seedhi Posted July 19, 2013 Posted July 19, 2013 2009 was a completely different scenario - the level of frustration with the government is on a completely different scale today.Are you kidding me ? The BJP under Advani even failed to win a single seat in Mumbai only months after 26/11. The BJP under Advani or Sushma or Jaitley is more or less the same as the Congress (at least to voters). Why would anyone vote for Advani over Manmohan Singh or Sushma or Jaitley. Even the pro-BJP voters would not vote for any of them. Well, if you read most experienced political analysts they are making essentially the same point - it was BJP's election to lose and with Modi's elevation they have likely lost it.These were the same analysts who had predicted Vajpayee's victory in 2004. And yet, Is Congress falling in Modi’s trap? By taking Narendra Modi head on, the Congress seems to believe that it was not only exposing the controversial Gujarat Chief Minister but was simultaneously also consolidating its own position among the minorities in particular. Somehow, it appears to me that Modi wants Congress to precisely react in this manner. His politics has essentially been divisive and his supporters are of the view that the process of polarization of voters has begun especially on seeing the Congress reaction. What has started happening is that instead of being pro active in setting the political agenda for the country, the Grand Old Party is in the reactive mode and is by default allowing Modi to occupy the talking space. It is understandable that many would feel that Modi has peaked very early and may find it difficult to sustain his campaign. But that is perhaps not what the BJP’s Chief of the Campaign Committee is thinking. He in fact wants to catch the attention of the people even in areas where the BJP has negligible presence. The Congress by its strong rebuttals and reactions is precisely helping him do that. Modi has been telling his supporters that the next elections will see the BJP cross the 200 mark and the party could even reach over 225 seats. This sounds unbelievable given that the BJP normally contests only 290 to 300 seats and to have a success rate, which is so high, appears impossible. He has also been telling his colleagues that it will not be the BJP that will fight the next polls but it will be “Modi’’ who will be the candidate on each of the seats the Saffron brigade contests. Much to the discomfort of many in his own party, Modi is raking up the Hindutva agenda and naturally the RSS seems very happy with it. In the RSS, there has always been a powerful lobby that wants the BJP to be strong and feels that only a strong BJP could attract allies. This is contrary to what L.K.Advani and his types believe in. They want to carry every one with them and are of the opinion that a moderate image is the key to success. But Modi is aiming to make the Hindutva as the mainstay of the party’s agenda with the hope that the Congress would pitch in for the minorities and thus bear the political consequences. The entire Modi campaign so far has led to certain conclusions on the basis of various interpretations by political leaders regarding his comments. He is a seasoned campaigner and is thus using phrases and words that are provocative but are within permissible legal limits. It is the interpretations, which are irritating his opponents. But the Gujarat CM and his party do not seem to care. The frontal attack on him by both the Congress chief spokesperson Ajay Maken and Information and Broadcasting Minister Manish Tewari may have pleased some in their party and the political class. But these comments have also helped Modi’s cause and allowed him to be the person who is setting the agenda. The Congress was always a secular party and does not need to reiterate its commitment to secularism. But by overdoing things, it is reinforcing the impression that it had tilted from its neutral position towards the minorities. And in case it goes ahead and grants statehood to Telangana ignoring security considerations of the country, the party’s standing may further suffer a setback in the rest of the country and thus help Modi and the BJP by default. Modi has arrived on the Centre stage and the Congress is obviously allowing him to assume a bigger image by reacting to the interpretations of some of his comments and statements. Instead it should put forward its own achievements and plans. Otherwise, Modi is having the last laugh, the debate of secularism vs Communalism not withstanding. http://blogs.hindustantimes.com/capital-closeup/2013/07/18/is-congress-falling-in-modi%E2%80%99s-trap
seedhi Posted July 19, 2013 Posted July 19, 2013 this time all major regional parties had sensed that with such extreme levels of blatant corruption/inflation/crime etc' date=' Congress's chances were pretty bad so they could have joined NDA but then Modi became the leader and suddenly that changed all the equations to such an extent that the existing NDA itself was broken with JDU leaving and there's no chance of any major party joining before the elections.[/quote']There was corruption and misgovernance even in 2004-2009. After all India had a string of huge terrorist attacks in 2006-2008. Even in cities like Mumbai and Delhi which had been targets of terrorism, the BJP/NDA failed to win even a single seat in 2009.
