G_B_ Posted January 22, 2014 Posted January 22, 2014 10-15 seats max for AAP. That is best case. I doubt they are doing much in Chennai and Kolkata Delhi+ Bangalore + Mumbai , they can hope to get seats I think AAP should reach 15. They will make heavy inroads in the NCR especially around the Haryana side where they should pick up 3 seats IMO in the state. I doubt the AAP effect in mumbai. All they will do there is get like 10-15% of the votes and probably cancel out the MNS for the sena and bjp to pick up the seats. The AAP movement is extremely strong in Pune. So i expect them to pick up seats there. So i will say AAP--9 seats in NCR, 3 in Maharashtra (Pune/Mumbai) and 3 in the rest of the metros.
G_B_ Posted January 22, 2014 Posted January 22, 2014 Gujarat poll tracker: Modi-led BJP to win 20-25 seats, Congress 1-4 http://ibnlive.in.com/news/gujarat-poll-tracker-modiled-bjp-to-win-2025-seats-congress-14/447162-81.html
G_B_ Posted January 22, 2014 Posted January 22, 2014 Chattisgragh BJP 50% Congress 34% and Others 15% (vote share) BJP expected to sweep 11 seats.
Sachin=GOD Posted January 22, 2014 Posted January 22, 2014 ^Guj, MP, C'garh look about right as of now...
G_B_ Posted January 22, 2014 Posted January 22, 2014 Maharashtra AAP 5% Sena-BJP 44% MNS 2% and Cong-NCP- 35%, AAP eating into Congress votes and MNS staying away from general elections to concentrate on state elections in late 2014. BJP-Shiv Sena 25-33 seats NCP-Congress 12-20 seats MNS 1-5 seats Lack of Marathi leader and orator in AAP heavily impacting party.
G_B_ Posted January 22, 2014 Posted January 22, 2014 These maharashtra results are in line with my expectations. There are way too many factors in favour of Sena-BJP for lok sabha. --- Modi has monopolised the sizeable 20% Gujarati vote in Mumbai --- MNS has backed off lok sabha so less likely to eat into sena-bjp --- AAP/SP heavily eating into Congress-NCP --- No AAP Marathi Leader. Leaders like Yogendra Yadav just wont be able to communicate with the Marathi people who form about 33% of the city. Effectively means that the sena and even mns vote stays intact. --- RPI ensuring that they provide 2-3% of the vote in Mumbai and urban areas. Keep in mind this survey was taken in 5-15th Jan. Since that Raju Shetti has joined the alliance and will have a further role to play in the sugar belt. One thing becomes painfully clear for Sharad Pawar and the NCP. Supriya Sule is a dud.
G_B_ Posted January 22, 2014 Posted January 22, 2014 by my calculations if we take the average value of these results the BJP is expected to get 88 seats (along with Sena/RPI 15) from Guj, Maha, Madhya and Chattisgragh. BJP on their own should get 70-75 seats in this segment. Which is 1/3 of the seats modi needs to govern well.
G_B_ Posted January 22, 2014 Posted January 22, 2014 By my estimate based on this poll BJP Region wise performance West India (Gujarat 22 Maharashtra (12) (Sena excluded) , Rajasthan (15), Goa (1) 50 seats Central India MP (25) and Chattisgragh (10) 35 seats Southern India (Karnataka 8 seats, TN (0) Kerela (0) Andra 2 seats In coalition) 10 seats Cow Belt (Bihar 18, UP 40, Jharkhand 10) 68 seats East and North East (Orrissa 2 North East 5 WB 2) 9 Northern india (Haryana 3, Uttaranchal 4, Himachal Pradesh 2, Punjab 4, J&K 1 Delhi 2) 16 seats Union Territories BJP 4. not confident on the 40 BJP part in UP. S=G and Outsider will be able to provide more of an insight. But as things stand its BJP 190 and NDA (sena+ akali+RPI) 210 by my estimates. If you take UP as 30 which i am confident on then it works out to 180 seats for the BJP and 200 for the NDA. Lets see what the poll tracker has to say on UP. Probably UP will decide the fate of modi. I have read estimates ranging from 26 to 50 in recent times. If BJP get 50 in UP then IMO Modi will become the PM of India. Modi IMO needs 190-200 to govern. 180 and there is a good chance he wil have to step down for somebody like Shivraj Chauhan as he wont be able to attract allies. BJP need to pick their allies in Andhra Pradesh and TN carefully and by the time the elections comes out they need to squeeze 6-7 seats out of these states. In 1999 when BJP last won the election they won 7 seats in Andhra 4 seats in Tamil Nadu. Both Andhra and Tamil Nadu results were due to local allies and seat sharing.
