India will be third largest economy by 2050 behind China and US says latest study

[ViruRulez]

NEW YORK: India will be the third largest economy in the world after China and United States by 2050, a US-based internationally recognized foreign-policy think tank has said. An article "The G20 in 2050", carried in November bulletin of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said, "China, India, and the United States will emerge as the world's three largest economies in 2050. Their total GDP, in real US dollar terms, will be over 70% more than that of the other G20 countries combined." Other main findings include, China will become the world's largest economy in 2032, and grow to be 20% larger than the United States by 2050. Over the next forty years, nearly 60% of G20 economic growth will come from Brazil, China, India, Russia, and Mexico alone. The article was written by Uri Dadush and Bennett Stancil. A Frenchman and former director of World Bank, Dadush is the director of the International Economics Programme at the Foundation, and Stancil is a Fellow at the Programme. "In China and India alone, GDP is predicted to increase by nearly $60 trillion--the current world GDP--but the wide disparity in per capita GDP among these three will persist," they noted. India's annual average GDP growth between 2009-2050 is predicted to 6.19 per cent, and these emerging markets will not rise among the world's richest countries in per capita terms- their average income in 2050 will still be 40% below that of the G7 nations presently. Stressing that the world's economic powers are shifting dramatically, the economists noted that the "G20's recent transformation into the world's principal economic forum highlights the beginning of a more integrated and complex economic era." Over the next 40 years, the G20 GDP is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 3.6 per cent, rising from USD 38.3 trillion in 2009 to USD 161.5 trillion in 2050, in real US dollar terms. Nearly 60 per cent of this USD 123 trillion dollar expansion will come from Brazil, Russia, India, China and Mexico (BRIC+M). The experts also find that out of the G20 countries, "India is predicted to grow most rapidly, but its current modest size will prevent it from surpassing either China or the United States in real US dollar terms." The authors observe that the growth could be even faster, but the low quality of education, infrastructure, governance, and business climate will hold back progress in developing countries. Technological convergence is expected to be lower in India and Indonesia than in China and Russia. India's Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) will be 97 per cent as large as that of the United States by 2050. India is expected to become the world's most populous nation in 2031--and an average exchange rate appreciation of 0.9 per cent per year will push annual GDP growth to an average of 6.2 per cent, according to the study. "India's US dollar GDP will balloon to USD 17.8 trillion in 2050, sixteen times its current USD 1.1 trillion level," write Dadush and Stancil. On the future of Europe, the report stresses that "to retain their historic influence, European nations will increasingly need to conduct foreign policy under an EU banner, a shift implied by their recently ratified constitution." It warns that the once great power Russia may be marginalised in the new economic order if it remains outside regional coalitions. Currently, Germany, the UK, France, and Italy are the fourth through seventh largest economies in the world. By 2050, the UK, helped by demographic trends, will be the largest of the four, ranking seventh in the world. Italy will be the smallest, ranking fifteenth. PPP GDP in these four countries will be less than half of that in India and less than one-fourth of that in China, the report finds.

[Guest Gunner]

This is a rehash of the Goldman Sachs BRIC report.

[DomainK]

I will be very old by then, if alive.:((

[Celeste]

Sachin will be hitting 80s by then.

[bright1]

Hmmm thats a good news actualy!

[DomainK]

Sachin will be hitting 80s by then.

Why 80s? He would still be hitting centuries.:D

[flamy]

Why 80s? He would still be hitting centuries.:D

Dominik - the cheapo auction watcher :yousuck: nothing happened in 2012? :sniffle:

[cricketmania]

hmmm thts awesome

[Sachinism]

Sachin will be hitting 80s by then.

Sweet, he'll nearly have a bradmanesque average. Thats what you were you were talking about, right?

[DomainK]

Dominik - the cheapo auction watcher :yousuck: nothing happened in 2012? :sniffle:

2012 will bring destruction. But I will save man kind with super human efforts. That is how mankind will survive. No need to thank me though, it's my duty.:hatsoff:

[ViruRulez]

This is a rehash of the Goldman Sachs BRIC report.

Yup but perhaps the Goldman Sachs BRIC report said that India and China both would move ahead of US by 2050 but this says only China will move ahead of US but India would be just a big behind.. India's PPP will be equal to US by then as per the report.. but it also says that India would overtake China as the most populated country which means that the per capita income of India would still be a lot lesser than the G7 countries... even China's per capita income will be lesser than US or other G7 countries even then

[Ram]

GDP is an irrelevant number. I'd like our name to rise up in the following indices; Per Capita Income Life Expectancy Least corrupt countries Best public services Food self sufficiency Cleanest environment Affordable Health care access to all Political Freedom Business-friendly atmosphere and mant more.. We can expand our GDP/GNP as much as we want, but unless and until we make significant strides in some of the other indices, it means next to nothing. The United States, Europe, Japan, South Korea, S'pore etc will continue to have higher standards of living and comfort for its citizens.

[Celeste]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/3575994.stm

[ViruRulez]

GDP is an irrelevant number. I'd like our name to rise up in the following indices; Per Capita Income Life Expectancy Least corrupt countries Best public services Food self sufficiency Cleanest environment Affordable Health care access to all Political Freedom Business-friendly atmosphere and mant more.. We can expand our GDP/GNP as much as we want, but unless and until we make significant strides in some of the other indices, it means next to nothing. The United States, Europe, Japan, South Korea, S'pore etc will continue to have higher standards of living and comfort for its citizens.

I would also like to see us at the top of the same lists. But at the same time, per capita income of both India and China will also increase significantly till 2050 as predicted almost in every studies but it will still be lesser than than the present G7 countries, Arab Countries, East Asian countries etc. due to obvious reasons. But still it wont be bad. At least extremely poor people would perhaps end or significantly decrease in India till then. But yes disparities between affluent people and people struggling for basic amenities would still remain. However, India becoming the third biggest economy will help it as a country as the status of India and say in world affairs will increase a lot. India's purchasing power will increase as a country and if corruption decreases (which I dont see soon :P ) then the basic amenities like roads, infrastructure, defence, education etc. would be extremely good (because our land mass and areas for development will still be the same). The standard of life overall of India would increase a lot after India becomes an economic superpower and common people would surely benefit a lot. But yes the standard of living would still be lesser than US, big European nations, South Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, rich Arab countries (though till that time the world's oil reserves would perhaps run dry and so Arab nations might not remain rich except innovative countries like UAE) etc. But ulimately everybody will be benefited. To give an example, after independence we were a poor country will people dying of food scarcity, famines, plagues etc. and most of India was below poverty level. But the situation changed with India's development and the number of poor people have decreased significantly. You dont have the big famines or problems. In 1966, there was a famine in Bihar, when the United States allocated 900,000 tons of grain to fight the famine. Three years of drought in India resulted in an estimated 15 lakhs deaths from starvation and disease. Such things wont happen in modern India. So, overall everybody has benefited and will benefit will India's further growth but yes the common people in India, China etc. will still be behind US, European countries etc.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/3575994.stm

[B]Bulgaria could lose 38% of its 7.8m inhabitants, with Russia declining by 17% - some 25m people.[/B]

:omg: How is that possible. Decline in population in a country. Does this mean people will die of starvation, natural disasters etc. Even Russia is expected to lose 17% of its population. How is it possible? If it happens they can contribute the rest of their land to the rest of the world. They already have much more land than they actually need for the citizens. Further decrease in population will create more free land which they should donate to other countries as good gloabal citizens. :winky: