Guest dada_rocks Posted January 19, 2009 Posted January 19, 2009 Modi fan club will have to wait Swapan Dasgupta Sometime in the mid-1990s, I flippantly wrote in a book review that an unintended consequence of the Ayodhya controversy was its contribution in improving our collective knowledge of German history. The allusion was to the tomes by Left wing pamphleteers trying to discover similarities between contemporary India and the last days of the Weimar Republic in Germany. As we complete the first decade of the 21st century, the contrived spectre of fascism no longer dominates the Left-liberal discourse, despite finding passing mention. The BJP, which was supposed to be the face of Indian fascism, was in power at the Centre and flits in and out of Governments in the States. Unlike the Congress under Indira Gandhi, it has not even attempted to institutionalise one-party rule. The democratic Constitution hasn’t been junked for a totalitarian vision. Most important, what might loosely be called the Indian Creed remains perched between the non-denominational and multi-faith. The threat of fascism — if at all it can be called that — comes from deranged fanatics who stage bomb blasts, kill innocent bystanders and swear undying commitment to a new, divinely-ordained Caliphate. The interest in modern German history has retreated to the caves of academic obscurity where it jostles for mind-space with any history that predates the arrival of the Facebook. Given the minuscule interest in Europe’s troubled past, it was amusing to find Congress spokesman Manish Tewari invoke German history once again to explain the endorsement of Narendra Modi’s leadership potential by industrialists Anil Ambani and Sunil Bharti Mittal. Many German industrialists, Tewari reminded people, had endorsed Adolf Hitler and facilitated his rise to power. ] The banal equation of the Gujarat Chief Minister with Hitler was a predictable piece of political pamphleteering. What was more intriguing was Tewari’s implied suggestion that today’s UPA Government was akin to the unstable Weimer Republic that Hitler found so easy to subsume in collective hysteria. If India of 2009 is comparable to the Germany of 1931-32 (the point at which German industry began viewing Hitler as a possible saviour), it does not speak much for Tewari’s faith in the abilities of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, Congress President Sonia Gandhi and heir apparent Rahul Gandhi. Dynastic loyalists are entitled to compare Tewari’s back-handed indictment of his party’s leadership with the generous endorsement of Rahul by Her Majesty’s Foreign Secretary. In fact as self-goals go, BJP spokesman Rajiv Pratap Rudy did a far better job by asking an incredulous media: “Do industrialists appoint Prime Ministers?†Of course Messrs Ambani, Mittal and a galaxy of others who attended the Vibrant Gujarat meet in Ahmedabad and felt exactly the same way, don’t have the casting vote in the selection of Prime Ministers. Indeed, industrialists tend to be extremely circumspect about their political preferences — a legacy of Indira Gandhi’s vengeful attitude towards those she saw as politically hostile. What does this uncharacteristic show of preference for a man many people regard as a complete pariah tell us about contemporary India? First, it has to be said at the outset that the endorsement of Modi as a future leader of India is something that is spoken about quite openly in the middle classes across India. Within the BJP-voting section of the population, Modi’s appeal is equal to that of Atal Behari Vajpayee in his prime. LK Advani commands respect among the faithful; Modi’s appeal is inspirational. However, owing to a variety of reasons, including political correctness, media self-censorship and an unwillingness to offend those who are already at the helm, Modi’s pan-Indian appeal hasn’t found adequate reflection in the public domain. Ambani and Mittal prised a subterranean current overground. Second, the appeal of Modi is not based on a uniform perception of the man. It is centered on three different (but not necessarily contradictory) impulses. To some, Modi appears as an unflinching nationalist in the Chhatrapati Shivaji mould, one who is unflinching in taking on the enemies of India, particularly terrorists inside the country and abroad. His own fierce personal integrity has added to the charm and his trouble with a US visa has reinforced his image as a man who can keep his nerve. To others he comes across as a strong, no-nonsense leader very much like Indira Gandhi. During the Gujarat elections of 2007, I found that whereas Modi’s imperiousness created mutterings inside the BJP, it was his ability to show small-time politicians their place which endeared him to the voters. The third appeal of Modi is centered on his reputation as a pragmatic, open-minded and committed moderniser. His purposeful control over his administration, his ability to cut red-tape, reduce corruption and make efficiency a hallmark of governance separates him from fellow politicians. No wonder Indian industry supports him enthusiastically. Finally, the growing clamour for Modi to don a national mantle is an implicit indictment of the existing leadership of the national parties. It is significant that Modi is one of the few politicians on the wrong side of 50 who is not burdened with the charge of not being sensitive to Young India. As the composition of his rallies testifies, Modi inspires Young India with his concerns, his track record, his integrity and his raw aggression. In electoral terms, Modi’s positioning is unique. It is, however, unlikely that Modi will occupy centrestage in the General Election that is just three months away. For different reasons, neither the BJP leadership (as opposed to the rank-and-file) nor the NDA partners are in favour. As a matter of fact, Modi too doesn’t feel that this is the time to leave Gujarat. He is unequivocally committed to Advani’s candidature. The Modi Fan Club will have to await the election to the 16th Lok Sabha before it can translate its enthusiasm into a landmark verdict.
