Ram Posted August 18, 2009 Posted August 18, 2009 France, Germany and Japan have all recorded unexpected growths in their GDP in the 2nd quarter. Will the US, whose GDP growth rate recovered from a shocking -6% in the first quarter to a more modest -1.5% in the 2nd, record growth in the third? Is the recession officially over?
goose Posted August 18, 2009 Posted August 18, 2009 There has been an incredible amount of stimulus injected by the powers that be, both fiscal and monetary. Some pick up in activity is inevitable. The question is can it be sustained? Less bad news can only take you so far. Governments have thrown the kitchen sink at this mess and if that doesn't work there is nothing left to try. If the markets get a whiff of that nightmare we're in big big trouble. More specifically, many pundits believe China has not even begun to unravel yet. Right now I'd be buying cheap puts (options to sell) on US stock markets. If you haven't already done so, buy gold !
gs Posted August 18, 2009 Posted August 18, 2009 Not sure if its over yet. Stock markets worldwide tanked yesterday. Like goose mentioned, would have to wait and see if stimulus has indeed stimulated the economy. Banks making profits in both quarters this year is a good sign, hope there is more to come.
DomainK Posted August 19, 2009 Posted August 19, 2009 There is nothing called officially over unless its really and completely gone. Many economists are saying its over, but they are just guessing as they did before the recession came that it would be just another short term affair. However, the Indian market is definitely getting better while the US market awaits better times. The one sign that is a strong indicator is the jobs market which is visibly getting better. B schools are hopeful of hitting the same employment numbers of 2007. Besides, even when the recession is over, the aftereffects will last a long time. Some industries will recover in no time and some others will have to suffer for some more time.
chanakya Posted August 19, 2009 Posted August 19, 2009 the quarter results show an increase and the next day another bank goes bankrupt :D
punjabi_khota Posted August 19, 2009 Posted August 19, 2009 Over ? Far from it. 1). Banks have changed the way they calculate profits and are now free in the way how they evaluate their own assets => the reason why banks have been showing profit. 2).Worldwide stocks fell on Monday, wiping out a lot of gain made over last month or so. 3). Again, the only thing driving stocks up is the sentiment. There is no actual basis for any growth so far. China is gonna go bust in October...you heard it here first.
Ram Posted August 21, 2009 Author Posted August 21, 2009 China is gonna go bust in October...you heard it here first. Thats a bold claim. What makes you say that?
Online Posted August 21, 2009 Posted August 21, 2009 Thats a bold claim. What makes you say that? and it is also a very vague claim can you specify what you imply by "going bust" ?
retterimp Posted August 21, 2009 Posted August 21, 2009 Over ? Far from it. 1). Banks have changed the way they calculate profits and are now free in the way how they evaluate their own assets => the reason why banks have been showing profit. 2).Worldwide stocks fell on Monday, wiping out a lot of gain made over last month or so. 3). Again, the only thing driving stocks up is the sentiment. There is no actual basis for any growth so far. China is gonna go bust in October...you heard it here first. umm.. they're the one whos manufacturing is expanding and have a v-shaped positive recovery in retail sales...so lets see..manufacturing: check, consumer: check, two key drivers of growth intact for now..and their consumer isnt over-levered like the US, in fact their govt actually wants to cut lending to cut out some of the froth in the mkt, which is wht u saw with the 20% correction so your claim is extremely bold, i will say outright its just wrong at least in the near future as for stock markets going up on sentiment..do you know that really smart ppl invest in the markets? if it were all sentiment these smart ppl would just sell the sh!t out of the mkt. there is fundamental growth out there..its not a bag of shi!t you make it out to be
punjabi_khota Posted August 21, 2009 Posted August 21, 2009 umm.. they're the one whos manufacturing is expanding and have a v-shaped positive recovery in retail sales...so lets see..manufacturing: check, consumer: check, two key drivers of growth intact for now..and their consumer isnt over-levered like the US, in fact their govt actually wants to cut lending to cut out some of the froth in the mkt, which is wht u saw with the 20% correction so your claim is extremely bold, i will say outright its just wrong at least in the near future Has there been ANY improvement in consumer spending levels in the US ? Thats what the biggest market for Chinese goods is and thats what is going to put China down in near future. as for stock markets going up on sentiment..do you know that really smart ppl invest in the markets? if it were all sentiment these smart ppl would just sell the sh!t out of the mkt. there is fundamental growth out there..its not a bag of shi!t you make it out to be Would you let me know what is the fundamental growth and how you quantify it. I would really like to know because I really no idea. If the consumers are spending less than ever, what growth are we talking about here ? There are 2 ways of raising a stock's value(and hence the indices ) : either the company does really well, posts huge profits and has a sound resources Or there is hype about something , there is general "shining India/US" type sentiment that usually leads to a rally and then later on everything goes bust, or we say "correction". I have a strong feeling it is the latter that is driving the markets up here.
