Do you hate Pakistan?

[seedhi]

Obviously, the rise of extremism and the Taliban in Waziristan and the other FATA areas does have role in keeping the Pakistani military occupied to the extent to which they now don’t have the time, resources and bandwidth to actively arm, train and foster Kashmiri insurgents. But, to make a swooping statement like ‘Violence in Kashmir is down because Taliban is taking control’ is so naïve on two fronts; 1) After 9/11, when Afghanistan became the frontier on the War on Terror, the US and its allies chose Pakistan as some sort of base from which operations into Pakistan were launched. Consequently, on one side, the Pakistani establishment and military got billions of dollars worth of aid. On the other side, investigations into the 9/11 attacks and the subsequent 7/7 London bombings and the Spain bombings revealed that a significant portions of these attacks were planned by extremist elements in Pakistan, with both the covert and overt support from ISI and other Pakistani institutional elements. This very same people were also actively promoting Jihad in Kashmir. And this is when the Western allies told Pakistan that they cannot claim to be a frontline ally on the war on terror on their western front in Afghanistan and then actively support insurgency in Indian Kashmir. This categorical assertion by leaders from the west was what forced Pervez Musharraf to give the landmark speech that he gave in 2002, in which, for the first time, Pakistan openly declared that it will not promote violence or extremism. So, Pakistan had to tone down its activities in Indian Kashmir not because they wanted to, but because they were forced to, partly by their preoccupation on the Western front, but mostly due to pressure from Western governments.

This is the height of naivete. The reason that Musharraf was forced to tighten the tap of terrorism is not western pressure. It was because the Kashmiri militants like Jaish and other Punjabi based ones were turning rogue. And they did so because their mates the Taliban were betrayed by the pakistani establishment. So there is a direct correlation between the turmoil in pakistan and decrease in terrorism in Kashmir. Even the pakistanis are saying this. Currently the situation is that all the terrorist graduates of punjabi madarsas have joined their mates - the TTP. Otherwise they would have headed towards Kashmir. Tomorrow if the situation stabilizes in pakistan all these jehadis would once again be turned towards India.

2) In your assertion, you speak as though the rise of Taliban in Pakistan is a good thing, which is sort of incredulous. Can you even imagine what would happen if the entire Pakistani nation of 140 million were to be under the control of radicalized elements? Assuming they do manage to take control of Pakistan, do you know where they’re going to set their next sights on? Of course, it’d be Kashmir. So, rather than having to deal with some rogue elements within the current Pakistani establishment promoting Jihad in Kashmir, if the Taliban takes over Pakistan, we will now have an entire army of extremists gunning for Kashmir. Do you think that’s a good thing? For now, at least the Indian govt. can hope to negotiate and put pressure on the Pakistani govt. If that country is taken over by extremists, who will we talk to? The terrorists? And you know what they will say…? - ‘Eff you!’

With the Taliban ruling over pakistan, that country would be left without nukes (USA would remove them) and possibly an airforce or a proper army. India would be able to bomb away with impunity in pakistan without any international pressure or retaliation. Right now the paki nukes and weapons along with international pressure have tied our hands. There wont be any such restraints against the Taliban.

[Ram]

I hate Pakistan. Having lived in the ME for half of life, I reserves the right to do so! ViruRulez :adore: You can never make out from his posts that he's a muslim residing in India ! PS: Having biryani in the wee-hours gives you a hint though :--D

Terribly disappointed with that post man...

[seedhi]

No....India should leave the area alone for two reasons : 1. Morally, it's incorrect to occupy a region against the will of the people living there. 2. Politically and economically it will be a huge drain on Indian resources to manage an area which does not want to be part of the country. If instead of the Pakistan army withdrawing from the region, the people of PoK want to join India then India should integrate it.