MarathaPride Posted January 19, 2009 Posted January 19, 2009 Modi fan club will have to wait It is, however, unlikely that Modi will occupy centrestage in the General Election that is just three months away. For different reasons, neither the BJP leadership (as opposed to the rank-and-file) nor the NDA partners are in favour. As a matter of fact, Modi too doesn’t feel that this is the time to leave Gujarat. He is unequivocally committed to Advani’s candidature. The Modi Fan Club will have to await the election to the 16th Lok Sabha before it can translate its enthusiasm into a landmark verdict. Highly Disappointing. If there has ever been a right time to take command of this country, it is now. If not the PM-ship, I hope Modi will be given a prominent role (provided BJP wins) in the new govt - possibly a dual one comprising both Home and Finance ministries.
suraj Posted January 19, 2009 Posted January 19, 2009 What are the chances of a BJP win this time in India??
fineleg Posted January 19, 2009 Posted January 19, 2009 ^ National security is important, but does not mean folks will just give up secular india. (not p-sec as u folks call it, but secular)
suraj Posted January 19, 2009 Posted January 19, 2009 ^ National security is important' date=' but does not mean folks will just give up secular india. (not p-sec as u folks call it, but secular)[/quote'] Finey stop your faltu ki bakwas who talked about secular. p-secular here?? Stop bringing irrelevant agenda items to every thread.
fineleg Posted January 19, 2009 Posted January 19, 2009 BS - I dont need to prove to you by researching articles to show who is secular or p-sec. Extremist views are apparent when some of you state those mass conversion of people of one religion to another or throw them out of India etc.
punjabi_khota Posted January 19, 2009 Posted January 19, 2009 ^ National security is important' date=' but does not mean folks will just give up secular india. (not p-sec as u folks call it, but secular)[/quote'] So folks gave up secular India in 1999 and reclaimed it in 2004 ?
Ram Posted January 19, 2009 Posted January 19, 2009 BJP has an excellent chance to come back to power, not because there are any better off than Congress, but purely due to anti-incumbency. Remember the last General election? All the 'Bharat Uday' and 'India shining' campaigns that the govt. did? Back then, the ruling BJP coalition tried to paint the rosiest of pictures about India, but it didnt work. In the four years of Congress coalition, things have worsened for the common man. Prices have gone up, there have been more terrorist attacks. Not that the Cong. could have done anything about it, even if the BJP had been in power, these things would have happened anyway. So, if the BJP plays its coalition cards well ( makes good strategic alliance decisions in states where its not strong) and does not make the same mistake it made last ( of not portraying a Prime-Ministerial candidate), it could possibly win. However, for the BJP to have any chance, it must do well in UP and thats where it may lose out badly. Traditionally, if Lok Sabha elections come immediately after state elections, the party that won the state elections generally tend to sweep the LS elections. So, the BSP may significantly increase its tally in UP, hitting BJP even harder. Likewise, BJP will probably win most of the seats in Madhya Pradesh. Congress will most certainly win in Rajasthan, riding on the popular wave of its state election win. But, it faces a tough prospect in Mahararshtra, given the recent terror attacks and the internal bickering that followed in Cong. reg. who's the next CM. BJP can almost write off W.Bengal anyway, because they've repeatedly placed their faith on Mamta and she's given back nought. Gujrat will go to BJP, riding on the Modi wave. So, essentially, most of North India will probably be split b/w the NDA and the UPA. So, the battle front could be the South. However, BJP is considerably weak there and needs the support of allies. In TN, an alliance with the ADMK is ruled out as Jayalalithaa has spoken about a third front.
