India Might Go Second Even With 0-2

[Cricketics]

IWhat is the logic behind all these calls for a whitewash?

i know, ppl are worrying a lot.. offcourse its the tougest series but then it's not that we nothing to lose...Aussies know that apart from saffers, India is the only threat for them in test.. they are aware about our batting strength.. i mean look @ the recent history after aus, its India who have dominated.. they defeated lankanz 2-0, doesn't really make a difference..

[Chandan]

I hope your optimism is transferred as confidence in our players. I am desperate to have a decent test series vs Aussies. Let us hope for the best but be also prepared for the worst!

[The Outsider]

I hope your optimism is transferred as confidence in our players. I am desperate to have a decent test series vs Aussies. Let us hope for the best but be also prepared for the worst!

Chandan, it's not a question of my optimism or pessimism. All we can do on this board is analyze and discuss past performances and current team composition to give us indicators of future performance. And I see nothing which would suggest a drubbing for India based on cricket logic. I'll be the first person to eat crow if we do get drubbed but all I am asking for a cricketing logic behind such doomsday predictions. PS : I was one of the group who never thought Ganguly would come back, he did, and splendidly. So don't think my reasonings are always correct.

[DesiChap]

It is going to be 2-1 either way. I have my money on India pulling it off. Do not underestimate the willpower of our old "palthan" making one last trip

[Bumper]

I dont think we can bowl this Aussie batting machine out twice. I think there is a good chance that we will end up drawing the Sydney & Adelaide tests. Perth will see a Aussie victory. MCG is a wild card for me. Aussies may wrap this one up 2-0 If Sreesanth had been around (with his ability to bowl seam up), we could have entertained thoughts of winning a test. But without him, with just Zak & RPS spearheading the attack, it will be very difficult to take 20 wickets, esp since Ishant is not gonna keep it tight at the other end. The best way to purchase wickets with this attack is to choke up the runs and frustrate the Aussie batsmen. Knowing their propensity to attack, they will take the risks to score runs. And there inlies our chance.

[Chandan]

Thunderstorms hit Galle today. The ground is flooded and the 3rd Test looks like a draw even before it has begun. Important portents for India in those angry clouds. I was telling Shwetabh yesterday that irrespective of the result of the SL-England series, India will stay 4th. All SL have to do is draw the next match, and they will leapfrog India into 3rd place on an identical 109 integer points, but ahead on decimals. If England win the next Test, they actually drop a point and go down to 110. However, they stay second. If SL win the final Test, they overtake SA into second place, with 110.6 points, rounded off to 111. You would always want your side to win whenever they take the field, but in the ensuing series, because of the huge disparity in current points tally between the two sides (Australia 143, India 109), the visitors have all to gain and little to lose from the points perspective. Look at the effect of various outcomes on India's points tally. Parentheses indicate rounding off to nearest integer. 2-0 or 3-1----117.3 (117) 1-0 or 2-1----115.9 (116) 1-1 or 2-2----113.3 (113) 1-2 or 0-1----110.7 (111) 0-2 or 1-3----109.4 (109) 0-3----108.1 (108) 0-4----106.7 (107) Note that India are currently on 108.8 points, rounded off to 109. Therefore, they would gain points for any outcome better than 0-3. What's more, if the next SL-England Test ends in a draw, as is looking likely due to those thunderstorms in the emerald isle, India would go second even if they are whipped 0-2 by Australia. In the case of a decisive result in Galle, no matter who wins, India can still go second with a series outcome of 0-1 or better. There are some perks to playing Australia, after all.

What'll be our points if we draw two tests in Australia? And what do you reckon the result of 3rd match at Galle be after today's game?

[Dhondy]

What'll be our points if we draw two tests in Australia?

Lose 2-0, you mean? We'll remain on 109 (actually on 109.4, so we'll gain 0.6 points)

And what do you reckon the result of 3rd match at Galle be after today's game?

Impossible to predict. All three results are possible at this point.

[King Tendulkar]

If we win test series 4-0 how far willl we be behind the aussies and becoming number 1 ranked test side?

[DesiChap]

If we win test series 4-0 how far willl we be behind the aussies and becoming number 1 ranked test side?

