Main reasons of BJP's loss in this elections

[chanakya]

sushma swaraj would be an ok leader for BJP. BUt where are the yong guys who will take on the congress youth brigade? In all this hullabo can anyone throw some light on the Youth congress and the results YC are acheiving at local college elecetion levels etc ?

[Keep-It-Cool]

There were some state issues at play ...but wherever the two parties were more or less equal, the national factor took the forefront: Consider this: BJP swept the assembly polls in Gujarat - got far fewer seats in the LS polls than they expected - are on record saying that the performance is disappointing - lost 0.9% vote share in this state MP - again, swept the assembly polls but the lead in LS seats was much narrower and below par AP - YSR got a fractured mandate for the state govt but swept the LS polls - this is really stark. They actually lost seats in the assembly and gained in the LS Bihar - Cong did not make headway in terms of seats but got a 6.5% vote share swing in their favour The BJP losing only 18-20 seats looks a very small thing but when one considers that this loss is on top of a poor performance in the 2004 elections, it really tells a sad story. Imagine ..despite all the short comings that they tried to point out about the Congress, when people tried to look for an alternative to the third front, they went to the Congress and not the BJP. This is not just in states like WB and Kerala where the BJP does not have a presence but also in UP where the Congress got more seats as well as vote share compared to the BJP. Bottomline: BJP has lost the moral high ground that it has been trying to claim through some rather idiotic things (flip flop over the nuclear deal, highly negative line of campaigning, trying to do a houdini act with Varun Gandhi - distance themselves as well as support him being the main ones). It is telling that the only state where its ally did really well was one which refused to let either Varun or Modi come in and campaign - i.e. Bihar.

[Lurker]

Bottomline: BJP has lost the moral high ground that it has been trying to claim through some rather idiotic things (flip flop over the nuclear deal' date=' highly negative line of campaigning, trying to do a houdini act with Varun Gandhi - distance themselves as well as support him being the main ones). [b']It is telling that the only state where its ally did really well was one which refused to let either Varun or Modi come in and campaign - i.e. Bihar.

I think that is an excellent point. Some BJP supporters may think that the mention of Modi and Varun Gandhi pi$ses off Muslims, which it probably does, but they forget that the two gentlemen also pi$s off a lot of Hindus. Had they been campaigning in Bihar Nitish Kumar would have a tough time explaining what he was doing with these gents, no matter how good his track record was. In the end Nitish made the correct call...hope BJP does too. xx

[seedhi]

I think that is an excellent point. Some BJP supporters may think that the mention of Modi and Varun Gandhi pi off Muslims, which it probably does, but they forget that the two gentlemen also pi off a lot of Hindus. Had they been campaigning in Bihar Nitish Kumar would have a tough time explaining what he was doing with these gents, no matter how good his track record was. In the end Nitish made the correct call...hope BJP does too. xx

BJP will be committing suicide if it does not allow Modi to take control of the party. The entire rank and file of the party is saying that it is only Modi who inspires them the most. After all Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Karnataka etc did go with the BJP. Most of the BJP losses were due to local factors. In UP, Varun Gandhi did consolidate muslims behind congress to some extent, and in urban areas his speech could have had adverse effect. But Modi enjoys lot of popular support in urban areas. The correct strategy for BJP is to wait for two months till the SIT clears Modi's name (which it will) and then use that boost to appoint him the party president or leader of opposition. There are no other options either, Rajnath and Joshi are deadwood, Jaitley has no mass appeal, Sushma is unreliable and again lacks mass appeal, Jaswant is uninspiring. Modi is the way to go for BJP, they dont have much to lose anyway.