Do you realize what you are saying goes against the very argument that India has for its rule over J&K presently? If India does not occupy PoK in face of pakistani withdrawal then what would India tell the Kashmiris who would like to reunite with their other half? India cannot go about taking a poll of who in PoK wants to join India, it will have to enter PoK no matter what. Frankly, I cant imagine India not taking PoK, this is exactly what we have been demanding for the last 60 years. By not taking PoK we would undermine our own authority over the present J&K.

[ViruRulez]

Lets conduct an fantastic experiment - suppose the pakistani army magically withdraws from PoK and says to India - go and take back your territory that you claim. What should India do? Ofcourse India will go and occupy PoK, it is infact obliged to by the same logic that the present Indian J&K is our territory.

Ok. I will explain to this in simple words. As Outsider mentioned, it is not right to force and occupy PoK against their wishes. So, I would not prefer to occupy PoK if not instigated. But at the same time, I firmly believe that we cannot let any part of our part of Kashmir to let go even through negotiations. The main reason for that is that there are many strategic places in Kashmir which we cannot let go as it would make our defense weak. And the more important reason is that if we let free any part of Kashmir even through negotiations then this might have create future problems internally with other rebel groups demanding their own independent provinces. India itself is an union of various people and its a prime example of "Unity in Diversity" and so all the diversities might also get chance to break the unity in case any part of Kashmir is let go irrespective of anything. I would prefer the present LOC to be made international border. On the Chinese front, we can act according to the mutual understanding I mentioned in my previous post. But there is one instance when occupying PoK is more than justifiable. And that would be if Paki government does not take concrete action and end terrorist camps in PoK. If that is not done soon, then I would infact encourage that India should occupy PoK and end all those terrorist camps and bring the rogues under control. But the way in which the Pakis are acting right now maybe this option might also need to be exercised within the next few years.

[seedhi]

^ Good post Morriz! While temporary instability in Pakistan might be good for India, it is extremely foolish to believe that a permanent Taliban takeover of Pakistan can remotely benefit India. Even if the world is somehow able to take the nukes away from Pakistan in such a scenario, Taliban are not a group who are going to rely on nukes anyway to cause problems in Kashmir and India. They will send an endless supply of armed militia into India and we will be left fighting a bleeding, guerrilla war in Kashmir, Punjab, and Rajasthan.

Do you realize that India would be able to use its entire war machine to exterminate the Taliban completely if they try to target India? There would be no international pressure. Once India manages to push the LoC northwards to a more manageable terrain, out western border would be rather secure. There is no way the Taliban would be able to infiltrate into India.

[Ram]

This is the height of naivete. The reason that Musharraf was forced to tighten the tap of terrorism is not western pressure. It was because the Kashmiri militants like Jaish and other Punjabi based ones were turning rogue. And they did so because their mates the Taliban were betrayed by the pakistani establishment. So there is a direct correlation between the turmoil in pakistan and decrease in terrorism in Kashmir. Even the pakistanis are saying this. Currently the situation is that all the terrorist graduates of punjabi madarsas have joined their mates - the TTP. Otherwise they would have headed towards Kashmir. Tomorrow if the situation stabilizes in pakistan all these jehadis would once again be turned towards India.

I would have countered this, but I then read the next part of your post and it blew me away so much that I have decided to respond to that only..

With the Taliban ruling over pakistan' date=' that country would be left without nukes (USA would remove them) and possibly an airforce or a proper army. [b']India would be able to bomb away with impunity in pakistan without any international pressure or retaliation. Right now the paki nukes and weapons along with international pressure have tied our hands. There wont be any such restraints against the Taliban.

What this post of your shows is that you have complete and almost total lack of understanding of’ Geopolitics, History, War and its costs, Counter insurgency, so much so that I am thinking if its even worth my time to debate with you. I especially love the ‘India would be able to bomb away with impunity in pakistan without any international pressure or retaliation’ because it almost reveals some sort of genocidal mentality that’s akin to suggesting ‘Oh, lets nuke ‘em all..’ That is truly scary And where do you get assertions from? The United States military is by far THE most sophisticated in the world. They spend $350 billion a year on their military, compared our piffling $20 billion. And yet, you claim our military would be able to control and destroy extremist elements in a country that has an ESTABLISHED army of 1 million and a population of 140 million, while the US army has floundered in its war against some rag-tag bunch of warlords and their followers in Afghanistan? What are you smoking my man? I am completely blown away by your total ignorance and lack of common sense. Your assertions are so disingenuous and lack any sort of factual or empirical backing. I suppose its this sort of deluded mentality that forces nations to go to war.

