G_B_ Posted December 5, 2014 Author Share Posted December 5, 2014 When this wave falls the BJP will fall as well and no Tawde Munde Khadss will save them. You know why a wave falls?Because of gravitional pull.Right now there is no such political force that can pull Modi down.Congress will never accept a secondary role in the opposition.The Janta Pariwar is full of leaders fighting for survival and with big egos and ambitions higher than Everest.Really strong state leaders like Patanaik are happy in their state and will humour whosoever is in centre.Amma is busy fighting battles in the court and wont want to provoke Modi. BJP is taking TMC head on.If they can split the TMC they have a good chance being in the ruling coalition in Bengal.Also i expect them to come to power in UP in 2017. To break this wave there needs to be strong leader and strong force in the opposition which isnt there and doesnt look like emerging either. yeah but the wave does not need to totally fall for you to lose. There was a wave in Tn and Bengal. Its just you had bigger waves in those states from other parties. A wave in political terms is described as being % gain in vote share. A wave gradually rises and gradually falls away. Take Maharashtra, based on polling % the Modi wave is worth 10% of the popular vote. This is taking into account the changes from their polling % per seat from last year. Plus the fact that BJP sold their allies some really dud seats. Factors to consider are (A) voter turnout was high. Especially in Mumbai. Mumbai's middle class will continue to believe in Modi but will they turn out for him twice? This election was about regime change. Lethagy kicks in. My 75 year old grandmother who is not into politics stood for 3 hours in a line to vote for Modi in the lok sabha. Come assembly she would have voted BJP but did not turn out assuming the BJP would win. (B) Will the BJP be able to retain its smaller allies? They gained some 2-3% on the back of them. These smaller parties are not fools. With a Modi wave at its peak you gained 10% and failed to form government on their own. In 2019 you might (A) find the ncp and congress combined. Together they polled about 37%. Which is substantially more than the BJP's 29% (B) Even if its a 4 way fight you will naturally find an increase in the congress ncp vote. If you have 122 with 29% now with a wave at max, will you will be able to sustain it? The solution therefore is to develop a local government which is not beset by infighting. What does ignoring Khadse achieve? Agriculture? Do the right thing and give him Home. Finally one only has to look at Andhra Pradesh. YSR fell and then congress collapsed in the state. This is why you cannot put all your eggs in one basket. Freak accidents as we saw with Munde are very much possible in our nation. In that sense picking Fadnavis was a mistake. An honest man he is. a mass leader he is not. Let the BJP produce mass leaders in each state so they don't depend on any one man. While its ok to support one man (Modi, who even I support). Think big and by developing local leaders in every district you will rule for decades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bulbul Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 ^ 1.You cannot produce mass leaders,they have to come up themselves. 2.From next budget wave doesn't matter how Govt performs is what matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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