Oil prices at record high, at $96 a barrel

[Ram]

How more ridiculous can this get ? $96 a Barrel when ideally it should be around the $30-$35 mark. The OPEC is blaming limited supplies and exponential demand on why they are not able to cope up, but i think it is nothing but a big lie. Its not like they never predicted that demand from developing countries would increase but still they failed invest in oil infrastructure and let the demand supply gap shrink. Add to this constant threat of terrorism in the oil-producing middle-east, we have the perfect combination of economic factors and political instability. All this is terribly hurting countries India, whose trade gap which is now ballooning due to the oil bill. Some months ago, P.Chidambaram was even complaining that the high oil price was shaving close to 1% of India's GDP growth rate and that is totally unacceptable. The only guys who are benefiting from the current prices are the oil companies which are making bumper profits. ------- On a related note, British Petroleum Chief Executive Lord John Browne has resigned over a gay sex-scandal. This guy had a VERY high-profile in Britain. Sad it had to end this way.

[Bumper]

Threat of inflation due to Oil prices is all hype. Oil prices have consistently risen from the 1940s. Yet the US economy, the stock market, real estate have all flourished in this time. You cant live in an economy thats ten times larger than the 60s & expect to pay what you paid in the 60s for gas. Aint happening! Personally, I'd love to see Oil sky rocket, so i can make more money off my oil funds:haha:

[Ram]

Threat of inflation due to Oil prices is all hype. Oil prices have consistently risen from the 1940s. Yet the US economy, the stock market, real estate have all flourished in this time. You cant live in an economy thats seven times larger than the 60s & expect to pay what you paid in the 60s for gas. Aint happening!

Your view of the situation seems to start and end with US, which is unfortunate. And US should NOT complain about high-prices anyway, being one of the biggest subsidizers of oil price to its people. Simply put, the era of $2/Gallon is over in the states. Higher oil prices has boosted inflation in India, with commodity prices increasing. A litre of petrol is costing 3 times what it used to cost a few years ago. Have the incomes gone up proportionately ? Its hurting the developing companies BADLY. Hopefully these artificially high prices drive people towards other sources to power their motoring in the future. Its all a huge irony because in a few decades, there will be billion of barrels of oil lying in the fields with no bothering about them. Soon, we will go into a oil-free world, its just a matter of time, not IF. High oil prices are creating pockets of wealth, while depriving the millions others some desperately needed money.

[fineleg]

MM, Solution is alternate sources of energy. But, I think progress on that has been rather slow despite promises.

[Ram]

MM, Solution is alternate sources of energy. But, I think progress on that has been rather slow despite promises.

The immediate and easy solution is to rein in the prices to $40/barrel, but nobody will do it.

[Bongosamaj]

Its not like they never predicted that demand from developing countries would increase but still they failed invest in oil infrastructure and let the demand supply gap shrink.

You really don't know how oil fields work, do you ? You cannot just plop down extra wells on the same field to meet demands. Rising oil price is an inevitability due to rising demand and hardly any new significant oil explorations done in the last 10-15 yrs.

[Bongosamaj]

The immediate and easy solution is to rein in the prices to $40/barrel, but nobody will do it.

how exactly are you going to accomplish this ? Threaten the OPEC nations with invasions ?

[Ram]

You really don't know how oil fields work, do you ? You cannot just plop down extra wells on the same field to meet demands. Rising oil price is an inevitability due to rising demand and hardly any new significant oil explorations done in the last 10-15 yrs.

And that is precisely what i have said too. High prices are a combination of skyrocketing demand, lack of investment in new fields and political instability. If you even have a needle-head amount of knowledge of what i am talking about, you will understand that an oil price of $96 is simply unacceptable and CANNOT be explained by logical reasons of supply and demand. The fact of the matter is, it is a VERIFIED CLAIM that oil companies sat idle on their huge coffers, without investing in new infrastructure.

how exactly are you going to accomplish this ? Threaten the OPEC nations with invasions ?

Huh ? Why do you have to mix politics in it ? This is a purely an economical decision that even the OPEC has mulled taking before. And it is a win-win situation for both sides because the ordinary consumer gets cheaper oil and the world's progress towards oil-free motoring will slow down. Currently , the BIGGEST motivation to find alternate sources of energy is NOT climate change, but high oil prices. The oil producing nations are threatening their long-term sustainability if the prices remain at these levels. As i said before, we are well and truly moving towards an oil-free world.