G_B_ Posted January 22, 2014 Posted January 22, 2014 BJP, DMK try for poll alliance with DMDK Chennai, Jan 22, 2014, DHNS: The battle between the DMK and the BJP to woo the Vijayakanth-led DMDK to their respective camps intensified with both the parties making desperate efforts to strike a deal ahead of the forthcoming Lok Sabha polls. Even as state BJP president Pon Radhakrishnan sounded confident about striking a deal with Vijayakanth, the equally aggressive DMK led by its president and former chief minister M Karunanidhi is sending emissaries from their allied parties to ensure the DMDK ends up in their cammp. Asked about the possibility of the DMDK-BJP alliance, Radhakrishnan said: "certainly our party representatives have spoken in this regard. The out come of the discussions are positive and we are confident that the alliance will take place.†He also added that the DMDK could retain its identity as an alternative to the Dravidian parties in the state if it allies with the BJP. The BJP, without an ally in the state so far, feels the DMDK has a proven vote share of 10 per cent in the 2009 Lok Sabha and 2011 Assembly elections. BJP general secretary Muralidhar Rao also made efforts to reach out to Vijayakanth by meeting his wife Premalatha and brother-in-law L K Sudheesh in Chennai recently. DMK leaders M Karunanidhi and his son M K Stalin, meanwhile, have offered enough indications that they would like a deal with the DMDK, calling for better understanding between the parties. While Karunanidhi said, “We have invited the DMDK to have an alliance with us as per our formalities,†Stalin has said the party would be happy if DMDK joins the DMK-led alliance and he would welcome it. Recently, Karunanidhi even went to the extent of declaring that he would sack his older son Alagiri for his statement against Vijayakanth in a private television interview. http://www.deccanherald.com/content/382185/bjp-dmk-try-poll-alliance.html
randomGuy Posted January 23, 2014 Posted January 23, 2014 AAP - 2014 North India - 40 seats (15 - delhi+haryana, 20 - UP, 5 - rest of the states) West - 10 (5 - Maharashtra, 5 - guj+raj) South + East - 10 (5 - Assam, 2 - karnataka, 3 - rest)
Sachin=GOD Posted January 23, 2014 Posted January 23, 2014 By my estimate based on this poll BJP Region wise performance West India (Gujarat 22 Maharashtra (12) (Sena excluded) , Rajasthan (15), Goa (1) 50 seats Central India MP (25) and Chattisgragh (10) 35 seats Southern India (Karnataka 8 seats, TN (0) Kerela (0) Andra 2 seats In coalition) 10 seats Cow Belt (Bihar 18, UP 40, Jharkhand 10) 68 seats East and North East (Orrissa 2 North East 5 WB 2) 9 Northern india (Haryana 3, Uttaranchal 4, Himachal Pradesh 2, Punjab 4, J&K 1 Delhi 2) 16 seats Union Territories BJP 4. This is sort of a best case scenario for BJP - usually things don't pan out as such in elections. There can (and will be) be any number of disruptive factors - be it AAP doing well from hereon or something like Varun Gandhi's hate speech from 2009 or maybe a resurgence of Cong etc In UP I still don't think BJP will cross even 30, let alone 40. Something like the early 20s looks good right now - but this is one state where things can change, for the better or worse, very quickly and without any indication. Also, I expect 3-4 more in Raj while 4-5 less in MP/Gujarat and I don't think BJP can win 10 each in Chattisgarh and Jharkhand - too optimistic IMO. And I also think there will be about 3-4 more in Delhi/Haryana combined for BJP while a few less in Bihar.
BeautifulGame Posted January 23, 2014 Posted January 23, 2014 If communist parties and AAP can get combined at least 60-70 seats there is a real chance for 3 front govt formation with support from Jaya Nitish Mamta BJD and Mulayam/ Mayawathi imo.
