The Narendra Modi thread

[Crookbond]

I am not extrapolating. I am saying that this metric is flawed. By this metric every leader of the BJP is a failure' date=' because of the dismal failure of the party in 2009.[b'] The right way of interpreting the 2009 is that Advani was a failure as a PM candidate. Coupled with the fact that he is not even popular in his party today, his is totally ruled out as the 2014 candidate.

And I'm trying to tell you that you can't have a hard metric like you have defined. You can not couple 2009 with 2014 because these are different situations. The only valid point you have is "popularity" and that is subjective.

[The Outsider]

Irrespective of that, its pretty clear that Rahul will have the remote control even if he doesn't become the PM so he is the leader. most certainly.

Remote control will be there in both cases - Gandhis for Congress and RSS for BJP. This was clearly evidenced by the role RSS played in the recent Advani-Modi saga, and Rajnath Singh went on record to state that the misunderstanding was cleared by RSS.

[seedhi]

And I'm trying to tell you that you can't have a hard metric like you have defined. You can not couple 2009 with 2014 because these are different situations. The only valid point you have is "popularity" and that is subjective.

Not even Advani's supporters say that he is the most popular leader within the BJP. And I think you are underestimating the extent of the dismal performance of Advani-led BJP in 2009. Advani completely lost the urban vote for the BJP. On the other hand, by all accounts Modis is very popular in urban areas compared to other BJP leaders.

[seedhi]

Remote control will be there in both cases - Gandhis for Congress and RSS for BJP. This was clearly evidenced by the role RSS played in the recent Advani-Modi saga' date=' and Rajnath Singh went on record to state that the misunderstanding was cleared by RSS.[/quote']If RSS had its way it would have had Modi removed from Gujarat long time ago. In fact Modi has made RSS (some of whose men along with VHP campaigned for Keshubhai as well as Congress) irrelevant to his electoral success in Gujarat.

[Sachin=GOD]

Remote control will be there in both cases - Gandhis for Congress and RSS for BJP. This was clearly evidenced by the role RSS played in the recent Advani-Modi saga' date=' and Rajnath Singh went on record to state that the misunderstanding was cleared by RSS.[/quote'] yeah, but in case of the BJP it won't completely go by everything the RSS says in case it forms the Govt but in case of the Cong we have seen the MMS has done literally nothing without approval form 10 Janpath.

[Crookbond]

Not even Advani's supporters say that he is the most popular leader within the BJP. And I think you are underestimating the extent of the dismal performance of Advani-led BJP in 2009. Advani completely lost the urban vote for the BJP. On the other hand' date=' by all accounts Modis is very popular in urban areas compared to other BJP leaders.[/quote'] Once again the same thing - Modi is popular in 2014, Advani lost in 2009. It makes no sense to compare between 2009 and 2014 as these 5 years have had multiple events which has titled favor of votes towards the BJP.

[The Outsider]

If RSS had its way it would have had Modi removed from Gujarat long time ago. In fact Modi has made RSS (some of whose men along with VHP campaigned for Keshubhai as well as Congress) irrelevant to his electoral success in Gujarat.

India is much bigger than Gujarat. You are trying to project so many arguments as "such and such happened in Gujarat so we can extrapolate it to India". Gujarat is not a mini India for such an extrapolation to work - no state is. Recent events showed that Modi will be dependent on the RSS at the national stage. Why couldn't he make RSS or Advani irrelevant if such extrapolations were a reflection of reality? Even today, his control has been greatly diluted by the large number of committees formed.

yeah' date=' but in case of the BJP it won't completely go by everything the RSS says in case it forms the Govt but in case of the Cong we have seen the MMS has done literally nothing without approval form 10 Janpath.[/quote'] Yeah, RSS won't have as much say as the Gandhis, but they will have a much bigger influence than last time BJP was in power. Even someone like Vajpayee was unable to remove Modi in 2002 mainly due to pressure from RSS and Advani. Whoever becomes PM from BJP will have considerably lesser influence than Vajpayee and the role of RSS will be greater as a result.

[Sachin=GOD]

Hindutva track: Is Modi going for broke this time?

