****Maharashtra Assembly Elections 2014 Thread***

[G_B_]

Firstly,the take out one man logic applies to other parties. Take away Gandhi family, Congress would be left with nothing. Take away the Thackeray name, Shiv Sena would suffer. But the difference is BJP is dependent on a worker, Modi, somebody who raised from the grassroots whereas the other parties are dependent on a family. Thus, BJP will have new leaders as there is a internal democracy within the party. Next, please remember BJP is still in an alliance in Maharashtra elections. They went in the elections with 4 other parties. They still want to form the government with that existing alliance. So BJP does want alliances and is committed to it while SS greed made them break the alliance. With SS/BJP running independently, it has offered a good reality check for all parties. But seeing SS indecent targeting of Modi, there is definitely some anger among workers of BJP. So how will SS correct the damage and hatred they caused/created? That's gonna be one factor to consider on should SS be back together in MH.

those are 4 incredibly small parties. Even in UP and Bihar BJP had extremely small parties. I am talking proper allies. Look at bihar. BJP also in alliance with Lalu and Jd (u) combining resulted in a much better show in the assembly. IF you look at the lok sabha polls Congress + Jd(u) + RJD > BJP and allies in voting %. Even in this election Sena + NCP > BJP and allies. Congress + INLD > BJP Sooner or later somebody is going to combine to take on and out the BJP There was no SS greed as such. If anything they shed 19 seats. To reflect the rise of the BJP. The sena contesting numbers have consistently being coming down for close to a decade. And keep in mind the sena did give the BJP a bigger chunk of the BMC pie in 2012 to reflect their gratitude. This allowed the BJP crucial funds needed to sustain themselves in the state before Modi came to power. The congress have not relied on the gandhi family in maharashtra for decades. Even now they do have grassroots leaders such as Ashok Chavan. The thing about the Thakareys is that there are 3 of them. All of whom can outlive Modi. All of whom are in the state. The youngest of whom has inherited the fire of his grandfather. You need to think long term and establish a situation whereby you are undisputed. The BJP are not winning elections with 50% of the vote. Therefore there will always be a combination of allies regional etc who can topple them by combining. I am talking about establishing a situation in maha whereby you permanently in charge. Make it into another Guj. You look at the BJP in guj , they have won close to 50% of the vote in all elections. Why? Because there is a straight fight with the congress. Ditto MP etc. The truth is states like UP and Maharashtra are geographically spread. They will always have regional parties.

[G_B_]

I hope NCP and Congress would be regretting their height of stupidity. I can't understand, in fact no sane person can, that despite knowing their is zero chance of their winning election if they go independently, they still decided to part ways after knowing SS and BJP broke up. I mean after break-up between SS-BJP there was sniff of a chance, they should have captured that. They had a template of such successful strategy from by-elections. That's where Congress is failing country again and again.

exactly Thats the threat for the BJP despite being their weakest both these parties can still poll close to 30% of the vote combined.

[Malcolm Merlyn]

If BJP pulls out of BMC SS lose BMC.After that pathetic chaiwala ka beta comment from Thackrey BJP aint going SS way.So if BJP wins they can strenthen them selves in Maha. BJP needs to stick to alliances in Punjab n Bihar.Congress is never a good alliance partner unless its heading the alliance.They have pulled down the govt. according to their whims.The alliance of JDu RJD and Cong in bihar is a very uneasy one and may break.In UP also BSP will not sit out of elections like it did in the bye polls.So BJP have a great chance there also. BJP may control most states of west north and east India come 2014.They will fail in Bengal and Odisha btw.

