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Kashmir : A temporary lull or on path of return to normalcy?


The Outsider

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For the seventh straight year since it's peak in 2001, all militancy figures in Kashmir saw a drop in 2007 and numbers continue to favor further peace in 2008 till now, so much so that civilian, terrorist, and security personnel casualties have all dropped to a fifth or sixth of their numbers in 2001. Infiltration has been difficult to contain though and there has been a spread of violence to other states and cities, the most recent being Jaipur but the state of Kashmir has undoubtedly become a quieter and safer place. Will the trend hold up? What efforts does the state and central government have to keep on making to build on these positives? I'll post some of my thoughts later on in this thread, but you can find a pretty comprehensive look at the numbers here : http://www.satp.org/satporgtp/countries/india/states/jandk/index.html and other links on that website.

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Kashmir is definitely on its way to normalcy. After September 11, Western powers like USA and Britain have made it crystal clear to Pakistan that it cant claim to be a part of a War on Terrorism on its Western front ( against Taleban in Afghanistan), while actively supporting a proxy-war in Kashmir in its eastern front. The 2002 speech by Musharraf, when he declared explicitly for the first time on live national television that Pakistan would not support terrorism in any form is probably the water-shed moment in India Pakistan relations. Besides, Pakistan has enough internal problems in South Waziristan, with the warlords. It has lost 100s of soldiers there in the last few years and has its hands full there. Diverting precious military resources from there to train and arm jehadists in Kashmir is something it couldnt simply afford to do for any longer. So, as long as the Western focus on terrorism remains and Pakistan's internal problems continue to be there, things will remain relatively calm in Kashmir. Of course, the military build-up along the border in 2001, when both the countries amassed nearly a million troops and were just days, if not weeks from war also made sure this issue caught the international's community's attention. The best thing to happen now from an Indian standpoint is a stable, democratic govt in Pakistan for atleast another 6-7 years in a row. Given Pak's history with military dictatorship, thats too much to ask, but if that happens, it will make it easier for the Indian govt to sell the idea of negotiating with a democratic set-up in Pakistan towards the resolution of Kashmir. The hardliners in India will never accept any deal made with a military dictatorship. The good news is, the longer there is peace in Kashmir, the faster the people will get used to this kind of stable, violence free lifestyle. So, even if there is a change in the leadership in Pakistan or some rogue elements in the military decide to take matters in their own hands and arm the militants again, the opposition to violence from native Kashmiris will be higher than ever. Things looking good for India!

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To recall a rather morbid scene from the Marathon Man when Dustin Hoffman is being subjected to torture by a saddistic ex Nazi doctor, who had previously drilled a hole into one Hoffman's molars, upon resuming torture he remarked that he wont be attacking the same dental root again... a damaged nerve is a lot less susceptible to pain than a new one... The foreign sponsored (and i dont mean, foreign state sponsored, there is little to no evidence of that, i do mean agencies that have set up shop in foreign states) terrorism has realized that the India of 1990s is very different from the India of 2000s. The contemporary India is a considerable financial and economical power and its new found prosperity cannot be shunted by periodic bombings of an erstwhile tourist destination which has little economic significance at the moment. Instead, they have directed their energies elsewhere as their goals have changed from a seperatist agenda for a single state to converting the entire country into a particular monotheistic faith the militants subscribe to. Hence, the target of terrorism is now economic powerhouses, often attacking MNC offices, transit centers (especially those catering to the service class) and the periodic infiltration of religious centers. Yes Kashmir might be a bit more silent than before, but it is not because of a lull in terrorist activities. Their energies are currently directed elsewhere and of course, they are involved in self preservation that requires fighting the authorities in their foreign states who are resisting their influence.

