velu Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 @rg i am not saying that you shld invest in mid/ smallcaps .. put not more than 20% also i would suggest you to hedge it with gold .. you can check Goldbees , it trades like stock in a bull mkt gold wont increase much , but when inflation soars or mkts peaks out , big money will move back to gold its a good hedge for the portfolios.. one good thing you are doing is that you are not doing intraday .. in a bull mke investors wont lose any money.. many new guys wnated to make quick bucks will start equities and move to intraday quite soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
randomGuy Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 @rg i am not saying that you shld invest in mid/ smallcaps .. put not more than 20% Here i disagree yar...it all abt conviction levels and abt when one is buying/selling. dont even know if we are at the same page abt size of caps..yes bank is a mid cap for me for example, you may consider it large cap(?). Also I guess markets may correct significantly (after Q1 results) in August. I have started to book profits in some stocks and will book in some more (before when I think that the markets will correct) also i would suggest you to hedge it with gold .. you can check Goldbees , it trades like stock in a bull mkt gold wont increase much , but when inflation soars or mkts peaks out , big money will move back to gold its a good hedge for the portfolios.. nice advice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
velu Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 if any stock is in futures and options then it is tradable for me.. yesbank is midcap .. if some stocks daily traded value is less than 10 crores then dont touch it and also avoid stocks with small circuit values.. telling you again , never ever go for smallcaps based on balance sheets .. many can be fakes too 3 or 4 years back ndtv done a show and they visit some small listed companies .. there are many companies which opertaes in a single room :giggle: first listed company in my hometown was veena mills .. even after it was closed , stocks traded for 10 more years before getting delisted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
randomGuy Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 if any stock is in futures and options then it is tradable for me.. yesbank is midcap .. if some stocks daily traded value is less than 10 crores then dont touch it and also avoid stocks with small circuit values.. telling you again , never ever go for smallcaps based on balance sheets .. many can be fakes too 3 or 4 years back ndtv done a show and they visit some small listed companies .. there are many companies which opertaes in a single room :giggle: first listed company in my hometown was veena mills .. even after it was closed , stocks traded for 10 more years before getting delisted even the most famous bankrupt company kishfisher was rising...maybe same guy selling/buying from different demats.:giggle: the purpose of researching yourself is guarding against fraud(besides evaluating growth potential). there are companies with good corporate governance , companies where people go in and share the AGM experience, companies which are open to (small) investor's queries. Domain experts (doctors in case of ajanta) and people you trust vouching for the company n different other factors make it a good conviction case...then one goes ahead n buys. so all is not lost:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
randomGuy Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 For whatever its worth - Motilal Oswal has come up with a buy recommendation on HMVL today with target of 210 - http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/recommendations/buy-hindustan-media-targetrs-210-motilal-oswal_1133888.html (I increased my allocation @ 155.x today) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
velu Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 even the most famous bankrupt company kishfisher was rising...maybe same guy selling/buying from different demats.:giggle: the purpose of researching yourself is guarding against fraud(besides evaluating growth potential). there are companies with good corporate governance , companies where people go in and share the AGM experience, companies which are open to (small) investor's queries. Domain experts (doctors in case of ajanta) and people you trust vouching for the company n different other factors make it a good conviction case...then one goes ahead n buys. so all is not lost:) data we get is not reliable .. if companies like satyam can fool with 2000 crore rupees under the eyes of Big 4 audits then nothing can be trusted.. there was a stcok called HFCL - went from 50 rupees to 2000 rs with the same reports and balance sheets and came down to 15rs .. read abt K-10 stocks .. all got good balance sheets before crashing our companies and brokers are not accountable like the western mkts.. basically i lost faith in humanity and what brokers say :giggle: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Straight Drive Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 Balance sheets of many companies are fudged. Even Satyam which traded at CMP 200+ had fudged books, didn't they ? I would personally allocate lesser