Janata Parivar II

[Texan]

Congress basically has no option left. Go alone and run the risk of being wiped out totally, which after Delhi elections would be a huge psychological setback to their cadre. Going with Laloo and Nitish, even if they get 10-15 seats would mean that at least they have a chance of winning in all those seats. It will still mean that there will be massive defections out of Congress, but it is better than getting wiped out completely.

[Malcolm Merlyn]

I dont think the congress will go solo. The Congress want to stop the BJP juggernaut at all costs and end up on the winning "side". Any win they will take at the moment even if it means Lalu and Nitish chuck them out of the winning alliance post elections. I mean they won 4 seats last time. Even if they get to contest 20 seats with the combine of Jd(u) and RJD they will get more than 4 seats IMO. While local Bihar congress leaders might not want to bend down that much to Nitish and Lalu high command can see the national picture in which they want to project the BJP as coming down to earth and a normal party. If that means sacrificing Bihar so be it.

If congress goes for an alliance it will mean surrendering their role as a national party and forgetting any chance of revival and return to power.The only chance Congress has of revival is by dumping these regional parties and going solo.

Congress basically has no option left. Go alone and run the risk of being wiped out totally, which after Delhi elections would be a huge psychological setback to their cadre. Going with Laloo and Nitish, even if they get 10-15 seats would mean that at least they have a chance of winning in all those seats. It will still mean that there will be massive defections out of Congress, but it is better than getting wiped out completely.

[Khalpat]

Congress basically has no option left. Go alone and run the risk of being wiped out totally, which after Delhi elections would be a huge psychological setback to their cadre. Going with Laloo and Nitish, even if they get 10-15 seats would mean that at least they have a chance of winning in all those seats. It will still mean that there will be massive defections out of Congress, but it is better than getting wiped out completely.

BJP, in both UP and Bihar have almost 30% of the votes which are not going anywhere. The problem is remaining 70%, if RJD+JDU+COngress combine then it will be a disaster for Modi. BJP will not be able to get even 20% of the seats but at the same time this will make sure that Congress will never ever be back in any of these states. But if its a triangular fight between BJP, Congress, and Janta Pariwar, BJP will benefit the most as the remaining 70% voters will split and by correct choice of contestants, BJP + LJP + Manjhi can easily win. Same logic applies for UP also.

[Malcolm Merlyn]

BJP, in both UP and Bihar have almost 30% of the votes which are not going anywhere. The problem is remaining 70%, if RJD+JDU+COngress combine then it will be a disaster for Modi. BJP will not be able to get even 20% of the seats but at the same time this will make sure that Congress will never ever be back in any of these states. But if its a triangular fight between BJP, Congress, and Janta Pariwar, BJP will benefit the most as the remaining 70% voters will split and by correct choice of contestants, BJP + LJP + Manjhi can easily win. Same logic applies for UP also.

UP is different because there you have BSP also who will be there.Plus Congress and Ajit Singh will fight together in UP. Bihar is the trouble state.

[Khalpat]

UP is different because there you have BSP also who will be there.Plus Congress and Ajit Singh will fight together in UP. Bihar is the trouble state.

It all depends on voters. What exactly is the undercurrent? If there is anti incumbency against BJP and Modi at centre, the voters are smart and they will not let their vote split. If their is anti incumbency against the state governments like SP, it will be a tough fight between BSP and BJP. What I have noticed with the limited talks I had with people is their is disappointment with state government. Even among minorities right now their is no major dissatisfaction with Central government. This doesn't mean that they are going to vote for BJP but this also mean that unlike post 2002 they are not going to vote for the best opposition of BJP. Two things BJP will have to do, control people like Adityanath and Sadhvi's and find some one having leadership caliber like Mayawati.

[G_B_]

If congress goes for an alliance it will mean surrendering their role as a national party and forgetting any chance of revival and return to power.The only chance Congress has of revival is by dumping these regional parties and going solo.

Congress have been dud in Bihar for close to 20 years now. They only won a few seats thanks to RJD. Lets be frank the BJP too are not present in many states such as Kerela Tn etc. The way India is going being a national party means being probably a major force in 5-6 big states. (population more than 30 million) with possible alliances in about 10 more. I think the congress aim for now is to preserve Assam and Kerala. They lose both those then they are left only with Karnataka. Bihar is not that much of importance for them.