[Lurker]

BJP will be committing suicide if it does not allow Modi to take control of the party. The entire rank and file of the party is saying that it is only Modi who inspires them the most. After all Chhattisgarh' date= Jharkhand, Karnataka etc did go with the BJP. Most of the BJP losses were due to local factors. In UP, Varun Gandhi did consolidate muslims behind congress to some extent, and in urban areas his speech could have had adverse effect. But Modi enjoys lot of popular support in urban areas. The correct strategy for BJP is to wait for two months till the SIT clears Modi's name (which it will) and then use that boost to appoint him the party president or leader of opposition. There are no other options either, Rajnath and Joshi are deadwood, Jaitley has no mass appeal, Sushma is unreliable and again lacks mass appeal, Jaswant is uninspiring. Modi is the way to go for BJP, they dont have much to lose anyway.

And I think it would be suicidal if BJP went with Modi. The biggest hitch BJP has is that it is thought of as anti-Muslim. And who in India is considered more anti-Muslim than Modi? None. This is a slam and dunk case, doesnt matter if SIT releases Modi or not. BJP will have to more from right to centre-right and Modi is not the person for that swing.

[seedhi]

And I think it would be suicidal if BJP went with Modi. The biggest hitch BJP has is that it is thought of as anti-Muslim. And who in India is considered more anti-Muslim than Modi? None. This is a slam and dunk case, doesnt matter if SIT releases Modi or not. BJP will have to more from right to centre-right and Modi is not the person for that swing.

Muslims and the liberal Hindus you refer to will hardly ever vote for BJP in any large proportion. BJP has lost because it has moved away from its core principles, and ofcourse lost intraparty discipline. BJP is losing out is because it is trying to imitate the congress and so is losing. Why would people vote for the BJP if it occupies the same soft centrist position as the congress? Getting N. Modi to lead will enthuse the party workers more than anyone else can. There is no other option anyway. Allies might be a problem, but I think in 5 years they can be brought over, especially if BJP performs well in state elections.

[Lurker]

Muslims and the liberal Hindus you refer to will hardly ever vote for BJP in any large proportion. BJP has lost because it has moved away from its core principles' date= and ofcourse lost intraparty discipline. BJP is losing out is because it is trying to imitate the congress and so is losing. Why would people vote for the BJP if it occupies the same soft centrist position as the congress? Getting N. Modi to lead will enthuse the party workers more than anyone else can. There is no other option anyway. Allies might be a problem, but I think in 5 years they can be brought over, especially if BJP performs well in state elections.

If that is indeed true then I dare say BJP is not going to win anytime soon. Bulk of Indian Hindus are moderate to liberal Hindus. If you add Muslims to it the numbers would be more than enough to beat BJP every single time. I mean BJP received close to 19% votes in 2009 election (data as of EC website). Considering Muslims are about 15-16% population by themselve you can do the maths and see how Muslims by themselves will bring BJP down, forget liberal Hindus for a second. xxx

[seedhi]

If that is indeed true then I dare say BJP is not going to win anytime soon. Bulk of Indian Hindus are moderate to liberal Hindus. If you add Muslims to it the numbers would be more than enough to beat BJP every single time. I mean BJP received close to 19% votes in 2009 election (data as of EC website). Considering Muslims are about 15-16% population by themselve you can do the maths and see how Muslims by themselves will bring BJP down, forget liberal Hindus for a second. xxx

That figure of 19% of votes is because in many constituencies, especially in the South, BJP is very weak. Moreover, BJP does not field candidates in every constituency. If Muslims and liberal Hindus can defeat BJP every single time then BJP would not have won in Karnataka, MP, Chhatisgarh, Gujarat, Jharkhand, Himachal etc. Plus I am not saying that BJP go out of its way to scare Muslims away like that idiotic Varun Gandhi episode. I did not see N. Modi giving anti-Muslim speeches. Also, if he gets a clean chit from SIT it will be a huge boost for him. Five years is sufficient time for a final catharsis on the Gujarat riots. Moreover, BJP needs to penetrate into other states like AP, West Bengal, Orissa etc. And the only way it can grow in those states is by sticking to its core principles not as a mirror image of congress. Karnataka is a good example.

