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Posted
There is some good news. Raghuram Rajan is tipped to be next chief economic advisor
It will not matter,The govt does not have the strength to get any bills passed.
Posted
I am not interested in the usual Congressi/BJP nonsense.. Quite frankly, any govt of ours is completely defunct, so i wouldnt single one over the other. All I know for a fact that India is a very small player when it comes to world economics. Sure, our name comes up often in world news for things like the moon mission/Agni V and blah blah, but when it comes to hard economics, we are still subject to the whims and fancies of the world market. Our per Capita is still appalling low, so we need a vibrant global market to sustain economic growth. You talked about how govt. could do more to encourage business and boost exports and things like that. I agree with that, but the changes required to promote business needs massive investment in infrastructure, that we totally miss. Building infrastructure takes decades. So even if any govt. chooses to build infrastructure now, it will take a couple of decades for you to see changes. And If i can draw an analogy for India's crisis outside, it would probably be Iceland. We all know Iceland as one of the best run countries in the world (occupies the top strata in every living indicator), but do you know that because of the crsis in 2008, Iceland nearly became bankrupt and defaulted. Now would you blame the Icelandic govt. for inaction on that? Of course not. There many countries in the world (including many in Europe, Asia, India), whose economic prosperity is directly tied to the global economic growth. If the world grows, we boom. If the world slows, we suffer. There's very little our govts. can do to change that. With regards to gas prices in India - Just wanted to give some basic bath. One barrel of oil roughly gives around 150 litres of gas. Thats about $.6/litre of oil. Thats just basic raw material cost. If you add to that the shipping cost, refining cost, storage cost, labor cost, logistical costs etc, you would have at least double that, which would mean every litre of petrol in India costs around $1.2 to produce (And I have not even factored in the profits for distributors, dealers etc), or in rupee terms, around 65-70 rupees. The cost of 1 litre of petrol in India is around 65 rupees. So yes, the govt. is correct in saying that the petrol is still subsidized in India and they are still losing money.
Completely agree . I am not a Congress fan , but if people think BJP govt will suddenly change things around ..they are just kidding themselves. The current govt is probabaly the most currupt ever , but they do have better experience in handling a situation like this . tbh considering how bad europe is hit , I will take a 5% GDP growth & rupee stays under 60 for a couple of years .
Posted
Here is what is also happening at another level: Property prices are so inflated in India that its more expensive to buy a house in gurgaon than in bay area. There are 2 ways for this to correct, one is price crash and other is devaluation of rupee Btw lol at all my friends who were asking me to move my savings to India and invest in those dodgy icici schemes
Mumbai is probabaly slightly inflated , but if you look at demand-supply in the city , dont expect a crash any time soon . I would still buy property ( specifically land ) in cities like Bangalore , pune and chennai . what dodgy icici schemes ?
Posted

Earlier than I though. But you heard it right here people. The Sardar is an object of ridicule for most of us and rightly so perhaps. But the amount of trust the markets have in him is beyond belief. His actions in 1991 were nothing short of miraculous and he will take some huge steps in days and weeks to come, rest assured. The rupee fell Rs 1.2, just for his few statements and indications.

Posted

Undercurrents of optimism about reform, and some fighting talk, in India http://www.economist.com/node/21557783?fsrc=scn/fb/wl/ar/thefightback 20120630_FNC489.png

India’s rupee has lost a fifth of its value against the dollar in the past year, reflecting global woes but also a slowdown in India and a drying up of capital inflows. But IKEA, a Swedish furniture chain, boosted morale by saying it would invest up to €1.5 billion ($1.9 billion) in the country—although on closer inspection that sum was spread over many years. Coca-Cola followed suit with the announcement of an additional $3 billion in investment
Posted