[Bongosamaj]

lack of investment in new fields and political instability

Dude...fields are FINITE! Constant/fixed supply/limited room for growth + ever-rising demand = ? Fairly straightforward, isn't it ?

If you even have a needle-head amount of knowledge of what i am talking about, you will understand that an oil price of $96 is simply unacceptable and CANNOT be explained by logical reasons of supply and demand.

Umm..yes it can. If you have any idea as to how many more cars there are on road today than just 15 years ago- not just in India, but also in the west, you'd realize. I dunno how long you've been in America, I've been in North America (and i have been down to the states several times) for over eight years and already, the growth-factor is amazing to watch. I am sure people like Aditi or Varun or Swetabh, who've been out here in the west for a long time too can corroborrate this ( i will be genuinely surprised if this observation of mine turns out false). And i will tell you this much about my personal life- my father lived in the middle east for a long time working in an oil corp. & I am an engineer- you do the math there as to how much i follow the matter/understand the engineering side of it (though i admit, my understanding is limited to the logistics side of it- i am not a chemical engineer, i cannot get too detailed into actual machineries involved or chemical processes involved). Fact of the matter is, there simply isn't enough oil to meet demand. Or atleast, its getting that way- right now, its pushing the prices upwards and that is already making oil unaffordable for many. Yes, i know it sucks, but world simply has to understand the fact that there hasn't been any big oil fields found (though, huge gas fields have been found) where enough production capacity exists to meet a 2-3 fold global oil consumption demand of the last 15-20 years ( once you factor in the zillion times more car in road in the third world nations today). And no, you simply cannot say ' well with proper infrastructure, we can pump out more oil' - that is very naive for an engineering student. There are a whole host of scientific processes & technological barriers involved- all of which, in field of APPLIED SCIENCE boils down to cost. The depth of the field, the slope of it, the nature of the oil-bearing rock band, etc. all play a factor in determining the optimum flow-rate out of the field- beyond which you have to spend expoentially more money for faster flow-rates, etc. Plus, there is the whole business aspect to this that must be considered. Most oil plants cost an arm & a leg to put up- i am talking several hundred million dollars- there are heat-transfer units that alone costs 5-10 million each and a plant uses several of them. If you are going to ask someone to sink hundreds of millions to produce a bit more oil ( one plant has insignificant impact in global oil production capacity), then the cost of it has to be factored in- investors want their money back ASAP and move into the profit zone, etc etc. With a finite resource that also carries the incentive to 'milk the cash cow a bit longer' phenomenon (it exists, i admit, but is very much a minor player here to the overall simple supply-demand of it), it ultimately, is the losing battle for an economist. Yes, i know its an intolerable situation, but if you think the solution lies with simple politics or simply plopping down more oil rigs, you are sadly mistaken. And yes, this is a capitalist world- you should know very well by now that i am not a big fan of capitalism either- but it is how the world works. Not enough supply means the bigger bidder gets it- right now, China and India are desperate for oil and all this is having an impact on the oil prices. Rest assured, your 90-100 dollar/barrel cost is not going to be avoidable or is in any significant way another phenomenon to the supply-demand dictum. Sure, if $hit was run in a perfect world , oil prices would now probably be 75-80 dollars a barrel and it'd hit 90-100 in another 5 years' time. Whopee facking ding !

And it is a win-win situation for both sides because the ordinary consumer gets cheaper oil and the world's progress towards oil-free motoring will slow down.

It will if the oil prices crashed immediately. But a couple more years of this and you can be assured that people will really wake up to the idea of alternative fuel and consider it worth persuing at higher prices for a while, just to get out of the decaying orbit of oil that will come crashing down very soon anyways.

Currently , the BIGGEST motivation to find alternate sources of energy is NOT climate change, but high oil prices.

Yes. I know. Which is why i am not too peeved off at the high oil prices. It is playing its part right now in accordance to the greater good.

As i said before, we are well and truly moving towards an oil-free world.

We are. But the transition to it won't be a very smooth one either. India has a huge potential because of the available solar power- Rajasthan & Gujrat can quite literally,allied with liberal use of nuclear technology, become the energy feeders of India. Strangely enough, India is in a very good boat right now to come out winner in this whole process- with its rising economy & huge population-base plus low value Rupee, India can make solar energy a huge part of our energy equation. Yes, we have to make sacrifices for it, but IMO, devoting 1-2% of our economic output towards development of solar, nuclear & wind power can massively reduce our oil dependency in another 20 years or so time, atleast, to a point where it is less than a third of our consumption, if that.