[Lurker]

If Muslims and liberal Hindus can defeat BJP every single time then BJP would not have won in Karnataka, MP, Chhatisgarh, Gujarat, Jharkhand, Himachal etc. Plus I am not saying that BJP go out of its way to scare Muslims away like that idiotic Varun Gandhi episode. I did not see N. Modi giving anti-Muslim speeches. Also, if he gets a clean chit from SIT it will be a huge boost for him. Five years is sufficient time for a final catharsis on the Gujarat riots.

In Karnataka the difference between BJP and Congress was only 4% (41.6 and 37.6), of course this translated to a difference of whopping 13 seats (19 and 6 respectively). In UP the difference was less than 1% in favor of Congress and this resulted in 11 seat difference. The moral thus is anything less than 5% will still result in huge difference. I would say Modi will definitely push more than 5% of the electorate awayIf Modi becomes the torchbearer of BJP I fail to see any non-BJP folks who will vote for him. In fact they will polarize completely in the favor of the party that will beat BJP..as was witnessed in UP very clearly.

[seedhi]

In Karnataka the difference between BJP and Congress was only 4% (41.6 and 37.6), of course this translated to a difference of whopping 13 seats (19 and 6 respectively). In UP the difference was less than 1% in favor of Congress and this resulted in 11 seat difference. The moral thus is anything less than 5% will still result in huge difference. I would say Modi will definitely push more than 5% of the electorate awayIf Modi becomes the torchbearer of BJP I fail to see any non-BJP folks who will vote for him. In fact they will polarize completely in the favor of the party that will beat BJP..as was witnessed in UP very clearly.

Are you saying Modi will polarize more than in the 90s when BJP used to win 50 seats in UP. Even during the Babri Masjid issue the BJP was not as low as it is today in UP - the reason is simple: Hindus moved away when BJP moved away from Hindutva. In Karnataka, Hindutva is THE reason BJP has grown. You say Modi will push 5% away from BJP, well reality check : Anyone who does not like Modi does not vote for the party anyway. Can you imagine anyone who dislikes Modi but voted for Advani? I dont think so. On the other hand I can confidently say many would have voted for Modi but were put off by the lethargy Advani represented. It is a fact that Modi is nationally the biggest crowd puller in BJP. Modi will definitely bring in some Hindu votes like he has done regularly in Gujarat. Moreover, the existing BJP base, rank and file is enthusiastically behind him anyway. Lastly, there is NO ALTERNATIVE to Modi inside BJP.

[cowboysfan]

in karnataka the muslim vote is evenly spread out through the state and it doesnt really affect the BJP-its a ideal for BJP but it doesnt happen in other states.I also think they got a significant Lingaya vote and a sizable chunk of Gowda vote too.the problem for BJP is that they cannot replicate this in other southern states.

[seedhi]

in karnataka the muslim vote is evenly spread out through the state and it doesnt really affect the BJP-its a ideal for BJP but it doesnt happen in other states.I also think they got a significant Lingaya vote and a sizable chunk of Gowda vote too.the problem for BJP is that they cannot replicate this in other southern states.

15 years ago, this was what was said about BJP in Karnataka that it cannot grow in a southern state. Today Karnataka is probably the most Hindutva state in the country. In AP there is a definite opportunity for BJP, it ruined it earlier by joining with TDP. West Bengal too BJP has a good opportunity.

[youngindia]

Very correct indeed KR. There is a lot of similiarities between BJP and Republicans, heavy backing seeped in religion being one of them. It will have to drop that image if it has to be a viable alternative for all seasons(and not merely after a riot) but one thing you have to keep in mind here, BJP is essentially the political wing of RSS. Would RSS drop its Hindu bias? Afraid not. xx

not true. The hindutva movement basically works on the logic "the enemies(christians and muslims are oragnaised. so we have to be organised as well" . they also follow the "religion=state" model of many countries in the islamic world in that a nation state should work primarily for the "interests of majority community". Also they do not follow territorial nationalism-which acknowledges all citizens in the country as indians . they follow cultural nationalism- which means only hindus(in their langage followers of indic religions) are genuine citizens of a hindu rashtra and nonhindus(intheir language christians,muslims,jews,parsis) have to "hinduise" themselves to be real citizens. Also, the caste factor comes in as well. Many sanghis and its supporters are also casteist with deragatory views towards OBC's and SC/ST's. brahminism and pro upper caste image is a key factor why many among upper castes vote for the sangh . Ofcourse it is a politcal wing of the RSS. none of this makes for similarities with the republicans.

