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Tracking the performance of polling agencies


G_B_

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If you were following the elections in India, regardless of political partisan persuasion we can all agree Cvoter is pure garbage. Its just literally a few phone calls to generate data (for sake of it) and then Yashwant Deshmukhs political guesswork. Sometimes this guesswork comes off (karnataka 2018) but the vast majority of time it is rubbish. Punjab 2017 remains their biggest clusterfudge.

 

Its a business really for them. Abp will carry out "opinion polls" months into the election and show sensationalist outcomes initially. Then closer to time they will narrow the lead.

 

There is also a new trend of cvoter selling the same survey to other network like times now. Instead of showing a range like bjp (10 to 16 seats) times now will show 13 years and present it as a totally new survey.

 

My question is why isnt this fraud in plain sight called? Cvoter is fraud.

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The other post is about axis

 

I think a lot of agencies (cnx) are adjusting their numbers to what axis are saying. I have it on good authority cnx had rajasthan as a win for bjp but changed it once they got hold of the axis numbers.

 

The flaw in the axis methodology in general is their inability to predict minor forces like independents or third forces. Lets say a state has three political parties. Axis will under predict the role of the third. 

 

Their vote share predictions were never great. But seat share usually is their strong suit.

 

They got wb wrong they got bihar wrong. They got rajasthan and chhatisgrah wrong.  A lot of errors are creeping into their predictions. 

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6 minutes ago, cowboysfan said:

Exit polls are getting harder every year,i think people dont want to tell who they voted for anymore.

As OP said, there is no accountability for some agencies. I have never seen some like CVoter to JanKiBaat getting it right when BJP wins. They are fraudsters and liars. Not even in the 3% margin of error that they can usually hide from. 

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