[game_changerr]

^^bjp's is rising in bengal if u see voting % in ls election or bypoll result,,,,also didi is ready to oin hands with cpi/cpm to counter them shows their steep rise,,in odisa they dont have any chance because of patnaik able administration

[G_B_]

If BJP pulls out of BMC SS lose BMC.After that pathetic chaiwala ka beta comment from Thackrey BJP aint going SS way.So if BJP wins they can strenthen them selves in Maha. BJP needs to stick to alliances in Punjab n Bihar.Congress is never a good alliance partner unless its heading the alliance.They have pulled down the govt. according to their whims.The alliance of JDu RJD and Cong in bihar is a very uneasy one and may break.In UP also BSP will not sit out of elections like it did in the bye polls.So BJP have a great chance there also. BJP may control most states of west north and east India come 2014.They will fail in Bengal and Odisha btw.

they will be supported by mns.......and still be on top. If anything as per the assembly polls the sena have emerged as the number 1 party of the mumbai metrpolitan area despite the modi wave. (as per exit polls) Infact if MNS and SS combine they will control mumbai thane nashik aurangabad municipal regions. If the ncp combine with the sena and the mns they will control nearly every major municipal city in India barring Solapur (congress) and Nagpur (BJP). A tremendous financial base. People need to start thinking. Its not that simple. That chaiwala remark was also distorted. All Uddhav T meant was that anybody can become cm from a chaiwala to a person like himself. The BJP people need to calm down with their level of outrage. As far as I am aware he has even clarified his remark.

[Malcolm Merlyn]

they will be supported by mns.......and still be on top. If anything as per the assembly polls the sena have emerged as the number 1 party of the mumbai metrpolitan area despite the modi wave. (as per exit polls) Infact if MNS and SS combine they will control mumbai thane nashik aurangabad municipal regions. If the ncp combine with the sena and the mns they will control nearly every major municipal city in India barring Solapur (congress) and Nagpur (BJP). A tremendous financial base. People need to start thinking. Its not that simple. That chaiwala remark was also distorted. All Uddhav T meant was that anybody can become cm from a chaiwala to a person like himself. The BJP people need to calm down with their level of outrage. As far as I am aware he has even clarified his remark.

MNS is gong to be decimated in this election.And NCP has a strange sneaky way of being close to the power center.They have broken up with Congress and now can ally with BJP.The NCP is a far better choice in the long term than the poisonous Sena.And BJP has emerged the no.1 party in every region of Maharashtra except greater Mumbai where they are no.2(according to exit polls).Also remember any fight for BMC will now be a 5 way split,and past results wont hold much.

[Malcolm Merlyn]

^^bjp's is rising in bengal if u see voting % in ls election or bypoll result' date=',,,also didi is ready to oin hands with cpi/cpm to counter them shows their steep rise,,in odisa they dont have any chance because of patnaik able administration[/quote'] Left front wont ally with TMC.Thats like BJP and Congress allying together. BJP needs to seriously put effort in Bengal esp in places where there are large no. of Hindi speaking people.

[G_B_]

MNS is gong to be decimated in this election.And NCP has a strange sneaky way of being close to the power center.They have broken up with Congress and now can ally with BJP.The NCP is a far better choice in the long term than the poisonous Sena.And BJP has emerged the no.1 party in every region of Maharashtra except greater Mumbai where they are no.2(according to exit polls).Also remember any fight for BMC will now be a 5 way split' date='and past results wont hold much.[/quote'] not really the bjp have allied with raju shetti who is the epitome of anti ncp they do that then all three smaller parties will quit them for either the sena or the congress PS Sena are also emerging as number 1 in the konkan region. The sena have just emerged as number 1 in a 5 way fight in the assembly in mumbai.. You think polling turnout for the bmc will be higher than the assembly? If anything this 5 way split strengthens the hand of the sena in the bmc. You also think Modi is going to campaign for the BMC for BJP to sustain its numbers in the city?

[someone]

those are 4 incredibly small parties. Even in UP and Bihar BJP had extremely small parties. I am talking proper allies. There was no SS greed as such. If anything they shed 19 seats. To reflect the rise of the BJP. The sena contesting numbers have consistently being coming down for close to a decade. You need to think long term and establish a situation whereby you are undisputed. The BJP are not winning elections with 50% of the vote. Therefore there will always be a combination of allies regional etc who can topple them by combining. I am talking about establishing a situation in maha whereby you permanently in charge. Make it into another Guj. You look at the BJP in guj , they have won close to 50% of the vote in all elections. Why? Because there is a straight fight with the congress. Ditto MP etc. The truth is states like UP and Maharashtra are geographically spread. They will always have regional parties.