[Ram]

Dude...fields are FINITE! Constant/fixed supply/limited room for growth + ever-rising demand = ? Fairly straightforward, isn't it ?

New oil fields are discovered almost EVERY month. The UK company, Cairn Energy discovered significant sources of oil in Rajasthan, while Reliance Petroleum has snagged exploration right for many untouched on and off-shore oil fields in the Kavery Basin and the Kutch Area. Trust me , there is a lot of undiscovered oil in this world. As you might already know, striking oil is a bit of a lottery. There is no guaranteed success.

Umm..yes it can. If you have any idea as to how many more cars there are on road today than just 15 years ago- not just in India, but also in the west, you'd realize. I dunno how long you've been in America, I've been in North America (and i have been down to the states several times) for over eight years and already, the growth-factor is amazing to watch. I am sure people like Aditi or Varun or Swetabh, who've been out here in the west for a long time too can corroborrate this ( i will be genuinely surprised if this observation of mine turns out false).

Dude, America's per capita oil consumption has flattened long time ago. So, dont go searching for reasons like " See there are lots of cars in America" and come up with even more childish stuff like " Go ask Aditi , Shwetabh if you dont believe me". Its not america's consumption that is hurting now, but the new developing countries.

And i will tell you this much about my personal life- my father lived in the middle east for a long time working in an oil corp. & I am an engineer- you do the math there as to how much i follow the matter/understand the engineering side of it (though i admit, my understanding is limited to the logistics side of it- i am not a chemical engineer, i cannot get too detailed into actual machineries involved or chemical processes involved).

I acknowledge and respect your knowledge and expertise in this field. But dont be lulled into thinking that others dont much about it.

Fact of the matter is, there simply isn't enough oil to meet demand. Or atleast, its getting that way- right now, its pushing the prices upwards and that is already making oil unaffordable for many. Yes, i know it sucks, but world simply has to understand the fact that there hasn't been any big oil fields found (though, huge gas fields have been found)

This is precisely where i think you need to acquaint yourselves with the latest news, rather than just talking of the knowledge you already have. In india itself , massive previously unknown fields have been discovered in the Kavery, Bay of Bengal and Kutch Basin. Even Rajasthan has had many oil discoveries.

And no, you simply cannot say ' well with proper infrastructure, we can pump out more oil' - that is very naive for an engineering student. There are a whole host of scientific processes & technological barriers involved- all of which, in field of APPLIED SCIENCE boils down to cost. The depth of the field, the slope of it, the nature of the oil-bearing rock band, etc. all play a factor in determining the optimum flow-rate out of the field- beyond which you have to spend expoentially more money for faster flow-rates, etc.

I understand the logistical challenges involved , but my grouse is at the Oil companies didnt show enough intent in exploration.

Plus, there is the whole business aspect to this that must be considered. Most oil plants cost an arm & a leg to put up- i am talking several hundred million dollars- there are heat-transfer units that alone costs 5-10 million each and a plant uses several of them. If you are going to ask someone to sink hundreds of millions to produce a bit more oil ( one plant has insignificant impact in global oil production capacity), then the cost of it has to be factored in- investors want their money back ASAP and move into the profit zone, etc etc.

You gotto be kidding if you are going to point to financials as a reason for not investing in infrastructure, you just need to have a look at the list of the top 25 most profitable companies in 2006 and you will see the names of BP, Royal Dutch Shell, Chevron Texaco, Exxon figure prominently in that list. Oil companies have registering BILLION dollar profits for the last many years now.

Yes, i know its an intolerable situation, but if you think the solution lies with simple politics or simply plopping down more oil rigs, you are sadly mistaken. And yes, this is a capitalist world- you should know very well by now that i am not a big fan of capitalism either- but it is how the world works. Not enough supply means the bigger bidder gets it- right now, China and India are desperate for oil and all this is having an impact on the oil prices. Rest assured, your 90-100 dollar/barrel cost is not going to be avoidable or is in any significant way another phenomenon to the supply-demand dictum. Sure, if was run in a perfect world , oil prices would now probably be 75-80 dollars a barrel and it'd hit 90-100 in another 5 years' time. Whopee facking ding !

