Janata Parivar II

[G_B_]

so what happens to the congress if these two decide to split the 243 seats evenly... They may decide that rebellion from within the party is much more disastrous to their shape and activities than gaining votes from giving seats to the congress.

[Sachin=GOD]

Bihar elections will be held sometime in September-October: CEC to PTI. So really not much time left. BJP needs to finalize its candidates as soon as possible and encourage as many rebels from RJD/JDU, especially Manjhi and Pappu Yadav, as it can. Bihar will be a really tough battle because of Janata Parivar joining hands. BJP just can't waste any more time. Another thing is the leadership issue - many contenders have started to emerge - a decision regarding this should be taken soon otherwise the election will be fought by a state unit divided among camps.

[G_B_]

i think nearly every political outfit in bihar from Paswan to Congress will have 243 candidates in mind with back ups. The BJP has identified its candidates. 91 sitting (now reduced due to bypolls) plus the independents supporting them. So realistically BJP needs to be sure of finding the best candidate in about 100 more seats. But they need to hold off till a month to go before announcing. If you declare too early you wont get good rebels to contest on your ticket. Does not stop you from organising strategy etc and cadre flooding in from all over the place.

[G_B_]

Expelled RJD MP Pappu Yadav floats new party

PATNA: Lok Sabha member Rajesh Ranjan alias Pappu Yadav, who was expelled by the RJD for six years for anti-party activities, on Sunday launched a new political outfit — Jan Kranti Adhikar Morcha. "We have decided to launch a new political outfit for a third alternative in Bihar's politics," Pappu Yadav, the Lok Sabha member from Madhepura, told media persons here. He said the new party would be different from Lalu Prasad's Rashtriya Janata Dal and the Janata Dal-United of Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar. He claimed that hundreds of workers and leaders of the RJD, who felt ignored and sidelined, would join his party Pappu Yadav said his party will also contest the assembly polls. Earlier this month, former chief minister Jitan Ram Manjhi had also launched his new party, the Hindustan Awami Morcha, which he said will contest all 243 assembly seats in the coming polls.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Expelled-RJD-MP-Pappu-Yadav-floats-new-party/articleshow/47319368.cms

[G_B_]

the reports i am getting is 20% of RJD cadre and members will follow him into the new party. Could be more potentially more if they tie up with Manjhi. Surprised nobody in MSM is reporting on this potentially major news.

[Sachin=GOD]

Good. Though it would be better if Manjhi and Pappu Yadav go their separate ways - that way both would separately cut RJD/JDU's votes. If they get together they could be in a situation to get too much bargaining power post elections - not good for BJP as neither of them is really reliable.

[someone]

Bihar is the most interesting state in India. Nobody really knows what is happening presently nor can forecast the future. Manjhi and Pappu forming new parties would never been thought 5 months ago. There is still 5 more months till election so many shocking things could be expected. There are some reports that JDU is opening some back-channel negotiations with BJP. That seems to be Nitish back-up plan if he feels bullied by RJD/SP.

[Sachin=GOD]

Bihar is the most interesting state in India. Nobody really knows what is happening presently nor can forecast the future. Manjhi and Pappu forming new parties would never been thought 5 months ago. There is still 5 more months till election so many shocking things could be expected. There are some reports that JDU is opening some back-channel negotiations with BJP. That seems to be Nitish back-up plan if he feels bullied by RJD/SP.

Recently there were reports that RSS was encouraging talks with Nitish so I won't be surprised if back channel talks are going on. Nitish could go to polls with an alliance with RJD rather than merging with them so as to keep JDU's options open post polls :hmmm:

[G_B_]

I have too heard that Nitish is in back channel talks with BJP. The reason the BJP too appear to be keen or at-least peddling the rumour is because Paswan and Khushwaha are set to demand something like 50 seats each. The big problem (and everybody knows it) there is just no way the BJP is going to contest only 100 seats like when they were partners before. At the very least Nitish will have to fight on an even basis of 120 seats each. Thats a best case scenario for him. I am sure Shah will say to nitish you now contest 100 we will contest 143.

[G_B_]

Recently there were reports that RSS was encouraging talks with Nitish so I won't be surprised if back channel talks are going on. Nitish could go to polls with an alliance with RJD rather than merging with them so as to keep JDU's options open post polls :hmmm:

i feel that will happen. More then even the BJP Nitish is afraid Manjhi will claim the JD(u) symbol. It makes no tactical sense for RJD and Nitish leave their symbols behind. Many people will vote for Manjhi on the basis of voting for Nitish As far as post polls go, Nitish can very well prove his point by winning many seats and then have the BJP as a coalition partner. Same can be said for the BJP. They can very well ally with Paswan and Khushwaha and dump them both for the Jd(u).

