The Narendra Modi thread

[seedhi]

Gujarat poll vote projection: Modi lords over the state, Cong too far behind New Delhi: For more than a decade, politics in Gujarat has been synonymous with Narendra Modi. With the Assembly elections due in a few weeks, the scenario seems to no different. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) strongman, who has ruled Gujarat with an iron hand since October 2001, has swatted all opposition with such ruthlessness that today there is no virtually no leader in the state capable of challenging him. Modi has steamrolled the opposition, which is primarily the Congress, to win two back-to-back Assembly elections and 2012 looks no different. According to a pre-poll survey conducted by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) for CNN-IBN, Modi-led BJP is once again set to decimate the Congress and romp home with a thumping majority. The survey interviewed 3658 voters in Gujarat and found that almost 50 per cent of them were in favour of the BJP, while the Congress was way behind with just 36 per cent. In the 2007 Assembly election, the BJP won 117 seats in the 182-member Assembly with a vote share of 49 per cent, which is likely to see a one percentage point gain in the 2012 poll. The Congress, on the other hand, has slipped two percentage points and will get only 36 per cent of the votes compared to 38 in the 2007 elections. The Gujarat Parivartan Party of Keshubhai Patel, a former BJP leader and Gujarat chief minister, is set to get a paltry three per cent of votes. Keshubhai Patel's party did not exist during the 2007 election. Other smaller parties will grab the remaining 11 per cent, down from 13 per cent five years ago. In a two-cornered contest, a difference of 14 per cent in vote shares means that the race has been decided even before it started. And in Gujarat it is Modi all the way despite the conviction and sentencing of one of his former ministers in a 2002 riots case and the arrest of another in a fake encounter case. The survey reveals that even though his close aides are feeling the heat of the law-enforcing agencies and the judiciary, Modi has consolidated his position as the Numero Uno in the state while the Congress has slipped, failing to counter an increasingly aggressive Gujarat chief minister. Modi is helped in his mission to score a hat-trick of victories by the strong pro-incumbency sentiment, which is even greater than it was five years ago. The CSDS survey shows that 52 per cent of the voters are in favour of giving the BJP another chance to form the government, up from 48 during the 2007 poll. Modi's personal popularity is also intact with nearly half the respondents - 49 per cent - backing him for the Chief Minister's post. None of his rivals is even in the double digits when it comes to the chief ministership stakes. In fact, the one big message from the survey is that Modi's popularity is at an all-time high. In 2002 when Modi helped BJP back to power in the backdrop of state-wide riots, only 37 per cent of the voters wanted him as the chief minister. But since then - barring 2004, when his popularity fell to 31 per cent - he has consolidated his position; in 2012, there is no leader who comes anywhere close to him. A major factor behind Modi's rising graph is that the state under his stewardship has made rapid economic progress, and all the economic indicators are healthy. A majority of the voters credit the BJP for Gujarat's development, and even most non-BJP and non-Congress voters believe that Modi's rule has been development-oriented. The only blemish in his track record is that the condition of farmers and employment generation has been rated negatively by those surveyed. Meanwhile, in a double whammy for the Congress, most Gujarat voters blame the Congress-led UPA government and not ModiÃÔ regime for rising prices. On the issue of corruption, both the UPA and the state government are viewed as being guilty, but here too the Centre is the bigger villain. The satisfaction with Modi's performance as the chief minister is also higher than the satisfaction with Manmohan Singh's performance as the prime minister. Sure, Modi fails to score higher than Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, Madhya Pradesh's Shivraj Singh Chauhan, Raman Singh of Chhattisgarh and Odisha's Naveen Patnaik when it comes to the state governments' performance satisfaction. But still, his following is so huge that even though 43 per cent of the voters give a thumbs down to his style of speaking and campaigning, claiming that these are not consistent with Gujarat's culture, a huge majority of 67 per cent believe that the stateÃÔ honour and prestige has increased because of him. The 2002 riots, which are still used by his opponents to target Modi, too, are no longer a major issue for most of the electorate. The majority among both Hindus and Muslims want to forget the 2002 riots. The desire to see riots' guilty punished is much less today than it was 10 years ago, both among Hindus and Muslims. While in 2002, 85 per cent of the Hindus wanted those found guilty of 2002 riots punished, the number has plummeted to dropped in 2012. What is more striking is that only 51 per cent of the Muslims now want the riot-guilty to be punished, down from 95 in 2002. But one disturbing finding of the survey is that both Hindus and Muslims are not as optimistic about communal peace as they were five years ago, with a smaller 55 per cent believing that 2002 type riots can never happen again, compared to 69 per cent Hindus and 80 per cent Muslims in 2007. A majority of those surveyed also want Modi to apologise for the 2002 riots. A look at the regional patterns shows that the BJP is well ahead of the Congress in all the regions of the state. In Saurashtra and Kutch (Kutch, Surendranagar, Rajkot, Jamnagar, Porbandar, Amreli, Junagadh and Bhavnagar districts) which account for 54 seats, the party is ahead of the Congress while Keshubhai's party is influential in only some seats. North Gujarat (53 seats in the districts of Banaskantha, Patan, Mehsana, Sabarkantha, Gandhinagar and Ahmedabad) and South Gujarat (35 seats in the districts of Narmada, Bharuch, Surat, Dangs, Navsari and Valsad) are firmly in BJP's grasp and the Congress is able to challenge the party only in Central Gujarat that has 40 seats in Kheda, Ananad, Panchmahals, Dahod and Vadodara districts. But in Central Gujarat, too, the BJP is ahead of the Congress. So while the results of the two-phase election will be known only on December 20, the Modi engine is powering ahead the BJP even as the Congress desperately tries to play catch up. http://ibnlive.in.com/news/gujarat-poll-vote-projection-narendra-modi-lords-over-the-state-cong-too-far-behind/303081-3.html