I am telling you dude, its just not the supply-demand situation alone. There's lot of sh!t happening in the middle east. Everytime there is a suicide bombing, a blown embassy, a war , the price shoots by $5.

It will if the oil prices crashed immediately. But a couple more years of this and you can be assured that people will really wake up to the idea of alternative fuel and consider it worth persuing at higher prices for a while, just to get out of the decaying orbit of oil that will come crashing down very soon anyways.

No way ! Nobody will even consider the thought of more expensive alternate sources had the price of oil had not been so high. Proof - All this talk of renewables has started only recently, when the oil price has shot up.

Yes. I know. Which is why i am not too peeved off at the high oil prices. It is playing its part right now in accordance to the greater good.

Agree

We are. But the transition to it won't be a very smooth one either. India has a huge potential because of the available solar power- Rajasthan & Gujrat can quite literally,allied with liberal use of nuclear technology, become the energy feeders of India. Strangely enough, India is in a very good boat right now to come out winner in this whole process- with its rising economy & huge population-base plus low value Rupee, India can make solar energy a huge part of our energy equation. Yes, we have to make sacrifices for it, but IMO, devoting 1-2% of our economic output towards development of solar, nuclear & wind power can massively reduce our oil dependency in another 20 years or so time, atleast, to a point where it is less than a third of our consumption, if that.

India ? Again, a bit of news will help. China is HEAD AND SHOULDERS above the world ( yes, even the west) in contemplating and implementation of green technologies.

[Bongosamaj]

New oil fields are discovered almost EVERY month. The UK company, Cairn Energy discovered significant sources of oil in Rajasthan, while Reliance Petroleum has snagged exploration right for many untouched on and off-shore oil fields in the Kavery Basin and the Kutch Area.

Err yes. Peanuts..utter peanuts compared to what is there and what is necessary to make a difference. The total capacity output & reserve of all oil fields explored in the last 15 years do not collectively add up to the Dahran field of Saudi alone.

Dude, America's per capita oil consumption has flattened long time ago. So, dont go searching for reasons like " See there are lots of cars in America" and come up with even more childish stuff like " Go ask Aditi , Shwetabh if you dont believe me". Its not america's consumption that is hurting now, but the new developing countries.

I seriously doubt ANY study that says that. If 2-3x cars on the streets today don't matter, then that is categoric propaganda, not worth a pinch of salt.

But dont be lulled into thinking that others dont much about it.

Never said others wernt and i am the only authority on this planet on this topic. However, those who know about it in the same way i do/more than me will NOT take your position on oil. And i can refer you to atleast 50 engineers with 10+ years of minimum experience in this field to state how wrong you are.

In india itself , massive previously unknown fields have been discovered in the Kavery, Bay of Bengal and Kutch Basin. Even Rajasthan has had many oil discoveries.

Talk numbers to me. This is a field i know a fair bit about as i said. Tell me what is the CONFIRMED reserve amount of these oil fields and what is its production capacity at current prices, how the production capacity curve relates to the prices and a comparative figure for India's current oil consumption & estimated growth rate. If you look in that aspect, you will find that the 'discoveries' are peanuts compared to whats necessary.

but my grouse is at the Oil companies didnt show enough intent in exploration.

There is enough intent in the field but you still have to build an engineering & scientific cost-effective exploration plan in the first place! Some of the people i went to highschool with are geologists back in Qatar specializing in this very field. If i knew you better, i'd refer you to them but rest assured, there was/is enough intent on exploration but with a very low success rate and the tiny amounts of oil found in the last 15 years is most definitely a factor against a multi-million dollar drilling venture.

[Bongosamaj]

You gotto be kidding if you are going to point to financials as a reason for not investing in infrastructure, you just need to have a look at the list of the top 25 most profitable companies in 2006 and you will see the names of BP, Royal Dutch Shell, Chevron Texaco, Exxon figure prominently in that list. Oil companies have registering BILLION dollar profits for the last many years now.