[1983-2011]

great thread, it will be updated in 2014 with more reasons:winky:

[ravishingravi]

great thread' date=' it will be updated in 2014 with more reasons:winky:[/quote'] Yes and the biggest one being the retard count of this country .

[ganeshran]

Are you saying Modi will polarize more than in the 90s when BJP used to win 50 seats in UP. Even during the Babri Masjid issue the BJP was not as low as it is today in UP - the reason is simple: Hindus moved away when BJP moved away from Hindutva. In Karnataka' date= Hindutva is THE reason BJP has grown. You say Modi will push 5% away from BJP, well reality check : Anyone who does not like Modi does not vote for the party anyway. Can you imagine anyone who dislikes Modi but voted for Advani? I dont think so. On the other hand I can confidently say many would have voted for Modi but were put off by the lethargy Advani represented. It is a fact that Modi is nationally the biggest crowd puller in BJP. Modi will definitely bring in some Hindu votes like he has done regularly in Gujarat. Moreover, the existing BJP base, rank and file is enthusiastically behind him anyway. Lastly, there is NO ALTERNATIVE to Modi inside BJP.

Totally disagree. The BJP's growth in Karnataka has very little to do with religion. They were elected because of a highly corrupt Gowda duo in JDS and leadership vaccuum in congress after Krishna's departure. Once Elected, BJP brought in stability and decreased corruption in the state - especially Bangalore. The government functioned with a clear plan to ensure economic growth in the state and though they didnt do a sterling job of it, they still did much better than the previous governments because of which they are in a strong position.

[Sachin=GOD]

Totally disagree. The BJP's growth in Karnataka has very little to do with religion. They were elected because of a highly corrupt Gowda duo in JDS and leadership vaccuum in congress after Krishna's departure. Once Elected' date=' BJP brought in stability and decreased corruption in the state - especially Bangalore. The government functioned with a clear plan to ensure economic growth in the state and though they didnt do a sterling job of it, they still did much better than the previous governments because of which they are in a strong position.[/quote'] Its all about religion. BSY, despite being corrupt and having openly revolted against the BJP's entire top leadership, is still so powerful in Karnataka only because of the support of the Lingayat Community. Its the biggest reason reason why the BJP cannot do away with him - the support of the Lingayats was one of the biggest reasons for BJP coming to power in Karnatala so if they antagonize BSY too much they will lose the support of the Lingayats and they cannot afford that.

[CSK Fan]

Yes and the biggest one being the retard count of this country .

When the option is between choosing a bad and a worse party, I would say choosing the bad makes sense. Also, for a country to progress, like India is doing, we need harmony and peace. Unlikely to happen under bjp

[CSK Fan]

Its all about religion. BSY, despite being corrupt and having openly revolted against the BJP's entire top leadership, is still so powerful in Karnataka only because of the support of the Lingayat Community. Its the biggest reason reason why the BJP cannot do away with him - the support of the Lingayats was one of the biggest reasons for BJP coming to power in Karnatala so if they antagonize BSY too much they will lose the support of the Lingayats and they cannot afford that.

But that's never going to work on a national scale.. Just like caste politics are more powerful at a regional level. Sooner bjp realizes this, the better

[Tiger80]

When the option is between choosing a bad and a worse party' date=' I would say choosing the bad makes sense. Also, for a country to progress, like India is doing, we need harmony and peace. Unlikely to happen under bjp[/quote'] So in other words Congress should keep on ruling India indefinitely.