US worried over loose nukes in Pakistan

[theguyinallblue]

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/US_worried_over_loose_nukes_in_Pakistan/articleshow/2274721.cms WASHINGTON: The United States is having anxiety attacks over the prospect of loose nukes in strife-torn Pakistan, even as India seems unperturbed by it. An ongoing security review of the evolving situation in Pakistan by the US reveals that Washington has full knowledge about the location of Pakistan's nuclear weapons, but it is not certain who might start controlling them if there is a shift in power. In an intriguing story, CNN reported on Friday that beleaguered military ruler Pervez Musharraf "controls the loyalty of the commanders and senior officials in charge of the nuclear program, but those loyalties could shift at any point." Musharraf's control over the military remains limited to certain top commanders and units, raising worries about whether he can maintain control over the long term, CNN said, citing intelligence analysis that is part of a broader security review of Pakistan, undertaken amid the turbulent events in the maverick nuclear armed country. The deep US concern is in sharp contrast to the almost karmic indifference to the prospect of loose Pak nukes in India, where there has been little or no debate about the matter. India may have more to worry about than US in the event of Pakistan's nuclear weapons falling into wrong hands. Washington and New York are beyond the direct range of Pakistani nukes; almost every Indian city is within their reach. Yet, it is US analysts who are sweating bricks. Some experts have already begun analyzing the fall-out of a Pakistani regime collapse in terms of not just 'ready-to-use' nukes, but from the dispersal of key staff, critical technologies, technical data, components, etc. to other maverick groups or nations. Washington has long sought to get a fix on Pakistan's crown jewels. Lt.Gen Khalid Kidwai, head of the Pakistan's Strategic Plans Division who is in charge of the operational security of the country's nukes, has been a frequent visitor to the US, mostly in an effort to assure Washington of the military's total custodial control of the weapons. Such guarantees aside, the latest analysis suggests the US is not entirely certain which way the nuclear pins would fall in the event of a regime collapse. The calculated leak about Washington knowing the location of Pakistani nukes, a claim made for the first time, is double-edged. While it provides some assurance to the world (including India) that the US has a fix on the weapons, it also enables a tetchy Pakistan to take remedial action. Some previous reports have gone as far as to suggest the US has precise plans, involving its special forces and joint plants with Israeli units, to exfiltrate or neutralize Pakistan's nuclear weapons in the event of a meltdown or a power vacuum. Islamabad itself went hysterical over possible India-Israel joint action to neutralize its nuclear weapons in the immediate aftermath of India's May 1998 nuclear tests, when Pakistan was still preparing for its tests. But more sober accounts indicate Washington is on the horns of a dilemma about the nuclear armoury of its unstable client state. The prospect of Islamabad losing control of some of its weapons to terrorists was foreseen in the 2006 Quadrennial Defense Review report, which did not directly mention Pakistan, but stated that at its core, the problem is one of "internal instability." Experts said at that time while the QDR language seemed vague and euphemistic, it is clear Pentagon planners have a very specific place in mind: Pakistan. Still, argued analyst Thomas Donnelly in a 2006 National Security Outlook paper, "It would be hard to know in advance whether American intervention in a Pakistani crisis - whether related to nuclear weapons, materials, or facilities -would make things better or make them worse." One thing seems clear though: Washington's worst nightmare is right around the corner - India's corner. Before India...if something happens in pakistan..and regime changes ...and extremists come in power...there would definitely be an israeli attack on Pakistan from the Arabian Sea side....with the help of USA..and china will keep counting its billions of $$...and would watch the destruction from a distance..:hysterical:

[gator]

i am sure,. india has a contingency plan well in place incase of a power collapse in paakiland.... it wouldnt take much to infiltrate and take out the control structure amid the confusion of a collapse.... it is more difficult when musharraf is still in power.... it is much easier amid chaos.... question is, will they be able to beat the terrorists to it...

[Gaurav]

i am sure' date='. india has a contingency plan well in place incase of a power collapse in paakiland....[/quote'] I hope you are not talking about our politicians head in the sand/@ss plan :D

[gator]

I hope you are not talking about our politicians head in the sand/@ss plan :D

lol Gai... these plans are usually made by the RAW.... the final green light has to come from an italian woman though....:two_thumbs_up:

[Ram]

Yea.. this concern has there been for long. About rogue elements in the pakistani army which might take control of the nuclear arsenal. I hope the pakistani establishment has enough safety mechanisms to prevent that from happening easily.

[Rajiv]

Its too much panic, you think if there is a new govt. Pak people just gonna sit shut and let extremist fire up nukes around the world. Whoz gonna do it for them anyways?

[Guest dada_rocks]

I have full faiht on Israel's ability and willingness, not so much on USA and well zero faith on our indian honchos willingness if not ability............

[gs]

Nothing will be done by India. Israel will take care of it with some covert support from USA and probably some logistical support from India.

[bigdhoni7]

doesnt india have a defense system like the Patriot anti missile defence system the US has?

[gs]

doesnt india have a defense system like the Patriot anti missile defence system the US has?

It's called Akash or Trishul - something along those lines. Has been in DRDO research pipeline for over 2 decades but hasnt seen daylight yet, and will probably be shelved - the best bet is to induct the US/Israeli built Arrow or Patriot systems.

[Guest dada_rocks]

Its too much panic' date=' you think if there is a new govt. Pak people just gonna sit shut and let extremist fire up nukes around the world. Whoz gonna do it for them anyways?[/quote'] i support ur view point.. no matter who comes in power in pakistan as far as military decisions are cocnerned remain in safe hands of army.. and their army thankfully knows what starting the nuke-war means.. four a$$-whipping oandone crippling division of nation does make one wise..... they know if they cud not win 65 war they will never win any war against india.. ytes india was the weakest then.. not fully in russian camp hence relatively starved of weaponry and pakistan by then was usa's bit$h and had all sort of latest weaponry and stil they lost.. yes yes they don't accept but the very fact tthat he after-war negotiation happened in tashkand instead of washington says who won who lost..