Sachin's centuries and India's defeats.

[Guest BossBhai]

-- Removed on request of the user --

[vaibhav_delhi]

Isn't it obvious to you that as the number of centuries a player scores increases the percentage in wins will asymptote to the overall winning percentage of his team? If a hypothetical batsman scores a hundred in every match, his percentage of hundreds in wins is going to be exactly the same as his team's overall percentage. Jason Gillespie is not a bigger match winner or greater batsman than Ponting because 100% of his centuries have been match winning.

Yeps that is correct. But sachin is obviously far from your hypothetical batsman. Scores ton in every ten innings probably worse against the top oppositions. My main point was of last 5 years where the Tons in Wins percentage Vs the overall win percentage is a total mismatch.

[The Outsider]

Yeps that is correct. But sachin is obviously far from your hypothetical batsman. Scores ton in every ten innings probably worse against the top oppositions. My main point was of last 5 years where the Tons in Wins percentage Vs the overall win percentage is a total mismatch.

He scores a hundred much more frequently than any other batsman in ODI history, so quite obviously his percentage of winning hundreds is going to be closer to the overall team percentage than other batsmen who score hundreds less frequently. He is not the hypothetical batsman scoring a hundred every match, but he is a lot closer to the hypothetical batsman than any other ODI batsman.

[Guest BossBhai]

-- Removed on request of the user --

[Raghav_12]

Great points there proff :nice: Heres another way to look at it ... SRT has got out in the 90s eleven times in matches won ... his avg score in those 11 matches is 95.27 ... so if we are to subscribe to Vaibhavs theory then we would have lost about half of those matches had he scored about 5 more runs in each of them :D

lolz..:-) Another stat which Vaibhav_Delhi will like.. Bangladesh has played 68 test matches winning just 3. Winning % = 4.4% Atleast one of Bangladeshi Batsman hit a century in 18 Test matches which country has played but they have won just one of those test matches - Winning % = 5.5 % So, Going by Vaibhav_Delhi's logic, A batsman hitting century for Bangladesh doesn't really increase probability of Bangladesh win so all of these centuries should be questioned :-). Vaibhav Delhi any comment on this? (Not very logical analogy, but how else you can deal with Lahori Logic )

[ganeshran]

Isn't it obvious to you that as the number of centuries a player scores increases the percentage in wins will asymptote to the overall winning percentage of his team? If a hypothetical batsman scores a hundred in every match, his percentage of hundreds in wins is going to be exactly the same as his team's overall percentage. Jason Gillespie is not a bigger match winner or greater batsman than Ponting because 100% of his centuries have been match winning.

:nice:

[ganeshran]

Anyone wants to do this exercise for me? Thanks :icflove:

Sure,, I'll do it :icflove: (Stats are 2 matches old) ====================================================== All matches featuring Sachin Total Matches = 442 Sachin Runs = 17815 Total India runs = 99136 Average Percentage of Total Team Score = 17.82 % ====================================================== All Matches featuring Sachin and Won by India Total Matches = 225 Sachin Runs = 10827 Total India runs = 54191 Average Percentage of Total Team Score = 20.305% ====================================================== Hence there is an average 2.5 % increase in Sachin's contribution when India wins, which is pretty significant since it must run in 1500+ runs atleast ===================================================== Here is the query incase someone wants select SUM(pbs.runs_scored),SUM(i.runs),AVG((pbs.runs_scored/i.runs)*100),COUNT(i.matchid) from Players p, Matches m, PlayerBattingStats pbs, Innings i where p.id = pbs.playerid and m.id = pbs.matchid and m.id = i.matchid and m.winning_teamid = 6 and p.cname = 'Sachin Tendulkar' and i.batting_teamid = 6 and m.matchtype = 'ODI';

[HowardRoark]

Good stats there Ganesh :nice:

[Sachin=GOD]

Ganesh :nice:

[The Outsider]

For Tendulkar's scores : 1. 0-29 : India wins 43% 2. 30-49 : India wins 51% 3. 50-89 : India wins 60% 4. 90-99 : India wins 61% 5. 100+ : India wins 69% Quite clearly Tendulkar scoring big runs really hurts India's chances of winning.

[Sachin=GOD]

For Tendulkar's scores : 1. 0-29 : India wins 43% 2. 30-49 : India wins 51% 3. 50-89 : India wins 60% 4. 90-99 : India wins 61% 5. 100+ : India wins 69% Quite clearly Tendulkar scoring big runs really hurts India's chances of winning.

Vaibhav_Dhoni pwned :hysterical::hysterical::hysterical::hysterical:

[ganeshran]

Good stats there Ganesh :nice:

Ganesh :nice:

:two_thumbs_up::two_thumbs_up::icflove:

[Raghav_12]

For Tendulkar's scores : 1. 0-29 : India wins 43% 2. 30-49 : India wins 51% 3. 50-89 : India wins 60% 4. 90-99 : India wins 61% 5. 100+ : India wins 69% Quite clearly Tendulkar scoring big runs really hurts India's chances of winning.

