mishra Posted May 20, 2015 Posted May 20, 2015 the bjp vote share has dramatically increased. From about 2-3% to even 12-15% (from the municipal elections) and will probably be more in the assembly. not saying its easy but you need to number 2 to reap the rewards of anti incumbancy Bengalees still stick with traditional Didi CPM Congress parties. BJP doesnt attract youths in Bengal to the extent that it can get a leader among them. they havent got grassroot workers/infrastructure. There is no towering political figure from Bengal BJP. It will take at least 15 years for BJP to pose any significant challenge to other political parties in Bengal.
G_B_ Posted May 20, 2015 Posted May 20, 2015 Bengalees still stick with traditional Didi CPM Congress parties. BJP doesnt attract youths in Bengal to the extent that it can get a leader among them. they havent got grassroot workers/infrastructure. There is no towering political figure from Bengal BJP. It will take at least 15 years for BJP to pose any significant challenge to other political parties in Bengal. gotta start from somewhere.... Before 2014 BJP was never a force in Haryana. Never say never
mishra Posted May 21, 2015 Posted May 21, 2015 BJP is still a party of middle India. Orissa BJP WB BJP, Assam BJP, NE BJP, kerala BJP, Tamil BJP, Still a long way. People in these states (specially cities and towns) do admire/want BJP. But BJP lacks leaders.
Sachin=GOD Posted May 21, 2015 Posted May 21, 2015 Recently there was a long Caravan piece on Arun Jaitley and it was, let's just say, not very charitable towards him. So now here's a favorable piece: Arun Jaitley, BJP’s Man for All Seasons http://thewire.in/2015/05/21/arun-jaitley-bjps-man-for-all-seasons/ He really is the master of spin.
mishra Posted May 21, 2015 Posted May 21, 2015 ^ Nah , Still dont rate him much. He looks like politician. Same is with Rajnath Singh. But I guess bJP need leaders like them too. They can play the game
Sachin=GOD Posted May 21, 2015 Posted May 21, 2015 ^ Nah ' date=' Still dont rate him much. He looks like politician. Same is with Rajnath Singh. But I guess bJP need leaders like them too. They can play the game[/quote'] Rajnath Singh is corrupt and inept as a politician. He, more than any other person, is responsible for BJP's decline in UP. Jaitley is not corrupt and is a good administrator.
G_B_ Posted May 21, 2015 Posted May 21, 2015 BJP is still a party of middle India. Orissa BJP WB BJP' date=' Assam BJP, NE BJP, kerala BJP, Tamil BJP, Still a long way. People in these states (specially cities and towns) do admire/want BJP. But BJP lacks leaders.[/quote'] which part of "BJP have to begin from somewhere" dont you understand?
mishra Posted May 22, 2015 Posted May 22, 2015 which part of "BJP have to begin from somewhere" dont you understand? But who is taking initiative in these states? Orissa it has gone other way round. IIRC It was stronger during Atals day
G_B_ Posted May 22, 2015 Posted May 22, 2015 But who is taking initiative in these states? Orissa it has gone other way round. IIRC It was stronger during Atals day Orissa , you can blame Advani for the decline. Or the general Advani admin including people like Mr Kulkarni. I guess what happened was Orissa etc Mahajan was the point man. He passed away and it led to a big organisational black hole. Which set back the BJP for years. In the end they ended up relying on the BJD a bit too much. The congress weakened in that state and the BJD did not need BJP votes anymore. But the loss of Mahajan cannot be understated. He was the one who was in charge for BJP relationship with allies. I think Patnaik did say he was offended that BJP sent too junior people to negotiate seats with him. While he wanted a better deal, he was looking to keep the alliance in order to make national gains in terms of cabinet seats. But this act pissed him off. Now as far as the current BJP in Orissa goes, the problem is Patnaik and the BJD has tremendous organisational hold in all districts. On top of which we have to admit that Patnaik in general is governing well on an economic and social level. It becomes very hard to dislodge somebody when they are doing a good job. The BJP under Modi have identified tribals as a group who dont vote for the BJD and have been voting for the Congress. They are targeting this vote. Its where the RSS are trying to make inroads. But it will take time. The BJP has been on a downward path in Orissa for a decade or so. The Modi admin took charge in say 2013. Its cant be improved in simply 2 years. Its going to take some 5-6 years for leaders (most likely tribal leaders) to emerge. Even then the problem is Biju patnaik wont care that much. Tribals never voted for him. The rise of the BJP means the fall of the Congress. In orissa i feel its only a matter of time that the BJP replaces the congress as chief opposition. In 2014 assembly election BJP polled 18% (on the back of a Modi wave) which is their best ever showing in terms of vote % in Orissa. It could have been much better but local leadership was incompetent.
mishra Posted May 22, 2015 Posted May 22, 2015 ^ Makes Sense. Complete Sense. Mahajan had skipped off my mind
G_B_ Posted May 22, 2015 Posted May 22, 2015 In a way Mahajan passing away looking at things from the POV of today was the best thing to happen to the BJP. It may sound harsh and I was in awe of Mahajan but with the aid of Mahajan Advani would have clung on. The death of mahajan paved the way for the rise of Modi in a way. Mahajan would have gathered all the allies from Sena to the Jd(u) behind Advani and blocked Modi. These allies on average had about 40 seats in the lok sabha between them. BJP maharashtra unit too would be in the Advani camp. He was also a favourite of the RSS. Mahjan was a good organiser. He also had the role of raising money from the corporates for the BJP cause. What he was not was a mass leader. I do believe in 2009 BJP would have performed much better with Mahajan in charge of the campaign. Sure they would not have won but i think they would have reached the 150-160 mark. Congress would be like 180 odd.
G_B_ Posted May 22, 2015 Posted May 22, 2015 these rumours of BJP absorbing the YSR congress in Andhra Pradesh just cant seem to die down any local golt can provide better info? (kalia maniac?) Seems those below Jagan dont like his reckless way of operation. Jagan himself appears to be keen to cut a deal with the BJP in return for RS seat for his family and been given aid in his case.
G_B_ Posted May 22, 2015 Posted May 22, 2015 Looks like Modi and the BJP have made major gains as per the latest poll on ABP news in Bihar http://www.abplive.in/india/2015/05/22/article595577.ece/ABP-News-Opinion-Poll-The-mood-in-Bihar The OpinionPoll has suggested that if the alliance between Congress (24), RJD (61) and JDU (42) is set to win 127 out of the 243 seats & making a claim to form the government. BJP (93), LJP (3) and RLSP (16) together is likely to bag only 112 seats. While Others in the fray get just four seats. The same news agency had the BJP alliance at 43% and the Janata Pariwar at 57% in Jan/Feb http://www.abplive.in/india/2015/02/19/article506796.ece/Nitish-Kumar-responsible-for-political-turmoil-most-suitable-to-become-Bihar-CM-Snap-Poll shows the momentum is very in the favour of the BJP. All this bickering plus Manjhi episode as set back the Janata combo. Plus i dont think the current polls takes pappu yadav into account. Ultimately Modi will be able to concentrate his power on bihar as it will be a solitary state elections with multiple dates of voting. Very promising this.
G_B_ Posted May 22, 2015 Posted May 22, 2015 if these numbers pan out. As per the latest survey there is a good chance the BJP can still form government with the Jd(u) offering Nitish incentives in the centre.
G_B_ Posted May 25, 2015 Posted May 25, 2015 BJP rules out alliance with AIADMK, DMK, to go with LS allies http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/bjp-rules-out-alliance-with-aiadmk-dmk-to-go-with-ls-allies/articleshow/47407441.cms and thats that
G_B_ Posted May 26, 2015 Posted May 26, 2015 Looks like BJP might still have Manjhi as an ally.. or is Shah creating false hope? Hinting at tie-up with Manjhi, BJP chief Amit Shah says all doors are open in Bihar http://indianexpress.com/article/india/politics/hinting-at-tie-up-with-manjhi-bjp-chief-amit-shah-says-all-doors-are-open-in-bihar/ Seat sharing is going to a *****..... not sure this will work with 4 parties.
G_B_ Posted May 27, 2015 Posted May 27, 2015 Bihar poll: Former CM Manjhi in Delhi for talks with BJP New Delhi: Former Bihar chief minister Jitan Ram Manjhi, whose proposed inclusion in the Janata Parivar alliance has sharpened differences between Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad, has arrived in the capital to hold talks with BJP leaders for a possible tie-up in the poll-bound state. Sources close to him said the Mahadalit leader will be meeting Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Thursday as the BJP-led NDA looks to widen its base in the state. BJP president Amit Shah had yesterday hinted at joining hands with Manjhi, saying talks are on and his party's doors are open for new allies. Manjhi is being eyed by BJP-led NDA as well as Prasad as their new ally as the Mahadalit community has the potential of tilting the scale in favour of either of the two alliances. Many believe that his populist policies when he was the Chief Minister, besides his sacking from the hot seat by JD(U), has generated some sympathy for him in his community even though he remains an "untested commodity". Prasad, the RJD president, had recently proposed that Manjhi be included in the grand alliance against BJP, inviting sharp response from Chief Minister Nitish Kumar who is against any truck with his former protege. Manjhi had also made it clear that he would not be part of any combination which includes Kumar. With differences between Kumar and Prasad coming to the fore, BJP believes it can wrest the state from the two Bihar satraps who together have ruled it for the last 25 years. http://zeenews.india.com/news/bihar/bihar-poll-former-cm-manjhi-in-delhi-for-talks-with-bjp_1602839.html
G_B_ Posted May 27, 2015 Posted May 27, 2015 btw BJP have reformed their committees and district level heads in Orissa giving youth a chance. They will project a candidate for CM in the 2019 assembly elections. A key target is 2017 panchayat elections where they have a poor record. Tribal (congress) and upper castes (BJD) have been identified as crucial voting blocks. The aim is to replace the congress as the next largest party in the state with an aim of securing 20% plus of the popular vote. This is Shah's stamp on the state. Only time will tell it it works. But its good to see BJP's local unit has been given deadlines and organised a lot better. In 2014 they were basically headless chickens. While BJD was strong IMO the BJP should have polled more than the congress in the state. That was a big draw back. The BJP is striving hard to emerge as the main opposition party in Odisha by performing better than the Congress in the panchayat elections scheduled to be held in the State in 2017. At the same time, however, the party has not been able to put its own house in order. Even though the party was able to increase its vote share in Odisha, riding the Modi wave in last year’s elections, convincing its workers that it had no secret understanding with the ruling Biju Janata Dal has emerged as the main hurdle. A 17-member committee has been constituted to activate the workers by organising protests to highlight local issues affecting the people. The BJP aims to fight the BJD in the next general elections in 2019, but it has to move ahead of the Congress to emerge as the main challenger, the position the Congress has been maintaining since the BJD came to power 15 years ago. The party is also trying to strengthen its base in the tribal regions of the State. Former Minister Draupadi Murmu has been appointed as Governor of Jharkhand as a step in this direction. Further, there is speculation about veteran Congress leader and former Chief Minister Giridhar Gamang joining the BJP. If so, the party might weaken the Congress. http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/other-states/odisha-bjp-looking-at-panchayat-polls-in-2017/article7215144.ece
G_B_ Posted May 30, 2015 Posted May 30, 2015 ^ http://www.orissadiary.com/CurrentNews.asp?id=59381 In relation to Orissa, Giridhar Gamang a tribal leader is tipped to join the BJP. More than him his son is seen as the young gun the BJP are looking at. Looks like the Shah strategy is gathering pace. In order to challenge the BJD they need to bleed the Congress in the state first.
Recommended Posts