Disagree. Firstly, BJP in MH always wanted the allies. Even after the BJP/SS break-up, BJP went to pursue the other 4 parties. The 4 maybe relatively smaller but they play a proper and relevant role in the alliance. On SS, it was them being "adamant", which caused the breakup. They wanted BJP to run on the same seats as 20 years back, also Uddhav as CM plus compulsory 150+ seats. They took BJP for granted and wanted to "dictate" things to their greed. And even after break-up, SS targeted Modi and said many indecent things about the BJP. The cadre level relationship is certainly broken and it's up to SS to correct it. The onus is on SS, not BJP to fix things as it was them which messed things up. Of course, tactically, it's better for BJP to have SS together but as explained, the onus is on SS to fix/do that. Additional, it's important for BJP to improve itself as a party. They don't want another potential Bihar situation where the regional party had way more leverage than BJP. With the break-up, any such possibility has been avoided, a reality check is provided to all parties and BJP gains ground around MH according to exit polls.

[G_B_]

Disagree. Firstly' date=' BJP in MH always wanted the allies. Even after the BJP/SS break-up, BJP went to pursue the other 4 parties. The 4 maybe relatively smaller but they play a proper and relevant role in the alliance. On SS, it was them being "adamant", which caused the breakup. T[b']hey wanted BJP to run on the same seats as 20 years back, also Uddhav as CM plus compulsory 150+ seats. They took BJP for granted and wanted to "dictate" things to their greed. And even after break-up, SS targeted Modi and said many indecent things about the BJP. The cadre level relationship is certainly broken and it's up to SS to correct it. The onus is on SS, not BJP to fix things as it was them which messed things up. Of course, tactically, it's better for BJP to have SS together but as explained, the onus is on SS to fix/do that. Additional, it's important for BJP to improve itself as a party. They don't want another potential Bihar situation where the regional party had way more leverage than BJP. With the break-up, any such possibility has been avoided, a reality check is provided to all parties and BJP gains ground around MH according to exit polls.

20 years back the BJP contested 116 seats the sena contested 169. The BJP was offered 120 and sena 151 in 2014. other allies IE the sena was making way for the smaller allies in the mahayuti and not the BJP. The difference in seat contested was 53 in 1995 and it was 31 in 2014. As i said before the Sena has made plenty of concessions to the BJP in mumbai for the BMC elections. To allow them to build a base. Even before the Maha assembly elections, the shiv sena despite having 18 seats and being the oldest partner got 1 union berth. In comparison the SAD which got 4 seats got 1 berth. Somebody like Ram Vilas Paswan got a union cabinet gig. He is somebody who was a jonnie come lately. Where is the respect? The sena i dont think will be part of the NDA for much longer. They are better off as an opposition

[Malcolm Merlyn]

20 years back the BJP contested 116 seats the sena contested 169. The BJP was offered 120 and sena 151 in 2014. other allies IE the sena was making way for the smaller allies in the mahayuti and not the BJP. The difference in seat contested was 53 in 1995 and it was 31 in 2014. As i said before the Sena has made plenty of concessions to the BJP in mumbai for the BMC elections. To allow them to build a base. Even before the Maha assembly elections, the shiv sena despite having 18 seats and being the oldest partner got 1 union berth. In comparison the SAD which got 4 seats got 1 berth. Somebody like Ram Vilas Paswan got a union cabinet gig. He is somebody who was a jonnie come lately. Where is the respect? The sena i dont think will be part of the NDA for much longer. They are better off as an opposition

If exit polls are anything to go by BJP is going to win 120 seats with out sena.And Sena was offering them 120 seats to contest.LOL. Thackrey thought that he would keep most seats and then because of the Modi wave when the alliance wins claim the CM seat.What did he think?BJP are fools?They wont see that irrespective of Sena staying or qutting BJP would emerge as the biggest party.Well done to BJP for kicking out that poisonous Sena. And if Sena quits NDA at the center they will lose BMC. So which ally in BJP got more than 1 berth?