:nice:

[vaibhav_delhi]

Following could be factors that might be working together, not necessarily one-at-a-time in each match, as a reason why we see those stats: 1. Sachin's ton affects performances of other players in the sense that they: ->can get overconfident or overjoyed, loosing their peak intensity. Maybe thinking in their sub-conscious that their best batsman has dominated, so they should win relatively comfortably. ->are in awe of sachin's performance so they dont perform their own roles as expected. -> Feel pressurized by greater win expectations by the crowd after the hundred. This factor could be partly responsible for india losing 9/29 Vs SA and 7/23 Vs england and then letting them make 338. 2. (Suggested by Outy) Sach scores more tons per innings than any other batsman. So the win %age in Tons should obviously be closer to teams overall win %age than for any other batsman. Hence, in sach's case, it cant be 80-85% like it is for other batters. This factor AUTOMATICALLY includes all flaws in team's quality. 3. Failure on sach's part to finish off close games like the one Vs Aust where he got out just 19 runs short of victory. 4. Bad luck Pls also Note that, Every factor isnt necessarily working in every single match, like there are only a few matches where factor#3 is applicable!! all are welcome to add or debate the factors....

[vaibhav_delhi]

Vaibhav_Dhoni pwned

Yeah Sure, keep dreaming *****

[Sachin=GOD]

SInce 2006, Win %age in Sachins hundreds 50%. over-all win %age: 56% Since sachin's debut, Win %age in Sachins hundreds 63%. over-all win %age: 46%

Since you have taken the stats from 2006 onwards, what about looking at it from a different perspective: From 1989 to 2006 India's winning% in ODIs was 48.63 BUT when Goddy scores a 100 the winning% goes up to 73.68. From 2006 onwards India's winning% in ODIs is 56 BUT when Goddy scores a 100 the winning& goes down to 50%. Since Goddy's debut, India's winning% is 46 BUT when Goddy scores a 100 it goes up to 63%. So, basically, India's winning% increased when Goddy scored a 100 from 1989 to 2006 and India's winning% has also increased when Goddy scored a 100 from 1989 to 2011 BUT India's winning% has decreased when Goddy scored a 100 from 2006 to 2011. Now, from this you want to conclude that in the last 5 years Goddy's 100s are resulting in India's winning% going down BUT another side of the coin is that the very same 100s by the same man were resulting in 73% winning% from 1989 to 2006 - that man was performing from 1989 to 2006 and has also been performing equally well (if not better) from 2006 onwards, so its the other 10 guys whos performances have fallen since 2006 which have resulted in India's winning% decreasing when Goddy scored a 100. From 1989 to 2006 whenever Goddy scored a 100, the rest of the team mates were responsible enough to try and perform well so India won the match but in the last 5 years while that one man has continued to score 100s at roughly the same pace, the rest of the members are simply not performing well enough when he scores a 100. So why not blame the rest of the team mates :dontknow: or is it that you just simply want to blame one particular man who has scored a 100 ???

[gaurav92]

Goddy Not posting anymore than this.

[HowardRoark]

Goddy Not posting anymore than this.

+1 To all others:

Never argue with an idiot, cause he'll bring you down to his level and beat you with experience

[vaibhav_delhi]

Since you have taken the stats from 2006 onwards, what about looking at it from a different perspective: From 1989 to 2006 India's winning% in ODIs was 48.63 BUT when Goddy scores a 100 the winning% goes up to 73.68. From 2006 onwards India's winning% in ODIs is 56 BUT when Goddy scores a 100 the winning& goes down to 50%. Since Goddy's debut, India's winning% is 46 BUT when Goddy scores a 100 it goes up to 63%. So, basically, India's winning% increased when Goddy scored a 100 from 1989 to 2006 and India's winning% has also increased when Goddy scored a 100 from 1989 to 2011 BUT India's winning% has decreased when Goddy scored a 100 from 2006 to 2011. ?

1. Yeps, Agreed from bolded stat that his Win %age in Tons was a lot better till 2005 end than it is in recent years or for the overall career. Thats a Good thing!! But people are more interested in the recent record and the overall record. 2. My Aim is not to blame sachin , but to highlight that stat and then to bring out the factors responsible for tht stat (if you read my last post), although initially I didnt want to go into the factors.

[Sachin=GOD]

1. Yeps' date=' Agreed from bolded stat that his Win %age in Tons was a lot better till 2005 end than it is in recent years or for the overall career. [/quote'] But the consistentcy of the 100s being scored has been almost the same throughout the career, so how (or rather why) is it that the same 100s that resulted in India's win from 1989 to 2006 are resulting in loss from 2006 onwards?? The answer is simple - earlier the rest of the team also contributed when he scored a 100 but now the rest of the players do not perform well when Goddy scores a 100 - they are the ones you should blame for these losses. He was scoring 100s earlier also and he's scoring 100s now also, so how come he's responsible for India's winning% going down :dontknow:

Thats a Good thing!! But people are more interested in the recent record and the overall record.

How could you say with certainty that people are more interested in "recent" records and even more importantly, how do you define the term "recent" - what criteria have you used in order to come to the conclusion that the period from 2006 onwards is to be classified as "recent" ??? Why not take the period from 2007 onwards - India's winning% has been 58.2 since 2007 BUT when Goddy scores a 100 it goes up to 62.5% - maybe thats why you took the period from 2006 as "recent".

2. My Aim is not to blame sachin , but to highlight that stat and then to bring out the factors responsible for tht stat (if you read my last post).

then whats your aim???