[G_B_]

Re UP never say never but I doubt BSP will ally with the SP. They have allied with SP in the past but after MSY tried to whack Mayawati i am guessing that alliance is a lot harder at materialising than Jd(u)-RJD For 2017 atleast the SP will view it as being, we have been in power for 5 years and enjoyed the perks. Lets sit the next 5 years out if at all. Keep in mind SP won the 2012 election with 29.5% of the vote. Whats probably going to happen is that BJP will ally with 3-4 extremely small parties such as Apna Dal and boost the overall alliance vote to about 35%. I can see the BJP say contesting 350 seats and leaving about 53 seats to the smaller outfits. You look how Shah operates in big states, In maharashtra they allied with RPI SSS and Vinayak Mete. In Bihar they are allying with Paswan and that Khushwaha party. So in UP as well expect them to ally with smaller parties who have regional pockets.

[Malcolm Merlyn]

Congress have been dud in Bihar for close to 20 years now. They only won a few seats thanks to RJD. Lets be frank the BJP too are not present in many states such as Kerela Tn etc. The way India is going being a national party means being probably a major force in 5-6 big states. (population more than 30 million) with possible alliances in about 10 more. I think the congress aim for now is to preserve Assam and Kerala. They lose both those then they are left only with Karnataka. Bihar is not that much of importance for them.

How many seats will they get in alliance with Janta?Hardly anything.

[G_B_]

How many seats will they get in alliance with Janta?Hardly anything.

better than contesting all and getting 4 seats no? I guess high command want to see how things work out. For all we know the Congress might fight 2019 in alliance with the Janata pariwar for the lok sabha elections only. Works in Haryana Karnataka and Bihar along with UP. I can see big problems for the BJP if they ally in Haryana and Bihar especially. The BJP needs to insulate itself with partners of their own. There are two modes of the congress, one is winning for itself mode and the other is BJP denial mode. Bihar elections will have ramifications for national politics. The BJP lose in Bihar then they need to start looking for alliance partners wherever possible or needed. It will weaken the BJP as a national party but if they manage to form government again in 2019 there is a good chance the Congress will fracture with permanent ramifications.

[someone]

You look how Shah operates in big states, In maharashtra they allied with RPI SSS and Vinayak Mete. In Bihar they are allying with Paswan and that Khushwaha party. So in UP as well expect them to ally with smaller parties who have regional pockets.

They do have alliance with Apna Dal in UP. Helped them well in LS 2014. All the parties will need allies if they want to win such big states (UP, Bihar) currently. Not just BJP.

[G_B_]

They do have alliance with Apna Dal in UP. Helped them well in LS 2014. All the parties will need allies if they want to win such big states (UP, Bihar) currently. Not just BJP.

I know they have an alliance with the apna dal Probably need to add a party or two to them in different regions. nobody said it was a bad strategy...... TDP for example used a small party in that state the BJP to tilt the balance in its favour. Sometimes these small parties add a lot to the main party in terms of gains.

[Sachin=GOD]

Apna Dal is having its own internal troubles within the family. Might be a split in the party coming up.

[someone]

I know they have an alliance with the apna dal Probably need to add a party or two to them in different regions. nobody said it was a bad strategy...... TDP for example used a small party in that state the BJP to tilt the balance in its favour. Sometimes these small parties add a lot to the main party in terms of gains.

Like who? There are past members like RLD, RPD, RSP. That's all I can think about for UP. Ultimately, BJP should hope to get parties to merge with them. Not just alliances. I do remember they wanted merger with Apna Dal but Apna Dal just wanted an alliance. In the meantime, BJP should continue to accept members from other parties. Not every party chairperson wants to ally with BJP but certainly some of their party members would want to join BJP. BJP needs to target them.

[Sachin=GOD]

Like who? There are past members like RLD, RPD, RSP. That's all I can think about for UP. Ultimately, BJP should hope to get parties to merge with them. Not just alliances. I do remember they wanted merger with Apna Dal but Apna Dal just wanted an alliance. In the meantime, BJP should continue to accept members from other parties. Not every party chairperson wants to ally with BJP but certainly some of their party members would want to join BJP. BJP needs to target them.

RLD is all but done. Others are even smaller and even more insignificant. As for accepting members from other parties - it has had a very negative effect on UP BJP in general - a lot of outsiders being brought in have serious criminal cases (some are Mafia Dons) and they join and immediately get ticket while workers/leaders who have worked for a long time are totally ignored. It just can't work in the long run.