fund for Multibagger stocks. Better to go for them when they are valued under CMP 20 or CMP 10, so that the risk is not much. I have studied 2 multibaggers wrt analysis of business and SWOT. Usually mutlibaggers have huge debt ratio as well as very less cash flow. imo the entry for multibaggers has to be taken at very low CMP so as to minimize risk even if it gets delisted/broke (aka KFA) or to get benefits in case the stock multiplies 50 times.Even after all these conditions it is better to do analysis of the company. As Velu mentioned and something which you already maybe knowing , invest a very lesser proportion in risky scrips. Expecting the index to slide down enough and then shape up the portfolio. Meanwhile just doing analysis of target stocks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
randomGuy Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 data we get is not reliable .. if companies like satyam can fool with 2000 crore rupees under the eyes of Big 4 audits then nothing can be trusted.. there was a stcok called HFCL - went from 50 rupees to 2000 rs with the same reports and balance sheets and came down to 15rs .. read abt K-10 stocks .. all got good balance sheets before crashing our companies and brokers are not accountable like the western mkts.. basically i lost faith in humanity and what brokers say :giggle: bolded part seems to the case. ;) Even after researching a company in deep, one should try to divide his money in 8-10 companies and track them closely....with the best conviction case getting higher allocation. I allocated money in Atul Ltd(60 yrs old company) @890 (P/E abt 12 at that time), a chemical conglomerate and one of the flagship companies of Lalbhai Group(also owns Arvind Mills). Mcap ~ 2500Cr Debt - low Compounded Profits Growth - 10 Years: 53.75% 5 Years: 51.44% 3 Years: 25.00% TTM: 57.02% I bought even though the stock had double from 400 in 2 months. What gave me confidence was the fact tht promoters were still buying @900 from market and increasing the stake . Check here - http://www.moneycontrol.com/company-notices/atul/notices/A06#A06 that gives a hint that they are confident of delivering good numbers and confident of share price going higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
velu Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 above conclusion is quite novice .. i am giving a my generic view and not abt atul .. mallya incrased his share when KFA went to single digits , scenario is just opposite .. sasken technologies .. my first company ..whenever share price goes down they buy little or announce share buyback.. these stuffs are quite popular and masters by essar group dont take my feedback in a -ve way .. you do all the research but dont conclude anything .. if some sotck esp small or midcap goes up suddenly without any event other than broker recommendation , 99% chance that operator is behind it.. thought of replying it b4 abt your another startegy .. going with buyers and sellers ratio and all not reliable .. most of the orders are limit orders at very low levels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
randomGuy Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 above conclusion is quite novice .. i am giving a my generic view and not abt atul .. mallya incrased his share when KFA went to single digits , scenario is just opposite .. sasken technologies .. my first company ..whenever share price goes down they buy little or announce share buyback.. these stuffs are quite popular and masters by essar group dont take my feedback in a -ve way .. you do all the research but dont conclude anything .. if some sotck esp small or midcap goes up suddenly without any event other than broker recommendation , 99% chance that operator is behind it.. Main factor is that we are talking abt a reputed group operating from 60 yrs and showing consistent results. So when such a group buys at share price significantly higher than 2 months earlier, then thats not the sole reason to buy obviously but certainly a positive. I dont mind the feedback though I do not think thats a proper feedback with you comparing with KFA and sasken (struggling companies or companies buying at low levels) thought of replying it b4 abt your another startegy .. going with buyers and sellers ratio and all not reliable .. most of the orders are limit orders at very low levels Again, like Saurav, you seem to wrongly assume tht I am following this in isolation. That's just a hint and one of the thing to be looked into. Say there are 5 times more sellers than buyers, you see the stock is rising 5% or more. Chances are that it will correct. On election results day something similar happened, Oil Cos. like ONGC went up like 10% and within 2 mins they were down 10%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
velu Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 abt 1:- you have to find why the company has not risen before and suddenly now .. dont bother abt how old the company is.. subrata roy was running sahara for decades , but his sadsati started when he tried to list his company.. abt 2: you cant trust that buyer / seller ratio on normal cases .. when there is an event , then there will be a squeeze either on the lower side or on the higher side.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