[dial_100]

Exactly. And the same logic can be applied to counter all those war-mongering right-wingers who actively promote an open war between India and Pakistan as means to ‘settle’ the issue once for all. Do they even have a remote clue as to what the consequences of that war might be? Lets assume the best case scenario for India, which would be that the West loses faith in Pakistan’s ability to safeguard its nukes and takes it away from. And lets say we take advantage of this moment and attack them. Obviously, it will be a conventional war (since India has a no-first-use policy of nuclear weapons..). At the most, what we can do is to destroy isolated terror elements and training facilities. Even if we successfully manage to do that, the moment we pull our troops back, the extremists will be back in their 1000s. And this time, rather than just a stupid old book with some dodgy sounding verses, they will have all the images of death and destruction caused by the Indian army during their invasion to radicalize people. So, rather than having to deal with a few thousand extremist elements, we would now deal with an entire generation of Pakistanis baying for our blood. The right-wingers talk in general terms as though as our struggle against Pakistan is winnable. Guess what? Its not. Unfortunately, as a nation, we’re caught in a moment of history where our population has become the victim of a radicalized ideology and a hostile neighbor and we’re powerless to do anything about, apart from fortifying our own defences. All we can do is protect our homeland as much as we can and hope that the passage of time corrects the course of history.

Has anyone heard of a speach by Musharaff in 1 city he visited in US.??? They dont need any Kashmir images of dead to do what they have to... It is just matter of time this condition in Pak improves for sure..Not just India, even US wont dare to attack pak directly for that matter..and..Sri... whatever happens, India wont attack..so that is out of question. Our biggest trouble is, Stable or unstable, Pak extremist will always be against India...Unlike, Indian right-wingers, these guys take guns and enter in our country...I dont have to prove neither..With nukes, this country will continue to dare and inflict smaller wounds on Indian soil.

[seedhi]

Ok. I will explain to this in simple words. As Outsider mentioned' date=' it is not right to force and occupy PoK against their wishes. So, I would not prefer to occupy PoK if not instigated. But at the same time, I firmly believe that we cannot let any part of our part of Kashmir to let go even through negotiations. The main reason for that is that there are many strategic places in Kashmir which we cannot let go as it would make our defense weak. And the more important reason is that if we let free any part of Kashmir even through negotiations then this might have create future problems internally with other rebel groups demanding their own independent provinces. [/quote']What you have written is completely contradictory. Fact is that India has claimed PoK for 60 years and if it gives a moral based excuse to not take control of the territory it would lose its right to govern the present J&K as well. Furthermore India would become the laughing stock of the whole world. For God's sake man, just think of it. Tomorrow, on 31 October 2009, pakistan announces that it is withdrawing from PoK and India is free to retake it. What should be the Indian response? HOW CAN INDIA NOT RETAKE IT? It would be utter humiliation. If India does not take back PoK it would have no reason to be in J&K as well (at least the Kashmir valley).

But there is one instance when occupying PoK is more than justifiable. And that would be if Paki government does not take concrete action and end terrorist camps in PoK. If that is not done soon, then I would infact encourage that India should occupy PoK and end all those terrorist camps and bring the rogues under control. But the way in which the Pakis are acting right now maybe this option might also need to be exercised within the next few years.

Sadly, the nukes with pakistan preclude such a step. That is why I say that a discredited, Taliban ruled, nuke-nude pakistan would be the best possible outcome for India.

