Gordon Brown v David Cameron

[Jadoo]

I am not telling you :yoyo: but I don't expect GB to be in No. 10 tomorrow morning.

lol, yeah for sure, there's a lot of uncertainty in the election, but GB not being there tomorrow is the only thing that is certain.

[Gunner_Mania]

I am looking forward to the results excitedly. Having seen a fair few Indian elections, I find it fascinating that some constiuencies - e.g. Sunderland - practice to be the first to announce results. 48 mins lat time :woot: There are even bets on who will be the first Cabinet minister to lose their seat:)

[Sooda]

well as expected, Cons in the lead, this with 524 of 650 seats declared Conservative 261 Labour 199 Liberal Democrat 40 No majority, as expected, for Messrs dave and friends. Will be interesting to see how the next few days pan out.. Just to make it clear- if there is no absolute majority, do they HAVE to go into coalition with another party...? cant rule with less than the magic 326 mark right?

[Sooda]

Ok this answers my own Q :D Hung parliament: What happens next? If on Friday morning no party has been able to secure an outright majority in the House of Commons, there will be a frantic period of negotiation to decide the shape of the next government. The situation is described as a hung parliament, with no single party having enough MPs - 326 - to win parliamentary votes without the support of members of other parties. Which party is in a position to form the next government will become clear in the following hours or days. Read on for an explanation of the options or see our election outcomes decision tree. WHICH PARTY CAN TRY TO FORM THE GOVERNMENT? Even if the Conservatives gain the most seats, the largest party does not automatically have the right to try to form an administration. WHAT HAPPENS AFTER ELECTION? As the incumbent prime minister, that right is Gordon Brown's. Indeed, it is his duty to stay in office until it becomes clear which party or combination of parties can command the most support in the new parliament. "We must always have a government, and until a new government can be formed the present government carries on," explains Professor Robert Hazell, from the Institute for Government. A similar situation arose in 1974, when Conservative Edward Heath stayed in power for four days after the election trying to put together a coalition even though Labour had more seats. If Mr Brown decides to press ahead, he can then approach some of the smaller parties to ask for support. IF GORDON BROWN REMAINS PRIME MINISTER Two routes are likely to be explored as the prime minister bids to form a new government. Firstly, he can consider forging an alliance with another party or parties to create a coalition. Without a coalition, parties can try to govern on issue-by-issue basis As an alternative, Labour might seek informal agreements with other parties, trying to form majorities in favour of each individual bill as they come up. This may include gaining the agreement of another party not to defeat the government in a no-confidence vote. If coalition is Mr Brown's aim, with Labour likely to need a relatively large number of MPs to vote with them, his first port of call is likely to be the Liberal Democrats. However, it is unlikely that Mr Brown is the only leader negotiating with the Lib Dems, with David Cameron also exploring the option of gaining their backing to form a Conservative-led government. HOW MIGHT AGREEMENT BE REACHED? Professor Hazell says the Liberal Democrats will in effect set the terms of negotiation in these first few days. "They will decide with whom they want to negotiate first," he says, adding that they may speak to both simultaneously. He says they may be able to broadly call the shots on whether they would support a minority government or demand a coalition in return for their backing. Gordon Brown might have to reach across the party divide for support During the election campaign, leader Nick Clegg has repeatedly said the party with the "biggest mandate" should get the right to govern. He did not say how he would define that - whether in terms of the largest number of seats or share of the vote. However, some commentators have interpreted his past comments as suggesting he would not "prop-up" a government led by Mr Brown, while his predecessor Lord Ashdown has suggested his party is "too far apart" from the Conservatives. Mr Clegg has only said that he will push for a "fairer" Britain in terms of taxes, the political system, schooling and banking reform. Dr Tim Bale, lecturer in politics at Sussex University, believes an alliance between the parties describing themselves as "progressive" - Labour and the Lib Dems - is possible. Potentially, he says, they could argue that together they have secured nearly 60% of the vote - if the opinion polls prove to be correct. "The way they could spin it is that the public actually voted Gordon Brown out and didn't necessarily vote a Lib-Lab coalition out. "If the Lib Dems play it cleverly, they can actually present this as the majority solution for Britain and a much more stable solution than a Conservative minority government," he adds. IF GORDON BROWN RESIGNS If the Conservatives fail to win a majority but have a clear lead in terms of the number of seats and share of the vote, it is possible that Gordon Brown could concede defeat and resign as prime minister. The country would not readily forgive them for forcing a second election - the parties will be mindful of that and a deal will be struck Dr Ruth Fox Hansard Society Life under a hung Parliament The tricky business of coalitions Hung parliaments of the past In such circumstances, the