[seedhi]

If Modi manages to win in Gujarat with a decent margin (which seems likely from the pre-poll surveys), it is almost certain to make him the PM candidate for the BJP. If he is not made the PM candidate, then BJP will be digging its own grave.

[Sachin=GOD]

^Modi is most certainly going to win Gujarat. Now as for "Modi for PM" - I have a very simple answer as to why I don't think it would work : Politics is a game of numbers and in India a party/coalition needs 272 to form the Govt which cannot happen for the NDA if Modi is the PM candidate because some of the major allies won't join a coalition led by Modi. He may be the best possible leader that the BJP can have and he may even be completely innocent in case of the Gujarat riots (something which I don't believe in really) but still if the allies don't support NDA led by him then he cannot be the PM.

[seedhi]

^Modi is most certainly going to win Gujarat. Now as for "Modi for PM" - I have a very simple answer as to why I don't think it would work : Politics is a game of numbers and in India a party/coalition needs 272 to form the Govt which cannot happen for the NDA if Modi is the PM candidate because some of the major allies won't join a coalition led by Modi. He may be the best possible leader that the BJP can have and he may even be completely innocent in case of the Gujarat riots (something which I don't believe in really) but still if the allies don't support NDA led by him then he cannot be the PM.

In the current scenario, the only way BJP is going to part of the government is if it can win close to 200 seats, and that is impossible unless Modi is the PM candidate. I am not saying that he will do it for the BJP, but at least he creates a possibility. Any other leader may, at best, manage 140 or so seats. To touch/cross 200 seats BJP needs Modi. Once BJP gets 200 or so seats, the potential allies will align (by the law of political gravitation!).

