The Outsider Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 Actually it's the other way round in Bihar. BJP (especially Sushil Modi) been running the coalition without any hiccups....Any other party would've quit the coalition with JD(u) by now.. BJP has already lost Naveen Patnaik and can't rely on Mamta Kulkarni and Jayalalitha for any long lasting relationship. They can't even think of abandoning Bihar. As for Nitish he will win with or without BJP support in Bihar now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Outsider Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 Only after he became confident he had a solid base in Bihar and when Lalu was sidelined. Modi campaigned in Bihar along with Nitish in 2004 LS elections' date=' and the two 2005 assembly elections. Till the time Nitish was weak in Bihar, he needed Modi, he welcomed him, but when he realized Modi may lead to some erosion in his muslim votes, he kept Modi at bay.[/quote'] Nitish needed Modi? Do you think Modi had any part to play in the 2005 elections in Bihar. More like Nitish needed BJP and did not risk losing the coalition by abandoning Modi. Once he established his hold it's the BJP which is the weaker party in the coalition by far and Nitish can dictate terms like showing Modi the door. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sachin=GOD Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 BJP has already lost Naveen Patnaik and can't rely on Mamta Kulkarni and Jayalalitha for any long lasting relationship. They can't even think of abandoning Bihar. As for Nitish he will win with or without BJP support in Bihar now. He won't. In the 2010 elections BJP won nearly 90% of the seats it contested (91 out of 102) while JDU won 81% of the seats it contested (115 out of 141) so JDU is still very much dependent on BJP in Bihar. Infact both parties contested nearly the same number of seats in the 2010 elections as they did in 2005 but BJP got far better results as compared to JDU. So IMO going solo in Bihar is not an option for JDU because even now its not in a position to win Bihar on its own and the parties apart from BJP (Cong or RJD) are so weak that all of them can't hope to win anything more than 40 seats combined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Outsider Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 He won't. In the 2010 elections BJP won nearly 90% of the seats it contested (91 out of 102) while JDU won 81% of the seats it contested (115 out of 141) so JDU is still very much dependent on BJP in Bihar. Infact both parties contested nearly the same number of seats in the 2010 elections as they did in 2005 but BJP got far better results as compared to JDU. So IMO going solo in Bihar is not an option for JDU because even now its not in a position to win Bihar on its own and the parties apart from BJP (Cong or RJD) are so weak that all of them can't hope to win anything more than 40 seats combined. BJP won because of Nitish Kumar's performance. BJP does not have any traditional base or support in Bihar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
asterix Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 I'd really love JD (U) to get along with Congress. Congress has been warming up to Nitish for long now. But for that Congress has to dump it's loyalist Laloo.. It'll be fun.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sachin=GOD Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 BJP won because of Nitish Kumar's performance. BJP does not have any traditional base or support in Bihar. Lalu was in power till 2004 so in 2005 whatever seats BJP won, it did on its own :dontknow: Also, Nitish Kumar is the CM so he's obviously the one who is known as the cause of all the development in Bihar but the reality is that Sushil Modi, while not so wel known outside Bihar, has a very good image as a development oriented leader in Bihar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sachin=GOD Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 I'd really love JD (U) to get along with Congress. Congress has been warming up to Nitish for long now. But for that Congress has to dump it's loyalist Laloo.. It'll be fun.. It may happen but it won't suit Nitish - Congress is very weak in Bihar and BJP has now become quite strong so dumping BJP and joining hands with Cong would mean Nitish winning less seats in Lok Sabha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Outsider Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 Lalu was in power till 2004 so in 2005 whatever seats BJP won, it did on its own :dontknow: Also, Nitish Kumar is the CM so he's obviously the one who is known as the cause of all the development in Bihar but the reality is that Sushil Modi, while not so wel known outside Bihar, has a very good image as a development oriented leader in Bihar. But in 2005 they won what 40-50 seats IIRC? And their performance as a ratio of the seats contested was much poorer than JD-U. The 2010 election was fought completely on Nitish's development agenda and even if he went alone he will win. Of course not the kind of landslide of 2010, but still enough to give him a majority or very close to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