Queen would be likely to invite David Cameron - as current Leader of the Opposition - to try to form a government. Whether he seeks to create a coalition is likely to depend on how far short of a majority his party finds itself. If the gap is only a few seats, he may prefer to try to continue with a minority government and seek informal arrangements to get each bill passed. HOW MIGHT AGREEMENT BE REACHED? If the Conservatives have fallen just a few seats short of a majority, Mr Cameron's first port of call might be the unionist parties in Northern Ireland. The Conservatives have already formed an electoral alliance with the Ulster Unionist Party, although it remains unclear how far the Democratic Unionists would go to back the Tories. Dr Tim Bale, politics lecturer at Sussex University, says the DUP's core support is made up of working class voters who would be "badly hit" if the Conservatives withdrew a lot of public spending from the province. During campaigning, the Scottish and Welsh nationalists have ruled out joining a formal coalition. Instead, they see voting on an issue-by-issue basis as their best opportunity to get the best deal for their constituents. David Cameron may have to get Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg on side Again, Mr Bale believes this could present Mr Cameron with difficulties because they are "some way to the left" of the Conservatives. So, Mr Cameron might find himself dealing with Nick Clegg's Liberal Democrats. This would be particularly likely should the Tories require a large number of outside votes to pass bills. Again, if this were the case, Mr Clegg's party might be in a strong position to say whether they would support a minority government or demand a coalition in return for their backing. Electoral reform - a long-standing Lib Dem demand - could still prove a sticking point. The Conservatives are opposed to the idea but might have to concede some ground to strike a deal. The BBC's deputy political editor James Landale says the Tories might agree, for example, to a referendum on reforming the system while reserving the right to campaign against it. However, Mr Bale says even if the Conservatives do manage to form a government, "its durability and stability has to be called into question". "It's not going to have a very big cushion of votes to see it through some very difficult times, [involving] pending cuts obviously but also some of the legislation it wants to put through is going to be quite controversial," he said. BY WHEN MUST THE GOVERNMENT BE FORMED? There is no formal deadline for when an administration must be formed but a key date is 25 May, when the Queen's Speech is due to set out the government's priorities during the parliament. However, Dr Ruth Fox, director of the Hansard Society's parliament and government programme, believes it will be clear within days whether there will be a possibility of a deal between the parties. "That will determine the direction of government," she says. But the finer details of policy might be worked out later. Professor Hazell says that while the public is used to elections being over in a day or so, negotiations to form a government in a hung parliament could take between a week and 10 days. KEY ROLE OF CIVIL SERVANTS Over the first few days, or weeks, of negotiations the role of the civil servants is likely to be crucial in smoothing talks between the parties. Civil servants would help smooth negotiations between parties They would not be allowed to provide policy advice but would be able to show where policy overlaps. Professor Hazell says the civil servants are "very well prepared" to support negotiations between the parties in the event of a hung parliament. Earlier this year, the Cabinet Secretary Gus O'Donnell drew up a document on how civil servants would help with these discussions. In reality, civil servants have long played a part in such discussions, according to Ms Fox. But there is more agreement now on how civil servants could be seconded to parties who are not governing to give details on such matters as economic issues. QUEEN'S SPEECH 25 MAY A minority administration must show it has the confidence of the Commons but the Queen's Speech does not have to be the deadline for negotiations between parties. The administration may put forward a slimmed down legislative programme which it believes is more likely to gain support. But if it loses the vote on the Queen's Speech this would be seen as a "no-confidence" vote and force its resignation. EARLY SECOND ELECTION? If no agreement can be reached between parties and no government was unable to command enough support to get the Queen's Speech through parliament there would be a need for a second election. However, party leaders may not be keen to go to the polls again unless the opinion polls indicate voter intentions have changed markedly. Parties would also consider the fact that another election would be costly financially. Ms Fox adds that "the country would not readily forgive them for forcing a second election" and says the parties, mindful of that, will be likely to strike a deal.

[Sooda]

LOL Nick Griffin stood for MP in barking- Got his back kicked (6000+ votes is still 6000+ votes too many, but i am pretty sure he was expecting better) Labour got 50% of the vote there. :finger: BNP

[Jadoo]

LOL Nick Griffin stood for MP in barking- Got his back kicked (6000+ votes is still 6000+ votes too many, but i am pretty sure he was expecting better) Labour got 50% of the vote there. :finger: BNP

Lol, I was watching when he came for the count he looked all cocky and confident, it all soon disappeared though.