[Sachin=GOD]

In the current scenario' date=' the only way BJP is going to part of the government is if it can win close to 200 seats, and that is impossible unless Modi is the PM candidate. I am not saying that he will do it for the BJP, but at least he creates a possibility. Any other leader may, at best, manage 140 or so seats. To touch/cross 200 seats BJP needs Modi. Once BJP gets 200 or so seats, the potential allies will align (by the law of political gravitation!).[/quote'] Modi has been a proven failure in UP and Maharashtra - in both these states he campaigned extensively but BJP didn't perform well (in fact it performed very poorly in UP). Nitsh Kumar won't let him campaign in Bihar - so thats a total of 80+48+40 = 168 seats where he won't be effective. Nitish Kumar will definitely leave the NDA before the elections if Modi is the PM candidate and that will be a massive blow because not only will JDU's 18-20 seats go but also BJP will lose a few seats in Bihar while Lalu/Paswan/Cong will gain. In UP there will be a lot of polarization of Muslim votes resulting in gains for SP and to some extent Congress. In Maharashra I think the combo of Modi+Bal Thackrey might be a bit too hardliner for the people to stomach so IMO they won't get many votes despite the disastrous performance by the Cong/NCP Govt. Now lets look at some potential allies: Mamta Bannerjee - do you honestly think that such a volatile and unpredictable, confused and insecure leader like Mamta will work with a Govt led by Modi? Same is the case with Mayawati, although the threat of CBI ay persuade her but if Modi is the PM candidate, BSP would anyways lose seats to SP and Cong.

[Alchemist]

India needs a Modi. Tired of Green brigade !!!

[The Outsider]

India needs a Modi. Tired of Green brigade !!!

I still care about my neighbors who happen to be Muslims.

[Sachin=GOD]

Five questions that haunt Narendra Modi

AHMEDABAD: Poll pundits and pollsters are predicting a clean sweep for chief minister Narendra Modi in the December assembly elections. Yet, it is the complacency among cadres and the silence of his rivals that is unnerving Modi. Harit Mehta raises a few questions that are clearly weighing on the mind of the 'Vote ka Saudagar'. 1. Will people march out to vote if Modi's victory is taken for granted? Complacency kills At least two reputed poll surveys have given the BJP a sweeping majority, triggering silent celebrations within the party. But, a few are discussing the fine-print of these polls. One is the popularity of Keshubhai Patel, which has more than doubled as compared to 2007. Besides, fewer people feel that the situation is tough for Modi today than it was in 2007, when his supporters had voluntarily poured out to 'save' the CM who said he was being "targeted by enemies of Gujarat". 2. Are party workers over-reliant on Modi and not putting in much effort? One-man army "Narendrabhai will pull a trick out of his hat at the last minute," is a common buzz among BJP cadres who are convinced Modi is still hiding a trump card. Those who have seen BJP grow from strength to strength in Gujarat say never before have workers been so confident of victory. A cadre-driven party, foot-soldiers have been BJP's real strength as they bridge the divide between voters and polling stations. 3. Does the no-attack policy of Congress blunt Modi? No loose balls at Modi Unlike elections in 2002 and 2007, this time around Modi is fighting a poll devoid of any emotive issue. Riots and the 'Maut ka Saudagar' comment on fake encounters had fired up the previous two elections. This time around, no senior Congress leader has reacted to Modi's repeated provocative comments against Sonia Gandhi, Robert Vadra, Shashi Tharoor and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, who he refers to as 'Maunmohan Singh. The Congress is not getting into a debate Modi is so keen on. "He is waiting for one loose ball to hit a six. But, it is not coming," said a senior BJP leader. 4. If the voters don't like Congress, is Keshubhai's GPP a viable option? Love and hate triangle For the first time after 1995, when BJP came to power on its own, the Congress is showing resolve. Congress workers are putting up a united front, innovating on the go with their campaign. They are at their aggressive best. Keshubhai's Gujarat Parivartan Party is another factor senior BJP leaders are wary of with the grand old man poised to become a rallying point for all anti-Modi forces in the Sangh Parivar. This is the first election in which Modi has a triangular battle on hand, with a clear third force which threatens to eat into the BJP vote-bank, even if his cronies believe this is 'a one-sided fight'. 5. Is there a gap between the hype around Modi's claims and the real Gujarat? Gujarat shining? The run-up to this assembly polls has some similarities with two of the biggest upsets in Indian politics in a single year. One, the 'India Shining' campaign by Atal Behari Vajpayee-led BJP and Andhra Pradesh chief minister N Chandra Babu Naidu's loss in 2004 despite him having the image of the state's development-oriented CEO. Both campaigns painted a picture which wasn't true on the ground.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Maun-ke-saudagar-Five-questions-that-haunt-Narendra-Modi/articleshow/17044074.cms Some relevant points being raised. Although Modi definitely looks like he is miles ahead of the Congress in Gujarat, there does seem to be some amount of complacency because the aura of invincibility around Modi has increased in the last few months. Also it certainly seems as if the Congress leadership has instructed all state leaders not to provoke Modi in any way.

