Who are favourites for 2015 world cup?

[Harsh Thakor]

Arguably no world cup has been so competitive.One almost envisages it as a race with a photo-finish between 4 horses.Morally,there is hardly much to choose between the teams if you asses performance in the last 4 years after the world cup.In periods India enjoyed ascendancy at the top like during I.C.C.mini world cup in England in 2013.England defeated the officially top one day side now Australia in an O.D.I..series in 2013.South Africa and Australia have both defeated each other in the last year.By starnge calculation New Zealand baeth South Africa ina series in South Africa and exactely the oposie tok place between the 2 teams in New Zealand earlier this year.Although Pakistan lost 2 series to the Proteas they were defeated in hardfought battles in South Africa and Sharjah.Thus on it's day Pakistan could turn the tables on the best teams.New Zealand has conquered Sri Lakna and Pakistan while South Africa last summer beat the Lankans in Sri Lanka itself.Never have team sbeen so close to each other as the last 3 years ever in the history of the one day game.It was bset reflected on how close India,Sri Lanka and Australia were to each other in the Carlton United Triangular series in 2012 in Australia when any of the 3 teams could have won.With a bit of luck India would have entered the final and Sri Lanka would habe beaten Australia in the best of 3 final.At times even England had ascendancy like against the Proteas in 2012 and 2013 in the I.C.C.trophy. However going by just last year statistically South Africa and Australia stand at the top On the next pedestal are India,Sri Lanka and New Zealand.Assesing the current form I would promote the kiwis to join the top 2 sides.England,West Indies and Pakistan are at the bottom rung of the ladder.Without doubt Australasia have been the most professional ,cohesive and consistent unit.Although Australia beat the Proteas by a 4-1 margin in the recent series the verdict could have well gone 3-2 in favour of South Africa had it shown more resolve and determination. I don't think consistency in matches in one day series is the only factor to account for.We have to also consider the results in finals of tournaments ,wins overseas and the man to man talent. I have really been surprised that world cup winning teams like Clive Lloyd and al-ltime great batsmen like Viv Richards class India as one of the favourites as well as Ricky Ponting.I fail to understand how India stand ahead of South Africa and New Zealand.Clive Lloyd,Alan Border ,Ricky Ponting and Amir Sohail make Australia favourites ,while Dean Jones ,Brian Lara and Martin Crowe place South Africa as the favourites.New Zealand has been under-estimated. My ranking for this world Cup. After careful study to me Australia,South Africa and New Zealand are joint favourites with Sri Lanka and India marginally behind.Pakistan are a dark horse . 1.Australia No team is more professional,determined or plays as such a cohesive unit.It has batting and bowling talent and above all strong depth in batting with even Starc capable of scoring a fifty.Has some class all-rounders who can turn games like Watson and Faulkner.Have graet batsmen like David Warner,Michael Clarke,Steve Smith ,all-rounders like George Bailey,Shane Watson or James Faulkner , match-winning bowler in Mitchel Johnson aided by the talent of Starc and Faukner.Although beaten overseas in the last few years showed an aura of invincibility in recent series in Australia.No team has ever exhibited better temperament than Australia in the history of the cup who have never lost a semi-final.Very few home team shave won the world cup but last time India broke the jinx. 2.South Africa Man to man the best team of the tournament.If it had not been for previous history I would have made South Africa clear favourites.Imagine having a batting line up with Hashim Amla,A.B.Devilliers,DuPlessis,Decock,David Miller and bowlers like Dale Steyn Mone Morkel and Vernon Philanderer.Devilliers and Amla may be callsed with the top 10 batsmen of all time while Steyn may be the best of all pacemen.It also has a spinner in Imran Tahir.Howevever it's weakness is it's lack of depth in batting with a strong tail and absence of all-rounders.Maybe marginallly below 1999 unit.Howeverhas more match-winners than any team.What counts against the Proteas is History.South Africa lacks that crucial ingredient of match-winning killer instinct which a team nbeeds to win the world cup like Pakistan,Sri Lanka or Australia espalier.They have to work on formulating a strategy in run chases