Crookbond Posted July 19, 2013 Posted July 19, 2013 The season of scams started post 2009 and has peaked ever since. Before the 2009 elections the only major points of contention was 26/11 and nuclear deal.
adi B Posted July 19, 2013 Posted July 19, 2013 Quite frankly' date=' what the Congress is trying to do at the national level is exactly what they have done in Gujarat - and Narendra Modi emerged more and more strong out of it.[/quote'] this is corollary statement.. results in national politics differs vastly from state politics.. only time will tell if he emerges out strongly ,its his 1st time
The Outsider Posted July 19, 2013 Posted July 19, 2013 Terrorism? With what face could BJP have attacked the Congress on terrorism in 2009 when they were equally or even more inept? What has happened between 2009-2014 is that corruption scandals have reached levels never seen before and are a very strong talking point among people ever since the Bofors scandal, which BTW was the single biggest factor in Congress losing power in '89.
Sachin=GOD Posted July 19, 2013 Posted July 19, 2013 Quite frankly' date=' what the Congress is trying to do at the national level is exactly what they have done in Gujarat - and Narendra Modi emerged more and more strong out of it.[/quote'] there is an enormous difference between elections in one state (Gujarat) and the General Elections. In Gujarat, BJP is stronger than Cong and has better presence across the state. In India BJP is not even present in many of the biggest states, while in many others there are strong regional parties. Also, in many states there are extremely complex caste/religion based equations which Modi does not understand. Modi may be a good administrator (although I don't agree about that) but he has 0 experience of running a National Campaign and is making mistakes which are being magnified because of his hyper-active Bhakts and because of the fact that he is trying to make this election only about himself and is pushing the experienced leaders (who could actually help and tell him how to avoid many such mistake) to the sideline. As that article by Shekhar Gupta said - Cong wants this election to be as far away from the real issues as possible, and till now Modi has been doing exactly that by making foolish comments.
adi B Posted July 19, 2013 Posted July 19, 2013 The season of scams started post 2009 and has peaked ever since. Before the 2009 elections the only major points of contention was 26/11 and nuclear deal. true,anti incumbency factor is too strong this time compared to last time
asterix Posted July 19, 2013 Posted July 19, 2013 The losses of BJP is not because of 'lack of leaders' as being peddled by Modi supporters (just to prepare the ground for future, if Modi loses, all they've to say that there were no other leaders), it's because of the so called 'party cadre' being dishonest, stupid, and foremost, indiscipline... You'll not hear these stupid logic about 'party cadre' in other parties, big or small... They all work together to help party win. But the problem with BJP is that it's cadre base is divided into RSS, VHP, Bajrang Dal etc. components and all of them have different levels of agendas... Mind you, RSS itself was in recent past working against NaMo in Gujarat till the last elections... To think that if people have voted for BJP in Gujarat for 3 times, hence automatically NaMo will win all over India is a stupid notion... Come next elections, everything will be clear... The only thing will remain is that NaMo and his fans will keep on clutching that proverbial straw of 'there was no other competent leader anyway'....
Sachin=GOD Posted July 19, 2013 Posted July 19, 2013 There was corruption and misgovernance even in 2004-2009. After all India had a string of huge terrorist attacks in 2006-2008. Even in cities like Mumbai and Delhi which had been targets of terrorism' date= the BJP/NDA failed to win even a single seat in 2009. just one question - do you agree that the level of corruption and misgovernance between 2009-2013 has been far, far more than what happened between 04-09 ?
seedhi Posted July 19, 2013 Posted July 19, 2013 All the recent surveys show that BJP will increase its vote share substantially with Modi at the helm.
asterix Posted July 19, 2013 Posted July 19, 2013 Never seen a more stupid Cadre which 'decided to become disillusioned' when victory is/was almost certain... How stupid one can be?
