Janata Parivar II

[someone]

And this Janata Party is all about safeguarding the next generation. That's the primary intact as majority of key leaders are old age and the recent LS results have left them scared for their sons/daughters future. They will fight collectively in order to secure power for their kin. The first target is to preserve power in Bihar, and then UP. And ultimately, get into some bargaining position in 2019 LS. JDU is one special case as due to Nitish's arrogance and its failed consequences, he needs to be part of this Parivar. This Janata Parivar will be hoping of more parties to join due to such pressure of saving their own government. It's a smart move as there is a big leadership space missing for the anti-BJP camp.

[Sachin=GOD]

I think it will be a formidable opponent to BJP in Bihar.

[G_B_]

UP is not electing SP back to power.BSP Congress and MIM will eat into the SP votes and JD U or JD S or RJD or INLD wont get them a new vote bank. Chautala and co. are in jail and politically in dire straits.Same with RJD and JD S.Except SP and JD U none of the parties have much of clout. Secondly once these parties merge and the old party ceases to exist people can defect as the old party is non existent. The problem with these parties is that they are all vying for similar vote banks in UP and Bihar.]No new votebank.Infact Yadavs and Kurmis may not support the combine as much as they supported RJD and JDU separately. This merger can only help one person.Nitish Kumar.But that is going to be very difficult.

I think most people will agree that UP wont be electing the SP again for a second consecutive term. Which is why MSY wants safety in numbers. The point about Kumris and Yadavs is an important one. For years the Jd(u) under Nitish was seen to be anti Yadav. Its where the BJP plan to strike. Splitting the Yadav vote. Even if they manage to get 30% of the Yadav (extended Yadav castes) vote they will cause major worries for the Janata pariwar. Which is why they are giving a prominent place of Nandkishore Yadav. The point where I disagree is that Jd(u)-RJD are going to find it difficult. IMO at present they are the alliance who will come out on top. Despite losing Manjhi. Modi waves is in decline and the BJP in the state is in factions. The Janata combine will project Nitish Kumar. Whatever we say about Nitish, he has been a clean leader not involved in scams and has brought about development to the region of Bihar. Obviously RJD is the opposite of them but many will feel Nitish will be bale to control the law and order for example. Obviously a lot can change. Seat distribution is where the key issues lay for both alliances. Clearly many in the JD(u) RJD are going to miss out. Its how they react to the rejection is where probably the election will be won or lost. This election is maybe not about the BJP gaining the initiative. Its about how a caste favoured Janata alliance can retain its shape and members. Its the Janata pariwars election to lose.

[G_B_]

And this Janata Party is all about safeguarding the next generation. That's the primary intact as majority of key leaders are old age and the recent LS results have left them scared for their sons/daughters future. They will fight collectively in order to secure power for their kin. The first target is to preserve power in Bihar, and then UP. And ultimately, get into some bargaining position in 2019 LS. JDU is one special case as due to Nitish's arrogance and its failed consequences, he needs to be part of this Parivar. This Janata Parivar will be hoping of more parties to join due to such pressure of saving their own government. It's a smart move as there is a big leadership space missing for the anti-BJP camp.

point well made.

[someone]

I think it will be a formidable opponent to BJP in Bihar.

A lot will depend of candidate selection. Remember, this Janata Parivar is primary about family politics, not caste politics. You may remember RJD in LS 2014 lost some votes due to bad candidate selection of putting their family first. And then , JDU also has lost some votes post LS, due to bad selection of Manjhi. And now with this large parivar alliance, it's only going to get more complicated. With instead of 2-3 usual candidates, only one of them getting the ticket. The way this alliance solves such dilemma and prevent internal fights over tickets will determine their success.

[G_B_]

A lot will depend of candidate selection. Remember, this Janata Parivar is primary about family politics, not caste politics. You may remember RJD in LS 2014 lost some votes due to bad candidate selection of putting their family first. And then , JDU also has lost some votes post LS, due to bad selection of Manjhi. And now with this large parivar alliance, it's only going to get more complicated. With instead of 2-3 usual candidates, only one of them getting the ticket. The way this alliance solves such dilemma and prevent internal fights over tickets will determine their success.

Nitish kumar has gone down the MLC route to placate many leaders. Especially in his Jd(u) faction.

[G_B_]

Re Papu Yadav..... I doubt he will be joining the BJP. Its HAM or staying put for him.

[Sachin=GOD]

A lot will depend of candidate selection. Remember, this Janata Parivar is primary about family politics, not caste politics. You may remember RJD in LS 2014 lost some votes due to bad candidate selection of putting their family first. And then , JDU also has lost some votes post LS, due to bad selection of Manjhi. And now with this large parivar alliance, it's only going to get more complicated. With instead of 2-3 usual candidates, only one of them getting the ticket. The way this alliance solves such dilemma and prevent internal fights over tickets will determine their success.

