velu Posted July 19, 2016 Share Posted July 19, 2016 Just now, randomGuy said: Yes they are. Yes, but the point was, try to wait for 20-30% correction. Its not a hard and fast rule but still, good to keep in mind. modi is doing lots of reforms/tinkering which definitely is in favour the mkt .. my view is every dip is a buying opportunity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
randomGuy Posted July 19, 2016 Share Posted July 19, 2016 (edited) 14 minutes ago, velu said: modi is doing lots of reforms/tinkering which definitely is in favour the mkt .. my view is every dip is a buying opportunity Not for expensive stocks.. for ex. Motilal oswal trading at ~35 pe.....i bought at 290 2 months back and still hold it. I won't suggest to buy it on smaller dips coz its expensive. So where there is big discount to intrinsic value or relative valuations, u can buy any time. For ex manappuram i bought near highs at 45/- but it quickly went upto 80in 2 months. So it not a hard and fast rule. Be flexible in buying and selling. And use all the knowledge and experience that u have acquired. I wanna strongly suggest researchbytes.com to everyone and listen to concalls of the cos. U wanna invest in. Edited July 19, 2016 by randomGuy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
randomGuy Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 (edited) I had done some back of the envelope calculation for a Mature stabilised running size of housing finance market. so for anyone who is interested - Average Age (life expectancy) of house or apartment = 80 yrs. India's peak population=150cr. Average household size when Indian economy matures = 3 members per household (right now it is 4.8 for India , 3.1 for China iirc and 2.x for US, Germany, Japan etc) Meaning India needs 150/3=50cr new houses every 80 yrs. Or 50/80crore new houses per year. Occupancy rate = 100% (meaning all houses are occupied, either owned or taken on rent) For each and every house, let us say 15 lac loan is taken. Some people need no loan, some 5 lacs , some 20 lacs, some 30 lacs... I have taken 15 lacs as an average for every new house bought. Your assumption here may be different from mine. Let us say the loan is taken for 15 yrs period on average. So when India becomes a optimal economy (where say everyone is eligible for a 15 lac loan), then at all times, the total running asset size (loan book size or the total outstanding loans ) of the home loans would be= 50/80(15+14+13+12...+2+1) lac crores = 75 lac crore = 75 trillion rupees Pls note that it is the running outstanding loan book size. so someone who took loan for 15lacs 1 year back , assume 14 lacs is outstanding loan now. someone who took loan for 15lacs 2 year back , assume 13 lacs is outstanding loan now. (hence 15+14+13...+1 in above calculations) According to NHB (national housing board) data, it was 10 trillion rupees 2 yrs back growing at 20-25% cagr. So, at this point, it should be 15 trillion rupees. That gives a 5 fold increase possibility till the time India becomes a more prosperous economy. 15 trillion rupees is 11.5% of 2 trillion dollar economy (taking exchange rate of 65 rupees per USD). Let us say, the GDP size is 5 trillion USD when the housing finance market does become 75 trillion rupees. Taking same exchange rate of 65 rupees: 75/(5*65)=23% Compare with other countries: China's home loan market is 20% of its GDP at this point BTW. And USA's mortgage debt is 45% of its GDP. Edited July 21, 2016 by randomGuy velu 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
randomGuy Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 (edited) motilal q1 80 cr vs 47 cr qoq vs 27 cr yoy touched 504 today i sold ...booked 3 lac profit (in 2 months) Edited July 22, 2016 by randomGuy velu 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
randomGuy Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 arman ( largest holding) up as well... satin as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
velu Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 motilal q1 80 cr vs 47 cr qoq vs 27 cr yoy touched 504 today i sold ...booked 3 lac profit (in 2 months) Wats ur portfolio size? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
randomGuy Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 5 minutes ago, velu said: Wats ur portfolio size? can't tell on forum. just this that I dont invest in real estate so significant chunk of savings is in stocks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
velu Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 can't tell on forum. just this that I dont invest in real estate so significant chunk of savings is in stocks. I invested most of my earnings in RE , in my native.. But in stocks , only trading Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
randomGuy Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 I invested most of my earnings in RE , in my native.. But in stocks , only trading ok good. which place btw? Some stock are good for long term also btw....for ex. arman fin. - market cap for just ~180 cr. now. Transparent, ethical management (listen to concalls etc), wanting to grow at 70% this year, and similar rates for next 4-5 years....and maintain RoE at 18-20%. For 180 cr. Mcap, its easier to envisage 10x growth (it'll just become 1800 cr. Mcap) than for a larger co. (for 5000cr. co. it has to become 50,000 cr to grow 10x). I am invested in these stocks. So my views are biased and do ur own due diligence before investing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
velu Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 11 minutes ago, randomGuy said: ok good. which place btw? Some stock are good for long term also btw....for ex. arman fin. - market cap for just ~180 cr. now. Transparent, ethical management (listen to concalls etc), wanting to grow at 70% this year, and similar rates for next 4-5 years....and maintain RoE at 18-20%. For 180 cr. Mcap, its easier to envisage 10x growth (it'll just become 1800 cr. Mcap) than for a larger co. (for 5000cr. co. it has to become 50,000 cr to grow 10x). I am invested in these stocks. So my views are biased and do ur own due diligence before investing. Bhavani .. near erode/coimbatore if u know the geography of TN.. most investors blindly follow the news flow .. rarely they do fundamental analysis by themselves ( still these underrated companies need someone to bring them to limelight ).. my first company went for IPO long back before i joined .. issue price was 260 but it was trading at 600rs within a year ( sasken ) and considering the crap we do at office , i decided not to invest .. later stock plunged to 60 or 70rs i mostly do options .. cover it in a day or two and run away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
randomGuy Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 3 minutes ago, velu said: Bhavani .. near erode/coimbatore if u know the geography of TN.. most investors blindly follow the news flow .. rarely they do fundamental analysis by themselves ( still these underrated companies need someone to bring them to limelight ).. my first company went for IPO long back before i joined .. issue price was 260 but it was trading at 600rs within a year ( sasken ) and considering the crap we do at office , i decided not to invest .. later stock plunged to 60 or 70rs i mostly do options .. cover it in a day or two and run away Good.... researchbtyes website is a massive asset for retail. I was holding arman a few months before any MF entered it thanks to RB... reliance mutual fund entered a couple of weeks back . usually they don't invest in such miccrocaps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
velu Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 11 minutes ago, randomGuy said: Good.... researchbtyes website is a massive asset for retail. I was holding arman a few months before any MF entered it thanks to RB... reliance mutual fund entered a couple of weeks back . usually they don't invest in such miccrocaps there are so many such sites .. but what we need is the site which will bring all the latest news every broker tries their best .. zerodha has got zerodha pulse , will put the news asap .. but nothing beats good old tv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malcolm Merlyn Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 Bhavani .. near erode/coimbatore if u know the geography of TN.. most investors blindly follow the news flow .. rarely they do fundamental analysis by themselves ( still these underrated companies need someone to bring them to limelight ).. my first company went for IPO long back before i joined .. issue price was 260 but it was trading at 600rs within a year ( sasken ) and considering the crap we do at office , i decided not to invest .. later stock plunged to 60 or 70rs i mostly do options .. cover it in a day or two and run away Sasken was such a blue eyed stock.They supposedly had a very elite selection procedure for hiring.Then it all came down.And knowing that they hired you just makes it clearer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
randomGuy Posted July 23, 2016 Share Posted July 23, 2016 MFI (microfinance) space seems to be on crack. Equitas declares great results after Bharat fin. inclusion (sks micro). Satin, Ujjivan, Arman operate in same space. Results are expected to be fab in these as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
velu Posted July 23, 2016 Share Posted July 23, 2016 ^^ bharat finance results came on friday and it shot up .. ( i usually follow all the results of the scripts which is in f&o ).. all non banking finance too went up .. l&tfin , m&mfin etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Debutant Posted July 24, 2016 Share Posted July 24, 2016 I have always been fascinated by the options trading but still don't do it because of its high volatility. I have read and heard from many that shorting options is much more profitable than buying them as they deprecate with time. What do you guys generally do buy or short ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
velu Posted July 24, 2016 Share Posted July 24, 2016 I have always been fascinated by the options trading but still don't do it because of its high volatility. I have read and heard from many that shorting options is much more profitable than buying them as they deprecate with time. What do you guys generally do buy or short ??? I do trade mostly in stock options.. Almost all stock option trades are shorts ( outside the money options and some times i hedge it ).. When we short options after some events , we are with time as well as volatility.. Here we have to avoid shorting before any major events like results, brexit , election etc In index buying is preferable and mostly play in bank nifty weekly options.. But i would still short otm options to go with my atm options Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted July 24, 2016 Author Share Posted July 24, 2016 Options trading is probably least volatile. Losses can easily be limited Sent from my Wileyfox Swift using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Debutant Posted July 24, 2016 Share Posted July 24, 2016 6 hours ago, velu said: I do trade mostly in stock options.. Almost all stock option trades are shorts ( outside the money options and some times i hedge it ).. When we short options after some events , we are with time as well as volatility.. Here we have to avoid shorting before any major events like results, brexit , election etc In index buying is preferable and mostly play in bank nifty weekly options.. But i would still short otm options to go with my atm options But stock options are not that liquid. Volume is always very low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
velu Posted July 24, 2016 Share Posted July 24, 2016 But stock options are not that liquid. Volume is always very low. All actively traded stocks have liquid option.. We cant compare it with stock futures anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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