Perhaps. But you are still not aware of the effect infrastructure has on CURRENT oil prices and whether it is a worthwhile economic avenue to explore in a finite production field. The economics to this is mindnumbingly complicated but i've seen some very good authorities crunch the numbers and explain it to me, trust me, economic reasons are a BIG DEAL to the infrastructure angle. My father had to spend six months preparing an economic cost-gain proposal for the Qatari government not too long ago and he needed some economic experts from UMann. to crunch the finer details for him. And ultimately, the proposal barely passed because the economic windfall for a 400 million dollar plant was a 0.15% economic GDP return per capita in a nation having 6+% GDP growth. Suffice to say, the cost of infrastructure angle is a very fundamental part of the equation here.

I am telling you dude, its just not the supply-demand situation alone. There's lot of sh!t happening in the middle east. Everytime there is a suicide bombing, a blown embassy, a war , the price shoots by $5.

Gross exgaggeration.

No way ! Nobody will even consider the thought of more expensive alternate sources had the price of oil had not been so high. Proof - All this talk of renewables has started only recently, when the oil price has shot up.

WTF- you are agreeing with me and then disagreeing for the hell of it ? OBVIOUSLY, your observation means that if steep oil prices continue for a few more yrs, it'll convince people irrevocably that alternative to oil is the way to go, even at higher prices. And that is what i said!

Again, a bit of news will help. China is HEAD AND SHOULDERS above the world ( yes, even the west) in contemplating and implementation of green technologies.

I said India has a very good opportunity/can be a winner here. Did not say it is the best damn bet for it or the shining beacon for it. I mentioned India because i am desi and this is a desi place and i pointed out a potential avenue for India to explore. Wtf ? You seek to create an argument just for the hell of it ? Not getting laid much lately or what ?

[Ram]

Perhaps. But you are still not aware of the effect infrastructure has on CURRENT oil prices and whether it is a worthwhile economic avenue to explore in a finite production field. The economics to this is mindnumbingly complicated but i've seen some very good authorities crunch the numbers and explain it to me, trust me, economic reasons are a BIG DEAL to the infrastructure angle. My father had to spend six months preparing an economic cost-gain proposal for the Qatari government not too long ago and he needed some economic experts from UMann. to crunch the finer details for him. And ultimately, the proposal barely passed because the economic windfall for a 400 million dollar plant was a 0.15% economic GDP return per capita in a nation having 6+% GDP growth. Suffice to say, the cost of infrastructure angle is a very fundamental part of the equation here.

Ok, I agree that i dont know much on the infrastructural aspect of oil exploration and therefore there is no point in me harping on that aspect.

Gross exgaggeration.

Exaggeration ? As in ? If you dont trust me when i say " Oil prices shoot up at during war/terrorist/political instability" go check the news yourself.

WTF- you are agreeing with me and then disagreeing for the hell of it ? OBVIOUSLY, your observation means that if steep oil prices continue for a few more yrs, it'll convince people irrevocably that alternative to oil is the way to go, even at higher prices. And that is what i said!

Ok , let me get this straight. You can even go check my previous post to check for consistencies. Point 1 - High oil prices is the primary reason why people have started to look at other alternative sources Point 2 - If say the prices suddenly dropped, then the pace of looking for alternative sources will slow down because people will never give up a cheap source of energy and look at other sources which are more expensive.

I said India has a very good opportunity/can be a winner here. Did not say it is the best damn bet for it or the shining beacon for it. I mentioned India because i am desi and this is a desi place and i pointed out a potential avenue for India to explore. Wtf ? You seek to create an argument just for the hell of it ? Not getting laid much lately or what ?

I am not into ego trips. I wanted to INFORM you that China is much much more well equipped to use green technologies than India. That is all. And the reason why i brought up China specifically because It doesnt get a lot of credit for what it does and there is a huge business potential for green technologies in the future. India does have a lot of potential but infrastructure wise, we are far behind.

[Ram]

Err yes. Peanuts..utter peanuts compared to what is there and what is necessary to make a difference. The total capacity output & reserve of all oil fields explored in the last 15 years do not collectively add up to the Dahran field of Saudi alone.

Will get back to you on this later.

I seriously doubt ANY study that says that. If 2-3x cars on the streets today don't matter, then that is categoric propaganda, not worth a pinch of salt.

Its the per capita consumption that matters and America's per capita consumption has stabilized long time ago. As i said before, its a categoric FACT that China and India have been the main drivers of this price rise, even though America still consumes the most oil amongst all .

Never said others wernt and i am the only authority on this planet on this topic. However, those who know about it in the same way i do/more than me will NOT take your position on oil. And i can refer you to atleast 50 engineers with 10+ years of minimum experience in this field to state how wrong you are.

