G_B_ Posted May 17, 2014 Share Posted May 17, 2014 When will this election happen? Who knows. It could be July if the current administration all resigns or there are plenty of defections. It could happen in the slated time of around October. Maharashtra is second only to UP in political importance. It is the largest Indian state by GDSP (gross domestic state product). Therefore the Maharashtra assembly elections rank only below the lok sabha elections and UP assembly elections. Winning Mark 145 seats. The Parties BJP-Sena-RPI(A)-SSS Currently 102 seats The Sena and BJP have been partners for a long time. Sena being the oldest coalition partner of the BJP. Sena provide cadre and muscle in Kumbai region Konkan and Western Maharashtra, while the BJP are strong in Marathwada and Viderabha. The RPI was an addition to the alliance a few years back when RPI leader Ramdas Athavle left the NCP-Congress. SSS was a recent addition. Proved their worth in the BMC elections in 2012. Sena--- linguistic party needing marathi votes in the mumbai region. More than caste, relies on lower middle class marathi votes in mumbai. Key leaders Udhav and Aditya Thakarey BJP--- is a Gujrati party in the Mumbai region. Outside its a party backed by upper castes and OBC groups. Leaders are Gopinath Munde in Marathwada Eknath Khadse in Desh region and Nitin Gadkari in Viderbha. SSS A farmers party in western Maharashtra. Like a farmers trade union. Historic enemies include the sugar barons of the NCP. Key leader Raju Shetti. RPI an SC outfit with 5-6 % of the vote across India. Curical in the Mumbai region where seats are won on a small margin. Key leader Ramdas Athavle. MNS Currently 13 seats Chasing the same vote of the Sena. Probably attracts more Marathi Muslims and is strong with the fishing community. One family will have father as sena cadre and son as MNS. Relies heavily on the personality and oratory skills of Raj T cousin of Udhav Thakarey. Strong presence in urban areas of Mumbai region, Nashik and Pune. Not much rural presence. MNS-- linguistic marathi party on the same lines of the sena. Key leader Raj Thakarey. Congress-NCP Currently 144 seats Pawar was formerly a congress president. He split when Sonia arrived. The NCP is made up of former congress ministers and defectors from the shiv sena. The congress has always been the grand old party of Maharashtra. Till 1995 they ruled Maharashtra without any partner and unchallenged. In 1995 the NCP and Congres fought the elections independently. The Sena-BJP won and they have been allies ever since. NCP-- depends on the Maratha vote and are concentrated in the region stretching from Navi mumbai to western Maharashtra. Key leaders Sharad Pawar and Ajit Pawar Congress--- They generally depend on the weaker sections of soceity. Though unlike the BJP Sena and NCP are most spread of all the parties. Ie they dont depend on any particular vote. Key Leaders Manikrao Thakre, Narayan Rane and Ashok Chavan. A note must be added that the death of Vilasrao Deshmukh has left a big hold in Marathwada. Others Maharashtra historically has had plenty of independents. Looking through the last 3-4 election cycles they are been in the region of 20-30. Most of these independents will back the alliance with the most seats. Which means there is a good chance an alliance can govern well with 130 seats. Issues While Mumbai voted for Modi. Interior Mahrashtra voted against the NCP Congress as a result of an irrigation scam which has made the drought even worse. Large scale farmer suicides have followed. Prithviraj Chavan has governed well. However the NCP have badly let the governance down. The MNS voter, voted for Modi in the national elections. They are bound to vote for the MNS in the local elections. It reflects what Mahrashtra needs. Mumbai region needs big ticket infra. Inferior needs something different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sachinrox Posted May 17, 2014 Share Posted May 17, 2014 NCP still a strong party in the assembly level. They may have gone down in the LS polls, but will still play a big role in the assembly elections. MNS might well spoil BJP/SS party and get away with close to 35-40 seats at least. I am predicting a BJP-Sena split and a new BJP-NCP-MNS triumvirate ruling Maharashtra Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted May 17, 2014 Author Share Posted May 17, 2014 NCP still a strong party in the assembly level. They may have gone down in the LS polls' date=' but will still play a big role in the assembly elections. MNS might well spoil BJP/SS party and get away with close to 35-40 seats at least. I am predicting a BJP-Sena split and a new BJP-NCP-MNS triumvirate ruling Maharashtra[/quote'] after the BJP win 73 in UP anything is possible. But i personally doubt it. MNS has no presence in marathwada and viderabha rural western maharashtra. So i think they have a realistic chance in about 100 seats in urban areas. 35/45 in those 100. a lot of things need to swing their way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bulbul Posted May 17, 2014 Share Posted May 17, 2014 Time to merge SS& MNS ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted May 17, 2014 Author Share Posted May 17, 2014 Also for good or bad the passing away of anand dighe left a huge hole right when he was needed the most for SS with Bal T not getting any younger - today its a completely different scenario that's gotten played out. Dighe was a sena strongman (literally) in the Thane Kalyan Dombivali etc. I doubt he had the sort impact you are saying he would. Ie he was highly localized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sachin=GOD Posted May 17, 2014 Share Posted May 17, 2014 Time to merge SS& MNS ?? Not happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted May 17, 2014 Author Share Posted May 17, 2014 Sena MNS thing is not happening If i am Udhav i have 18 seats which is a record. I also have the RPI in the corner giving me an edge in many Mumbai seats. I also have a good leader developing in my son Aditya Thakarey who needs 10 more years to bloom. Why will i want to merge now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted May 17, 2014 Author Share Posted May 17, 2014 The party cadres could have gravitated around him and we wouldn't have had the other sena breaking out i.e. Raj T could have found a voice in the SS of back then - has led to splitting of votes doubt whether its helping either of them. the mns in BMC and 2009 assembly elections made an impact in mumbai proper. In areas like Dadar etc. None of the assembly segments in thane etc rebelled. Dighe the man was married to Thane city. I dont think he wanted a more prominent role. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted May 17, 2014 Author Share Posted May 17, 2014 Yes possibly didn't want to expand much - just wonder whether with the impending change in the leadership he would have thought differently. I know ifs and buts - a fellow with some serious following whose passing away didn't help the SS though. lets put it this way. Naik family would not even look at thane lok sabha constituency if Dighe was still alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sachinrox Posted May 17, 2014 Share Posted May 17, 2014 The main reason BJP and Sena won with such majority was because of MNS. You may not agree but apart from not fielding candidates against BJP what he also did was that he did not advertise his party candidate, nor did he asked for votes for his candidates in areas where SS were strong. I feel had MNS contested with full spirit, they would have eaten up a fair share of the Marathi votes from Sena. In my area too, there wasn't a single hoarding of MNS, no visiting house, sending pamphlets/manifestos. All he did was a general rally in main suburbs and praised Modi/took pot shots at SS. If he had contested this election with full severity, BJP and MNS would have ended up with 30-32 seats only. Coming to the assembly elections, he has a strong hold in Mumbai, Thane, Nashik, Pune, Bhwandi and some other outskirts of Mumbai. After Balasaheb, its his speeches which attract people in the grounds. Uddhav is winning just because of Modi wave, do you really think the Sena would have won 18 seats on their own without the Modi wave? No, don't think so. The national elections are completely different from the local assembly elections and here I expect the resurgence of NCP. The big NCP Baabus like Praful Patel, and even the supremo Sharad Pawar has made it clear that he may strike a chord with BJP. MNS supremo Raj TRhackeray has already given signs that he will join hands with BJP provided Sena is booted. Many big leaders will shift from Sena to MNS or NCP (Rahul Narvekar is one who already has done that). So its all looking clear at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted May 17, 2014 Author Share Posted May 17, 2014 navalkar finished third. that should serve as a reminder for those wanting to jump ship to the ncp congress right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted May 17, 2014 Author Share Posted May 17, 2014 also while not pronounced there will be some residual effect from the modi wave. modi i feel will address a few rallies. granted raj t is probably the best orator in maha. but discount young aditya thakarey at your own peril. he has the fire. Sent from my GT-S5830i using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sachinrox Posted May 17, 2014 Share Posted May 17, 2014 Yup Aditya has the fire in him. The Chachas and Bhateejas have been the force in the party. Balasaheb - Ral - Aditya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adi B Posted May 17, 2014 Share Posted May 17, 2014 should be an interesting assembly election this time around.this is the best chance for sena-bjp to comeback to power but mns can easily play the spoilers.they should send amit shah here but i doubt if modi will do too many rallies for state election(matter of maratha pride) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yoda-esque Posted May 17, 2014 Share Posted May 17, 2014 The main reason BJP and Sena won with such majority was because of MNS. You may not agree but apart from not fielding candidates against BJP what he also did was that he did not advertise his party candidate, nor did he asked for votes for his candidates in areas where SS were strong. I feel had MNS contested with full spirit, they would have eaten up a fair share of the Marathi votes from Sena. In my area too, there wasn't a single hoarding of MNS, no visiting house, sending pamphlets/manifestos. All he did was a general rally in main suburbs and praised Modi/took pot shots at SS. If he had contested this election with full severity, BJP and MNS would have ended up with 30-32 seats only. Coming to the assembly elections, he has a strong hold in Mumbai, Thane, Nashik, Pune, Bhwandi and some other outskirts of Mumbai. After Balasaheb, its his speeches which attract people in the grounds. Uddhav is winning just because of Modi wave, do you really think the Sena would have won 18 seats on their own without the Modi wave? No, don't think so. The national elections are completely different from the local assembly elections and here I expect the resurgence of NCP. The big NCP Baabus like Praful Patel, and even the supremo Sharad Pawar has made it clear that he may strike a chord with BJP. MNS supremo Raj TRhackeray has already given signs that he will join hands with BJP provided Sena is booted. Many big leaders will shift from Sena to MNS or NCP (Rahul Narvekar is one who already has done that). So its all looking clear at the moment. Yep,Raj put up candidates only as a face saving exercise to protect Marathi votes from being polarized. I bet he won't do that now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bulbul Posted May 17, 2014 Share Posted May 17, 2014 Yep,Raj put up candidates only as a face saving exercise to protect Marathi votes from being polarized. I bet he won't do that now That's why I said need to bring MNS into NDA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yoda-esque Posted May 17, 2014 Share Posted May 17, 2014 That's why I said need to bring MNS into NDA. How will that help,Marathi votes will split no matter what. SS needs to unite with MNS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bulbul Posted May 17, 2014 Share Posted May 17, 2014 How will that help,Marathi votes will split no matter what. SS needs to unite with MNS why split? ask MNS to contest in seats where it relay strong. Rest can be shared between BJP & SS merging of SS& MNS is good ... Also they should stop violence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted May 17, 2014 Author Share Posted May 17, 2014 why split? ask MNS to contest in seats where it relay strong. Rest can be shared between BJP & SS merging of SS& MNS is good ... Also they should stop violence. he is looking to grow his party and not stagnate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bulbul Posted May 17, 2014 Share Posted May 17, 2014 he is looking to grow his party and not stagnate it. how long he can go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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