I think that the solution lies somewhere in between what Ram and Kabira / Sachin = GOD have expressed. There's no denying the fact that India currently does not control its ow destiny. We are "bond" to the vagaries of global market and global politics. Having said that, (and as Ram himself has mentioned) the only way out of this bondage is to grow from within...become strong internally...create more opportunity within and make use of the 1.2 billion strong market place...make schemes that foster innovation...get our tech companies to concentrate on building the market inside India instead of just focusing on US and Europe markets. But doing all this requires you to have a government that is visionary and purposeful. I am afraid the current government has lost the plot. They are more bothered about remaining in power than to do something with it. And this is killing the country big time. Lack of political will...policy paralysis...pandering to the whims and fancies of every mary, mariam, and mamata...we've already killed the India story. Whoever forms the government in 2014 is really gonna have their hands full

Posted
I think that the solution lies somewhere in between what Ram and Kabira / Sachin = GOD have expressed. There's no denying the fact that India currently does not control its ow destiny. We are "bond" to the vagaries of global market and global politics. Having said that, (and as Ram himself has mentioned) the only way out of this bondage is to grow from within...become strong internally...create more opportunity within and make use of the 1.2 billion strong market place...make schemes that foster innovation...get our tech companies to concentrate on building the market inside India instead of just focusing on US and Europe markets. But doing all this requires you to have a government that is visionary and purposeful. I am afraid the current government has lost the plot. They are more bothered about remaining in power than to do something with it. And this is killing the country big time. Lack of political will...policy paralysis...pandering to the whims and fancies of every mary, mariam, and mamata...we've already killed the India story. Whoever forms the government in 2014 is really gonna have their hands full
We always focus more on services than manufacturing. I would like to see data on this aspect but my guess is that we generate most of our revenue out of "service". The day that balance is restored will be the day we will stop relying on others.
Posted

Getting FDI into Indias retail and aviation market as well as removing subsidies to balance the budget would probably be a big first step. Thankfully Manmohan Singh knows this but their is way too much special interest even within his own party that are preventing even these minor reforms to pass.

Posted
We always focus more on services than manufacturing. I would like to see data on this aspect but my guess is that we generate most of our revenue out of "service". The day that balance is restored will be the day we will stop relying on others.
We are attempting to big the first Country ever to become developed without relying on a large percentage of people moving from agricultural sector to the manufacturing sector. Instead we are trying to go from Agriculture straight to service. We are pretty much trying to avoid the first major step in becoming a fully developed 1st world country.
Posted
Compared to developed and some developing countries property is still cheap in india.
A recent times of India survey showed that property prices in Indian metros are as high and in some cases higher than the major cities of Us and Europe.
Posted
We are attempting to big the first Country ever to become developed without relying on a large percentage of people moving from agricultural sector to the manufacturing sector. Instead we are trying to go from Agriculture straight to service. We are pretty much trying to avoid the first major step in becoming a fully developed 1st world country.
I have no qualms if we do make it although it might not be possible. If we were a small country like Singapore then I think we could have done that but given India's population, land mass, diversity, and all other such factors it is very difficult to become a developed nation without having stable and booming manufacturing output. On a positive note though have you people noticed that the highways in India (I am talking about south coz I dunno much about the other parts...others can provide their inputs) have improved by leaps and bounds. I mean even 5-6 years back we did not have such good highways. A lot of credit must go to both the NDA and UPA governments for building these highways
Posted
I have no qualms if we do make it although it might not be possible. If we were a small country like Singapore then I think we could have done that but given India's population, land mass, diversity, and all other such factors it is very difficult to become a developed nation without having stable and booming manufacturing output.
I agree but liberalizing Indias labour laws seems politically untouchable even when India went through the big crisis in the early 90s. Its a shame because It will take India a longer time to become a developed country because its alot easier for people working in agriculture to move into the industrial sector as apposed to services. Thats the main reason why China has been growing so much faster than India.
Posted

India should use this as an opportunity to develop our manufacturing industry and out-export China off the ****ing earth. China has artificially devalued its currency just for the sake of manufacturing. And here we are panicky panicking. Why can't we put the necessary infrastructure and technology in place to out-compete the Chinese ?

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