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Kashmir is definitely on its way to normalcy. After September 11' date=' Western powers like USA and Britain have made it crystal clear to [b']Pakistan that it cant claim to be a part of a War on Terrorism on its Western front ( against Taleban in Afghanistan), while actively supporting a proxy-war in Kashmir in its eastern front. The 2002 speech by Musharraf, when he declared explicitly for the first time on live national television that Pakistan would not support terrorism in any form is probably the water-shed moment in India Pakistan relations. Besides, Pakistan has enough internal problems in South Waziristan, with the warlords. It has lost 100s of soldiers there in the last few years and has its hands full there. Diverting precious military resources from there to train and arm jehadists in Kashmir is something it couldnt simply afford to do for any longer. So, as long as the Western focus on terrorism remains and Pakistan's internal problems continue to be there, things will remain relatively calm in Kashmir. Of course, the military build-up along the border in 2001, when both the countries amassed nearly a million troops and were just days, if not weeks from war also made sure this issue caught the international's community's attention. The best thing to happen now from an Indian standpoint is a stable, democratic govt in Pakistan for atleast another 6-7 years in a row. Given Pak's history with military dictatorship, thats too much to ask, but if that happens, it will make it easier for the Indian govt to sell the idea of negotiating with a democratic set-up in Pakistan towards the resolution of Kashmir. The hardliners in India will never accept any deal made with a military dictatorship. The good news is, the longer there is peace in Kashmir, the faster the people will get used to this kind of stable, violence free lifestyle. So, even if there is a change in the leadership in Pakistan or some rogue elements in the military decide to take matters in their own hands and arm the militants again, the opposition to violence from native Kashmiris will be higher than ever. Things looking good for India!
sriram it is unfair for you to make that assertion. organizations such as LeT etc have setup shop in Pakistan, in particular Mirpur district and the region refered to as PoK, but it has been some time since they received any support from Pakistani government or army. They have received their fundings from growing number or religious schools that in turn are funded by shiekhs and mullahs in the middle east from their oil wealth, and these outfits recruit from their local, disenchanted and estranged youth to conduct their militancy. they are not part and parcel of Pakistani government and acknowledging this disctinction is a first in a step in the right direction.
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sriram it is unfair for you to make that assertion. organizations such as LeT etc have setup shop in Pakistan' date=' in particular Mirpur district and the region refered to as PoK, but it has been some time since they received any support from Pakistani government or army. They have received their fundings from growing number or religious schools that in turn are funded by shiekhs and mullahs in the middle east from their oil wealth, and these outfits recruit from their local, disenchanted and estranged youth to conduct their militancy. they are not part and parcel of Pakistani government and acknowledging this disctinction is a first in a step in the right direction.[/quote'] Of course, the terror organizations dont depend 100% on the Pakistani govt for their sustenance and operation, but without covert support from the Pakistani army, they would be absolutely crippled. The Pak army offers them comprehensive logistical training, including weapons training, money to operate in India, guerrilla warfare training and safe passage to cross over. In fact, without Pakistani army artillery shelling in the border areas, which acts as a force field for the intruders to cross over without being stopped by the Indian army, none of the Pak terror outfits could ever have the kind of impact that they have now. And trust me, there's no large-scale 'local dis-enchanted youth' who go on to become insurgents. Insurgency out of PoK is run on an almost corporate basis, with people who volunteer to cross over put on monthly payroll by the Pakistani military. There are even assassination bonuses' handed out to militants, if they manage to kill the top brass of the Indian military and if they attain 'martyrdom' while on operation, then their families are taken care of. All this talk of 'Jihad' and 'Allah' is only for the media. Terror enterprises are sometimes almost like corporate outfits.
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In some news in the last fortnight,Hamid Karzai has openly declared that Afghanisthan will go after Taleban terrorists inside Pakistani territory, while American forces killed 11 Pakistani soldiers in an aerial attack near the Pak-Afghan attack. With such problems in Western front, Pak can ill afford to concentrate on the Proxy-war in Kashmir.

