Ashes Betting Discussion/Tips

[goose]

This thread is for discussion/tips on real-world bet markets. I'd like to get people's thoughts on the following. Series Ton Ups 368/388 Series Runs 5650/5850 Series Wickets 155/160 Series Sixes 27.5/29.5 Series Fours 605/630 Highest Team Score 536/548 Lowest All Out Team Score 140/150 Highest Individual Score 186/196 Rabbit Runs 60/70 (Total No.11 runs in series) Off To A Flyer 13/14.5 (Total 1st over runs in series)

[The Outsider]

Without really going into the above bets specifically, one good strategy would be to sell batting bets before the Brisbane test. The match is likely going to be a low scoring one, the market will fall and then you can buy back before the two consecutive tests at Adelaide and Perth, which are going to be high scoring matches.

[goose]

I like that logic. I was thinking of selling Total Series Runs at 5650 - that's 226 runs per day assuming we get 25 days of cricket. This market is offered by www.spreadex.com. It was originally 5780/5980 before a blogger in the Daily Telegraph said it was sale of the century and it got marked lower. Think I'll sell series ton-ups too.

[The Outsider]

I think it's still a good sell. The market is surely going to drop after Brisbane. I don't see more than 1000 runs being scored here. Buy it back before Adelaide and Perth, which might give even 2400 runs put together.

[The Outsider]

Series wickets looks to be a good buy overall. Most likely Brisbane will see 35-40 wickets.

[goose]

That would be a good trade to have alongside being short series runs don't you think? One-sided tests means fewer days of cricket and thus runs, means fewer wickets. edit. perhaps not. series wickets far less volatile on upside.

[goose]

Outsider... Brisbane screwed me. Given current series market is 6050/6250, would you close it now or run with it? 1365 runs in 1st test.

[The Outsider]

Yeah, didn't turn out quite as expected did it? :D Maybe, buying before Adelaide isn't such a bad idea still though. I would be really surprised if Adelaide yields less than 1300 runs.

[goose]

Buying back at 6250 means buying an average of 1220 runs per remaining test. Think i'll run with it and prey for bad weather!

[The Outsider]

I was thinking more along the lines that Adelaide and Perth are seldom disrupted by weather. And unless there is something drastic in the pitch report before the match, 1250-1300 runs is a pretty good lower limit for an Adelaide test. So the market might still go higher before Perth and if Perth is flat again, still higher before Melbourne. At which point you can think of selling.

[Sachinism]

Bet on draw for Adelaide

[goose]

I wonder if that logic can be implemented by trading on the individual tests? Crossing the bid offer in the series market is quite expensive. Here are the markets for 2nd test... 1st Innings Supremacy: Aus/Eng SELL -10 - 10 BUY Match Ton-Ups SELL 120 - 130 BUY Australia Team Ton-Ups SELL 60 - 65 BUY England Team Ton-Ups SELL 60 - 65 BUY VOLCANO: Aus/Eng (total Aus runs over total Eng runs) SELL -7.5 - 7.5 BUY

[The Outsider]

Ton ups look good buys, specially match and England.

[goose]

Yeh agreed. I bot match ton-ups. Should protect me. Thx