:D

[MundaPakistani]

I think you folks are forgetting about SA. They are currently ranked higher than IND and will improve their ranking once they beat WI(which is inevitable)

[Dhondy]

I think you folks are forgetting about SA. They are currently ranked higher than IND and will improve their ranking once they beat WI(which is inevitable)

A 3-0 series victory will elevate SA to 110.6 points. India can still stay ahead with any outcome better than 0-2.

[Cricketics]

I think you folks are forgetting about SA. They are currently ranked higher than IND and will improve their ranking once they beat WI(which is inevitable)

even if they defeat windies, they won't gain any big lead, cauz they will be defeating a lower ranked team... which won't fetch enough points to overtake on a team with good lead...

[Dhondy]

If we win test series 4-0 how far willl we be behind the aussies and becoming number 1 ranked test side?

Ask JK Rowling.

[Chandan]

Hmm, so by drawing 2 matches, ie, going down in the sries by 2-0, we'll gain 0.6 ponts? This'll take us to 110 or maybe 109 itself? Anyway, I'd rather watch how the series unfolds rather than worrying about ranks!!:D

[Chandan]

So the match at Galle is drawn and England have fallen from 2nd to 5th whereas SL have risen to 3rd. Now the battle to be the second best team really hots up!!

[Dhondy]

Yes Chandan, SL go third, behind SA, relegating India to 4th, with all three sides bunched on 109, SA on 109.2, SL on 109.1, and India on 108.8. England go 5th with 107.47, rounded off to 107. SL's ascent to 3rd place shows up some of the weaknesses in the ICC ranking system. Take a look at the table below, illustrating their Test record against various teams, home & away..

 [FONT=MONOSPACE,COURIER NEW,COURIER]
----------------------Home                  Away                Neutral
Matches          W  T   D   L   W/L    W  T   D   L   W/L    W  T   D   L   W/L

v Australia      1  0   4   5  0.20    0  0   2   8  0.00    -  -   -   -   -  
v Bangladesh     8  0   0   0   -      2  0   0   0   -      -  -   -   -   -  
v England        4  0   3   3  1.33    2  0   3   5  0.40    -  -   -   -   -  
v India          3  0   7   2  1.50    0  0   6   8  0.00    -  -   -   -   -  
v New Zealand    3  0   5   3  1.00    2  0   5   6  0.33    -  -   -   -   -  
v Pakistan       1  0   5   6  0.17    6  0   5   8  0.75    0  0   0   1  0.00
v South Africa   4  0   4   2  2.00    0  0   1   6  0.00    -  -   -   -   -  
v West Indies    5  0   1   0   -      0  0   2   2  0.00    -  -   -   -   -  
v Zimbabwe       7  0   0   0   -      3  0   5   0   -      -  -   -   -   -  
[/FONT] 

Notice how they have never won a Test in Australia, South Africa, West Indies or India. It's a staggering anomaly for a side placed 3rd in the Test table. Their upturn is largely driven by their ten Test victories over BD. They have beaten them in every Test they have figured in. The anomaly is largely down to two factors. First, ICC's reluctance to weight away Test match victories over home wins, and secondly, the strange scheduling that has seen: 1. SL play BD in three closely spaced series in the last couple of years or so 2. Two visits from SA to their shores in recent years, without a reciprocal visit from SL. The last time SL visited SA was 5 years ago, and 3. When they do visit Australia or SA, these tend to be for two-Test series. Given SL's abysmal record in these countries, where they lose almost every Test they feature in, brevity of engagement is a distinct advantage. BTW, here's a nugget that will interest you. When Australia play Pakistan later next year, their points tally will read in the range of 142-144, while Pakistan will be on 94-95. It will be the first time since the ICC rankings kicked off that two major Test nations (leaving out WI, who are in sad decline) would have faced off against each other with more than 40 points separating them. Wht this means is that the rankings will have to be calculated in a completely different way, to prevent Australia from losing points even if they win the series 3-0. Interesting, isn't it?

[Guest BossBhai]

-- Removed on request of the user --

[Chandan]

Yes Chandan, SL go third, behind SA, relegating India to 4th, with all three sides bunched on 109, SA on 109.2, SL on 109.1, and India on 108.8. England go 5th with 107.47, rounded off to 107. SL's ascent to 3rd place shows up some of the weaknesses in the ICC ranking system. Take a look at the table below, illustrating their Test record against various teams, home & away..

