adi B Posted July 10, 2013 Posted July 10, 2013 190+ would need a miracle to happen..fact is in state like UP the janta tends to vote bit differently for GE compared to state elections..even the chindi congeress got 21 seats in 09 GE,majority of those seats would transfer to bjp due to anti incumbency factor..bjp will also gain in rajasthan,UK,HP,bihar,punjab,delhi
Sachin=GOD Posted July 10, 2013 Posted July 10, 2013 190+ would need a miracle to happen..fact is in state like UP the janta tends to vote bit differently for GE compared to state elections..even the chindi congeress got 21 seats in 09 GE' date=majority of those seats would transfer to bjp due to anti incumbency factor..bjp will also gain in rajasthan,UK,HP,bihar,punjab,delhi taking into consideration both the Assembly and GE, the last time BJP did really well in UP was in 1999 Lok Sabha when it got 29 seats. Since then its been a decline with the party getting 10 seats in '04 & '09 Lok Sabha and nearly 50 seats in '07 & '12 Assembly elections. Congress getting 21 in UP in '09 was a one off thing because Mulayam joined hands with Kalyan SIngh so a lot of Muslim votes transferred from SP to Cong. This time SP is in power in UP and has performed in a pathetic manner while Cong has done bad at the Centre so I expect BSP to be the biggest gainer. BJP's seats will increase but from 10 they can't expect a very big gain. In Bihar BJP got 12 last time when it was in a coalition with JDU (which was a very big factor in BJP's favour) and Lalu was at his lowest point. Now BJP has split, Lalu is definitely on the rise so in such a scenario I don't see BJP gaining much. In fact I wouldn't be at all surprised if they end up losing a few seats. UK,HP,Punjab & Delhi together account for 29 seats of which NDA currently has 9 or 10 so here they can increase by 7 or 8 seats at best. In Rajasthan there's a good chance to add a lot of seats.
bulbul Posted July 10, 2013 Posted July 10, 2013 All these caluculation will apply if Advani is face of BJP , as its Modi is the tallest leader now everything is unpredictable :winky:
The Outsider Posted July 10, 2013 Posted July 10, 2013 All these caluculation will apply if Advani is face of BJP ' date=' as its Modi is the tallest leader now everything is unpredictable :winky:[/quote'] What are your success and failure benchmarks for Modi?
bulbul Posted July 10, 2013 Posted July 10, 2013 What are your success and failure benchmarks for Modi? As this is his first election as a leader in national level & all the hatred towards him by 'certain' people , anything above 155+ i will be happy. Less than that time to do some introspection and look for next election.
The Outsider Posted July 10, 2013 Posted July 10, 2013 As this is his first election as a leader in national level & all the hatred towards him by 'certain' people , anything above 155+ i will be happy. Less than that time to do some introspection and look for next election. That's a pretty low benchmark for the governance messiah and cadre motivator, I must say. BJP already has 120 seats and add a further 20 by JD-U which were lost directly by Modi a gain of 15 seats is seen as being enough by you for Modi to be declared a success. Really disappointed by the low expectations you have of him.
Sachin=GOD Posted July 10, 2013 Posted July 10, 2013 As this is his first election as a leader in national level & all the hatred towards him by 'certain' people , anything above 155+ i will be happy. Less than that time to do some introspection and look for next election. if he gets less than 150 you can be sure it will be his last election as well. you're saying 155 - that means almost no chances of forming the Govt and even if there are any chances, then certainly not with Modi as the PM - so much for the high expectations!!!!
CSK Fan Posted July 10, 2013 Posted July 10, 2013 Got this as a forward. Modi posters appearing in TN with muslim faces. Can someone translate what this says? The poster says, "These guys will definitely not side with Modi" :giggle: just j/k, in case someone takes that seriously
bulbul Posted July 10, 2013 Posted July 10, 2013 That's a pretty low benchmark for the governance messiah and cadre motivator' date=' I must say. BJP already has 120 seats and add a further 20 by JD-U which were lost directly by Modi a gain of 15 seats is seen as being enough by you for Modi to be declared a success. Really disappointed by the low expectations you have of him.[/quote'] Its the worst case scenario for first time National leader , even ABV struggled initially. If Advani is there tally will be in double digits so considering that scenario 155+ will be a good start. It will be easily cross 200+ if certain votebanks can broken dow.
