State elections 2013 thread: Delhi, MP, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Mizoram

[The Outsider]

Given AAP's impressive numbers in all opinion polls it will be sad if educated people continue to vote for the same crap in BJP and Congress. These numbers are not in the 5-10% range where incremental votes will not make a difference. My dream scenario - neither the BJP or Congress are able to form a government. There are re-elections and AAP wins a majority.

[Crookbond]

Given AAP's impressive numbers in all opinion polls it will be sad if educated people continue to vote for the same crap in BJP and Congress. These numbers are not in the 5-10% range where incremental votes will not make a difference. My dream scenario - neither the BJP or Congress are able to form a government. There are re-elections and AAP wins a majority.

This can only not happen if everyone is willing to indulge beyond the petty rhetoric and think about actual issues. Very few people are interested in being "hands on" (getting back to the basics) - everyone wants a silver bullet or a quick fix. In such a scenario, rationale tosses out of the window. On this very same forum, you will see such an attitude. But, I hope some day they come around the idea that politicians are "servants" and not "leaders".

[saneindian]

AAP wins a majority? Let them have at least 15-20 good candidates first. As I have said on the thread before, AAP's numbers in the opinion polls are on the higher side. 4-5 seats and 8-10% vote share would be a good result for them. Their worst nightmare will be either of the major parties getting a majority. Will make them a bit irrelevant in Delhi politics. Also, as the two major parties launch their campaign in full throttle, think AAP will start becoming a bit of a footnote. Plus they have started to lose some support slowly, an auto union which was supporting them for sometime has withdrawn its support, a lot of dissent being reported on candidate selection, Kejriwal's style of functioning being questioned with talk of a coterie making all key decisions without a due process etc. Not very different from how the other two parties function.

[The Outsider]

I would have accepted the 8-10% hypothesis if it was just one or two opinion polls predicting a 15-20% share for AAP - but all opinion polls are in that range and none in the 8-10% range. Moreover, usually the voting percentage of new parties in polls is underestimated. Furthermore, this is a growth - they were around the 7-8% range 6 months back and now closer to the polls have gone up to the 15-20% range.

[The Outsider]

But' date=' I hope some day they come around the idea that politicians are "servants" and not "leaders".[/quote'] I would even be happy if people treat politicians as leaders. However as is the evidence on this forum, Modi is treated no less than a bhagwaan by his bhakts where even an abuse on him is enough to invite personal abuses and question the very existence of this site.

[saneindian]

I would have accepted the 8-10% hypothesis if it was just one or two opinion polls predicting a 15-20% share for AAP - but all opinion polls are in that range and none in the 8-10% range. Moreover' date=' usually the voting percentage of new parties in polls is underestimated. Furthermore, this is a growth - they were around the 7-8% range 6 months back and now closer to the polls have gone up to the 15-20% range.[/quote'] The recent trends of assembly polls suggest the voting %age of new parties are overestimated in opinion polls. Peace Party in UP, People's Party of Punjab (Manprit Badal), Gujarat Parivartan Party of Keshubhai and other ex-CMs, Yedyurappa's KJP - were all expected to poll a lot higher than the tally they ended with. Also, important to point out that BSP with a 14% vote share, won 2 seats in 2008 and had 49 of its candidates forfeiting their deposits. AAP though will have the advantage of having a much wider voter base not limited to specific communities.

[randomGuy]

The recent trends of assembly polls suggest the voting %age of new parties are overestimated in opinion polls. Peace Party in UP, People's Party of Punjab (Manprit Badal), Gujarat Parivartan Party of Keshubhai and other ex-CMs, Yedyurappa's KJP - were all expected to poll a lot higher than the tally they ended with. Also, important to point out that BSP with a 14% vote share, won 2 seats in 2008 and had 49 of its candidates forfeiting their deposits. AAP though will have the advantage of having a much wider voter base not limited to specific communities.

AAPs candidates are very good too. http://delhi.aamaadmiparty.org/Delhi-Elections-2013/CandidateList I would like for you to click on names in the link above to see their bio. Its impressive the way they have published it IMO.

[saneindian]

AAPs candidates are very good too. http://delhi.aamaadmiparty.org/Delhi-Elections-2013/CandidateList I would like for you to click on names in the link above to see their bio. Its impressive the way they have published it IMO.

Have read about every candidate they have announced so far. Totally random and unknown names in most of the places. Most of them are outsiders and have got the tickets as they have been with Kejriwal since the Anna movement days. Many of them ex-Congress and BJP guys who have never got tickets from those parties and Kejriwal is projecting them as honest hard workers who were never recognized by their parties. Some of the candidates are local RTI activists or those running small and relatively unknown NGOs. Another handicap is Kejriwal has not given caste equations any considerations at all. It sounds like a great idea but like it or not, elections in India are still fought on caste consideration and baring some urban pockets, voting is also on similar patterns. Delhi has at least 60-65% constituencies in Delhi-Dehaat where jats, ahirs, gujjars and dalits are the major vote banks. and some 5-7 constituencies purvanchalis (from Bihar and UP) play a major role and in another 5-7 Punjabis are the dominant community. AAP's biggest strength though is its booth level workers, most of them young students who have been running an enthusiastic door to door awareness campaign and voter registration camps. But these teams are active in selected constituencies thus limiting AAP's presence.