[G_B_]

and as far as Pappu and Manjhi go, i feel there will be an alliance. Pappu's vote is concentrated in 3-4 districts while Manjhi is more spread through the state. It is in pappu's interests to top up his vote with manjhi in his supposed strongholds (only the outcome will tell if those were his strongholds or not) Pappu IMO has more than gain than manjhi in an alliance. If i were manjhi i will bargain for a few seats on Pappu's turf in addition to contesting all reserved seats.

[Sachin=GOD]

i feel that will happen. More then even the BJP Nitish is afraid Manjhi will claim the JD(u) symbol. It makes no tactical sense for RJD and Nitish leave their symbols behind. Many people will vote for Manjhi on the basis of voting for Nitish As far as post polls go, Nitish can very well prove his point by winning many seats and then have the BJP as a coalition partner. Same can be said for the BJP. They can very well ally with Paswan and Khushwaha and dump them both for the Jd(u).

I said this long time back - giving up the party name and symbol would be absolutely foolish. They have worked long and hard to create their parties and now giving all that name recognition for a merger which may or may not work would be a really bad decision.

[G_B_]

I said this long time back - giving up the party name and symbol would be absolutely foolish. They have worked long and hard to create their parties and now giving all that name recognition for a merger which may or may not work would be a really bad decision.

exactly you build up a brand its not good sense to chuck it to somebody else free of charge so close to the elections. If you look at the new proposed symbol, its basically the same samajwadi symbol with add ons. So the samajwadi party is losing nothing. Chautala and Jd(s) have time on their side as their elections are a far away with nobody major else to claim them.

[someone]

There are logical reasons why both JDU and RJD would want to contest as alliance than merge together. Bihar is the most illiterate state in India and a election in just 5 months under a new party flag if merged would confuse many voters. This lack of time is one issue. Another issue is if this merger is into a group called Janta Parivar or simply a merger into the existing Sawajwati Party? I would say it is the latter, this aren't a true merger but just a upgrade for Sawajwati Party. Smartly played by Mulayum... No wonder Nitish is nervous. Mulayum is the most selfish politician in our country, as he only can think about his family. And Laloo is now part of his family. Thus, SP & RJD will dominate the proceedings and leave JDU second fiddle.

[G_B_]

new rumour Lalu ready to reach out to Manjhi and fight the elections with HAM most likely a move to get a favourable seat deal with nitish

[Texan]

new rumour Lalu ready to reach out to Manjhi and fight the elections with HAM most likely a move to get a favourable seat deal with nitish

That is Laloo just being Laloo. He will shake hands with Nitish and then irk him behind his back. Nitish should have seen this coming. Perhaps Nitish should use the Pappu Yadav card to trump the Manjhi card Laloo is using.

[dial_100]

^ Nitish deserves this totally. He has asked for it. Initially I felt bad. I wanted him to be part of this NDA govt. But now I have moved on. I hope he learns his lesson.

[G_B_]

This entire anti BJP plank depends on how they manage to share the seats. As i have said before, in this dance of the pariwar either Nitish will be finished or Lalu will be finished regardless of any of them winning or losing. Long term one will try to leverage the other out. Only recently Nitish kumar welcomed yadav leader http://www.nyoooz.com/ranchi/110264/jd-u-on-the-back-foot-for-inducting-ex-don-to-boost-election-prospects So clearly even Nitish is trying to dilute Lalu within the Janata Priwar alliance.

[G_B_]

Question mark on Janata Parivar merger as Nitish Kumar skips meet

Putting a question mark on the 'Janata Parivar' merger, Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar on Friday skipped a crucial meeting called to iron out the differences with RJD chief Lalu Prasad, who mooted the idea of roping in Jitan Ram Manjhi, a known Kumar detractor, in the anti-BJP alliance. Kumar, who was in Delhi, sent JD(U) president Sharad Yadav for talks with Lalu and Samajwadi Party chief Mulayam Singh Yadav, who has been designated as the leader of the proposed entity after a formal merger of six 'Janata Parivar' outfits. Kumar's aides said he had undergone a minor eye surgery and advised rest.

http://www.dnaindia.com/india/report-question-mark-on-janata-parivar-merger-as-nitish-kumar-skips-meet-2088253

[G_B_]

Is Nitish Kumar working on a new Bihar poll strategy that excludes Laloo and Mulayam?