fineleg Posted January 19, 2009 Posted January 19, 2009 BJP has an excellent chance to come back to power, not because there are any better off than Congress, but purely due to anti-incumbency. Remember the last General election? All the 'Bharat Uday' and 'India shining' campaigns that the govt. did? Back then, the ruling BJP coalition tried to paint the rosiest of pictures about India, but it didnt work. ..... So, essentially, most of North India will probably be split b/w the NDA and the UPA. So, the battle front could be the South. However, BJP is considerably weak there and needs the support of allies. In TN, an alliance with the ADMK is ruled out as Jayalalithaa has spoken about a third front. You are prolly right. For TN, there is almost always anti-incumbency wave - round robin DMK and ADMK. Maybe like you say, even in center they will start playing the round robin algorithm between Kaangress and BJP (aka HJP - hindu). Both parties are cra.p anyway in their own respect.
fineleg Posted January 19, 2009 Posted January 19, 2009 ^ triam! OMG! how would it be if JJ as PM and Laloo as Deputy PM!? :omg:
Ram Posted January 19, 2009 Posted January 19, 2009 You are prolly right. For TN, there is almost always anti-incumbency wave - round robin DMK and ADMK. Maybe like you say, even in center they will start playing the round robin algorithm between Kaangress and BJP (aka HJP - hindu). Both parties are cra.p anyway in their own respect. You cant apply the same analogy. Remember, T.N has been much like the Republican Vs Democrat model.. Two parties swapping power every other term. But as far as the centre is concerned, its almost inconceivable for a single party to claim a majority, unless there's something incredible, like an assassination or another round of religious riots or a short war with Pakistan. Also, the two main parties (Cong and BJP) are weak in too many states and are dependent on allies. Amma as PM ?:sick: The only possibility by which she could become PM is if a third front emerges as a considerable force in the coming elections. If parties like the BSP, Left, ADMK and other smaller parties claim a considerable chunk of seats(anywhere b/w 150-180 seats), there's a possibility of them forming govt because there's a good chance that Congress will give them outside support, just to keep the NDA out of power. In that scenario, Jayalalithaa could emerge the consensus/compromise candidate for the post of PM (much like Manmohan Singh, Dewe Gowda, I.K Gujral... These guys were never meant to become PMs, but there was simply no other alternative). Technically, if a third front does emerge, Mayawati should become PM because she is, without doubt, the candidate with the most mass popularity, but it is to be seen whether the Cong. will ever accept her as PM.
Ram Posted January 19, 2009 Posted January 19, 2009 But for the Gujrat riots, I would have been rooting hook, line and sinker for Modi. The man's without doubt an outstanding administrator and one of the cleanest politicians( no corruption, no favoritism, is not afraid to take on the rebels). But Gujrat 2002 will forever haunt him.
Ram Posted January 19, 2009 Posted January 19, 2009 ^ triam! OMG! how would it be if JJ as PM and Laloo as Deputy PM!? :omg: Dont sound mocking.. Jayalalithaa will make an outstanding PM. I think she ranks among the Best CMs India has ever had, along with Modi and ex-Goa CM Manohar Parikkar( who incidentally, is an IIT graduate). When she came to power in T.N, in 2001, she was left with a treasury that had been ground to bankruptcy by the previous DMK regime that lavished the state govt. employees by increasing their pay-scales to be on par with central govt. employees and a slew of other populist measures like assuring rice at 2 rs/kilo, a t.v set for all slum dwellers(!!) etc just to win the state election. It didnt work and ADMK came to power and if you recollect, Jayalalithaa was one of the few CMs to boldly take on the state govt. employees. She immediate introduced lots of austerity measures, including cutting the bonuses of the state govt. employees. When the employees protested, she suspended lakhs ( yes lakhs) of employees without pay. Has any other CM done that in the history of India? Under her, T.N's finances rose from absolute dusk to dawn. She also made T.N the state with the most industrial activity, with only Gujrat under Modi reclaiming that position later on. The only black dot in her resume is her absolute contempt for human rights. In her 1991-1996 tenure as CM, she routinely misused the state police and machinery to settle personal scores against opposition parties (Lots of random cases filed against opposition party leaders). Other notable chief ministers who have a very good reputation are Naveen Patnaik and Nitish Kumar. But apart from these select 5-6 guys, rest of them are just crap.