Yes. Agree with that. But since the merger is being done now, they have about 5-6 months to manage the situation of angry leaders losing their seats, rebels going to BJP or floating their own parties, the dynasty equations and the leadership issues (Nitish will obviously be the leader in Bihar but Lalu may not be too wiling to play second fiddle) and of course managing the joker in the pack, Manjhi. Also, I'm quite sure that Cong will want to enter into a coalition with Janata Parivar - let's see how that is handled. Nitish will, to a large extent, determine whether this coalition succeeds or not - if he can govern quietly without many controversies in the next few months (while fools like Giriraj Singh continue to spout venom and remain uncontrolled by Modi/Shah) then I think Janata Parivar will surely have an upper hand irrespective of the conflicts arising out of merging such big parties.

[sticky wicket]

off-topic general question... i) Does/Will Kejriwal and AAP ever take on Mulayam & SP and Lalu & RJD in UP and Bihar? Or have they ever? ii) Aren't these two (Mulayam & Lalu) the very definition of what is wrong with our political system which AAP is supposedly fighting? iii) And considering these two states are critical to India advancing forward and account for 25% of nation's population, AAP should be at the forefront fighting in these two states taking on these two rotten parties. All I read is about infighting and squabbles with what Modi and BJP do.

[Sachin=GOD]

off-topic general question... i) Does/Will Kejriwal and AAP ever take on Mulayam & SP and Lalu & RJD in UP and Bihar? Or have they ever? ii) Aren't these two (Mulayam & Lalu) the very definition of what is wrong with our political system which AAP is supposedly fighting? iii) And considering these two states are critical to India advancing forward and account for 25% of nation's population, AAP should be at the forefront fighting in these two states taking on these two rotten parties. All I read is about infighting and squabbles with what Modi and BJP do.

I would not be surprised if AAP ends up supporting the Janata Parivar in Bihar in the name of 'secularism' or 'keeping BJP out'.

[someone]

The point where I disagree is that Jd(u)-RJD are going to find it difficult. IMO at present they are the alliance who will come out on top. Despite losing Manjhi. Modi waves is in decline and the BJP in the state is in factions. The Janata combine will project Nitish Kumar. This election is maybe not about the BJP gaining the initiative. Its about how a caste favoured Janata alliance can retain its shape and members. Its the Janata pariwars election to lose.

You forgotten about 10 years of anti-incumbency. If it was BJP in power for 10 years, then I would also agreed with you that JDU-RJD alliance will come out top. But it's latter who is facing it. So this Bihar elections, there are more challenges for JDU-RJD than BJP. But this Janta Parivar is smart. They know they are facing a large incumbency factor which they cannot do much about. Instead, they are trying to shift the debate to centre BJP's 1 year of anti-incumbency. So this election's key battle is between two different anti-incumbency, 1 year old of BJP's and 10 year old of JDU. The Parivar will target BJP on the national level and will be supported by the media. Don't except headlines about convicted Laloo, jungle raj, JDU scams. BJP cannot get trapped into just defending itself while RJD-JDU being the aggressor party. Thus, it's important for BJP to build their own channels to broadcast the shortcomings of Bihar government and challenge them on state issues.

[Sachin=GOD]

You forgotten about 10 years of anti-incumbency. If it was BJP in power for 10 years, then I would also agreed with you that JDU-RJD alliance will come out top. But it's latter who is facing it. So this Bihar elections, there are more challenges for JDU-RJD than BJP. But this Janta Parivar is smart. They know they are facing a large incumbency factor which they cannot do much about. Instead, they are trying to shift the debate to centre BJP's 1 year of anti-incumbency. So this election's key battle is between two different anti-incumbency, 1 year old of BJP's and 10 year old of JDU. The Parivar will target BJP on the national level and will be supported by the media. Don't except headlines about convicted Laloo, jungle raj, JDU scams. BJP cannot get trapped into just defending itself while RJD-JDU being the aggressor party. Thus, it's important for BJP to build their own channels to broadcast the shortcomings of Bihar government and challenge them on state issues.

The problem for BJP in broadcasting the shortcomings of Nitish is that for most part of the 10 years, BJP was a partner in the Govt so they have to tread carefully while criticizing lest they harm their own record.

[Khalpat]

off-topic general question... i) Does/Will Kejriwal and AAP ever take on Mulayam & SP and Lalu & RJD in UP and Bihar? Or have they ever?