[Jadoo]

Hung Parliament Do we really think it's legitimate for Labour to hold on power with Lib Dem in a coalition when Labour themselves have 2m less votes than conservatives?? It will be very interesting to see the deals that are going to done over the next day or so.

[Gunner_Mania]

This is funny. I can't believe that the Prime Minister can still continue in No.10 and has the choice of whether or not he resigns even though he does not have the mandate. It should be the party with more seats that gets the opportunity to form the government first.

[Jadoo]

This is funny. I can't believe that the Prime Minister can still continue in No.10 and has the choice of whether or not he resigns even though he does not have the mandate. It should be the party with more seats that gets the opportunity to form the government first.

Absolutely, it's complete bizarre, Also, Labour have only managed to hold onto the number of seats they have manily due to Scotland and Wales. Scotland has it's own Parliament, yet get to have a seat at the commons as well. If we look at England on it's own, than Conservatives hold an outright majority.

[Jadoo]

It's quite embarrassing how the election commission were so under prepared. Poeple lining up still to vote at 10pm, short staffing, not having enough ballot papers, getting candidates names wrong. I mean that is pretty pathetic, considering the fact that they would have known turnout would be up from previous years. Am I right in thinking that India has an electronic system of casting votes? I mean if thats works for a population of a billion, than surely it must work here as well.

[Gunner_Mania]

Yes. I was surprised too. I mean results in India where millions of people vote are declared faster than they are in UK due to the electronic voting machines. Also unlike here, the voting is open from about 8 am to 5pm I think and it is a day off from work for people to vote. Out here the polling stations are open from 7 am to 10 pm, there are postal votes and yet there were so many people who couldn't vote. Running out of ballot papers - how can polling stations be so un prepared? Also this coalition government that they are struggling to grapple with is a routine in India. It is a rarity these days having a single party majority, coailition is the norm now rather than the exception.

[Jadoo]

Yes. I was surprised too. I mean results in India where millions of people vote are declared faster than they are in UK due to the electronic voting machines. Also unlike here, the voting is open from about 8 am to 5pm I think and it is a day off from work for people to vote. Out here the polling stations are open from 7 am to 10 pm, there are postal votes and yet there were so many people who couldn't vote. Running out of ballot papers - how can polling stations be so un prepared? Also this coalition government that they are struggling to grapple with is a routine in India. It is a rarity these days having a single party majority, coailition is the norm now rather than the exception.

Thats is interesting, begs the question why the UK electrol commission is not bringing in electronic voting systems. It would definately speed things up. I feel sorry for those who may have had apathy in election process and may not have bothered to vote on previous occasions but actually turned up to caste their vote only to be told that their too late or sorry we have no ballot papers. Personally I would rather liked to have a complete majority for one party, as they say better the devil you know, as we're not too familiar with coalition government, and whenever we have had one it has hardly lasted more than a year or so.

[Sachinism]

I hear our parliament is going to be well hung

[Gunner_Mania]

Personally I would rather liked to have a complete majority for one party, as they say better the devil you know, as we're not too familiar with coalition government, and whenever we have had one it has hardly lasted more than a year or so.

I agree. Coalitions are not the best especially in un certain times such as now, but there should be a system in place that makes it easier for the parties to get into a coalition government rather than this, I don't know who is going to do what and what needs to be done situation. If it is a hung parliament the party with majority seats stakes the claim, becomes a minority government or joins with another party and forms a majority government. This kind of uncertainty gives people like Lord Mandelson to play around and some how try and stick onto power.

[EnterTheVoid]

Gordon Brown to claim victory via the Duckworth Lewis Method :bebored:

[Sooda]

Itll be great if they make Clegg home sec, Cable the chancellor Wont happen in a million years. Would be good though.

[Gunner_Mania]

I don't think Clegg would want anything, he still has dreams of becoming Prime Minister. It will be a big blow to Osborne if Cable becomes the Chancellor. All along he has been projected as the shadow chancellor.

[Jadoo]

Gordon Brown finally does the right thing and steps down, but unfortunately for Labour supporters that not going to be until September!! That means if by any chance Labour and Lib-Dem manage to form a coalition, than that could mean GB could still remain PM. That scenario would be insane!!! http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/gordon-brown/7706876/Gordon-Brown-to-resign-as-Prime-Minister-as-Labour-and-Lib-Dems-prepare-for-talks.html

[asterix]

Tories and Lib Dem talks going no where.. Indian politicians would've formed a coalition govt. by this time..

[Gunner_Mania]

India is used to coalition. They don't know what a coalition is here. It is all fun and entertainment for the news channels sky news