Ram Posted January 19, 2009 Posted January 19, 2009 considering how the self styled generals of Secularism operate he would have gotten hounded for something as silly as tipping a waitress .... forget riots ... Who gives a **** about facts ... :haha: BTW more people died in the Delhi riots , there was emergency for about 2 yrs under IG and there was someone like Sanjay Gandhi (and now Mata Rome) ..... yet the Gandhi family and its Kaangress party is sickular wonly .... :winky: And thats precisely the reason why I am not supporting the Congress either. I would rather have third front, but the possibility of that happening is quite remote.
punjabi_khota Posted January 20, 2009 Posted January 20, 2009 And thats precisely the reason why I am not supporting the Congress either. I would rather have third front' date=' but the possibility of that happening is quite remote.[/quote'] Third front consisting of the likes of Laloo,Maya,Amma ??
fineleg Posted January 20, 2009 Posted January 20, 2009 MM, Have you forgotten the vast corruption and wealth hoarding in Amma's regime? Herself, benamis and Sasikala ring a bell? Are you saying JJ is gonna be an outstanding PM? I cannot believe it. Jewels, and diamond studded shoes in racks and I can go on and on about the corruption. Also, in anycase, hardly ever a TN politician is gonna be elected as PM of India in reality - IMO.
Ram Posted January 20, 2009 Posted January 20, 2009 Third front consisting of the likes of Laloo' date='Maya,Amma ??[/quote'] Add the Left to your list too. And posibly Janata Dal Secular( Dewe Gowda's part won significant amount of seats in the last legislative election in Karnataka) and the J&K's National Conference. Almost all those these parties were part of the original third front that came to power in 1996-97. There's no way this group can muster 270 seats. The way by which they can come to power is if Congress gives them outside support, which they may do, just to keep BJP out of power. But such a govt. is doomed to fail within 12-15 months, with lots of internal bickering for which party gets the important ministries and so on.
Ram Posted January 20, 2009 Posted January 20, 2009 MM, Have you forgotten the vast corruption and wealth hoarding in Amma's regime? Herself, benamis and Sasikala ring a bell? Are you saying JJ is gonna be an outstanding PM? I cannot believe it. Jewels, and diamond studded shoes in racks and I can go on and on about the corruption. Also, in anycase, hardly ever a TN politician is gonna be elected as PM of India in reality - IMO. And if you think any other CMs are any better off than her, you are totally misinformed. She was horrible in her tenure b/w 1991-96, but was simply outstanding b/w 2001-2006. It was a shame that her govt. was voted out in 2006.
punjabi_khota Posted January 20, 2009 Posted January 20, 2009 Add the Left to your list too. And posibly Janata Dal Secular( Dewe Gowda's part won significant amount of seats in the last legislative election in Karnataka) and the J&K's National Conference. Almost all those these parties were part of the original third front that came to power in 1996-97. There's no way this group can muster 270 seats. The way by which they can come to power is if Congress gives them outside support, which they may do, just to keep BJP out of power. But such a govt. is doomed to fail within 12-15 months, with lots of internal bickering for which party gets the important ministries and so on. Yup, they will not last long and that is probably a good thing. I mean even if they survive, they will churn out some kind of crappy common minimum program, with each party using their 'veto' on passing any important bills/deals. It will basically result in lots of regional level appeasing, and not much progress of the nation as a whole, and skipping major issues. Also, I would rather not see the day when Lalu or Mayawati get close to PM seat or even home/defence.
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