[randomGuy]

Have read about every candidate they have announced so far. Totally random and unknown names in most of the places. Most of them are outsiders and have got the tickets as they have been with Kejriwal since the Anna movement days. Many of them ex-Congress and BJP guys who have never got tickets from those parties and Kejriwal is projecting them as honest hard workers who were never recognized by their parties. Some of the candidates are local RTI activists or those running small and relatively unknown NGOs. Another handicap is Kejriwal has not given caste equations any considerations at all. It sounds like a great idea but like it or not, elections in India are still fought on caste consideration and baring some urban pockets, voting is also on similar patterns. Delhi has at least 60-65% constituencies in Delhi-Dehaat where jats, ahirs, gujjars and dalits are the major vote banks. and some 5-7 constituencies purvanchalis (from Bihar and UP) play a major role and in another 5-7 Punjabis are the dominant community. AAP's biggest strength though is its booth level workers, most of them young students who have been running an enthusiastic door to door awareness campaign and voter registration camps. But these teams are active in selected constituencies thus limiting AAP's presence.

I remember reading abt screening process and how many candidates had applied for the seats. They have named better candidates than bjp/congress i believe. the known names are ofcourse Kejriwal, sisodia and Shazia Ilmi. They might not have given it as great an importance, but its not like they have acted totally against caste setup. I see following names in the list - Baljeet Singh Maan, Jagdeep Rana ,Gulab Singh Yadav, Mukesh Kr. Dagar, Col. Devindra Sehrawat (Retd), Jai Bhagwan Tanwar ,Commando Surender Singh, Mukesh Hooda, Hrishipal Pehalwan

[Crookbond]

Of course there will be "unknown" names - most known names are sitting up there in the assembly forming quid pro quo deals.

[saneindian]

And these AAP candidates are honest upright people because Kejriwal gave them tickets? The best part is any of the Congress-BJP neta who jumps over to AAP suddenly takes a dip in the Gangotri and becomes a non corrupt, hard working social worker! And celebs like Kiran Bedi or Gen VK Singh who do not cross over to AAP become 'questionable characters'.

[Crookbond]

Oh - so now the "Proof of Burden" fallacy. Sigh! Each and every candidate's details are given on the website - if you think they are dishonest please point it out. Also, unlike other great parties - I don't think AAP is ready to have corrupt people in their parties. Until then, there is no reason to believe otherwise. Currently, all I see is blanket baseless "sound bytes" not different from what an NDTV or Aaj Tak does - Kejriwal is Maoist, Candidates are Bla-bla.

[saneindian]

Burden of proof fallacy? Aah, the same shoot and scoot ploy through which Kejriwal has built his party? Hit and run without taking anything to conclusion. Baat wahi hai, ek main imandar baki sab beiman, Bhaiya honest hone ka certification chaalu kiya hai? Hamare saath aao, you are honest, go to any other party, chor ho tum As for not having corrupt people in the party, start with the founders Mayank Gandhi and Anjali Damaniya and not to forget the Bhushan father-son duo. Obviously some internal lokpal has cleared them so yay they are certified as honest. BTW what proof have you produced for 'quid pro quo deals ' being sealed in the assembly? Would love to see some of that :--D

[Crookbond]

I don't see any proof of any AAP candidate being corrupt and still in the party. If you say some candidates in AAP are corrupt PROVE IT else you can zip up. Easy to make allegations - difficult to prove. Best to tone down before this discussion goes down the drain. Pick up one point and prove it - let us see what mud you've got.

[saneindian]

I don't see any proof of any AAP candidate being corrupt and still in the party. If you say some people are corrupt PROVE IT else you can zip up. Easy to make allegations - difficult to prove.

DM you are no one to ask me to zip up. What I write on ICF is absolutely none of your business. You've an issue with my posts, report it to the mods. Have said this to you earlier as well. You don't like my posts, you also have the ignore option. Thanks

[saneindian]

Don't take a high moral ground now. You have this silly habbit of getting personal frequently. No one's forcing you to respond to my posts.

[Crookbond]

I don't think asking for corroboration of a baseless statement made is any sign of getting "personal". I think I stand within my rights to ask to stop posting doctored lies. And guess what? You have a problem you can report it or ignore it. :winky: I don't get personal - I reply in the same tone the original post was made. Some can't handle the heat and then throw fits. I hope we're done with the lectures - I would appreciate if we get back to the topic and move on.

[Sachin=GOD]

Kejriwal isn't the leader Delhi is looking for.

[randomGuy]

Kejriwal isn't the leader Delhi is looking for.

He is standing from the seat which shiela dikshit has won from last so many times. Would be interesting to see who wins the shiela vs kejri dual. Shiela better not think of kejri as a kal ka launda. I am voting for bjp as always btw.

[Sachin=GOD]

He is standing from the seat which shiela dikshit has won from last so many times. Would be interesting to see who wins the shiela vs kejri dual. Shiela better not think of kejri as a kal ka launda. I am voting for bjp as always btw.

Kejriwal himself might win, especially seeing how Sheila Dixit has become increasingly unpopular but if Cong decides to go for someone else (like Ajay Maken) as CM candidate then Kejriwal would have a very tough fight.