Guest Gunner Posted August 21, 2009 Posted August 21, 2009 this 'recovery' is going to be L-shaped. Quite similar to 2000-01 until Sept 11 happened.
Guest Gunner Posted August 21, 2009 Posted August 21, 2009 umm.. they're the one whos manufacturing is expanding and have a v-shaped positive recovery in retail sales...so lets see..manufacturing: check, consumer: check, two key drivers of growth intact for now..and their consumer isnt over-levered like the US, in fact their govt actually wants to cut lending to cut out some of the froth in the mkt, which is wht u saw with the 20% correction so your claim is extremely bold, i will say outright its just wrong at least in the near future I agree with PK's claim of a chinese bust however I wouldn't go as far as to predict October etc. China has some structural problems in its financial sector which is not emerging so far into the news which I find quite surprising. China is currently managing its numbers hoping for a quick recovery.
yoda Posted August 21, 2009 Posted August 21, 2009 forget the market hype and what every pundit has to say. just follow the corporate earnings. while it is true that many have beaten or met restated lower earnings, there is a clear recovery pattern there. same with housing. prices have stopped the drop and are slowly crawling back. imo, the worst is over. doesn't mean we won't be ranging for a while.
retterimp Posted August 21, 2009 Posted August 21, 2009 Has there been ANY improvement in consumer spending levels in the US ? Thats what the biggest market for Chinese goods is and thats what is going to put China down in near future. Would you let me know what is the fundamental growth and how you quantify it. I would really like to know because I really no idea. If the consumers are spending less than ever, what growth are we talking about here ? There are 2 ways of raising a stock's value(and hence the indices ) : either the company does really well, posts huge profits and has a sound resources Or there is hype about something , there is general "shining India/US" type sentiment that usually leads to a rally and then later on everything goes bust, or we say "correction". I have a strong feeling it is the latter that is driving the markets up here. well i meant the chinese stock market, not the US. ofcrouse the US consummer isnt going to spend for at least another 3 yrs, given thats the time we'll take to take the debt/gdp ratio to around 91% which is what is was bfor the crash. right now its around 120% which is horrible. some eco numbers that help u gauge economy are gdp, pmi(purchasing maufacturers index), retail sales, and labor report(which is lagging data). pmi for china has been above 50 for a while which shows growth. their gdp hasnt been too bad either. ive no idea what gunner's talking abt in terms of "structural problems" in their financials. you could shed more light on that gunner. thanks.
retterimp Posted August 21, 2009 Posted August 21, 2009 this 'recovery' is going to be L-shaped. well there's a new theory that it will be "square root" shaped, which means neither V nor L, but in the middle :cantstop: it will be a recovery type that ppl arent expecting, given some expect V and others expect L
Ram Posted October 5, 2009 Author Posted October 5, 2009 Over ? Far from it. 1). Banks have changed the way they calculate profits and are now free in the way how they evaluate their own assets => the reason why banks have been showing profit. 2).Worldwide stocks fell on Monday, wiping out a lot of gain made over last month or so. 3). Again, the only thing driving stocks up is the sentiment. There is no actual basis for any growth so far. China is gonna go bust in October...you heard it here first. Anyways, the point of bumping this thread wasnt to highlight P_K's prophetic prediction, but to alert everyone to the fact that third quarter numbers for the US economy are going to be out soon. The expectation is that the US will record neutral to slightly positive growth, reversing multiple quarters of negative growth. And since some major European economies and Japan have turned in +ve numbers for the 2nd quarter, this expectation will only be strenghthened. However, the unemployment numbers for September have been quite bad. So, if there any big time stock players out there, this is probably a good time to book some profits. The markets may tank (200-300 pts loss in one day) if 3rd quarter numbers arent good.
Online Posted October 5, 2009 Posted October 5, 2009 Anyways, the point of bumping this thread wasnt to highlight P_K's prophetic prediction, but to alert everyone to the fact that third quarter numbers for the US economy are going to be out soon. The expectation is that the US will record neutral to slightly positive growth, reversing multiple quarters of negative growth. And since some major European economies and Japan have turned in +ve numbers for the 2nd quarter, this expectation will only be strenghthened. However, the unemployment numbers for September have been quite bad. So, if there any big time stock players out there, this is probably a good time to book some profits. The markets may tank (200-300 pts loss in one day) if 3rd quarter numbers arent good. lol at China going bust :D
Recommended Posts