[Raghav_12]

20 years back the BJP contested 116 seats the sena contested 169. The BJP was offered 120 and sena 151 in 2014. other allies IE the sena was making way for the smaller allies in the mahayuti and not the BJP. The difference in seat contested was 53 in 1995 and it was 31 in 2014. As i said before the Sena has made plenty of concessions to the BJP in mumbai for the BMC elections. To allow them to build a base. Even before the Maha assembly elections, the shiv sena despite having 18 seats and being the oldest partner got 1 union berth. In comparison the SAD which got 4 seats got 1 berth. Somebody like Ram Vilas Paswan got a union cabinet gig. He is somebody who was a jonnie come lately. Where is the respect? The sena i dont think will be part of the NDA for much longer. They are better off as an opposition

How many of those ShivSena would have won if it wasn't for Modi's effect on the election? ShivSens should have read the writing on the wall. (I feel they did but giving a somebody a role of equal partner who always been a junior partner is not a sweet pill to swallow). BJP had the opportunity where they could have come out of Shiv Sena's younger brother tag and they took it. I agree that SS may have nurtured BJP's growth in Maharashtra but there is little space for sentiments in politics (you very well know how Modi himself has treated likes of Advani and Jaswant Singh). Another imp point is BJP is looking for a pan-indian image and partners like Shivsena who built their base of the agendas like Anti-South India and Anti-North Indians would definitely come in way sooner or later. So all in all BJP is better off by breaking this alliance.

[G_B_]

How many of those ShivSena would have won if it wasn't for Modi's effect on the election? ShivSens should have read the writing on the wall. (I feel they did but giving a somebody a role of equal partner who always been a junior partner is not a sweet pill to swallow). BJP had the opportunity where they could have come out of Shiv Sena's younger brother tag and they took it. I agree that SS may have nurtured BJP's growth in Maharashtra but there is little space for sentiments in politics (you very well know how Modi himself has treated likes of Advani and Jaswant Singh). Another imp point is BJP is looking for a pan-indian image and partners like Shivsena who built their base of the agendas like Anti-South India and Anti-North Indians would definitely come in way sooner or later. So all in all BJP is better off by breaking this alliance.

they won 11-12 in 2009, back then the MNS was at a high. if you use that as a base then its fair to say probably 12-13 (they would certainly have taken back Thane lok sabha seat Modi wave or not) So i can honestly say out of 18 seats 5-6 seats are due to the Modi effect. You make it sound as if the Shiv sena went from 2 to 18. Secondly Modi magic might be there. But you need to be in a position to take advantage of it. Of all the major allies for the BJP the Sena has the highest % rate of success (90%). Otherwise the SAD would have won nearly everything. The HJC in Haryana would have won all the seats they contested. Even the Telegu Dessam has a lesser strike rate than the sena.

[G_B_]

If exit polls are anything to go by BJP is going to win 120 seats with out sena.And Sena was offering them 120 seats to contest.LOL. Thackrey thought that he would keep most seats and then because of the Modi wave when the alliance wins claim the CM seat.What did he think?BJP are fools?They wont see that irrespective of Sena staying or qutting BJP would emerge as the biggest party.Well done to BJP for kicking out that poisonous Sena. And if Sena quits NDA at the center they will lose BMC. So which ally in BJP got more than 1 berth?

But thats the part of the alliance right? In 1999 the sena and bjp lost due to the BJP messing up onion prices. The whole BJP campaign in that election was mismanaged. Ironically by Nitin Gadkari at the time. You dont see The sena have a chip on its shoulder going about and saying damn we lost due to the BJP. Bal T shrugged it off. Thats the porblem with many BJP supporters. Short memories. An alliance of 25 years needs to be viewed in light of those 25 years. Its the same with a marriage. It has its ups and downs. Your going to file for divorce just cause you get a better deal going something else? Pretty poor attitude that.

[G_B_]

and quite frankly if i was the SAD, i will start preparing to fight elections alone. Amit shah does not respect "big brother" partners. After the SAD actually campaigned with gusto for the INLD, he is certainly not going to continue it. Dont make the mistake the sena made and start preparing from the get go.