The Outsider Posted July 19, 2013 Posted July 19, 2013 Come next elections, everything will be clear... The only thing will remain is that NaMo and his fans will keep on clutching that proverbial straw of 'there was no other competent leader anyway'.... Let me tell you, they will be celebrating because according to them BJP would not even cross 100 under Advani or because they would get more seats than last time.
seedhi Posted July 19, 2013 Posted July 19, 2013 Terrorism? With what face could BJP have attacked the Congress on terrorism in 2009 when they were equally or even more inept? What has happened between 2009-2014 is that corruption scandals have reached levels never seen before and are a very strong talking point among people ever since the Bofors scandal, which BTW was the single biggest factor in Congress losing power in '89.The reason why BJP could not take on Congress in 2009 because of the weak leader Advani who was the face of Kandahar, Parliament attack etc. The BJP needs a credible face - Advani is way past his sell by date, and the rest apart from Modi are lightweights who wouldn't even be able to win a parliament seat on their own.
Sachin=GOD Posted July 19, 2013 Posted July 19, 2013 All the recent surveys show that BJP will increase its vote share substantially with Modi at the helm. are you talking about the same surveys by the same news agencies that have been wrong/off the mark 70-80% of the time?
The Outsider Posted July 19, 2013 Posted July 19, 2013 All the recent surveys show that BJP will increase its vote share substantially with Modi at the helm. Which means nothing because with Modi at the helm, BJP stands to lose at least 50 seats of potential allies. Is the vote increase substantial enough to offset that loss? No way.
Crookbond Posted July 19, 2013 Posted July 19, 2013 true' date='anti incumbency factor is too strong this time compared to last time[/quote'] Therefore, Advani failed in 2009 and hence will fail in 2014 is a fallacy. These 5 years are poles apart in terms of the situation.
Sachin=GOD Posted July 19, 2013 Posted July 19, 2013 The reason why BJP could not take on Congress in 2009 because of the weak leader Advani who was the face of Kandahar' date= Parliament attack etc. The BJP needs a credible face - Advani is way past his sell by date, and the rest apart from Modi are lightweights who wouldn't even be able to win a parliament seat on their own. BJP's negative campaign was the biggest reason for 2009 loss. Oh we'll see about that in a few months....he is by no means done with politics. Rest may be lightweights but they have the ability to attract allies (unlike Modi who makes even the present allies run away) and that is what BJP needs the most.
The Outsider Posted July 19, 2013 Posted July 19, 2013 The reason why BJP could not take on Congress in 2009 because of the weak leader Advani who was the face of Kandahar' date=' Parliament attack etc. The BJP needs a credible face - Advani is way past his sell by date, and the rest apart from Modi are lightweights [b']who wouldn't even be able to win a parliament seat on their own. Sushma Swaraj has an impeccable record in Lok Sabha elections - she even ran Sonia Gandhi close on a one month notice.
seedhi Posted July 19, 2013 Posted July 19, 2013 Therefore' date=' Advani failed in 2009 and hence will fail in 2014 is a fallacy. These 5 years are poles apart in terms of the situation.[/quote']The man is not even a popular man in the party and you expect him to win an election for the party. Can any general who doesn't have the support of his own army lead it to victory ?
Sachin=GOD Posted July 19, 2013 Posted July 19, 2013 The man is not even a popular man in the party and you expect him to win an election for the party. Can any general who doesn't have the support of his own army lead it to victory ? only the Modi supporting workers don't want him. Others in the party (especially many of the senior leaders) believe that he is still very much in the race for PM. Also, irrespective of what Modi thinks, BJP needs Advani's experience and his acceptability among the allies.
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