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Majority Hindus have lost their ideology, unity to fight with Islamucks, thanks to 60 years brainwashing by NCERT books. Nowadays, our present generation has no clue whatsoever...they are even shy to voice anger for Kashmiri Pandeits. We are a nation where our children go to school and recite praises for Mughals the same very plunderers who raped our women, looted, destroyed our temples over and over again. Hindus are the only people who are brainswashed to praise rapists and looters of their mothers and sisters. We lost Kashmir that very day when a moron named Nehru ignored Sardar Patel's advise and behaved with Islamucks in "dharmic" way of Ahimsa.....add to that Kaangress successfully managed to seperate kashmir from rest of India by amending constitution and prohibiting any Indian to purchase land in Kashmir. Our dhimmi channels make a lot of cry when an irrelevant, small time local politician like Raj calls for prohibiting "parprantiya" for purchasing land in Maharsahtra (knowing fully well that it's plain political speech), those same very channels in in their bigoted ignorance not even care to mention that a highly discriminatory law is implemented in all it's glory by Kaangressis since time immemorial! At one hand KPs were murdered and kicked outside Kashmir at the other hand Hindus from Indian heartrland were prevented to migrate in Kashmir and counter check -- I have no sympathy here for our fellowHindus, we Hindus failed ourselves by electing Kaangres repatedly for 50 years!! This so called temporary lull is a classic example of Al-Taqiyyah (islamic art of deception) The Newly elected joke of a parliament-- the Pakisatani governement is trying to minimize the tight control of army over civilian rule...there is a power struggle going on between terrorist army of Pakistan and Paki government of madrasaa politicians. Add to that regular Predator drone strikes by NATO forces in FATA is keeping them way too occupied to spare time to kill we idolaters. If we think that their dream of waging war against Dar-ul-harb Hindustan and convert it into Dar-ul-islam of Mughaliya era has subsidized then we are in for another Kargil like blunder. Btw..slaughtering of rest of idolater Hindus through IED mubaraks (bomb blasts) will continue on regular basis like Jaipur, Benaras temple, Mumbai trains blasts etc. wait and we will mourn another act of blood and gory.

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My two cents:terrorists are locking horns with pakistan army in pakistani tribal belt hence this apaprent lull. Another point is that they have spread their wings all over india hence spurt in bombing in jaipur varanasi like places. Manpower is same over-all terror incident is same it just ihas been spread all over india hence this parallex of lull.

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The numbers undoubtedly point to a return to normalcy, IMO but as a few of you have pointed out the struggle has spread to previously unheard of areas associated with Islamic terrorism. That can be construed as a good thing also, though. And before anyone jumps on me, let me say loss of any life due to barbaric acts is deplorable to say the least, but the struggle for taking Kashmir away loses focus - they become more like random acts of violence and terrorism. Bossbhai makes a good point, albeit in a sarcastic and caustic way, about Kashmir never being the same and normal without the Pundits returning to the area and being rehabilitated. That is an absolute must for the powers to ensure because without them Kashmir is not complete.