[Tiger80]

and quite frankly if i was the SAD, i will start preparing to fight elections alone. Amit shah does not respect "big brother" partners. After the SAD actually campaigned with gusto for the INLD, he is certainly not going to continue it. Dont make the mistake the sena made and start preparing from the get go.

SAD had full control over jat sikh peasantry of rural Punjab and SGPC.It is not like Maharashtra where RSS headquarters are situated . BJP is seen as Party of Urban Punjabi Hindu's. If BJP is smart they will keep their alliance with SAD

[Number]

How many of those ShivSena would have won if it wasn't for Modi's effect on the election? ShivSens should have read the writing on the wall. (I feel they did but giving a somebody a role of equal partner who always been a junior partner is not a sweet pill to swallow). BJP had the opportunity where they could have come out of Shiv Sena's younger brother tag and they took it. I agree that SS may have nurtured BJP's growth in Maharashtra but there is little space for sentiments in politics (you very well know how Modi himself has treated likes of Advani and Jaswant Singh). Another imp point is BJP is looking for a pan-indian image and partners like Shivsena who built their base of the agendas like Anti-South India and Anti-North Indians would definitely come in way sooner or later. So all in all BJP is better off by breaking this alliance.

A relatively minor point but add to that dynasty politics. When Modi used to attack Rahul by calling him Shehzada, I wonder how Thackerays used to feel.

[Malcolm Merlyn]

But thats the part of the alliance right? In 1999 the sena and bjp lost due to the BJP messing up onion prices. The whole BJP campaign in that election was mismanaged. Ironically by Nitin Gadkari at the time. You dont see The sena have a chip on its shoulder going about and saying damn we lost due to the BJP. Bal T shrugged it off.

What utter tosh.BJP and SS combine did better in the LS elections held simuntaneously and ABV became the PM again.If any thing SS mismanaged Maharashtra and hence the public chose to throw them out of govt.,but they voted for them in the LS because they knew it was BJP/ABV who will lead that govt. SS is never going to come into the govt. without BJP.They need BJP more and Shah and Modi wont tolerate Thackrey's garbage.

Thats the porblem with many BJP supporters. Short memories. An alliance of 25 years needs to be viewed in light of those 25 years.

Since 1999 there have never been a huge difference in strike rate of BJP and SS in Maharashtra.So about time SS realised that they cant keep on harping the same tune.BJP is was on equal footing of SS may be higher and hence SS was in no position to demand the CM seat and such large no. of seats.

[sticky wicket]

A relatively minor point but add to that dynasty politics. When Modi used to attack Rahul by calling him Shehzada, I wonder how Thackerays used to feel.

And another relatively minor point, will the Thackerays ever contest a seat? :hmmm: Find it laugable U Thackeray wanted to be CM without democratically taking part in elections and test his worth against the electorate, more like a pussy cat then their symbolic Tiger. At least Rahul Gandhi contested a seat. :hatsoff:

[Shunya]

But thats the part of the alliance right? In 1999 the sena and bjp lost due to the BJP messing up onion prices. The whole BJP campaign in that election was mismanaged. Ironically by Nitin Gadkari at the time. You dont see The sena have a chip on its shoulder going about and saying damn we lost due to the BJP. Bal T shrugged it off. Thats the porblem with many BJP supporters. Short memories. An alliance of 25 years needs to be viewed in light of those 25 years. Its the same with a marriage. It has its ups and downs. Your going to file for divorce just cause you get a better deal going something else? Pretty poor attitude that.

You seem very bitter with BJP gaining grounds in Maharashtra...dats a surprise... This is gonna stink for a long time to come because Modi has already shown a lot of respect to Bal Thackeray and Sena and unforunately Uddhav in his ego trip could not reciprocate...no matter how u put it...BMC this that...I feel Modi and BJP would have done a splendid job if they win the Assembly on their own and Sena even with being in opposition would come out as sore loser...they should have continued in the NDA alliance for better Maharashtra & India...