 
[FONT=MONOSPACE,COURIER NEW,COURIER]----------------------Home                  Away                Neutral[/FONT]
[FONT=MONOSPACE,COURIER NEW,COURIER]Matches          W  T   D   L   W/L    W  T   D   L   W/L    W  T   D   L   W/L[/FONT]
 
[FONT=MONOSPACE,COURIER NEW,COURIER]v Australia      1  0   4   5  0.20    0  0   2   8  0.00    -  -   -   -   -  [/FONT]
[FONT=MONOSPACE,COURIER NEW,COURIER]v Bangladesh     8  0   0   0   -      2  0   0   0   -      -  -   -   -   -  [/FONT]
[FONT=MONOSPACE,COURIER NEW,COURIER]v England        4  0   3   3  1.33    2  0   3   5  0.40    -  -   -   -   -  [/FONT]
[FONT=MONOSPACE,COURIER NEW,COURIER]v India          3  0   7   2  1.50    0  0   6   8  0.00    -  -   -   -   -  [/FONT]
[FONT=MONOSPACE,COURIER NEW,COURIER]v New Zealand    3  0   5   3  1.00    2  0   5   6  0.33    -  -   -   -   -  [/FONT]
[FONT=MONOSPACE,COURIER NEW,COURIER]v Pakistan       1  0   5   6  0.17    6  0   5   8  0.75    0  0   0   1  0.00[/FONT]
[FONT=MONOSPACE,COURIER NEW,COURIER]v South Africa   4  0   4   2  2.00    0  0   1   6  0.00    -  -   -   -   -  [/FONT]
[FONT=MONOSPACE,COURIER NEW,COURIER]v West Indies    5  0   1   0   -      0  0   2   2  0.00    -  -   -   -   -  [/FONT]
[FONT=MONOSPACE,COURIER NEW,COURIER]v Zimbabwe       7  0   0   0   -      3  0   5   0   -      -  -   -   -   -  [/FONT]
 

Notice how they have never won a Test in Australia, South Africa, West Indies or India. It's a staggering anomaly for a side placed 3rd in the Test table. Their upturn is largely driven by their ten Test victories over BD. They have beaten them in every Test they have figured in. The anomaly is largely down to two factors. First, ICC's reluctance to weight away Test match victories over home wins, and secondly, the strange scheduling that has seen: 1. SL play BD in three closely spaced series in the last couple of years or so 2. Two visits from SA to their shores in recent years, without a reciprocal visit from SL. The last time SL visited SA was 5 years ago, and 3. When they do visit Australia or SA, these tend to be for two-Test series. Given SL's abysmal record in these countries, where they lose almost every Test they feature in, brevity of engagement is a distinct advantage. BTW, here's a nugget that will interest you. When Australia play Pakistan later next year, their points tally will read in the range of 142-144, while Pakistan will be on 94-95. It will be the first time since the ICC rankings kicked off that two major Test nations (leaving out WI, who are in sad decline) would have faced off against each other with more than 40 points separating them. Wht this means is that the rankings will have to be calculated in a completely different way, to prevent Australia from losing points even if they win the series 3-0. Interesting, isn't it?

Terrific explanation, Dhondy. I've not been able to understand how this system works, nor do I intend to. But since you have understood is perfectly, will you please point out the loop holes of this system, and what are the things that it ignores while what are the things it gives undue weightage to?

[kabira]

Doc has already pointed out loopholes Doc says "The anomaly is largely down to two factors. First, ICC's reluctance to weight away Test match victories over home wins, and secondly, the strange scheduling that has seen:"

[Chandan]

Doc has already pointed out loopholes Doc says "The anomaly is largely down to two factors. First, ICC's reluctance to weight away Test match victories over home wins, and secondly, the strange scheduling that has seen:"

There has to have more loop-holes Kabira. If you look at SA's performance, what away victories have they acheived, apart from again Pak recently and WI maybe? They were even beaten by England at home. Then how are they ahead? Plus what period is taken into consideration? And I just can't believe that we've played 5 tests more than what Australia has, in the same period.