We lost Kashmir that very day when a moron named Nehru ignored Sardar Patel's advise and behaved with Islamucks in "dharmic" way of Ahimsa.....add to that Kaangress successfully managed to seperate kashmir from rest of India by amending constitution and prohibiting any Indian to purchase land in Kashmir.
Do you have any idea of what happened in history? If we had gone the Sardar Patel route on Kashmir, we would not have got anything. It was Nehru's promise of a plebiscite in the absence of troops from India and Pakistan which made us get whatever we have today. The very fact that Pakistan would never agree to withdraw their troops from PoK gives India a huge diplomatic edge on the issue.
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Last time I checked there was no one that the Jihadi's could kill over there ... that state is now 99.99 % Dar-ul-islam .... its called mission complete.
And before someone still keeps persisting that it was only handful of people whoengineered the mass exodus of pandits. hear it from the horse's mouth.. Omar abdullaha finally conceded the fact: In his statement, which first appeared on his blog, Omar Abdullah even chatises himself for not speaking up on the genocide, lamenting the fact that none of them stood up and had the courage to say the atrocities must stop. "It's so easy to say that we"ll lay down our lives to bring Kashmiri Pandits back to the valley and I appreciate the sentiment. Pity that sentiment was missing when our mosques were being used to drive these people out. None of us said this is wrong and the Kashmiri Pandits had every right to continue living in the valley. We were mute spectators either mute in agreement or mute in abject fear, but mute none the less," he writes.While this is the first time a mainstream Kashmiri politician has spoken so strongly on the plight of these Kashmiri Pandits, Omar's sentiments will not make the Kashmiri Pandits forget the feeling
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Do you have any idea of what happened in history? If we had gone the Sardar Patel route on Kashmir' date=' we would not have got anything. It was Nehru's promise of a plebiscite in the absence of troops from India and Pakistan which made us get whatever we have today. The very fact that Pakistan would never agree to withdraw their troops from PoK gives India a huge diplomatic edge on the issue.[/quote'] Hyderabad was more complex than Kashmir and we all know how Patel handled it. IN a way Nizama was staunch pakistan sympathiser while Shiekh Abdullah was anything but pakistan symathier. In early years SheikH abdullah was staunch antipakistan and anti-jinnah. To make matters worse the pathan Afridid tribe had gone on mass looting and **** hence the public opnion viz a viz pakistan had ebbed further. All Nehru needed is to hang in there till whole kashmir region gets recovered or better still wud have sent in troops much earlier. HE made one after another mistakes...Had Nehru not used the word plebiscite this issue would have long died.. Despite all this situation wud have been different if not for Indira/Rajeev. Indira was the habitual abuser of article 357 whereby states govt used to be treated with scorn and abolished whenever she willed, Rajeev Was cut from the same wool. She should have been more careful while showing her autocratic streak at least in matters of Kashmir. these two gentlemen through their lust for power drove those otherwise india sympathise kashmiri population in arms of jihadis. I won't be surprised this change in image of indian govt among pakistani has alot to do with the free and fair election held during NDA regime after ages in kashmir. When people know they can voice their opniion and change the govt rebellious forces find it hard to sell their ideas..
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Hyderabad was more complex than Kashmir and we all know how Patel handled it. IN a way Nizama was staunch pakistan sympathiser while Shiekh Abdullah was anything but pakistan symathier. In early years SheikH abdullah was staunch antipakistan and anti-jinnah.
In a way you have a point - about the loyalties of the leadership - but the geographical location of Hyderabad meant that is was going to become a part of India at some point anyways. It did not have a huge population like Bangladesh and was even further away from Pakistan and even more culturally alienated. There was zero chance of Hyderabad surviving as part of Pakistan.
All Nehru needed is to hang in there till whole kashmir region gets recovered or better still wud have sent in troops much earlier. HE made one after another mistakes...Had Nehru not used the word plebiscite this issue would have long died..
It wasn't so straight forward. Nehru had very little choice but to agree on a plebiscite - in fact to his credit he made the conditions of the plebiscite impossible to fulfill even from a Pakistani perspective. Those were not the days where India was in a position to bully around and with the new superpower after WW-II, US being firmly seated on the Pakistani lobby whatever Nehru did was commendable. BTW, I agree with your points against Indra and Rajeev and hold them as the biggest culprits for the Kashmir mess so you cannot accuse me of being a Congressi, as is your wont, for my praise of Nehru above and moreover I also agree that the free and fair election under the NDA govt. in Kashmir has played a big part in this recovery.
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The CREDIT should go to Indian armed forces...... I'm sure the no. of infiltration is same compared to years before but it's the credit to our armed forces who risk their lives everyday to keep terrorism in check while our politicians find ways to make "friendship" with pakistan. India is the ONLY country where kashmiri hindus are REFUGEES in their own countries, yet you will see NO MEDIA coverage on that compared to gujrat riots. Ask a pakistani, they all know about gujrat thoroughly but none of them knows about plight of kashmiri pundits (or maybe they ignore it since they only care abt other muslims ie: palestine)

