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****Maharashtra Assembly Elections 2014 Thread***


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BJP's CM candidate probably was Gopinath Ji' date=' but after his death, I don't think BJP has another candidate. Shiv Sena might get the upper hand now by projecting Uddhav as the CM, but that may not be accepted by many (including several BJP leaders).[/quote'] yup The only two leaders of stature in BJP maharashtra , munde and gadkari.
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The circumstances in which he dies looks very suspicious to me,a cabinet rank minister without any security,no body is injured except him,he was to be projected as cm candidate,the recent controversies around maha assembly elections,I don't know but I have a feeling that there is more to this than we actually see. sent from dil se

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****Maharashtra Assembly Elections 2014 Thread***

As far as impact on elections go' date=' there will be a sympathy wave. Especially in Marathwada[/quote'] Agree. There will be sympathy wave for the Yuti (Alliance)....
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I think the best way for the bjp to proceed is to not project a CM leader now. the sympathy has been created + Modi factor should see them through. Otherwise you have these tier 2 leaders like Phadnvis Tawde and Khadse ready to scrap for the spoils. Crucially RPI and SSS need to be comferated as Munde was the point man for their induction into mahayuti Modi must ensure that Gadkari does not have free reign to push his people making the Munde faction anxious. I would say bring in somebody like Rudy or Amit shah to organise people and deal with allies. Every BJP poster must have Gopinath Munde on them. Just like they would had he been alive.

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What will happen is that the sena and bjp will get into a seat sharing agreement and sena will project Udhav , bjp will have posters with munde so the person with the biggest number of seats wins. Crucially it all depends on the seat split. In that regard the BJP have lost some ground as they dont have anybody of stature to stand upto Uddhav. This is why you need an amit shah. But even then its a case of asymmetric info as it wil surely take him some time to know the intricacies of a large state like maha

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and i stress again the BJP need to maintain the status quo for now. After the elections Modi and high command can decide. You promote somebody now there will be civil war within the BJP. Long term its better that the BJP maintain its shape and organisation in the state than descended into civil war.Even if that means sitting in as the junior partner to the sena in the state. you promote mumbai based Twade then Khadse and Phadnis will rebel. Repeat the same for the others. Long term the BJP will have to make a call. But now is not the time.

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What will happen is that the sena and bjp will get into a seat sharing agreement and sena will project Udhav , bjp will have posters with munde so the person with the biggest number of seats wins. Crucially it all depends on the seat split. In that regard the BJP have lost some ground as they dont have anybody of stature to stand upto Uddhav. This is why you need an amit shah. But even then its a case of asymmetric info as it wil surely take him some time to know the intricacies of a large state like maha
As you said, BJP now does not have anyone of the stature of Uddhav or Munde so even if they do win more seats I don't see SS agreeing to someone junior as CM while Uddhav is around.
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Modi's not stupid to make Munde a cabinet minister and then ask him to become CM on Maharashtra.... BJPZ never wanted to go for Maha CM post... I think they'll like to groom Devendra Fadnavis and might make him DyCM...

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Modi's not stupid to make Munde a cabinet minister and then ask him to become CM on Maharashtra.... BJPZ never wanted to go for Maha CM post... I think they'll like to groom Devendra Fadnavis and might make him DyCM...
i doubt it BJP are tapping into the non maratha OBC bank. Munde fit every bill. An RSS man through and through along with a a good organisator who rose from the depths to the top. Fadnavis remains a Brahmin. Has his uses but not marketable in Marathwada. Crucially they need to fill a hole in Marathwada.
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I am reading reports that Raosaheb Danve who was a Munde confidante will be given the responsibility of Marathwada. He is a 3 time MP from Marathwada seat of Jalna and currently a minister at the center. Also Gopinath Munde's daughter will contest her fathers lok sabha seat of Beed. She is currently an MLA. People claiming the Congress-NCP alliance at this moment claim they wont enter that contest as a mark of respect to Mr Munde

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Narayan Rane signals open revolt

Frustrated with the Congress’s rout in the Lok Sabha polls and the unlikelihood of a leadership change in the State, Industries Minister Narayan Rane seems to be indicating an open rebellion. “I will announce my decision in the next two or three days. It is no secret that I am unhappy. I have written to the party leadership after the poll results giving my analysis on the reasons,” Mr. Rane told The Hindu. He held a meeting with party legislators loyal to him on Tuesday. Mr. Rane resigned from the Cabinet immediately after the results, in an attempt to pressure Chief Minister Prithviraj Chavan to quit. His son, sitting MP Nilesh Rane from Ratnagiri-Sindhudurgh lost the polls, which he saw as a personal setback. Mr. Rane succeeded Manohar Joshi as Chief Minister of Maharashtra in 1999 when he was in the Shiv Sena.
http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/other-states/narayan-rane-signals-open-revolt/article6079469.ece
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BJP sends feelers to Narayan Rane to fill Maharashtra vacuum