asterix Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 It may happen but it won't suit Nitish - Congress is very weak in Bihar and BJP has now become quite strong so dumping BJP and joining hands with Cong would mean Nitish winning less seats in Lok Sabha. He should do it. Instead of giving threats to BJP every other day, he should go solo or join hands with Congress... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sachin=GOD Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 But in 2005 they won what 40-50 seats IIRC? And their performance as a ratio of the seats contested was much poorer than JD-U. The 2010 election was fought completely on Nitish's development agenda and even if he went alone he will win. Of course not the kind of landslide of 2010, but still enough to give him a majority or very close to it. In 2005 JDU's performance as a ratio of seats contested was also not good. If, as you say, the 2010 election really was just about Nitish's development agenda so how was it that BJP (which contested the same number of seats as 2005) won 36 more seats than it did in 2005 while JDU (which contested 2 more seats than it did in 2005) won 28 more seats than it did in 2005 ?? How was it that the improvement in BJP's performance vis-a-vis 2005 was more than what JDU could achieve ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sachin=GOD Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 He should do it. Instead of giving threats to BJP every other day' date=' he should go solo or join hands with Congress... [/quote'] Chances are that he will do it if BJP keeps on going "Modi Modi Modi Modi...." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Outsider Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 In 2005 JDU's performance as a ratio of seats contested was also not good. If, as you say, the 2010 election really was just about Nitish's development agenda so how was it that BJP (which contested the same number of seats as 2005) won 36 more seats than it did in 2005 while JDU (which contested 2 more seats than it did in 2005) won 28 more seats than it did in 2005 ?? How was it that the improvement in BJP's performance vis-a-vis 2005 was more than what JDU could achieve ? These minor discrepancies can happen. Even BJP was fighting the election on Nitish's development agenda and happened to fare a bit better. It's not a thing to be taken too seriously. Look at what happened to the BJP once Naveen Patnaik gave them the boot. BJP are piggybacking on Nitish in Bihar and owe their last success to him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sachin=GOD Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 These minor discrepancies can happen. Even BJP was fighting the election on Nitish's development agenda and happened to fare a bit better. It's not a thing to be taken too seriously. Look at what happened to the BJP once Naveen Patnaik gave them the boot. BJP are piggybacking on Nitish in Bihar and owe their last success to him. If JDU leaves NDA and fights 2014 with UPA (or alone) then you'll see what I mean when I say that JDU has not achieved that position where it can win Bihar on its own or with the help of Cong/RJD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Outsider Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 If JDU leaves NDA and fights 2014 with UPA (or alone) then you'll see what I mean when I say that JDU has not achieved that position where it can win Bihar on its own or with the help of Cong/RJD. Last elections were by far the best showing of BJP in Bihar's history and the elections before that is their only other decent return. Both fought in alliance with JD-U. They've been a marginal player in the state forever. As I said it won't be a landslide for JD-U like last time but they will be in a position to form the government even without BJP. Though I don't see it happening unless BJP officially declare Modi as the PM candidate, which I don't think even they are stupid enough to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sachin=GOD Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 Last elections were by far the best showing of BJP in Bihar's history and the elections before that is their only other decent return. Both fought in alliance with JD-U. They've been a marginal player in the state forever. As I said it won't be a landslide for JD-U like last time but they will be in a position to form the government even without BJP. Though I don't see it happening unless BJP officially declare Modi as the PM candidate, which I don't think even they are stupid enough to do. Its the same for JDU as well. JDU will not be in a position to reach the half way mark even with the support of both Cong and RJD if it leaves NDA. And I also don't think Modi will be declared the PM candidate so most JDU will stay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Outsider Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 Its the same for JDU as well. JD-U is a breakaway from Janata Dal who have had a significant base in Bihar. BJP/Jan Sangh have never had a base in Bihar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sachin=GOD Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 JD-U is a breakaway from Janata Dal who have had a significant base in Bihar. BJP/Jan Sangh have never had a base in Bihar. Yes but JDU as a Party has only done well since they got into a coalition with BJP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Outsider Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 Yes but JDU as a Party has only done well since they got into a coalition with BJP. Of course BJP has played it's part in JD-U's success in Bihar but it is quite clearly the junior partner of the alliance and not indispensable in the current scenario where Nitish is the indisputable face of Bihar's progress like Naveen Patnaik in Orissa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomainK Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 This is a poor reflection. Where is the effin chicken biryani and cheap alcohol before votes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sachin=GOD Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 Modi may be unacceptable to many current and potential allies of the BJP but it seems that the very idea of Modi as PM candidate has revitalized many BJP workers who had been disillusioned with the party leadership since AB Vajpayee retired. BTW, Nitish Kumar is playing a really, really shrewd game here - he's constantly opposing modi to make sure that he gets the Muslim votes in Bihar and thus gets a substantial number of seats which would make JDU the most important partner of the BJP in case of a good showing by the NDA in 2014 and at the same time he's also making overtures to the Congress so in the event of a good result for the Congress, he may be in position to join UPA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts