9% growth a pipedream for India, 6.5% more likely: Crisil

[scorpio90]

http://www.hindustantimes.com/business-news/9-growth-a-pipedream-for-india-6-5-more-likely-crisil/article1-1210326.aspx

There is an even chance that the Indian economy will grow at an annualised average rate of 6.5% over the next five years, credit rating and research firm Crisil said in a report on Sunday, signalling that the country’s slowdown is stickier than earlier believed. The slower expansion will affect job creation and job prospects, while on the other hand, weak income will affect the sales of a range of goods — from cars to two-wheelers, from houses to cement and steel. Crisil warned that unless pressing policy and implementation issues are addressed, even sustaining this (6.5%) growth would be difficult. The Indian economy’s average annual expansion of 6.7% during the past five years (2009-14 and Crisil’s forecasts suggest the economy’s a steep turnaround wasn’t likely anytime soon. "With 6.5% average GDP growth, non-farm employment over this period will at best grow by 37 million," Crisil said in a report titled "Of Growth and Missed Opportunities". "This means an additional 14 million (people) will be forced to either depend on low-productivity agriculture or remain unemployed," it said. By 2019, more than 51 million people would be seeking employment. "Given insufficient job opportunities, labour force will not be able to migrate to the higher-wage, more- productive industry and services sectors," the report pointed out. Elevated prices have hurt family budgets, as companies are offering meagre salary hikes and are holding back expansion and hiring. Besides, high inflation has prompted the RBI to raise lending rates. Households putting off spending are early warning signals for the onset of an economy-wide squeeze. According to the Crisil report, sales of consumer items such as cars and televisions "have taken a huge beating in the last 2-3 years" . "The high growth phase won’t return soon-not in the next five years at least," the report said. India’s economy has now recorded five successive quarter of sub-5% growth, and appears set to clock the second consecutive year of annual growth of below 5%, the first time in 25 years. India’s economy grew by 4.5% in 2012-13, the worst in a decade. From a foreign investors’ darling to an economy characterised by policy flip-flops, the Indian economy’s turnabout has been as rapid as the heady 9%-plus growth it clocked during 2004-2008.

UPA has transferred most of the bills to next financial year (and for next gov to deal with) and still they were unable to meet the budget deficit target of 4.8 %. But listen to Congress priorities.

Rahul Gandhi said Congress alone could ensure social justice, protect secular values and carry along all sections of people. He targeted the BJP saying the party pit Hindus against Muslims and work only to benefit few businessmen and industrialists. "They want two India. One for poor and another for rich. We want one India where all people should enjoy the fruits of development," he said. "Today, the clothes you wear, the wristwatch and footwear you use, all carry made in China label. I dream of a day when all these items carry made in Telangana and made in India labels. I also want to see a day when people in other countries use mobile phones and cameras, they carry made in Telangana and made in India stickers," he said.

[Malcolm Merlyn]

The Sonianomics has killed the economy.Her policy of handing out popularist welfare schemes has pushed the economy to the brink.To top that they didnot do anything to boost the economy to pare of those subsidies and welfare schemes. Thats how they made a comeback in 2009. Then the division of Andhra.Reservation for OBCs.The list is endless. Basically in last 5 years they have killed whatever we gained from economic reforms of 90s to through to the economic boom of 2000s.

[CSK Fan]

Just curious which other country(ies) are growing at this rate or more? I heard China too is slowing down and bound to slow down further

[diga]

we may not grow at 9% due to a lot of factors.. but 5-7% would have been a realistic figure. I believe the defecit & growth numbers have been fudged a lot in the previous 2 years

[surajmal]

Build Infra, leave policies to the states. Policy discussions with stakeholders would be an utter waste of time. With regards to the slow down in growth: I hope people will now stop giving credit to the Goonga Singh for liberalization. It was PVN Rao's baby through and through.

[surajmal]

Just curious which other country(ies) are growing at this rate or more? I heard China too is slowing down and bound to slow down further

India is so underdeveloped in every aspect (save for IT) that in a just society its politicians and Babus would be rotting in jail for sheer incompetence alone.

[kubrickian]

Government needs to create an environment where people can become entrepreneurs and solve social problems. They need to create infrastructure (build roads, bridges, improve airports, ports etc), provide interrupted power supply where local businesses can thrive and can attract more foreign investment. It would lead to creation of more jobs and subsequently also improve standard of living. But corruption has ensured that lot of money doesnt go into infrastructure projects, vested interests make sure certain projects dont get finished, politicians also like keeping population backward to control them. Political leadership has to change and people also have to be empowered because ultimately they only can improve their society because politicians cant solve everything.

[Sachin=GOD]

Inhe kuch pata bhi hai jo bakbak kar rahe hain....ModiJi aaney waaley hain....economy ko 9% se grow karwaney waaley hain :aha:

[scorpio90]

http://m.economictimes.com/opinion/interviews/ready-to-work-with-congress-on-fdi-policy-continuity-top-priority-narendra-modi/articleshow/34066873.cms

Ready to work with Congress on FDI, policy continuity top priority: Narendra Modi In a wide-ranging interview to ET that focussed on election prospects as well as economic policy challenges, Narendra Modi predicted a NDA win and a Congress rout, but said he's ready to work with Congress post-poll. Significantly, Modi had words of praise for Prime Minister Manmohan Singh even while he strongly critiqued Congress' economic policy. Equally significantly, while answering questions on FDI policy and retail FDI, BJP's PM candidate said protecting investor sentiment and maintaining policy continuity are top priorities If you win, you will inherit a sickly economy. A new government will have short-term pressures to lift investor mood and medium-term pressure to lift actual investment. What are your plans for these most critical areas? I agree that the new government will inherit an economy in a very bad shape. I do not know whether it was by design that the UPA government has left the economy in a shape that is worse than ever before. Probably, it is the Congress' way of making it difficult for successor governments to work. The NDA government had demitted office in 2004 leaving the GDP growth rate in excess of 8.5%. India was poised to attain double digit growth rate and the economy looked in great shape with inflation being under control. UPA has mismanaged the economy. When UPA is going out of power, the GDP growth rate has gone down to 4.5%, inflation is at an all-time high and the mood is of pessimism. As far as perception-related issues are concerned, thankfully we have our track record to fall back upon. Therefore, it would be much easier to handle perception-related issues. We will have to immediately get on the job and come out of the present state of policy paralysis and lack of decision-making. We are very clear that we want a government that does not shy away from taking decisions. We would like a stable policy framework and whatever incentives and tax structures are there should be made known to investors upfront. There should be credibility, clarity and continuity in both policy formulation and its implementation. You are perceived to be investor-friendly. However, your party is opposed to big reforms such as FDI in multi-brand retail. Don't you think this will depress foreign investor sentiments? What happens to companies like Tesco, whose JV with the Tatas has already been approved by the Centre? While we have expressed our reservations on FDI in multi-brand retail, our party manifesto is very clear that we welcome FDI in all sectors. Wherever we think that FDI can help in generating jobs for the youth and growth in employment, we will encourage the same. As regards individual cases, any decision will depend upon the merits of the case as revealed by its details. However, we are equally committed to take care of investor sentiments and to ensure that we do not send any message of uncertainty and lack of continuity in decision-making process which is likely to adversely impact the confidence of investors in general and foreign investors in particular. You have said you don't believe in 100 days performance targets. But first perceptions are important. How do you plan to make your first perception? I don't think with my own track record of more than 12 years as the chief minister of a strong and vibrant state and the track record of the six years of NDA rule, I am under much of a pressure of perception management. Central policy has many stakeholders and vested interests. What are your plans to tackle this, do you have any fundamental reform in mind? You have said there has to be a Team India, one office can't run the country — how will you create that Team India? I think the Team India is already there. As a chief minister, I have experienced first hand the problems that the state governments face vis-a-vis the Centre. I fully understand the expectations of the state governments. Thus, I am better placed to work closely with the chief ministers. I also believe in delegation, decentralisation and empowerment. We should work with the principle that a work that can be done at a lower level should never be escalated to a higher level. On land issues, the Centre has much less freedom — will you make a special effort to clear up the land for industry? If so, how? As of now, it is the states who are taking the lead in implementation of projects and bringing about growth and development. The Centre in the last 10 years has only ended up delaying projects on one or the other pretext. Apart from an all-pervasive policy paralysis coupled with a lack of decision-making ability, it has also been large-scale corruption in the guise of environment protection which has been responsible for project delays. If the Centre can become a facilitator, then a healthy competition between the states is going to take care of issues related to project implementation. Regarding the issue of land for industry, we are very clear that a win-win solution is possible and industrial investment need not come at the cost of sacrificing the interest of farmers. Right now we are having a situation wherein due to procedural delays the farmers are not getting adequate and timely compensation and the projects are also not taking off in time, leading to project delays and cost overruns. So it is a lose-lose situation today. This is due to the Congress party's belief in symbolism and lip service to the interest of farmers. We will move towards the system of speedy and more transparent process where the first priority will be to give adequate compensation to the farmers to their satisfaction and protecting the interest of the farmers. At the same time, there will be equal emphasis on time-bound project implementation. I seriously think that in the end the additional amount paid to the farmers on enhanced compensation will be less than the money saved by timely implementation of projects. Relations between BJP and Congress have nosedived, but won't you need Congress to get Parliament to support policy-making? Do you plan to reach out if and when you are in power? I do not think it is a correct assessment that the relations between BJP and Congress have nosedived. It is natural during elections for pitched battles to be fought. In the last 10 years, the BJP has supported several initiatives of the Congress; be it the Food Security Bill or the Land Acquisition Bill, Lokpal Bill, Telangana etc. Today, all mature politicians understand the importance of working together on issues of vital national importance. We hear that if you win you plan to run a smaller government. If that's true, how small will your government be... Do you have a finance minister on mind? I think these questions are premature. It would be * appropriate that we wait till 16th May before getting into these discussions. How will a Modi government be different from earlier ones? How will your cabinet be different? Will you go for a government of technocrats? Again, let's wait till 16th May. We also hear you want the Centre to focus only on areas listed out in the central list, while leaving the states to work on the states list. Will you please elaborate? I have been a firm believer in the federal structure of our country as enshrined in the Constitution. While any BJP-led government will never do anything to trample upon the authority of the states, we would also not shy away from our responsibility to play a role in coordinating the efforts of the states wherever needed. Cabinet ministers frequently underperform and PMs frequently look helpless when they underperform. Will you set targets for ministers, set goals and hold ministers accountable? As I have said, I believe in team work and collective responsibility. I believe that all the members of a team should be given specific responsibilities and empowered to discharge those responsibilities. Needless to say, accountability has to be there in any such arrangement and it also includes me. When we work as a team, every member including the captain has to be accountable to the team. Further, in democracy ultimate accountability is to the people. You have had difficult relationships with other countries after 2002, especially with the US. Will you travel to the US ever? These are all figments of the imagination of certain people. I have always had the best relations with various countries. In fact, more than 100 countries participated in the last Vibrant Gujarat Investors Summit-2013. In any case, I am clear that issues between countries are far too important to be even remotely influenced by individuals or events. How many seats will BJP win this poll as per your assessment? This is an unprecedented election we are seeing. In every way this election is going to be difficult to predict even for psephologists. However, I have travelled the length and breadth of the country and the tremendous groundswell of support that I have seen makes me confident about a few things. Firstly, this election we are going to see the highest turnout and the largest participation of young voters. Secondly, the sentiment against the Congress party is very strong. The Congress party is not only staring at a certain defeat, but also going to fall to its lowest tally in independent India's electoral history. I would not be surprised if the Congress fails to attain double digit score in any state and almost certainly it is not going to reach the triple figure mark nationally. Thirdly, this is the first election in which anti-incumbency feeling is present along with overwhelming positive vote for change. Thus, I see the BJP and the NDA both achieving their best performances ever. Now, it is almost certain that the pre-poll alliance of NDA will get a clear majority. What is Narendra Modi the person like? What motivates him, what does he dislike? What does he want to be remembered for? You can call me a workaholic. It is most often working and the possibility of positively impacting the lives of millions which motivates me. I am stickler for punctuality and discipline. Therefore, at times I don't like it when my schedules get delayed. It is probably too early in the day for me to be thinking about what I would like to be remembered for. You have been critical in your speeches about Manmohan Singh.. Is there anything that you would give him credit for? I would certainly give Dr Manmohan Singh a lot of credit for the work he did as finance minister in the Narasimha Rao government. Even as prime minister, he may have been able to do some good work had he been given the authority and independence to function. That, however, is in the realm of history now. I certainly respect him as an individual.