[Ram]

Has anyone heard of a speach by Musharaff in 1 city he visited in US.??? They dont need any Kashmir images of dead to do what they have to... It is just matter of time this condition in Pak improves for sure..Not just India, even US wont dare to attack pak directly for that matter..and..Sri... whatever happens, India wont attack..so that is out of question. Our biggest trouble is, Stable or unstable, Pak extremist will always be against India...Unlike, Indian right-wingers, these guys take guns and enter in our country...I dont have to prove neither..With nukes, this country will continue to dare and inflict smaller wounds on Indian soil.

I see what you’re saying man.. Brainwashed elements don’t need too much encouragement to carry out their perverted agenda, but can you even imagine what would happen if an entire generation of millions of Pakistanis view India as some sort of hostile entity that HAS to be eliminated? I am sure, even now, there is a big proportion of Pakistanis that do not like India. But its one thing to dislike a country, but an entirely different matter to actively promote violence in that country. And if we ever send even a single fighter jet and drop a bomb that kills even just a handful civilians, you can effectively consider that as the official beginning of total anarchy between the people of the nations.

[The Outsider]

Do you realize what you are saying goes against the very argument that India has for its rule over J&K presently? If India does not occupy PoK in face of pakistani withdrawal then what would India tell the Kashmiris who would like to reunite with their other half? India cannot go about taking a poll of who in PoK wants to join India, it will have to enter PoK no matter what. Frankly, I cant imagine India not taking PoK, this is exactly what we have been demanding for the last 60 years. By not taking PoK we would undermine our own authority over the present J&K.

It's not a question of what India will do - it will never come down to it because by your own admission it is a fantasy that the Pakistan army will suddenly and unilaterally withdraw from PoK. It's a question of what India should do. You tell me is it morally right to occupy people who don't want to live under your rule? You tell me will India not suffer politically, economically, and militarily by taking over PoK? What exactly will India gain by taking PoK?

[seedhi]

And where do you get assertions from? The United States military is by far THE most sophisticated in the world. They spend $350 billion a year on their military' date=' compared our piffling $20 billion. And yet, you claim our military would be able to control and destroy extremist elements in a country that has an ESTABLISHED army of 1 million and a population of 140 million, while the US army has floundered in its war against some rag-tag bunch of warlords and their followers in Afghanistan? What are you smoking my man?[/quote']USA is fighting in a foreign land Afghanistan not on its own soil. Indian borders are already protected against the Pakistani army. Do you think that the Taliban would be a bigger force than the pakistani army which has nukes at its disposal. Let me make the difference clear for you:USA is fighting the battle as an invader INSIDE a land teeming with Taliban India would be defending itself against a rag tag taliban. There is a huge difference. The Taliban has zero capability to mount an invasion, they can only fight within their own lands as a guerilla force.

I am completely blown away by your total ignorance and lack of common sense. Your assertions are so disingenuous and lack any sort of factual or empirical backing. I suppose its this sort of deluded mentality that forces nations to go to war.

Let me tell you that this is not just my hypothesis. Check out Bharat-Rakshak, several posters over there have also come to the same conclusion as me. They probably know this stuff more than you or me. A professor in IIM Bangalore had a few months ago also written an article which articulated a similar hypothesis.

[The Outsider]

Do you realize that India would be able to use its entire war machine to exterminate the Taliban completely if they try to target India? There would be no international pressure. Once India manages to push the LoC northwards to a more manageable terrain' date= out western border would be rather secure. There is no way the Taliban would be able to infiltrate into India.

Do you have any touch with reality? How will you exterminate an army of 1 million people and hundreds of thousands of Taliban with an endless supply of weapons and ammunition? The US after 10 years has still not been able to exterminate rag tag outfits of Afghanistan and US does not even border the country so the average citizen is still safe.

[seedhi]

It's not a question of what India will do - it will never come down to it because by your own admission it is a fantasy that the Pakistan army will suddenly and unilaterally withdraw from PoK. It's a question of what India should do.