Fair enough.

Talk numbers to me. This is a field i know a fair bit about as i said. Tell me what is the CONFIRMED reserve amount of these oil fields and what is its production capacity at current prices, how the production capacity curve relates to the prices and a comparative figure for India's current oil consumption & estimated growth rate. If you look in that aspect, you will find that the 'discoveries' are peanuts compared to whats necessary.

I cant rattle off numbers off the top of my head , but i can say with assurance that i have seen many programmes on rising oil prices in which the experts in the field have blamed lack of investment on new oil infrastructure as one of the main reasons.

[Bongosamaj]

Oil prices shoot up at during war/terrorist/political instability" go check the news yourself.

Doesn't have much of a lasting effect IMO.

If say the prices suddenly dropped, then the pace of looking for alternative sources will slow down because people will never give up a cheap source of energy and look at other sources which are more expensive.

The risk is, you may kill off your company (from the producer's angle) in this aspect- I don't think you are understanding the economic angle to this- the billions that the Saudis and other oil rich nations are hoarding is not just sitting in some swiss bank earning interest- it is invested around the globe. The Saudis for example, own over 5% of the entire f*cking American economy! So either way you lose- you crash the oil prices somehow & all the oil nations will do is devalue their holdings/sell them in your economy to create a crisis in YOUR country to recover their cost in the process. This may not apply to India but it certainly applies to a lot of western nations. Plus there is the added risk that some people may continue the research into cheaper alternative energy tech anyways and all it takes is one genuis to tip the scales- tomorrow if someone comes up with a super-cheap PVC (Photo-voltaic cell) or a super-efficient one, the oil industry just goes up in a big puff of smoke. Overall, the general economic tilt is to keep going the way we are.

Its the per capita consumption that matters and America's per capita consumption has stabilized long time ago.

Per capita consumption is bogus in this aspect. For it iscompletely 'shaded over' by the population increase and it doesn't take into account that there are more cars on the road, period. Fact is, there are millions of more cars on the road in the Americas today than in the early 90s. That has to make a difference and if some study claims it does not, i would seriously cast doubt on the credibility of such studies.

but i can say with assurance that i have seen many programmes on rising oil prices in which the experts in the field have blamed lack of investment on new oil infrastructure as one of the main reasons.

Lots of experts whine and create smokescreen. This is one of them.

[Ram]

This is a graph showing the US's per capita consumption of oil Notice that the numbers have almost remained the same from 1985 onwards. ---------- http://www.grinzo.com/energy/graphics_misc/us_oil_per_capita.jpg

[Bongosamaj]

Notice that the numbers have almost remained the same from 1985 onwards.

And what has been the US population rise in this period ? How does that translate into the # of car increase in the country ? What % increase in total vehicle numbers in the US exists in the last 20 years ? per capita means NOTHING in this regard without info on these subjects. And as i said, ask anyone who's lived here for a while (you are new here)- cars on the roads are FAR more common today than in the 80s or early 90s in North America,especially in the rural areas. Now every tom,dick & harry has cars in rural areas, 20 yrs ago, they were very much a novelty.

[Ram]

Doesn't have much of a lasting effect IMO.

I never said it has a "lasting effect", but goes in a long way in ramping up the prices. And just to lend credibility to my argument, i am going to paste excerpts from a BBC article. This is what it says on impact of political instability on the oil price. "This was triggered by simmering tensions between Turkey and Kurdish separatists in northern Iraq and fears of possible incursions by Turkish troops into Iraq. The amount of oil produced in northern Iraq is actually very small while the major pipeline linking the Iraqi town of Kirkuk, just south of the Kurdish region, with Turkey has been shut for long periods since the 2003 invasion of Iraq. But it is fears that the dispute may escalate and threaten oil output in the wider region - Iraq, Iran, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia between them account for 20% of global supplies - which have fanned the price rises. In particular, there are concerns about potential Kurdish reprisals on an important pipeline in Turkey, which delivers 700,000 barrels a day from Azerbaijan to the port of Ceyhan. The situation in northern Iraq is just one of a number of geopolitical factors which are causing uncertainty in the market and helping to push prices up. Iran's push to acquire nuclear power and, many believe, nuclear weapons has sparked concerns it could use its own oil supplies as a bargaining chip in any future showdown. Barely-veiled threats from the US, suggesting that military action remains a live option, have further accentuated fears. Militant violence in Nigeria's largest oil-producing region and recent violence in Afghanistan and the Yemen has also served to inflate prices."

