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Who's Going to be the Bowler of the Next Decade?

Dhondy

By Dhondy
in Cricket Talk

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Dhondy Newbie

Dhondy

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Some good responses there, but I was hoping for more...much more. These kind of exercises are fascinating because yes, it tests your judgement to see if you are a true talent spotter, albeit it can be frustrating to wait for ten years to find out whether you were right or not, but more than that, it exposes current form as a poor arbiter of what's going to happen in the future. Truth be told, there is simply no template, no model that can be used to predict such things. It's purely an exercise in guesswork, which absolves you lot from the blanket assertions you've been making on this thread, without a shred of statistical or other evidence to back it up.:D Let's examine the three tyros of the 80s. Was there any evidence at the commencement of that decade at all that Imran Khan, Richard Hadlee and Malcolm Marshall would terrify batsmen the world over through the best part of the next 10 years? You'd be surprised. Imran made his debut in June 1971. Fully 9 years later, in January 1980, he had taken 103 wickets @ 31.64, with a SR of 68.8. Another trundler, surely? You've seen in the OP what he did over the next 10 years, haven't you? Midway through 1980, the great Malcolm Marshall had a paltry 13 wickets after his first six Tests, earned at an average of 49.0, and a SR of 101.7. After another six Tests, at around the same stage where RP singh is today, he was still averaging only 31.88. It took him 27 Tests to average below 25. By his 55th, that average was below 20, and it never crossed 21 through the rest of his career. Sir Hadlee had been a Test cricketer for 7 years in 1980, having played 30 Tests, and was still averaging only 28.65 with the ball. He finished 56 Tests and more than 300 wickets later with an average of 22.29. Does it always work like that? Great bowlers beginning slowly, picking up steam throughout their career, frightening batsmen with their reputation, and finishing in a blaze of glory? Usually. You look at the career of our own Kapil Dev, or greats like Wasim Akram and Michael Holding and you will find the exact same parallels. Usually, but not invariably. In August 1980, three years into his career, Sir Ian Botham had played 30 Tests, bagged a phenomenal 152 wickets and was averaging 19.47 with the ball, at a SR of 46.1. Over the next ten years, he averaged 32.39 with the ball, with a SR of 61.6. Now you come back and tell me that Steyn will be the decade leader ahead of the likes of Ishant based on his first 20 Tests! I hope you can begin to see what an impossible, yet fascinating job the prediction-game is! What lessons does all this carry for us, and indeed for those who really matter- the selectors? If you see genuine promise in a bowler in his first 5, 10, 15 Tests, as we did with Ishant, with Sreesanth, with RP, then don't give up just because they are averaging in the 30s or 40s. Stick with them, give them every chance to realise their potential, back them to the hilt, home and away, and you might just have another Marshall, Hadlee or Imran Khan on your hands, if you are really fortunate. What about my decade leading bowler? No brainer. It's Ishant Sharma, age 19, ahead of RP Singh, age 22, Dale Steyn, age 24, and Sreesanth, age 25. As for the rest, Asif, age 25, plagued by injuries and starved of performance enhancing drugs, will fade away like Botham. Lee and Sidebottom are already 30 and have a maximum of 5 years of shelf life left. Southee might well do a Bond, but he needs at least two extra yards of speed to trouble the best in the world on unhelpful tracks. Hallelujah.

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f.b.m Newbie

f.b.m

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Does it always work like that? Great bowlers beginning slowly, picking up steam throughout their career, frightening batsmen with their reputation, and finishing in a blaze of glory?
You've got a point. What you are showing would apply to people like Brett Lee, but sometimes the ingredients to get lots of wickets are obvious from the start.
Now you come back and tell me that Steyn will be the decade leader ahead of the likes of Ishant based on his first 20 Tests! I hope you can begin to see what an impossible, yet fascinating job the prediction-game is!
Here is Waqar Younis's career in his first 19 tests and below that are Dale Steyn's current stats: 
Mat  	  	Wkts  	  	Ave  	Econ  	SR  	5  	10  

19  	 	93  	 	20.51  	3.05  	40.2  	10  	2
20              105             21.80   3.62    36.1     7       2

Simply too many simlarities to ignore. And the essentials to get wickets are there.

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Vignesh Newbie

Vignesh

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Irfan - allrounder of the upcoming decade maybe...
:hysterical::hysterical::hysterical::haha::haha::haha: IRFAN allrounder???????????? Great Joke..... An allrounder is a person who can bat n bowl well consistently..... Irfan clicks with the bat once in a while....... With the ball well guys we all know what his problems are.........
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