The Outsider Posted July 10, 2013 Posted July 10, 2013 Its the worst case scenario for first time National leader , even ABV struggled initially. Vajpayee took BJP from 120 to 160 from '91 to '96, whereas you are considering a gain of 15 seats a success for Modi. Really disappointed that this is the level of confidence in someone you praise non stop.
bulbul Posted July 10, 2013 Posted July 10, 2013 Vajpayee took BJP from 120 to 160 from '91 to '96' date=' whereas you are considering a gain of 15 seats a success for Modi. Really disappointed that this is the level of confidence in someone you praise non stop.[/quote'] What is BJP's current tally?
CSK Fan Posted July 10, 2013 Posted July 10, 2013 What is BJP's current tally? Current tally would have been much more than last time because of congress messing up if NDA had remained intact. Congress had handed it over in a platter. My vote would have gone their way too And don't forget, even though it looks like Modi dissenters within BJP and NDA have given up for now, if BJP doesn't get outright win, they will want Modi's head for sure
Sachin=GOD Posted July 10, 2013 Posted July 10, 2013 Its the worst case scenario for first time National leader , even ABV struggled initially. If Advani is there tally will be in double digits so considering that scenario 155+ will be a good start. It will be easily cross 200+ if certain votebanks can broken dow. so whats the best case scenario and how will it be achieved - give me some state wise numbers with reasons. Advani never really was in contention for the post of BJP's leader for this election - he's in contention for the PM's post. thats exactly what will not happen with such a divisive figure as leader. In fact it will only consolidate those vote banks against BJP.
bulbul Posted July 10, 2013 Posted July 10, 2013 116 So i am giving 39+ seats for a leader who leads his party first time in General election.
The Outsider Posted July 10, 2013 Posted July 10, 2013 So i am giving 39+ seats for a leader who leads his party first time in General election. He has already lost 20 for the NDA, so the starting point is 136 and not 116.
bulbul Posted July 10, 2013 Posted July 10, 2013 Current tally would have been much more than last time because of congress messing up if NDA had remained intact. Congress had handed it over in a platter. My vote would have gone their way too And don't forget, even though it looks like Modi dissenters within BJP and NDA have given up for now, if BJP doesn't get outright win, they will want Modi's head for sure As of now Modi is BJP leader,what happens later we can see when it happened. Right now i am least bothered with NDA.
Sachin=GOD Posted July 10, 2013 Posted July 10, 2013 So i am giving 39+ seats for a leader who leads his party first time in General election. UPA has done such a bad job in this term that BJP would anyways gain quite a few seats irrespective of the leader. If 155 is the number you're giving then there's really no point at all of a new leader because he's not adding a whole lot more. As for this "first time leader" thing - this is certainly the first time hearing of it. Till now it used to be "a great administrator with 12 years of experience".
bulbul Posted July 10, 2013 Posted July 10, 2013 so whats the best case scenario and how will it be achieved - give me some state wise numbers with reasons. Advani never really was in contention for the post of BJP's leader for this election - he's in contention for the PM's post. thats exactly what will not happen with such a divisive figure as leader. In fact it will only consolidate those vote banks against BJP. We cant predict state wise numbers on current BJP capability,honestly speaking BJP wont win even 100 seats if you caluculate statewise, thats where Modi magic required.
bulbul Posted July 10, 2013 Posted July 10, 2013 He has already lost 20 for the NDA' date=' so the starting point is 136 and not 116.[/quote'] If you try little bit harder you can move the starting point to 155. For exapmle you can add all the seats BJP will lose becausw seculars voting against BJP.
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