Muloghonto Posted January 19, 2020 Posted January 19, 2020 On 10/30/2019 at 10:20 AM, zen said: Here are the projections for 2050: https://www.cnn.com/2019/10/30/world/rising-sea-cities-study-intl-hnk-scli-sci/index.html If you read the actual scientific report, they all say it’s a very rough estimate because simplistic ‘ how much ice will melt= how much net rise in sea level = which coastlines are screwed’ projections do not take many things into account. for eg, Kolkata, Basra or Baghdad most likely won’t go underwater, despite being in the ‘below sea level projections’. Why ? Two words: silt load. When you sit on a delta, especially high siltation delta like Ganges-Brahmaputra or Tigris-Euphrates, you sit on a land that is slowly rising due to silt accumulation. 2000 years ago, the sundarban coastline was near Barrackpore. 3000 years ago, Basra was 50km into the Persian gulf. We have to take into account the siltation rates near deltas. another thing to take into account is isostatic rebound: entire Scandinavia is rising because areas of ice sheet are where the crust is depressed into the mantle due to the weight of the ice. When that ice is gone, the land rises. Scandinavia sees 1cm per year land rise due to this. there are many such factors to consider that isn’t in these alarmist reports.
zen Posted January 19, 2020 Author Posted January 19, 2020 7 minutes ago, Muloghonto said: If you read the actual scientific report, they all say it’s a very rough estimate because simplistic ‘ how much ice will melt= how much net rise in sea level = which coastlines are screwed’ projections do not take many things into account. for eg, Kolkata, Basra or Baghdad most likely won’t go underwater, despite being in the ‘below sea level projections’. Why ? Two words: silt load. When you sit on a delta, especially high siltation delta like Ganges-Brahmaputra or Tigris-Euphrates, you sit on a land that is slowly rising due to silt accumulation. 2000 years ago, the sundarban coastline was near Barrackpore. 3000 years ago, Basra was 50km into the Persian gulf. We have to take into account the siltation rates near deltas. another thing to take into account is isostatic rebound: entire Scandinavia is rising because areas of ice sheet are where the crust is depressed into the mantle due to the weight of the ice. When that ice is gone, the land rises. Scandinavia sees 1cm per year land rise due to this. there are many such factors to consider that isn’t in these alarmist reports. What is important is how global warming is impacting the planet .... One example is the sinking island in the video in one of my posts .... X may be less likely to be impacted, while Y could be more at risk that is understood but both X and Y are at risk (though the degree may vary) and even if only Y is impacted, it is still a bad result
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