where they often falter.Above all they have to overcome barriers in the mind and build a more organized approach in run chases.It is mere temperament that cost them victory in 199 9semi-final or even 1996 and 2011 quarter final .No team deserves the coveted title more or has been as unfortunate not to win the world cup.South Africa has a jinx of not winning the world cup.What is most important is that South Africa reaches it's peak at the right time and not too eraly as in 1996,1999 and 2011.It should critically analyze it's errors in previous world cups.It should also self-critically asses it's reasons for defeat in recent series against Australia which they could well have won 3-2 instead of losing 4-1.I give the Proteas a strong chance of breaking their world cup jinx this time out. The strength of the SA squad-Posted Analysis of Graeme Smith nad Rahul Dravid on cricinfo. Smith: I feel like it's a good opportunity for many reasons - we have match-winners with both bat and ball, more than we've ever had in the top five. The key changes we have in this line-up is that we've got attacking bowling, the one that can take wickets and we have an attacking spinner which is a big thing for a South African team. Dravid: One area in this team that differs from the other South African teams is that they don't have that allrounder at No. 7. They don't have anyone in their top five or six that can bowl medium-pace. The success of AB de Villiers Smith: He's a very motivated guy, really driven by the energy of what's going on around him. That's the way he will lead. I think instinctively, and tactically he's grown over time. Dravid: It's sensational what he does with the bat. Just his flexibility, being able to bat in the top order, he could come in if you lose a couple of early wickets and still perform a great role and bat you to a position of strength or if you've got a good start, finish your games off under pressure as well. Hashim Amla as an ODI opener Smith: He's like that guy who you don't really know is killing you, but he's killing you. He is going to be another key performer for South Africa. If he's getting runs, it takes a lot of pressure off everybody else. The role Dale Steyn will play Dravid: You want wickets upfront from him. There are not many people who can swing the ball at pace. That's a priceless asset to have. Smith: He will be extremely motivated in this World Cup. He would want to make a big impact, I think he's fresh. The key as a captain is that you're always going to use him at the tough times: Powerplay, death, upfront. The strength of the pace attack Smith: They're blessed - [Morne] Morkel, [Vernon] Philander, Steyn are three of the best at the moment. Vernon has still got a question mark over his head in ODI, stamina towards the back end is going to be his challenge. Dravid: We've seen with Steyn and Morkel that at the time of the death overs, they haven't been able to execute the yorkers in T20s. But those conditions might be different from what they might encounter. 3.New Zealand Arguably the most balanced New Zealand team ever to contest the world cup.It has a lethal bowling attack with the likes of Tim Southee, Trent Boult,a strong batting line -up with Brendon Mcullam ,Ross Taylor ,Kayne Williamson.No team has been as consistent as the Kiwis in reaching the semi-finals and they almost reached the final in 1979 and 1992.It has a prowess for batting deep and having all-rounders.In recent months they have outplayed Sri Lanka and Pakistan ,that too in Sharjah.It is one of the most rejuvenated New Zealand team of recent times.Have an advantage of playing on their home turf.I back this side in run chases as it has some of the most destructive hitters.History may well be on the side of the Kiwis this time. Former South Africa captain Graeme Smith believes New Zealand's World Cup 2015 squad has "more strength" in both the batting and bowling departments that it did in previous editions of the tournament, giving them a greater chance of success this time. Smith was speaking on Contenders, ESPNcricinfo's World Cup 2015 preview show. Smith's co-panelist on the show, former India captain Rahul Dravid, agreed with him, tagging New Zealand as "serious contenders" for the title. "They have [Daniel] Vettori back in the spin department, and with [Tim] Southee, [Trent] Boult, [Mitchell] McClenaghan and [Kyle] Mills they have a solid pace attack," Smith said. "If you look at their batting you have Brendon McCullum, Kane Williamson and Ross Taylor, who are three outstanding batters. I think those three guys can certainly take the game away." Dravid agreed with Smith about the depth of New Zealand's pace attack giving them a distinct edge over other teams. "They've got different combinations and different kinds of skills in that fast-bowling department," Dravid said. "They have some good death bowlers, someone like a Tim Southee has bowled well in the death, Boult has bowled well in the death. So I think they've got a really, really good pace attack. That's why you look at them and you think these guys are one of the serious contenders." 