The answer is very simple - geopolitics dictates that India should occupy PoK when pakistan withdraws. Not doing so would undermine the legitimacy of its own rule in J&K.

You tell me is it morally right to occupy people who don't want to live under your rule? You tell me will India not suffer politically, economically, and militarily by taking over PoK? What exactly will India gain by taking PoK?

These are the exact same arguments bandied against Indian rule in Kashmir. I am surprised that any sensible Indian can buy into them. And no, I dont consider Arundhati Roy as a sensible person.

[seedhi]

Do you have any touch with reality? How will you exterminate an army of 1 million people and hundreds of thousands of Taliban with an endless supply of weapons and ammunition? The US after 10 years has still not been able to exterminate rag tag outfits of Afghanistan and US does not even border the country so the average citizen is still safe.

The reason USA has not been able to kill all the Taliban is that they enjoy support inside Afghanistan, and USA cannot indiscriminately bomb Afghanistan without killing civilians. I dont think India will be bound by any such compunction while dealing with a Taliban ruled pakistan. Secondly, our international border is more or less impregnable. The only problem is the LOC which will be fixed by moving it upwards appropriately. Please understand the diffence between the Taliban insurgency against USA in Afghanistan and a supposed Taliban invasion of India. The latter is simply impossible.

[dial_100]

I see what you’re saying man.. Brainwashed elements don’t need too much encouragement to carry out their perverted agenda' date=' but can you even imagine what would happen if an entire generation of millions of Pakistanis view India as some sort of hostile entity that HAS to be eliminated? I am sure, even now, there is a big proportion of Pakistanis that do not like India. But its one thing to dislike a country, but an entirely different matter to actively promote violence in that country. And if we ever send even a single fighter jet and drop a bomb that kills even just a handful civilians, you can effectively consider that as the official beginning of total anarchy between the people of the nations.[/quote'] Sri.... Tell you this....even if Taliba....takes over Pak... majority of population will not join them in their crazy movement of Jihad...And trust me on this...even if BJP forms the next govt in india, they wont attack Pak...But to nullify Indian right-wingers..we need to tighten our security and avoid even a slightest possibility of 11/16. For Pak to realize that India is too strong for them.. They should rather worry about the progress of their own people.., basic necessities like food, shelter and education could keep them busy for next 2 decades.

[ViruRulez]

What you have written is completely contradictory. Fact is that India has claimed PoK for 60 years and if it gives a moral based excuse to not take control of the territory it would lose its right to govern the present J&K as well. Furthermore India would become the laughing stock of the whole world. For God's sake man, just think of it. Tomorrow, on 31 October 2009, pakistan announces that it is withdrawing from PoK and India is free to retake it. What should be the Indian response? HOW CAN INDIA NOT RETAKE IT? It would be utter humiliation. If India does not take back PoK it would have no reason to be in J&K as well (at least the Kashmir valley). Sadly, the nukes with pakistan preclude such a step. That is why I say that a discredited, Taliban ruled, nuke-nude pakistan would be the best possible outcome for India.

At first the assumption that Pakis will leave PoK suddenly is far fetched from reality. I dont see that happening anywhere in the near future. And regarding we claiming it for 60 years, I believe in one thing which most other people do too. For me, past is history and if we go on worrying about it then it will not help us. Yes I understand the symbolic importance of getting back PoK but if I have to make a reality check will it happen so easily. And the sad answer is no. What I believe is that we should move ahead and let everything regarding the borders with both Pakistan and China be as they are now. I would prefer the present borders being made the international borders. But yes there are also a number of Indians who would also differ with the Pok, Tibet and Akshai Chin conflicts with me. But it is just my personal opinions and most people I have met and know about it express the same feelings. Regarding nukes, it is not just a kids game to nuke the other country suddenly. Neither would Pakistan nor India use nukes as they know that it would be terrible results for both nations. And more than that the world community would not allow it. And yes I also want Pakistan to be nuke-nude but that should not be through the Taliban. The Talibans are bigger rogues than even Pakis because they will not adhere to international laws under any circumstances and so if the Talibans get hold of the nukes it would be a big disaster not only for India but for the whole world. And Talibans cannot be controlled or global pressure cannot apply. Although I want the nukes to be taken away but I dont see that happening too. The safest bet would be that the US takes responsibility of the security of the Paki nukes.