New Delhi: With Gopinath Munde’s untimely demise creating a vacuum in the Maharashtra unit of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the party is looking to wean former chief minister Narayan Rane away from the Congress. The BJP, whose stakes are high in the forthcoming assembly elections in Maharashtra, is keen on getting a Maratha leader as it currently has only Brahmin leaders at the top. Munde, a leader belonging to other backward class, had helped the BJP shed the image of a Brahmin-Baniya political party and gain wider acceptance. Rane, a former Shiv Sena member who joined the Congress in 2005, had been in touch with the state party leadership to explore the possibilities of shifting alliance to the BJP, a leader of the party said, requesting anonymity. Munde’s death has made the BJP look for a non-Brahmin mass leader. “It is not as if Narayan Rane is suddenly talking to BJP after the death of Gopinath Munde. Rane has been in touch with some of the central BJP leaders,” the BJP leader said. However, he was evasive in giving a firm response on whether Rane will be taken into the party. “It is difficult to say whether Narayan Rane will join BJP because the party has a different work culture and Rane may not fit. Rane used to be with Shiv Sena, but he was unhappy and even now when he is in Congress for nearly a decade and minister in government, he is upset because he wants to be the chief minister,” he said. BJP leaders contacted Rane on Tuesday, another person familiar with the development said, also requesting to remain unnamed. Rane was not available for comments.
http://www.livemint.com/Politics/tnJia2KisSVaIVMRNJdhNN/BJP-sends-feelers-to-Narayan-Rane-to-fill-Maharashtra-vacuum.html this is going to end in tears.....Rane wants to be CM. Thats never going to happen for the BJP. At max it will be industries or revenue minister. Better to promote Punkaja the daughter of Munde as the face of BJP maharashtra. She will take time but its time to build with her
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Munde's daughter, Gadkari, Shah to help BJP sail through in Maharashtra

Pankaja Munde -- who lit the funeral pyre of her father Gopinath Munde on Wednesday at his ancestral village of Parli in Maharasthra along with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and party general secretary Amit Shah -- will lead the the Bharatiya Janata Party’s campaign for the assembly elections scheduled for later this year. The BJP would like to see Pankaja, a 34-year-old member of legislative assembly from Parli, to emerge as the heir to her father’s political legacy. The tragic demise of her father could evoke enough sympathy among the electorate for Pankaja and is likely to help the BJP build on its excellent performance in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections in the state. The party’s assessment is that in the assembly elections, Pankaja, a backward caste leader, with help from extensive campaigning by Modi, who also identifies himself as an OBC, would negate the perception that the BJP without Munde is an upper caste party. With Munde gone, Nitin Gadkari is likely to lead the seat adjustment talks with the BJP ally, the Shiv Sena. Gadkari’s presence is sure to make Sena suspicious, given that the BJP leader had upset Sena leader Uddhav Thackeray by talking to the latter’s estranged cousin, Raj Thackeray of the Maharashtra Navanirman Sena, in the run-up to the Lok Sabha elections. Gadkari and Raj had ostensibly spoken about a possible electoral tie-up. The presence of Amit Shah in Maharasthra is another positive for the BJP. Shah has been made in-charge of party’s election campaign for the assembly elections. He is likely to replicate some of the strategies he employed in Uttar Pradesh to get Dalit and other backward classes votes for the BJP. This would include being more accommodating towards the Republican Party of India (Athavale), a party with a substantial support base among Dalits, and Raju Shetty’s Swabhimani Paksha, with its supporters among the peasantry. The two parties were a part of the Mahayuti alliance that fought the Lok Sabha elections. The Sena, however, might not find it as easy to sacrifice seats for either of these two parties. The strains between the Sena and the BJP were evident on Monday, just 24 hours before Munde died. Sena spokesman Sanjay Raut had projected party chief Uddhav as the next chief minister. But BJP state unit President Devendra Fadnavis said Munde had been loaned to Delhi for three months and would return to be chief minister. The understanding in the party is Munde’s passing away was unlikely to change BJP’s plans to be more assertive with the Sena over seat adjustment. The BJP is likely to insist that it contest a majority of seats, given its increased influence in rural areas across most of Maharashtra. Until now, the BJP-Shiv Sena arrangement was such that the national party fought a majority of Maharashtra’s 48 Lok Sabha seats, while the Sena fought most of the assembly seats. The BJP believes while its support base has been expanding, the Sena’s has reached a plateau. Munde, who was the frontrunner for BJP’s chief ministerial candidate, had already discussed the assembly poll strategy last week. He had clearly indicated that BJP’s alliance with Shiv Sena, Republican Party of India, Swabhimani Shetkari Sanghatana and Rashtriya Samaj Party will further be strengthened without compromising on party’s interests. Further, Munde had also indicated that he would bargain with the Sena to change the 172:117 seat-sharing formula. A BJP general secretary, who did not want to be identified, told Business Standard: “A large section of the party wants that party should go alone, while a few are of the view that it should press for a 155:133 or 165:123 formula.” In the 2009 elections, the BJP received 18.17 per cent of the votes and won nine seats. The Sena got 17 per cent votes and was victorious on 11 seats. In 2014, the BJP increased its vote share to 27.3 per cent and won all 23 seats it had contested. The Sena also won all 18 seats it contested but its vote share increased by a bit over three per cent to 20.6 per cent. The BJP is convinced that this increase was because of the ‘Modi wave’. Munde, who hailed from the backward Vanjara community, played a key role in breaking the stranglehold of the Congress and Nationalist Congress Party in the Marathwada region. Modi, in his tweet after Munde’s death, said: “Hailing from backward section of society, he rose to great heights and tirelessly served people.” Maharashtra assembly’s term ends on December 7.
http://www.rediff.com/news/column/mundes-daughter-gadkari-shah-to-help-bjp-sail-through-in-maharashtra/20140605.htm?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
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