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Tourists flock back to Kashmir By Geeta Pandey BBC News, Srinagar Not long ago, people on flights from Delhi to Srinagar, capital of Indian-administered Kashmir, were either government officials, local businessmen or journalists. Years of fighting between separatist militants and Indian security forces had created a feeling that it was unsafe to travel to the region and tourists stayed away. But now travellers are back in numbers. At Delhi airport, my fellow passengers are families and other tourists. The queue at the departure gate is noisy with happy chatter and the squeals of excited children. On the flight, the conversation is about cheap airline tickets, mountains, lakes and snow. Improved security In Srinagar in the early evening, the boulevard near Dal Lake is buzzing with tourists. Shopkeepers selling traditional Kashmiri handicraft and embroidered clothes call out to prospective buyers and women in jeans, T-shirts and sleeveless tops admire the wares on display. The turn-around in tourism can be attributed directly to improved security in the past few years - India and Pakistan have better relations and incidents of violence are greatly reduced. And a semblance of peace has brought in more visitors than ever before. In 1989, before militancy erupted in Kashmir, there were 250,000 visitors. This year, there were 400,000 visitors in the first six months. Many in the tourist trade find it hard to suppress their glee. Taxis and tourist coaches are doing roaring business ferrying visitors from Srinagar to the other tourist hotspots of Gulmarg, Sonmarg and Pahalgam. "There are 15 flights landing in Srinagar a day and each one is chock-a-block with tourists," says Nazir A Bakshi of Shiraz Travels. 'Making money' Mr Bakshi is handling 5,000 tourists at the moment and his phone is ringing off the hook. "You can't get a hotel room in Srinagar or Pahalgam easily. Everything is booked. We have a situation where we are refusing customers." Mr Bakshi says for the first time in many years, "a lot of people are making a lot of money". He says if things continue the way they are "we can expect up to 700,000 tourists this year". By 2010, he expects that number to cross the one-million mark. Some say even that is a conservative estimate. But is Kashmir prepared for this influx? Yes and no. Many of the hotels and houseboats which had shut down during the years of insurgency have reopened. As the situation improved, new hotels have been built and many have been refurbished. Now, the tourism department is also inviting applications for "bed and breakfast" and "paying guest" accommodation to meet the ever-growing need. "There are new, better hotels coming up at all tourist destinations. The number of rooms has increased manifold in the last few years," says Mr Sarmad Hafeez, joint director in the state tourism department. "The remarkable thing this year is that we have received a lot of high-end visitors - we've had golfers, skiers and leisure tourists - who spend a lot of money and hence contribute to the local economy." Few foreigners Srinagar's new international airport is due to open at the end of the year and Mr Hafeez says direct flights from Dubai, Singapore and Bangkok will bring in more tourists. But, he admits, a lot more needs to be done. "At the moment, about 10,000 visitors arrive in Kashmir every day. We need to develop full infrastructure, build better hotels if we want to have more affluent visitors." Almost everyone I speak to here says too few foreign tourists are coming to Kashmir. "In 1989, 14 flights used to land in Srinagar every day from Delhi, Bombay [Mumbai] and Ahmedabad. Twelve of those used to be full of foreign tourists. The foreigners prefer to stay in houseboats. We want those types of tourists," says the chairman of the Houseboat Owners' Association, M Azim Tuman. After militancy peaked in the 1990s, most Western governments advised against travel to Kashmir. Since then, the number of European and American visitors has been a trickle - and tourism officials are trying to change that. "Militant attacks happen everywhere in the world. New York, London, Delhi, Bombay, everyplace has seen attacks. And more people die on Delhi's roads because they are hit by buses than in militancy-related violence in Kashmir. Why single us out," Mr Hafeez asks? "In fact, Kashmir is the safest - there's no crime against women here, there have been no instances of **** or molestation. It's time for the Western governments to reconsider their travel advisories," he says. 'Thrilled' For the moment, Indian tourists are having a great time in Srinagar. The lake front is crowded with holiday-makers and most houseboats have "house full" signs. The Satyamurthy family are "thrilled" to be here. "We went to Sonmarg this morning, the children saw snow for the first time today. They were so excited," says mother Usha Satyamurthy. Her son, Vikram, says: "I had heard that there are terrorists here. But I'm not afraid any more." Father V Satyamurthy says he wanted to bring his children to ensure there were "no demons in the mind". And if hundreds of thousands of visitors are anything to go by, the demons of Kashmir's immediate past seem to be losing their grip But uncertainty about the future remains. "Tourism is important for Kashmir. But it's a very touchy industry," says the president of the Kashmir Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Mubeen Shah. "Something happens and the tourists would be the first ones to run away." --------------------------------- http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/7468665.stm

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Also, the Indian oil Minister has said the India-Iran-Pakistan oil pipeline project is only days away from formal agreeement. This is the strongest signal yet that things have turned a corner between India and Pakistan. No Indian govt willl ever sign an agreement with that pays a Pakistani gove billions of dollars in royalties and transit rights, if it believes that Pakistani govt was actively involved in supporting a proxy-war in Indian territory. That would be almost like that Indian govt indirectly sponsoring terrorism in our own land. Pakistan has finally realized that India isnt its biggest threat to security. Obviously, their security policies and geo-political outlook has undergone a transformational change. Another sign of the warming up of the relations has been the relative lull in missile testing/arms procurement of the two countries. Till a a few years ago, both countries were engaged in an almost tit-for-tat missle tests, with India testing the longer version of its Agni missile, while Pakistan replied with its own tests of the Shaheen missile. India was also engaged in active attempt to buy high-tech military equipment, including the Su-30 MKI, Arrow Anti-missile system, the aircraft carrier Admiral Gorshkov and the T-90 tanks from Russia. Now, those type of military announcements have almost disappeared.