From the little clues available from here and there, the Narendra Modi campaign theme appears to have shifted to a high-risk, all-or-nothing approach, where Hindutva is a key part of the message. When Modi’s trusted aide, Amit Shah, went to Ayodhya and talked about wanting to build a Ram Mandir, one could have dismissed it as an aberration, someone talking out of turn. When the “puppy†remark surfaced, one could discount it as a deliberate attempt to create controversies over a statement that could have been interpreted in multiple ways. And so too for the “burkha of securlarism†remark. But posters are springing up in Mumbai about Modi’s “Hindu nationalist†statement. These could not have come up without Modi’s campaign managers knowing nothing about it. More recently, we have heard less about the governance theme or the economy, and more about Modi’s non-secular persona – no doubt through media and Congress orchestration, but we have not seen a spirited attempt to shift the focus back to the economy and governance, either. Why is the BJP not putting the Congress on the backfoot here? Modi also had long discussions with RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat in Nagpur two days back. According to NDTV, which is no friend of Modi, one of the items on the agenda was how to mix “unapologetic†Hindutva with good governance and development. While the Congress strategy of keeping the focus on Modi is clear, since the idea is to deflect debate away from its own non-performance, not so clear is why Modi is going along with it. Yashwant Sinha pointed out a few days ago in an Economic Times article that this way the BJP will lose control of the poll agenda. What could have changed? Ever since it became crystal clear that Modi would be the party’s mascot, two things have changed. First, the Ishrat Jahan case appears to be snowballing into a situation where, at some point, Modi himself could be named somewhere in the charge-sheet. The fact that the Congress party is willing to pit the CBI against its own intelligence agency – the primary internal security outfit – must have convinced Modi what is really afoot. Second, since the Congress strategy of linking Modi to Hindutva and 2002 is now more than apparent, and all its allies are talking the same language, the ability of Modi alone to steer the debate towards the Congress’ non-performance may be in question. Can the BJP on its own decide the agenda in the face of a near universal ganging-up against Modi? This is the question that Modi’s strategists must be asking themselves repeatedly. Have they come to the conclusion that without the flavour of Hindutva, the BJP cannot hope to make a decisive dent in its vote share in 2014? The way the Modi strategy is unfolding, it appears that his campaign managers have decided to spice the governance issue with a strong dose of Hindutva generics. The calculation could be this. If polarisation is unavoidable, with the non-BJP parties driving the agenda, Modi needs a counter-polarisation strategy of his own. The second calculation could be that it may not be worth winning, say, 150-160 seats to merely emerge as the single largest party. In this event, it will not be Modi, but some other BJP consensus candidate who will be the potential consensus PM candidate. The Modi partisans would like nothing less than 180-200 seats so that their man gets the top job. The third calculation could be internal. It is quite clear that Modi has detractors within the BJP. The only way to neutralise this is to get the RSS on your side. Yet another calculation could be that the real target is not 2014, but two years later. If a third front is inevitable due to regional polarisation, one is likely to get a messy coalition in 2014. One can guess that it won’t last more than two years. If the idea is to project a powerful man and his party in 2016 or 2017, it makes sense to focus on pushing up the BJP’s voteshare significantly this time so that two or three years later it can make a stronger pitch for power on its own terms. This is not different from the Congress party’s strategy over UPA-1 and UPA-2, where the party put up weak leaders to run the government when its seat count was not adequate to give the heir-apparent untrammeled power. Of course, all this is speculation. But one can only speculate when the strategy is still unfolding. We will know for sure only after the next few Modi speeches, especially the one scheduled in Hyderabad next month – where the BJP will be making a pitch for Telengana. As a communally polarised city, Hyderabad will be the speech to watch. 2014 promises to be a no-holds-barred and tough campaign for BJP.

http://www.firstpost.com/politics/hindutva-track-is-modi-going-for-broke-this-time-965529.html

[littlemaster1982]

This has been doing rounds in FB. Did anyone else come across this?

[seedhi]

Once again the same thing - Modi is popular in 2014' date=' Advani lost in 2009. It makes no sense to compare between 2009 and 2014 as these 5 years have had multiple events which has titled favor of votes towards the BJP.[/quote']Well one has to take history into consideration. The 2009 results, the popularity surveys, the popularity within the party, age, administrative record .. everything is in favor of Modi. The only plus point with Advani was that JD(U) would have been on board. But what is the use of that when BJP will again end up with 110-120 seats. I think the BJP strategy is to maximize its seat count as a party rather than head a bickering coalition led by a weak leader. I agree Modi is no Vajpayee, but Advani is no Vajpayee either. When you don't have a Vajpayee there is no point in following the Vajpayee strategy.