4.Sri Lanka Although talented and experienced look a rather jaded and demoralized team.Man to an up with the best but have been in poor form in recent months.Malinga i snot at his best and nor is Mahela Jayewardene.However if Sangakaara comes good with Mahela,Dilshan,Matthews etc Sri Lanka can pull of a win on it's day.Need to lift their game. 5.India Posesses arguably the strongest batting line up but lacks the support of all-rounders and a good bowling attack.The likes of Virat Kohli,Rohit Sharma,Ajinkya Rahane ,Mahendra Singh Dhoni Shikar Dhawan can demoralize any bowling attck with the help of Ravi Jadeja.The attack of Mohammad Shami,Umesh Yadav,and Bhuvanesh Kumar lacks penetration and a sense of planning.A rather in-experienced team .Needs to ressurect its form.On it's day may even sail through but I feel will struggle to adjust to the conditions.If it can develop the same mental attitude as in the 2011 cup and 1999 I.C.C.trophy in England may lift the title.Organization of strtaegy is very vital. 6.Pakistan Will have to rise like a phoenix from the Ashes and ressurect themselves from the grave to win this edition of the world Cup.However if I would back any team to come out of the gallows or the gloom of darkness it is Pakistan.We can never forget how they came back like wounded tigers in 1992 and came so close in 2011.The most determining factor will be their bowing attack which can be a most potent force.In recent times never forget how they have challenged powerful teams .Very little experience in bating but who knows wast may occur is Misbha ul Haq,Younus Khan or Umar Akma come to the party.Pakistan has abetter record overseas than India from 1992 onwards. 7.England Have a fine attack with Anderson ,Broad and particularly Finn who can be deadly However do not have strong batting to back the attack.The likes of Bell,Stokes,Root ,Morgan and Broad etc give England some strength but it lacks depth.Captaincy will play an important factor. Who knows?If it has it's day England may upset and reach the semis. 8.West Indies Have some glorious hittters like Chris Gayle and Kiren Pollard who can reverse proceedings but overall cannot match up with the best.Basically competitive at T-20 level.Sadly excluded some great talent from the squad which may go against their chances. Below I have reproduced some vital statistics from The Inbox from cricinfo by Kartik Kannan in 'How the Teams stack Up."My gratitude to Kartik Kannan and The Inbox for this invaluable. research. Here are my findings: Record of top eight teams playing in Australia, New Zealand, England and South Africa over the last 25 months © ESPNcricinfo Ltd Enlarge Ranking of top eight sides based on recent results © ESPNcricinfo Ltd Enlarge Favourites - Australia, New Zealand, South Africa These three teams tick all the boxes, with a high win percentage in the last two years and strong numbers with both bat and ball. Level 1 - India, England, Sri Lanka Despite their weak bowling, India overall pack the most punch among sides ranked 4-8 in my simulation, with their batting coming to their rescue. England and Sri Lanka have shown signs of blooming a month before the World Cup, but haven't enjoyed great results over the last two years in the kind of conditions expected at the World Cup. All three are one-dimensional sides, and are dependent on good days when their skillsets somehow come together. I'd pick one of these sides for the semi-finals, and maybe all of them for the quarter-finals. Level 2 - Pakistan, West Indies These two sides have had poor runs of late, and have struggled to make an impact with both bat and ball. While Pakistan were in a more or less similar situation in 1992, their bowling had far more experience and penetration, and they had a decent batting line-up and a leader who made his men believe they were cornered tigers. This time around, they could still spring a surprise or two but recent history suggests they just about have enough in them to make the quarters. West Indies seem like an aged cobra without fangs, and hardly look like challenging anyone in this format.