The Janata Dal (United) leader is considering allying with the Congress and Left parties and leaving out Rashtriya Janata Dal, say his party colleagues. Rashtriya Janata Dal’s Lalu Prasad Yadav and Samajwadi Party’s Mulayam Singh Yadav are not the only ones having second thoughts about the merger of Janata Parivar factions. As it happens, Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar is also keeping his options open. The Janata Dal (United) leader has begun drafting an alternative alliance strategy for the Bihar assembly elections later this year that would have him ally with the Congress and the Left parties, and leave out the Rashtriya Janata Dal. Janata Dal (United) insiders maintain that Nitish Kumar came up with this idea and decided to start negotiations with the Congress because of Lalu Prasad Yadav’s insistence on not projecting him as the chief ministerial candidate. The Bihar chief minister, they say, will initiate talks with the Left, including the Communist Party of India, after a deal has been struck with the Congress. The idea of Nitish Kumar’s alternative alliance may suit the Congress too. According to officials in the Congress, party vice-president Rahul Gandhi is not in favour of becoming part of any coalition that has RJD as a prominent member. “Not only would the alliance suffer from an image problem in case the RJD is prominently placed in it, there would also be a very small number of seats that could be left for the Congress,” said a senior Congress leader. “These possibilities had in fact forced the party to chart out a way independent of the regional players in Bihar. That problem won’t arise if we go to polls along with Nitish Kumar and Left parties.” These developments may well explain why Nitish Kumar missed a meeting of the leaders of Janata Parivar factions in Delhi on Friday even though he was in the national capital. (His aides attributed the absence to a “minor eye surgery”.) Caste calculus Apart from Lalu Prasad Yadav’s adamance, the other reason for Nitish Kumar’s extraordinary move to stitch up a new alliance could be the realities of Bihar politics: it is generally agreed that a majority of upper castes cast ballot to keep RJD out of power and a majority of Muslims do it to defeat the BJP. Neither of them has any major beef with Nitish Kumar. As chief minister, Nitish Kumar has received wide acceptability among the Most Backward Classes and Mahadalits (the poorest among Dalits), the two social categories he has particularly courted over the last decade. Even among minorities and upper castes, he arguably has more acceptability than any one other leader of the state. From the viewpoint of JD(U), its prospects of luring a substantial chunk of upper castes – most of whom reportedly voted for the BJP in last year’s Lok Sabha elections – could get hurt if it fights the election in alliance with the RJD. On the other hand, if it stays away from Lalu Yadav’s party, its chances of hauling in these votes could increase, particularly because the BJP relies largely on Other Backward Class faces in the state and the sheen of the Modi government at the Centre is fading. JD(U) insiders feel that Muslims, who cast their lot with the RJD-Congress alliance in the Lok Sabha elections, may root for Nitish Kumar as well if the Congress leaves Lalu Prasad and switches sides. In a three-corner contest, they say, the JD(U)-Congress-Left alliance may be better poised to defeat the BJP than the RJD, whose Yadav vote base is slowly being dented by the saffron party. Tectonic shifts Leaders in the JD(U) and Congress further claim that the alternative alliance could pave way for a new social alignment by seriously affecting both the RJD and the BJP – the former may lose its Muslim vote and the latter a significant chunk of its upper caste base. Muslims account for nearly 16% of Bihar’s population and are said to have contributed a major portion of the 20.8% vote share the RJD garnered in the last Lok Sabha elections in the state. Bihar’s four upper castes – Brahmins, Thakurs, Bhumihars and Kayasthas – account for around 15% of the population and formed a significant part of the 29% vote share the BJP received. In the Lok Sabha elections, the JD(U) received 15.8% of all votes in the state and the Congress around 9%. It would be a tectonic shift in case they together succeed to produce a different result in the Assembly elections in September-October this year.

http://scroll.in/article/729395/is-nitish-kumar-working-on-a-new-bihar-poll-strategy-that-excludes-laloo-and-mulayam I guess Nitish's thinking is that muslims will dump RJD for his Congress-CPM-Jd(u) alliance to keep the BJP out. At the same time upper castes wont mind voting for this combo hurting the BJP. I doubt this combo will win the elections. But it makes sense long term to be honest. Its a stable alliance in which one party is the leader and the other parties are junior. Still think its a means of getting more seats from the RJD. I think both Nitish and Lalu know any combo in which these two are not tied up will lose to the BJP alliance. This move does suit the congress as well. In the Jd(u) RJD coalition they would eventually have been pushed out and marginalised. This is a long term coalition in which they can build a base to regain themselves in Bihar. However it does not bode well for their "stop BJP at all costs" strategy which needs immediate sacrifices. This just might be the first key decision Pappu has to make. Does he marginalise a potential future vs stopping an adversary now (which is not guaranteed as well) I feel this combo should get about 30% of the popular vote.