning into 2 halves of 10 overs each ,and have a toss before each half ,that might reduce the impact of the toss.Also add a coat of wax on the ball to save it from the moisture.

 

Not an elegant and smooth solution. Disruptive, jarring, overstretching time & resources, etc.

 

I believe teams batting first anyway have some rough, back-of-the-envelope calculations like 20-25 additional runs to counter dew. Why not quantify and codify those calculations? Don't think anyone will complain.

[DarkProfile]

18 minutes ago, MultiB48 said:

The amount of dew present is not consistent in these matches and players also generally prefer scoring runs themselves over arbitrary runs being added to the score .

 

The extra time maybe an issue but they already use a lot of breaks , infact a couple of 5 min breaks will bring in more ad revenues.Dont think Ipl will mind it.

 

I see your point. But I would prefer a solution that keeps the game simple, brings minimum disruption and is fair to both teams. Statisticians just need to take into account the average/median run rate difference for the scoring and chasing sides on a pitch for a format at a time-slot.

 

Breaking an innings into two innings in a short format like T20 doesn't appeal to me because it brings in all kinds of complexity for the audience. Personally, I watch one side's innings and follow the other side's innings while doing some work, or maybe watch it during crucial intervals... so, it complicates my time-management and I don't have much clarity about my side's chances till very late.

 

Let's see...

Edited April 9, 2022 by DarkProfile