[The Outsider]

The answer is very simple - geopolitics dictates that India should occupy PoK when pakistan withdraws. Not doing so would undermine the legitimacy of its own rule in J&K.

It would have been justifiable and correct at the time of independence, not now when it is abundantly clear that no one from PoK will want to live under Indian rule. In fact, India should secretly hope that it is never given the opportunity to take over PoK because it will not benefit India in the slightest and cause immense harm.

These are the exact same arguments bandied against Indian rule in Kashmir. I am surprised that any sensible Indian can buy into them. And no, I dont consider Arundhati Roy as a sensible person.

It's not clear cut what the population of Kashmir wants. Any semi intelligent person can make out what PoK wants.

[The Outsider]

The reason USA has not been able to kill all the Taliban is that they enjoy support inside Afghanistan, and USA cannot indiscriminately bomb Afghanistan without killing civilians.I dont think India will be bound by any such compunction while dealing with a Taliban ruled pakistan.

USA cannot indiscriminately bomb Afghanistan, but India will be able to do so!!

Secondly, our international border is more or less impregnable. The only problem is the LOC which will be fixed by moving it upwards appropriately.

I hope I don't get to see the day where we test the impregnability of our border against an army of 1.5 million people armed with some of the best weapons and no compunctions about killing civilians.

Please understand the diffence between the Taliban insurgency against USA in Afghanistan and a supposed Taliban invasion of India. The latter is simply impossible.

Who is talking about an all out invasion? It's going to be a guerrilla war and I have yet to see anything in history to suggest that a guerrilla war can be won against 1.5 million people with an endless supply of some of the best arms.

[SachDan]

Terribly disappointed with that post man...

Sri, Of late I have gone through lot of hardships in professional life here just because of those ****ing padosis and was just venting out my frustration.

[seedhi]

At first the assumption that Pakis will leave PoK suddenly is far fetched from reality. I dont see that happening anywhere in the near future.

I know, it was a thought experiment.

And regarding we claiming it for 60 years, I believe in one thing which most other people do too. For me, past is history and if we go on worrying about it then it will not help us. Yes I understand the symbolic importance of getting back PoK but if I have to make a reality check will it happen so easily. And the sad answer is no. What I believe is that we should move ahead and let everything regarding the borders with both Pakistan and China be as they are now. I would prefer the present borders being made the international borders.

If both pakistan agree, I would also agree to present international borders - in J&K, Aksai Chin and Arunachal. But sadly, that is also unlikely.

Regarding nukes, it is not just a kids game to nuke the other country suddenly. Neither would Pakistan nor India use nukes as they know that it would be terrible results for both nations. And more than that the world community would not allow it.

pakistan has repeatedly said it will use nukes unilaterally against India. So we cannot assume rationality from them.

And yes I also want Pakistan to be nuke-nude but that should not be through the Taliban.

There seems to be no other way to do this.

The Talibans are bigger rogues than even Pakis because they will not adhere to international laws under any circumstances and so if the Talibans get hold of the nukes it would be a big disaster not only for India but for the whole world.

That is why the world i.e. the USA and NATO will remove the nukes from pakistan before the Taliban takeover.

And Talibans cannot be controlled or global pressure cannot apply.

Would not matter, without the nukes they would be powerless to harm India

Although I want the nukes to be taken away but I dont see that happening too. The safest bet would be that the US takes responsibility of the security of the Paki nukes.

The USA will only confiscate the nukes when there is a danger of them falling to the Taliban. A Taliban ruled pakistan also has other benefits like the Kashmir issue will be settled automatically.