It is not possible as this will be political suicide for AAP. They have already seen what has happened after their alliance with Congress.

ii) Aren't these two (Mulayam & Lalu) the very definition of what is wrong with our political system which AAP is supposedly fighting?

No, not entirely. These two are the very definitioon of what is wrong with voting pattern of people and how much caste based politics had hurt India. These two also shows that how pathetic two national parties, Congress and BJP had been in these two states.

iii) And considering these two states are critical to India advancing forward and account for 25% of nation's population, AAP should be at the forefront fighting in these two states taking on these two rotten parties. All I read is about infighting and squabbles with what Modi and BJP do.

I agree totally, atleast UP is one state which should be the next target of AAP.

[someone]

off-topic general question... i) Does/Will Kejriwal and AAP ever take on Mulayam & SP and Lalu & RJD in UP and Bihar? Or have they ever? ii) Aren't these two (Mulayam & Lalu) the very definition of what is wrong with our political system which AAP is supposedly fighting? iii) And considering these two states are critical to India advancing forward and account for 25% of nation's population, AAP should be at the forefront fighting in these two states taking on these two rotten parties. All I read is about infighting and squabbles with what Modi and BJP do.

Their spokeperson were openly praising JDU/RJD on live debates and hoping they get inspired by the Delhi elections to defeat BJP in Bihar. And not to forget, AAP got the support of MIM in Delhi elections and also they had alliance with Congress so obviously, they are gonna support any party against BJP. And you can forget Mulayam and Lalu first, but will AAP ever take on Sonia Gandhi? AAP is a lot similar to SP, who primary believes in populist schemes and is dictated by one person.

[someone]

The problem for BJP in broadcasting the shortcomings of Nitish is that for most part of the 10 years' date=' BJP was a partner in the Govt so they have to tread carefully while criticizing lest they harm their own record.[/quote'] There is a lot of changes happened in last 2 years since BJP were not part of government. The key thing is the opposition should set the debate. If the ruling party sets the debate, they have already won the fight. The opposition being BJP while the ruling party being JDU/RJD. They cannot allow ruling party to set the topic and the agenda on the election topics. In LS 2014, BJP did not get bogged down by Congress and their election agenda about commualism. They created their own development narrative and targeted on Congress shortcomings on developing the nation and that was why they won so handsomely. It's about setting the question to which the public should vote upon. It's not caste but about the message given to the public. That's the biggest challenge given the MSM is hell bent on defeating BJP.

[bulbul]

Caste politics in Bihar: RJD workers 'purify' Ram Manohar Lohia's statue after Manjhi garlands it

Patna: Caste politics continues to dominate Bihar as Rashtriya Janata Dal workers performed a purification ritual after former chief minister Jitan Ram Manjhi garlanded the statue of freedom fighter Ram Manohar Lohia in Supaul. The Janata Dal United has hit out at the RJD for the move. "We condemn this move. Ram Manohar Lohia was a mass leader. Everyone has the right to garland Lohia's statue," said JDU chief Sharad Yadav. Reacting to the reports, Manjhi also said that such acts should be condemned. Manjhi is a prominant leader of Bihar's Maha-Dalit community.

http://ibnlive.in.com/news/caste-politics-in-bihar-rjd-workers-purify-ram-manohar-lohias-statue-after-manjhi-garlands-it/538234-37-64.html

[G_B_]

thats what you get with the RJD their cadre are wild and lack discipline.

[Khalpat]

This is where BJP and Manjhi can hit the RJD- JDU alliance. Muslims are not going to vote for them, give tickets to big names in Yadav community and divide their vote, use Manjhi and Ramvilas Paswan to get lower caste votes.

[Malcolm Merlyn]

Lalu's star is in decline and JDU BJP took advantage and got the Yadav votes earlier on basis of a developmental agenda.Nitish went full retard on Lalu and now by combining with him be is opening himself to attacks. Also it remains to be seen what Congress does.They will go solo and eat into votes of Janta parivar. I feel we may be reading too much into the caste equations of Bihar,the last 3 elections proved that a lot of cross caste voting has begun and people are finally voting for developmental agenda.

[G_B_]

I dont think the congress will go solo. The Congress want to stop the BJP juggernaut at all costs and end up on the winning "side". Any win they will take at the moment even if it means Lalu and Nitish chuck them out of the winning alliance post elections. I mean they won 4 seats last time. Even if they get to contest 20 seats with the combine of Jd(u) and RJD they will get more than 4 seats IMO. While local Bihar congress leaders might not want to bend down that much to Nitish and Lalu high command can see the national picture in which they want to project the BJP as coming down to earth and a normal party. If that means sacrificing Bihar so be it.