randomGuy Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 abt 1:- you have to find why the company has not risen before and suddenly now .. dont bother abt how old the company is.. subrata roy was running sahara for decades , but his sadsati started when he tried to list his company.. u r basically saying research well before buying.. ya i could not find any promoter issues or other deterrents... abt 2: you cant trust that buyer / seller ratio on normal cases .. when there is an event , then there will be a squeeze either on the lower side or on the higher side.. I'd say if you doing intraday trade(which i dont), you must look into the ratio.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
velu Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 u r basically saying research well before buying.. ya i could not find any promoter issues or other deterrents... I'd say if you doing intraday trade(which i dont), you must look into the ratio.. do research .. but IMHO dont trust the balance sheets of chitti companies .. even big 4 audit firms can be fooled imagine the chitti companies.. even auditors can be part of the scam .. we are in india :giggle: have you watched the latests movie wolf of wall st or the boiler room ?? trust me ours is worse than that.. even big companies can present their results in a different way to make it look good .. BUT doing research and playing is better than not doing research and playing. Also picking the right sector is also good. RJ did both the things properly , but even he was caught on the wrong foot in 2008. and ratio is not reliable .. when i use to do trading ( in f&o ) , i always put a AMO order or until i cancel order to catch the spike ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
randomGuy Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 and ratio is not reliable .. when i use to do trading ( in f&o ) , i always put a AMO order or until i cancel order to catch the spike ... its one of the useful things to be looked into yar. let me try again - suppose i wanna buy yes bank, say the stock has not moved from yesterday's close price. I check the seller:buyer ratio at that point, which is say 3. I check it for icici, axis and hdfc bank and the ratio are 3,4,2 resp....I decide that it may not be a good day for banking stocks, yes bank could fall a bit and decide to buy later in the day based on this, say after it has fallen 2% or so...thats a smart choice. ofcourse its not the sole thing....I had mindtree which had appreciated decently in last month and i decided to sell it today (@20% profit). it was 2% up today, sold it at 918 when seller:buyer ratio was 2.5 . Price came down to 912 in 5 mins. thought i had made good choice for the day. Checked 30 mins later n guess what - it had gone upto 995. seller:buyer ratio=0.5 now . some fund or HNI may have bought into it. so i wasnt that smart afterall. :D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Straight Drive Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 Nifty crossed 7800 just now. Rally is still going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
randomGuy Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 I bought even though the stock had double from 400 in 2 months. What gave me confidence was the fact tht promoters were still buying @900 from market and increasing the stake . Check here - http://www.moneycontrol.com/company-notices/atul/notices/A06#A06 that gives a hint that they are confident of delivering good numbers and confident of share price going higher. Atul's Q1 results are out today. Profits up ~50% from YoY. Stock up 8% at the moment. Think I will sell today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Straight Drive Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 Atul's Q1 results are out today. Profits up ~50% from YoY. Stock up 8% at the moment. Think I will sell today. Well traded :two_thumbs_up: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
randomGuy Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 Well traded :two_thumbs_up: sold off at 8% up today. went upto 14% and ended at 12.8% up Another stock that can be played for results is Aurobindo Pharma which are on 7th Aug. cheers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
randomGuy Posted July 24, 2014 Share Posted July 24, 2014 thats what I kind of said, dividing into sectors - IT, pharma, or high beta ones - banks, NBFC, realty, cement My assumption is there are some tricks that an experienced trader might know that I cant think of . For ex. I was thinking abt it now - shorting on ex-dividend date could be looked into, esp. for companies which give good dividend. Today is Ex-dividend date of JK Bank , div. of 50/- which is arnd 3% so the stock went down (3%) just after opening (now recovering a bit). would have been a good idea to short sell it in pre-open. If members know of more such tricks, do share. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
randomGuy Posted July 24, 2014 Share Posted July 24, 2014 Suggested Ajanta Pharma on Saturday @1470. It is 10% up @1617 atm. Suggested Atul Ltd couple of days back. Up about 22-25% is just 2 days. Thanks to Mr. Market to treat these recommendations favorably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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