Overall' date=' the general economic tilt is to keep going the way we are.[/quote'] Yes, that is the right thing to do, but it will hard to convince the common man to say replace the gas-powered heater with a much more expensive solar powered heater. There is a lot of difference between doing what is right and doing what is practical.

Lots of experts whine and create smokescreen. This is one of them.

Not one but two experts, but EVERY one of them. Are all of them wrong ?

And what has been the US population rise in this period ? How does that translate into the # of car increase in the country ? What % increase in total vehicle numbers in the US exists in the last 20 years ? per capita means NOTHING in this regard without info on these subjects. And as i said, ask anyone who's lived here for a while (you are new here)- cars on the roads are FAR more common today than in the 80s or early 90s in North America,especially in the rural areas. Now every tom,dick & harry has cars in rural areas, 20 yrs ago, they were very much a novelty.

Dude, me spending time here or not has got nothing to do with how i understand the situation. Obviously, you still dont get the concept of per-capita consumption. Besides, if you still think America is a main reason why prices are going up, read this.. " Why are Prices going up ? Yes. The biggest catalyst for oil's seemingly remorseless rise has been the simplest economic driver there is: the balance between demand and supply. Demand is at an all-time high, fuelled by the continued breakneck economic expansion of the Indian and Chinese economies. With more than a billion people in each country, and both economies growing fast, manufacturers and consumers are sucking in energy at an ever-increasing rate. China overtook Japan as the world's second-largest consumer of oil in 2003 and is closing in on the US, with demand for oil growing at about 15% a year. Analysts worry global demand for oil is so intense that supplies may not keep pace. Demand will rise by an average of 2.2 million barrels a day next year, the International Energy Agency says, compared with the 1.5 million-barrel rise seen in 2007. It says annual demand will rise 2% up to 2012, while other projections suggest demand could soar from about 90 million barrels a day to as much as 140 million over 25 years." Did you see the word US anywhere there ? Atleast try to get my point. Yes, the US is the highest consumer, but its demand from the developing world that is driving prices. -------------------- http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7048600.stm

[Bongosamaj]

Obviously, you still dont get the concept of per-capita consumption. Besides, if you still think America is a main reason why prices are going up, read this..

Dude, i understand Per capita all right- but you do not see the limitations of per capita question when there is a huge population growth! millions of more cars guzzling 1 litre every 15km or so! And no, i didn't say America is the main reason - i said that the rise in the west is nearly as big a reason as rise of China or India, the media just likes to focus on the latter aspect, thats all. The growth in US or Europe over the last 15-20 yrs is also a significant contributor in itself and all the data available points to this as well.

Not one but two experts, but EVERY one of them. Are all of them wrong ?

Dunno which 'experts' they are or what their engineering or geophysics backgrounds are- but if all these dudes you are listening to is talking about not enough production capacity being a big issue, they obviously know NOTHING about how an oil field actually works.

But it is fears that the dispute may escalate and threaten oil output in the wider region - Iraq, Iran, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia between them account for 20% of global supplies - which have fanned the price rises.

Yeah, i don't pay attention to such paranoid scare-mongering or unrealistic crap.

[Ram]

Dude, i understand Per capita all right- but you do not see the limitations of per capita question when there is a huge population growth! millions of more cars guzzling 1 litre every 15km or so! And no, i didn't say America is the main reason - i said that the rise in the west is nearly as big a reason as rise of China or India, the media just likes to focus on the latter aspect, thats all. The growth in US or Europe over the last 15-20 yrs is also a significant contributor in itself and all the data available points to this as well.

Ok, here we go. Yep, to an extent what you say wrt America's absolute consumption is true, it has been increasing even though the per capita consumption is the same. But you must also acknowledge that this demand was forecasted. It was the Chinese/Indian demand that no one was prepared for.

Dunno which 'experts' they are or what their engineering or geophysics backgrounds are- but if all these dudes you are listening to is talking about not enough production capacity being a big issue, they obviously know NOTHING about how an oil field actually works.

Dont know what to say if you are to just dismiss the opinions of industry experts.

Yeah, i don't pay attention to such paranoid scare-mongering or unrealistic crap.

Paranoid ? That is what is happeningh.