[Precambrian]

Give Modi a ****ing chance!!

[asterix]

Never been so much focus on any other chief minister.. Nobody cares to ask "5 questions" to other CMs..

[1983-2011]

Never been so much focus on any other chief minister.. Nobody cares to ask "5 questions" to other CMs..

because he's been touted as the BJP's PM candidate and also labelled as the best CM in the country so he's bound to get questions, not 5 but more than 50

[Kejriwal4PM]

Why dont I prefer Modi? Because his development is over-hyped and not enough to compensate for his rioting Lets have a factual debate on this: Why dont I prefer Modi? Part 1: Development hype Why dont I prefer Modi? Part 2: Facts about his riots, murders and corruption

If you are not a fan of Modi to start with, please spread these facts widely. His marketing of his development hype has been allowed to go on for far too long without a challenge. (please find FB and twitter share buttons, and shortlinks at the bottom of that blog post) Disclaimer to Modi fans: This is not to put down Gujarat or to glorify other states. It is merely to expose Modi's marketing machinery that has been hyping him by planting economic figures that are either false or half-true. I want to prove that Modi is only as good as CMs of many other fast developing states of India. So, Part-1 is aimed at that those who are willing to forgive him for his complicity in riots, thinking that his handling of economy and administration is so great as to compensate for his other shortcomings. Well, it is not as you will see. And Part-2 points out established facts (not the usual rumors and such) of Modi and his govt's complicity in corruption, riots and murders.

Please read the blog before arguing factually, and please dont post anything silly without reading it. The blog is not too long anyways. Also dont merely come up with a list of projects or figures of specific sectors as counter arguments. When every state in India is developing, one would obviously come up with such lists for most states. The GDP growth figures quoted in that blog encompasses all goods and services of all sectors, and is a better aggregate indicator of the economy. In any case, it is the same GDP figures that have been quoted by Modi's PR machinery, albeit with a twist as you will see in the first part of the blog. And BTW, I am not pro-congress. I would be equally happy to see Sonia in jail for her misdeeds as much as anyone else.

[ravishingravi]

^Factual debate :hysterical:

[Precambrian]

Dude Kejriwal4Pm, there is a reason why Modi's approval ratings are at an all time high... if you're saying he's managed to hoodwink an entire state for close to two decades by half truths and marketing, and actually kept them happy, well probably then we all need such a PM.

[Kejriwal4PM]

Dude Kejriwal4Pm' date=' there is a reason why Modi's approval ratings are at an all time high... if you're saying he's managed to hoodwink an entire state for close to two decades by half truths and marketing, and actually kept them happy, well probably then we all need such a PM.[/quote'] His approval within his own party and RSS is far from a high, leave alone the nation :D (not to mention that his vote share in gujarat in 2009 was less than in 2004, inspite of Modi becoming the face of BJP in 2009 more than 2004 there) There were more negative votes against him than positive votes in TIME magazine's online survey (get the Time link in my blog) Anyway, what factual argument do you have to offer for the GDP rate and literacy rate and HDI etc figures in the blog? So you concede there is nothing that you can offer in support of Modi and against the figures in that blog, other than this? :D

[Precambrian]