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Also' date=' the Indian oil Minister has said the India-Iran-Pakistan oil pipeline project is only days away from formal agreeement. This is the strongest signal yet that things have turned a corner between India and Pakistan. No Indian govt willl ever sign an agreement with that pays a Pakistani gove billions of dollars in royalties and transit rights, if it believes that Pakistani govt was actively involved in supporting a proxy-war in Indian territory. [b']That would be almost like that Indian govt indirectly sponsoring terrorism in our own land. Pakistan has finally realized that India isnt its biggest threat to security. Obviously, their security policies and geo-political outlook has undergone a transformational change. Another sign of the warming up of the relations has been the relative lull in missile testing/arms procurement of the two countries. Till a a few years ago, both countries were engaged in an almost tit-for-tat missle tests, with India testing the longer version of its Agni missile, while Pakistan replied with its own tests of the Shaheen missile. India was also engaged in active attempt to buy high-tech military equipment, including the Su-30 MKI, Arrow Anti-missile system, the aircraft carrier Admiral Gorshkov and the T-90 tanks from Russia. Now, those type of military announcements have almost disappeared.
Unfortunately there are scores of incidents which suggests exactly same thing some parties for electoral gains would not stop from doing anything.. For instance supreme court has said that special law whereby responsibility of proving citizenship lies with admin in case of people accused of being bangaldeshi aliens.. Mind you for the rest of the world if u are living in india and claim indian citizenshipo u have to prove that u are an indian citizen but for bangaldeshi rules are different......What does congress do goes ahaead neuiters Sc judgement and brings the same legislation through backdoor.. Given Bangaldesh is coming as hub of terror network and in majority fo the cases these aliens are the foot-soldiers.. One can safely say UPA govt is facilitataing the way for terror in india..... Just one month back indian govt has said no lull in isi activity in kashmir suddenly in a month everything disappeared .. no chance.. That pipeline deal well wait and watch it has been weeks aways since years.. Although Zardaari has made favourbale noise viz a viz india but everyone knows where the real power lies in pakistan unless those masters from army house undo the slow bleeding of india this is nto going to stop.. As I mentioned the idiots from across the border have spread their wings elsewhere and are fighting their own mentor in tribal regions so the frequency of their activities in valley has gone down... Who freaking knows these guys once again might be plannign another kargil I vividly remember the level of apparent mutual trust was at all time hihg before that episode unravelled itself..
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^Being mute is completely different from being active participants which is what you guys blame the majority of the Muslims in Kashmir of.
For mutes in fear I wud give benefit of doubt but mutes in agreement well is same as being foot soldier.... Even those same who were purportedly mute in fear seem to have no fear now in asking kashmiri pandits sud be brought back..... Well this tells me they were not mute under fear even then it was mostly and agrrement , fear was an alibi. And PC/psec crowd was loooking for any excuse to give them clean-chit and they latched on to this alibi. Moreover you don't really expect a leader to say in unequivocal terms that we all did it. he will be booked under charges of spreading hatred amongst communities in addition to ruining his electoral prospects for eternity. Even here he has so smartly blamed himself too and I am sure he was not one of them given his father was india bidder all along but he said it in order to soften the blow if people take umbrage to his statement. In public office those statements of Abdullah are as close to admisison of guilt as a mass-leader can go....
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BTW same set of inidividuals are working overtime upholding the theory of Aashish nandy incrimnating whole middle class of Gujarat just because a godhara gave rise to post-godhara. No genocide no mass exodus no religious purging of demography nothing of the sort we saw in Kashmir yet that riot is good enough reason for the theory that whole middle class was party to that post-godhara. Come to kashmir same set of indidivudlas have different rule of assessment.

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