[G_B_]

Like who? There are past members like RLD, RPD, RSP. That's all I can think about for UP. Ultimately, BJP should hope to get parties to merge with them. Not just alliances. I do remember they wanted merger with Apna Dal but Apna Dal just wanted an alliance. In the meantime, BJP should continue to accept members from other parties. Not every party chairperson wants to ally with BJP but certainly some of their party members would want to join BJP. BJP needs to target them.

Somebody will emerge. The way things are going for the BSP probably one of its splinter factions. For all we know Amar Singh might refloat his party and contest.

[someone]

RLD is all but done. Others are even smaller and even more insignificant. As for accepting members from other parties - it has had a very negative effect on UP BJP in general - a lot of outsiders being brought in have serious criminal cases (some are Mafia Dons) and they join and immediately get ticket while workers/leaders who have worked for a long time are totally ignored. It just can't work in the long run.

That's politics. It was the same strategy of getting members from other parties in UP LS 2014 which made BJP win good seats. As there are many seats which BJP has never won and don't have any real base in many constituencies. So for such seats, you need to get members from other parties. Additional, BJP in both UP/Bihar don't have many strong ground leaders. A lot of the blame goes to Advani who never really groom new leaders during such tenure. So BJP today aren't in a very strong position to select members. It happens with every party. The most important thing is to make sure key leadership posts stays with those loyal workers/leaders.

[G_B_]

RLD is all but done. Others are even smaller and even more insignificant. As for accepting members from other parties - it has had a very negative effect on UP BJP in general - a lot of outsiders being brought in have serious criminal cases (some are Mafia Dons) and they join and immediately get ticket while workers/leaders who have worked for a long time are totally ignored. It just can't work in the long run.

I dont think RLD is all but done. The Jat reservation issue seems to be angle they are going for. Worth about 2-3% of the popular vote concentrated in one region. Remains to be seen if he will ally with the BJP considering the government does not want to give Jats reservation.

[G_B_]

RJD parliamentarian revolts over merger

Patna: The Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) headed by Lalu Prasad has plunged into serious trouble over the issue of a merger of six parties of the erstwhile Janata family. A senior party parliamentarian Rajesh Ranjan, popularly known as Pappu Yadav, has revolted against the party leadership and also threatened to quit if the merger takes place. He alleged the party leaders were being humiliated in the name of a merger. The RJD has four members in the Lok Sabha. “I am totally against the merger and will quit the day it formally takes place,” Yadav, who represents Madhepura seat in the parliament, told a rally in Katihar district on Tuesday evening. He alleged the RJD chief was opting for the coalition since the latter knew he could not become the chief minister again. The RJD chief has been disqualified from contesting elections after being convicted by the court in the million dollar fodder scam. Yadav also took potshot at his party boss for promoting what he termed as “dynastic politics”. “He is trying to promote dynastic politics saying a son is the natural heir to his father. He must understand this is not a monarchy but democracy where such issues are settled by the voters,” Yadav said. He further attacked the RJD chief describing him as a “Janus-faced” politician. “Those opposing Narendra Modi in public have been regularly inviting him to family functions,” Yadav said, in an oblique reference to Prasad who had invited Modi during the wedding reception of his youngest daughter Raj Laxami. Modi also attended the Tilak ceremony of Mulayam Singh Yadav’s grand nephew Tej Pratap with whom the marriage of Prasad’s daughter was solemnised. Yadav at his rallies has been constantly opposing the proposed merger of his party while openly favouring former chief minister Jitan Ram Manjhi who, he said, represents the same deprived class, which is the core vote base of the RJD. “How can this merger be complete then without Manjhi?” he asks.

http://gulfnews.com/news/asia/india/india-rjd-parliamentarian-revolts-over-merger-1.1489069 A drama for more influence within the new party? or is Pappu yadav making his move inorder to become the undisputed Yadav leader in Bihar? I am no expert on Bihar politics but if Pappu yadav joins Manjhi to merge with HAM then he is going to make a big dent in the RJD vote base.

[Texan]

Typically when party A merges with party B, their total voteshare is never the sum of (voteshare of A + voteshare of B). It is most likely lower than that. Many "A" voters won't like "B" and vice versa. Pappu Yadav and Manjhi are looking to cash in that difference. From BJP perspective, this will be good news too. The more cornered the fight, the better their chances.

[G_B_]

^ provided he leaves...