By this table' date=' Modi’s Gujarat once again comes out with highest growth rate, but as was pointed out earlier (and as this table also shows) Gujarat was fastest growing state even before Modi took over. Now, when we once again compare how much growth he has added (last column) over preceding governments of Gujarat, he still doesnt come out shining the way Modi’s marketing agencies would like us to believe. A typical reaction from the Modi brigade is to point out to the two tables above and say – “see! statistics cant be trusted at all, and so, all hail Modi!”. To them, I say: Of course statistics gives an undeniable fact. In the case of two tables, the undeniable facts are that, Modi’s growth rate slips down if you dont include the first two years of his rule, and raises only when you do. This is a fact. But how these facts are interpreted is left to individuals.[/quote'] LMAO, Why should you not include Modi's 1st two years of growth? You speak stats and you conveniently talk about omitting 2 years as if its not relevant?

[Kejriwal4PM]

LMAO' date=' Why should you not include Modi's 1st two years of growth? You speak stats and you conveniently talk about omitting 2 years as if its not relevant?[/quote'] Who said I omitted?! I have clearly given an entire table for all years (including his first 2 years), didnt I? :) Once again, please come up with smart factual arguments, and there is always an option to remain silent if there is none instead of posting something silly. cheers! :winky:

[Precambrian]

His approval within his own party and RSS is far from a high' date=' leave alone the nation :D (not to mention that his vote share in gujarat in 2009 was less than in 2004, inspite of Modi becoming the face of BJP in 2009 more than 2004 there) There were more negative votes against him than positive votes in TIME magazine's online survey (get the Time link in my blog)[/quote'] And that has again gone up.. have a look at this: http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/india-today-group-org-opinion-poll-reveals-gujarat-chief-minister-narendra-modi-landslide-victory-in-coming-assembly-elections/1/226375.html I've just reached the GDP part and I couldn't help but laugh at seeing the cheekiness with which you've manipulated your conclusions. firstly in the comparison, Bihar, by virtue of being having a much lesser GDP base, is to be excluded, and that is something you've agreed in the blog as well. That leaves TN and Maharastra. Now let me point out some issues I've with your selection of period and data, 1. Firstly you've got the years you averaged up wrong. Modi took charge in 2001 FYI, and hence an analysis of his performance should start with the year ending 2002, and not 2005 or 2003. 2. Now, if I take the avgs from the correct period, Modi's Gujarat has a growth rate of 10.19 over 10 years. The comparitive figure for TN and Mah are 7.90 and 9.41 respectively. So your first argument is invalid. 3. Now comes the interesting and wierd part. You're trying to also show that the incremental growth rate added on by Modi (LMAO, that in itself is stupid, as there is issue of a lower base that will aid the growth rates in the initial stages, but let's forget that for the time being}, you've selected with data from YE 1995. What's the basis in comparing a 7 yr period with a 10 yr period? Why not 6? Why not 8? A close inspection at the data reveals the obvious answer.YE 95, Gujarat recorded a growth rate of 18, which is a big extreme considering the following years growth rates. Ignore that year, and the pre-Modi avg growth rate is as follows: 1996-2001 = Guj 4.19, Mah 5.52, TN 5.55 Incremental growth topped up : Guj : 6, TN : 2.35 and Mah 3.89... Even if you figure in the skewed numbers of 1995, the incremental numbers are : Guj : 4.02, TN : 1.34 and Mah : 4.31.. i.e he is right up there with the best performing states, is that supposed to be a negative?

[Precambrian]

Who said one shouldn't?! I have clearly given an entire table for all years too (including his 1st 2 years)' date=' didnt I? :) Once again, please come up with smart factual arguments, and there is always an option to remain silent if there is none instead of posting something silly. cheers! :winky:[/quote'] Wasn't this your quote then? :cantstop:

[Precambrian]

Now regarding poverty part, You say that Maharastra has done a significantly better job in reducing poverty, but when I look at the raw data, Gujarat has a BPL % of 23% vs MH's 24.5%. And regarding TN having just 17% under poverty line, I suggest you look up what constitues as poor in the same table: Gujarat - Rural 729.5 and Urban 951.4 TN - Rural 639 and 800 In effect, there is a difference of 14% and 18% difference in the baseline itself...