[Crookbond]

Well one has to take history into consideration. The 2009 results' date= the popularity surveys, the popularity within the party, age, administrative record .. everything is in favor of Modi. The only plus point with Advani was that JD(U) would have been on board. But what is the use of that when BJP will again end up with 110-120 seats. I think the BJP strategy is to maximize its seat count as a party rather than head a bickering coalition led by a weak leader. I agree Modi is no Vajpayee, but Advani is no Vajpayee either. When you don't have a Vajpayee there is no point in following the Vajpayee strategy.

In that case, Modi's history also makes him a failure outside Gujarat.

[Crookbond]

This has been doing rounds in FB. Did anyone else come across this? http://i41.tinypic.com/s0zh1w.jpg

Of course, we know that BRTS at Ahmedabad named Janmarg. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ahmedabad_BRTS

[seedhi]

In that case' date=' Modi's history also makes him a failure outside Gujarat.[/quote']The elections were fought in the name of Advani not Modi. People rejected Advani not Modi.

[Crookbond]

The elections were fought in the name of Advani not Modi. People rejected Advani not Modi.

Actually, people rejected BJP - not Advani or Modi but lets leave that aside. Ah, so you mean to say until Modi does not fight a national election and does not get rejected Modi is cool. Chalo, I will bookmark this post for future. Btw, if history is taken into consideration - (1) Modi has no history and hence this preferential attachment theory does not make him the preferred candidate (any other BJP candidate should do) and (2) He recently campaigned in Karnataka (with his face not Advani) and yet BJP lost. So from (1) and (2), Modi has not given any signs of success and the only differentiating factor for Modi is the karyakarta demands..

[littlemaster1982]

Of course, we know that BRTS at Ahmedabad named Janmarg. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ahmedabad_BRTS

Except that, the photo is not from Ahmedabad :winky:

[someone]

Summarizes a lot of people here as well. Haters who are simply looking at ways to spread hatred and their "superior" secularism. Yet run away when real questions are asked.

[someone]

Congress vs Modi: Who is falling into whose trap? http://www.firstpost.com/politics/congress-vs-modi-who-is-falling-into-whose-trap-961705.html A small section from it

Amidst all this, his central message is that of equality for all and appeasement of none in Indian politics. This is the paradigm shift that Modi is attempting and this is the quicksand that the Congress and her allies are likely to walk into. There are many claimants for the Muslim vote across India and as the elections approach, political parties will try and outdo one another in reaching out to the general electorate and especially the minorities. As Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar’s adviser, author and ex-diplomat Pavan K Varma pointed out in a recent article, “One-fourth of Kerala is Muslim; 30% of West Bengal is Muslim; every fourth person in Assam is Muslim; 30 million Muslims live in UP; some 15 million in Bihar; every ninth resident of Karnataka is Muslim.”

I think the last point is absolute summarizes everything well. Too much attention and emphasis on one community, and it's disappointing as a Indian. As according to some, one can only be called secular when Muslims exclusively is done. Given we are a on cricket forum, I would say so far, it has not yet affected our Indian cricket team. The key phrase is "so far" as really it is bound to happen sooner than later. Another example, in all discussions about the 2002 riots, Hindu victims simply have been forgotten and actually do not exist at all due to the political significance. Some Nazi level propaganda done on that riots and is still done with the full backing of UPA government.

[someone]

Muslims obviously were not going to vote for the BJP but this time they will vote in larger numbers than usual so as to prevent BJP from winning a large number of seats in UP.

Well, there are still Muslims there who will vote for BJP. And secondly, it works both ways. There are also other communities who will go out in full force to vote for Modi especially. And this is exactly what Congress are falling into the trap. As now they are being accused of being anti-Hindu.

[Sachin=GOD]

Well' date=' there are still Muslims there who will vote for BJP. And secondly, it works both ways. [b']There are also other communities who will go out in full force to vote for Modi especially. And this is exactly what Congress are falling into the trap. As now they are being accused of being anti-Hindu.

however much Modi tries the Hindutcva card, this is not happening. Ram Mandir was the last issue on which Hindus polarized - Modi isn't powerful enough to make them vote in large numbers for him.

[someone]

however much Modi tries the Hindutcva card' date=' this is not happening. Ram Mandir was the last issue on which Hindus polarized - Modi isn't powerful enough to make them vote in large numbers for him.[/quote'] Do you really think this is all about Hindus vs Muslims? There are many other communities around and also many who do not simply vote on religion. That also includes few Muslims. Few I only would admit. Another reason ,there are many first timers voters where Modi is most popular among them as younger generation rather wants substance(development) than dirty politics.