G_B_ Posted January 23, 2014 Posted January 23, 2014 This is sort of a best case scenario for BJP - usually things don't pan out as such in elections. There can (and will be) be any number of disruptive factors - be it AAP doing well from hereon or something like Varun Gandhi's hate speech from 2009 or maybe a resurgence of Cong etc In UP I still don't think BJP will cross even 30, let alone 40. Something like the early 20s looks good right now - but this is one state where things can change, for the better or worse, very quickly and without any indication. Also, I expect 3-4 more in Raj while 4-5 less in MP/Gujarat and I don't think BJP can win 10 each in Chattisgarh and Jharkhand - too optimistic IMO. And I also think there will be about 3-4 more in Delhi/Haryana combined for BJP while a few less in Bihar. Well i have taken the poll tracker from cnn ibn and basically taken the average. The scenario according to that is ranges from 185-210 BJP. The BJP for example has already won 10 odd seats in Chattisgragh in 2009. Its just a matter of maintaining them which they should. I have not across any state (barring karnataka) in any survey where the BJP vote share has declined compared to 2009. Its the same in Jharkhand. The way i see it the probability of the BJP actually decreasing its vote/seat share in central/western states like Goa Maha, Guj, Madhya, Chattis and Rajasthan is slim. So if say the BJP has won 9/10 seats in 2009 in these places, the worst they can do is maintain them. If we take what you say then the BJP currently are at 170.
G_B_ Posted January 23, 2014 Posted January 23, 2014 If communist parties and AAP can get combined at least 60-70 seats there is a real chance for 3 front govt formation with support from Jaya Nitish Mamta BJD and Mulayam/ Mayawathi imo. the math still does not add up. Lets assume they get 65 seats. Nitish gets 15, BJD 14, Mamata 25, Jaya 25 , Mulayam/Mayawati about 40. Works out to about 184 seats. Which means they need congress outside support. An incredibly shaky proposition. This also ignores that Mamata Banerjee will be brain dead to support the communists being in government. and that arthritic of Left and AAP getting 70 seats is flawed. The left are *****ing a brick in West Bengal and are behind the Congress allaince in Kerela. These two places have contributed the most to the communists. They are barely going to get 25 seats nation wide. Thats me being optimistic. AAP itself will probably get 15. In places like NCR where AAP are strong Commies are not a big factor. In Kerela and WB where commies have a base AAP is not a factor at all. They are not going to pick up 30 odd seats by entering an alliance. If anything the AAP rhetoric of being fresh party will be eaten up if they ally with the commies or for that matter anybody. AAP are better suited focusing IMO on NCR areas. Thats where they have the support base IMO. While the commies are better off concentrating on Kerela. Bannerjee will improve her performance for the lok sabha in WB IMO. There is a whole world of pain coming their way.
G_B_ Posted January 23, 2014 Posted January 23, 2014 Thats the biggest problem with the third front. Even the regional parties of India are not exactly the only regional parties in the states. Nitish wont support a government containing Lalu Prasad and vice versa Mamata and the Left wont be in the same government or support it. BSP and SP have the same metric. DMK and AIADMK are the same. Very rarely do we find single regional parties like the BJD who are a regional party and sweep lok sabha and local elections.
randomGuy Posted January 23, 2014 Posted January 23, 2014 Contest in UP is gonna be 4 or 5 pronged , aap has a chance coz it'll need lesser percentage of votes to win.
randomGuy Posted January 23, 2014 Posted January 23, 2014 Opinion polls predicted 7-8seats for aap in delhi , they won 28. For loksabha they are giving them 15 right now, so 60 should be a fair expectation
ganeshran Posted January 23, 2014 Author Posted January 23, 2014 I would be pleasantly surprised if they manage 15. Anything above 25 is just impossible. Lok Sabha is a totally different ball game to delhi Assembly elections which can be fought with less funds and more door to door campaigning
randomGuy Posted January 23, 2014 Posted January 23, 2014 I would be pleasantly surprised if they manage 15. Anything above 25 is just impossible. Lok Sabha is a totally different ball game to delhi Assembly elections which can be fought with less funds and more door to door campaigning no one knew abt them,no one was sure abt their success, yet they got 28. Delhi election budget was 20 cr. This time, they are planning 200 cr by reaching out to corporates for funding. Media is making them a familiar name country wide.
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