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Posted
^you have a doubt as to whether EU referendum will happen?
it depends what Cameron negotiates from Merkel. As i said he wants what norway and switzerland currently enjoy with Europe. A relationship in which they have access to the common market and retain control of everything else. Ie a purely commercial relationship. The problem for Cameron is, Norway has oil which europe badly needs. Switzerland is right in the middle of europe. It would be deeply impractical. These countries also negotiated their relations well in the 80s and 90s. That was a different europe with a balance between France and Germany. France is weak now and its Germany calling the shots with a powerful leader. At a time when the Greeks are probably odds to to be chucked out i doubt Merkel is going to compromise on anything else. She will tell Cameron either your out or you are in. You cant have this middle ground. The city of london which has its brokerages etc is a major centre for trading in eruos. A UK out of europe means all euro based trade will move to Frankfurt or Paris. The city of London and the financial sector have been historical backers of the conservatives. Cameron will negotiate and take something (if at all) back to his backbenchers . If they accept what he has gained there wont be referendum. If they reject it outright and say its not enough there will be a referendum. Which is most likely to be defeated as the SNP Lib dems and Labour are all pro europe. As are significant sections of the conservative party. So Cameron will rely on labour to do his work for him. If i had to guess a in out referendum would be 55-45 in favour of staying.
Posted

they may ask but its upto cameron to give them one. I dont think he is stupid enough to grant them one considering he has already given them one. If i was him i would say i will give you incentives to stay but sorry no referendum for the next 20-25 years. You cant keep on asking when you have asked in 2014. Its barely been a year. Re the in/out referendum. I feel UK will vote to stay in.

Posted

Brilliant result in Turkey. Erdogan was becoming more and more powerful with every passing day. Now hopefully a grand coalition of opposition parties will prevent him from going for fresh elections.

Posted

its triggered a run in the emerging markets and comes at the worst time for their economy. Turkey was already one of the worst placed emerging markets. High private debt to currency reserves ratio

Posted
its triggered a run in the emerging markets and comes at the worst time for their economy. Turkey was already one of the worst placed emerging markets. High private debt to currency reserves ratio
Erdogan needs to go for Turkey to progress.
Posted
Erdogan needs to go for Turkey to progress.
its the business cycle This article sums up Turkey's plight in terms of the economy http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9a7023b8-0dbb-11e5-9a65-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3cZhtYaCx Quite frankly the model of the AKP party under Erdogen is exactly what the BJP needs to emulate. 13 years and despite a vote against his party still the largest party in parliament by quite some margin. 580f7180-0dcb-11e5-aa7b-00144feabdc0.img The problem they face in terms of their exports is just like India they are heavily reliant on the EU economy which has been sluggish. dd646bd2-0df9-11e5-8ce9-00144feabdc0.img
Posted
its triggered a run in the emerging markets and comes at the worst time for their economy. Turkey was already one of the worst placed emerging markets. High private debt to currency reserves ratio
This result may bring some instability because its a fractured mandate but Erdogan had to go. He was accumulating all powers in the country for himself and just didn't tolerate dissent. This will be far better for Turkey in the long run.
Posted
This result may bring some instability because its a fractured mandate but Erdogan had to go. He was accumulating all powers in the country for himself and just didn't tolerate dissent. This will be far better for Turkey in the long run.
remains to be seen what replaces him. Good result for India though. Erdogen was clearly pro pakistani. Earlier Turkish regimes were soft (towards pakistan) to neutral on the subcontinental issues
Posted

i guess the currency markets will show the first signs of investor sentiment... If europe had a good mechanism then IMO Greece with barely 10 million people out of 500 million people in the EU was nothing. Europe could have taken it in its stride. I do hope this does not lead to a domino effect. The likes of Ireland have done extremely well in bouncing back to growth. Its Spain i worry about the most. If Spain falls then it really is game over.

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